Ireland Election 2007

[Јas]

Another effort at a map, this time Sinn Féin...


Strongest, obviously enough, in the border region.
Reasonable showings in the more disadvantaged areas of Dublin.
Some support in Munster, though Ferris's support in Kerry North stands out.
No substantial presence in much of Leinster, the midlands and west of the country.

Mirrors to a great extent the areas of traditional IRA strength, along the Border (which was part of the IRA Northern Command), Dublin and sporadically in Munster.

[Јas]

No matter how much drugs I ingest that table makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. Sort of like Jackie Healy Rae's hair - one of the wonders of the natural(?) world that, no matter how much you look you can't help but think "WTH!?".

K... let me give another attempt at explanation. I analysed the transfers of Labour votes across the election. In doing so, I extrapolated the tabled data by comparing each combination of two parties to see how they did relative to one another in gaining Labour transfers.

For example, the first row is an analysis of how Fianna Fáil did from Labour transfers in comparison to the other parties. For every 1 transfer FF receivede from Labour, Fine Gael received (on average) 2.2, alternative Labour candidtaes got on average 2.98 transfers, the Greens 1.74 etc.

It's (IMO) a reasonable measure of the relative preferences of Labour voters. There's nothing terribly surprising about the data, it shows that Labour voters party preference (from most favoured to least) is: Lab; FG; Grn; Inds; FF; SF; N-T; PD.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

No matter how much drugs I ingest that table makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. Sort of like Jackie Healy Rae's hair - one of the wonders of the natural(?) world that, no matter how much you look you can't help but think "WTH!?".

K... let me give another attempt at explanation. I analysed the transfers of Labour votes across the election. In doing so, I extrapolated the tabled data by comparing each combination of two parties to see how they did relative to one another in gaining Labour transfers.

For example, the first row is an analysis of how Fianna Fáil did from Labour transfers in comparison to the other parties. For every 1 transfer FF receivede from Labour, Fine Gael received (on average) 2.2, alternative Labour candidtaes got on average 2.98 transfers, the Greens 1.74 etc.

It's (IMO) a reasonable measure of the relative preferences of Labour voters. There's nothing terribly surprising about the data, it shows that Labour voters party preference (from most favoured to least) is: Lab; FG; Grn; Inds; FF; SF; N-T; PD.

Ah now I understand. Muchas Gracias. Good SF map btw, nice to see them getting totally pulverised as expected in Dublin South.. and most of the rest of the country. BTW Jas, in your constituency who would be considered SF's (I'm not spelling his name at this hour!) core and marginal vote. It's clearly not the urban poor.. though then again, do they have electricity in Monaghan yet?

[Јas]

Ah now I understand. Muchas Gracias. Good SF map btw, nice to see them getting totally pulverised as expected in Dublin South.. and most of the rest of the country.

Pulverised - yes, but arguably it also demonstrates that they have a great deal of room available to grow and expand. Note the south coast, Wexford and Waterford, for example are not traditional SF/Republican areas. Now very competitive in Donegal and Sligo. While 2007 will represent a blow to SF, it is too early to say whether it will be really detrimental or not in the long-run.

BTW Jas, in your constituency who would be considered SF's (I'm not spelling his name at this hour!) core and marginal vote. It's clearly not the urban poor..

There has long been a solid Republican vote in Monaghan and (but to a lesser extent) Cavan. In 1981, it was for Cavan-Monaghan that Kieran Doherty, then on hunger strike in the Maze Prison, was elected in the General Election - in fact, he very nearly topped the poll. (The only other successful anti-H-block candidate was Paddy Agnew in Louth - another county with very heavy republican activities). And who was Doherty's Director of Elections? Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin.

Ó Caoláin is also a different brand of SF candidate than that found in most other constituencies - very articulate, presentable, respectable background, nothing (too my knowledge) to suggest actual membership/involvement in the IRA. He's been running as a candidate since 1987, when he polled 7.3% (more than 4000 votes) - far more than almost anywhere else in the Republic, indeed this was at a time when SF polled only 11.4% in the North.

In his first three runs, Ó Caoláin failed to break 10%, his vote was fairly static, which would indicate to me that it was the same core Republican vote turning out for him. In 1997, his vote more than doubled - almost hitting 20% and has been solidly so ever since. It seems fairly clear that this increase has come at the expense of Fianna Fáil and Labour. It is (IMO) in fact the urban poor who have shored up the SF vote.

SF have become masterful at getting out votes which other parties ignored. They developed this tactic in the North and in places like Cavan-Monaghan during their normalisation process and have been busy applying it elsewhere, particularly Dublin. Like everywhere else, there are communities in this area which feel they ahve been ignored or sidelined by the establishment. SF can be a powerful community activist group and have proved to these people that they will listen and are willing to work for the local communities, though there methods in tackling anti-social behaviour (though at times very effective) have been...less than civilised. They can and do sort out people's problems, the basic function of politics at a local level.

Looking at local election results, the following are the breakdown of Cavan and Monaghan County Councils. Cavan County Council comprises: FF 11; FG 11; SF 3. Small, but obviously an important 3 votes. Monaghan comprises: FF 5; FG 7; SF 7; Green 1. They are the joint biggest party on the council and from local results it's clear that their vote is an urban one. They are strongest in the largest towns and their rise at this level has been almost entirely at FF's expense.

At this stage, Ó Caoláin is also getting votes as a constituency TD. He is as effective as any other local TD in this regard. Certainly more than some.

So it's on these bases that I would pin the SF vote here, a core republican element, the disaffected and less well off (as a protest vote and as a leftist vote), a solid and active local network and as a constiuency TD.

No other SF TD has this level of back-up which is why his is the safest SF seat.

though then again, do they have electricity in Monaghan yet?

Only very recently, up until now the locals had rejected it as black magic.

Still though, you're doing well for a Dub, recognising there is an Ireland that (at least in some abstract form) does indeed exist beyond the city...

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Ah now I understand. Muchas Gracias. Good SF map btw, nice to see them getting totally pulverised as expected in Dublin South.. and most of the rest of the country.

Pulverised - yes, but arguably it also demonstrates that they have a great deal of room available to grow and expand. Note the south coast, Wexford and Waterford, for example are not traditional SF/Republican areas. Now very competitive in Donegal and Sligo. While 2007 will represent a blow to SF, it is too early to say whether it will be really detrimental or not in the long-run.

BTW Jas, in your constituency who would be considered SF's (I'm not spelling his name at this hour!) core and marginal vote. It's clearly not the urban poor..

There has long been a solid Republican vote in Monaghan and (but to a lesser extent) Cavan. In 1981, it was for Cavan-Monaghan that Kieran Doherty, then on hunger strike in the Maze Prison, was elected in the General Election - in fact, he very nearly topped the poll. (The only other successful anti-H-block candidate was Paddy Agnew in Louth - another county with very heavy republican activities). And who was Doherty's Director of Elections? Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin.

Ó Caoláin is also a different brand of SF candidate than that found in most other constituencies - very articulate, presentable, respectable background, nothing (too my knowledge) to suggest actual membership/involvement in the IRA. He's been running as a candidate since 1987, when he polled 7.3% (more than 4000 votes) - far more than almost anywhere else in the Republic, indeed this was at a time when SF polled only 11.4% in the North.

In his first three runs, Ó Caoláin failed to break 10%, his vote was fairly static, which would indicate to me that it was the same core Republican vote turning out for him. In 1997, his vote more than doubled - almost hitting 20% and has been solidly so ever since. It seems fairly clear that this increase has come at the expense of Fianna Fáil and Labour. It is (IMO) in fact the urban poor who have shored up the SF vote.

SF have become masterful at getting out votes which other parties ignored. They developed this tactic in the North and in places like Cavan-Monaghan during their normalisation process and have been busy applying it elsewhere, particularly Dublin. Like everywhere else, there are communities in this area which feel they ahve been ignored or sidelined by the establishment. SF can be a powerful community activist group and have proved to these people that they will listen and are willing to work for the local communities, though there methods in tackling anti-social behaviour (though at times very effective) have been...less than civilised. They can and do sort out people's problems, the basic function of politics at a local level.

Looking at local election results, the following are the breakdown of Cavan and Monaghan County Councils. Cavan County Council comprises: FF 11; FG 11; SF 3. Small, but obviously an important 3 votes. Monaghan comprises: FF 5; FG 7; SF 7; Green 1. They are the joint biggest party on the council and from local results it's clear that their vote is an urban one. They are strongest in the largest towns and their rise at this level has been almost entirely at FF's expense.

At this stage, Ó Caoláin is also getting votes as a constituency TD. He is as effective as any other local TD in this regard. Certainly more than some.

So it's on these bases that I would pin the SF vote here, a core republican element, the disaffected and less well off (as a protest vote and as a leftist vote), a solid and active local network and as a constiuency TD.

No other SF TD has this level of back-up which is why his is the safest SF seat.

though then again, do they have electricity in Monaghan yet?

Only very recently, up until now the locals had rejected it as black magic.

Still though, you're doing well for a Dub, recognising there is an Ireland that (at least in some abstract form) does indeed exist beyond the city...

Rest of the Country...? I thought it was just a "Father Ted" related theme park for us sophisicated Dubs.  

[Јas]

Another day, another party. Decided to skip a few down the list and go with the CSP.



Note the changes to the performance scale - there's no chance of a CSP gain in Donegal NE or in Dublin Central anytime soon.

Set up in 1997 and essentialy a party with one core principle: anti-abortion. Odd given that abortion laws here and the position of the Medical Council between them mean that effectively abortion doesn't occur here. Rather these positions mean that many thousands of Irish women travel to Britain each year for that purpose. And yet, the paranoid element of the pro-life movement have been operating under the delusion that abortion clinics are about to spring up overnight and so constantly call for referenda to further nail down the legal position.

This is their third general election and things haven't been getting any better for them electorally. They clearly are finding it more difficult to field candidates, this time two candidates doubled up to fight in 2 constituencies. Polling over 1% would have to be considered a good result for them anywhere, a feat they haven't managed to meet this time.

[minionofmidas]

though then again, do they have electricity in Monaghan yet?

Only very recently, up until now the locals had preferred to use black magic.

Post corrected.

[Јas]

though then again, do they have electricity in Monaghan yet?

Only very recently, up until now the locals had preferred to use black magic.

Post corrected.

Now the next in our series of party maps, the Progressive Democrats.



Not a good election for the PDs, obviously. For a party that has been so influential in government for so long, it's quite remarkable that they struggle to run in so many constituencies. The fact that the PDs were going to have a difficult time in this election was no surprise to anyone, indeed I wonder if that wasn't part of the reason why Harney resigned as leader last autumn.

It's a long way down from whence they came. The two people central to the forming of the party were Des O'Malley and Mary Harney, both of whom were expelled by Fianna Fáil in 1985 - O'Malley for refusing to go along with FF (then in opposition) on opposing the liberalisation of contraception laws; Harney for voting in favour of the 1985 Anglo-Irish Agreement. The PDs were established to promote further social and economic liberalism. They soon picked up defections of TDs and/or Senators from FF, FG and Labour.

Heading into their first election in 1987, they had an air of expectation around them which I suppose was similar to the SDP in Britain a few years previously. Similarly, the election result was in some ways a disappointment, but they were clearly relevant. The PDs took 14 seats beating Labour into 3rd place, certainly a very respectable result, but not the breakthrough they were hoping for.

By 1989, their second election, they lost half their vote and more than half their seats. With 6 TDs, they became only the 5th party of the Dáil, behind even the Worker's Party. It seemed clear that the PDs were not going to overhaul the basic 'civil war' politics in the way they hoped. Nonetheless the electoral maths led them to form a government with FF, the first time FF enterd into a coalition government. Though with less seats, their influence multiplied. Arguable their greatest influence during this government was the ending of the Premiership of Haughey, political nemesis of O'Malley.

1992 saw their vote share fall, but seat total rise to 10. This period was spent in opposition first to FF/Lab, then to FG/Lab/Democratic Left. It was during this time that O'Malley resigned as leader and Mary Harney became the first female leader of a major Irish political party. 1997 saw the return of the PDs to government but with only 4 TDs. Their influence though can't be overstated during the next ten years.

Today, just 2 TDs. Limerick East (home of O'Malley) which returned 2 PDs in 1987, now lacks PD Dáil representation. The party is in a sorry state, candidates running for the PDs are as likely to simply be personalities as opposed to principled members - examples are Tom Parlon - foremr head of the Irish Farmer's Association who could have ran under any party in 1997 and probably been elected in his home constituency; Colm O'Gorman - prolific campaigner on matters of child abuse, who ran in Wexford; Frank McNamara - possibly the most remarkable of all, a piano player who worked often on The Late Late Show, who ran in Dublin SC.

The party's existence now seems simply to be an excuse for FF to avoid the problems of the Department of Health, so that their canvassers can point fingers and blame others.

Looking at the map, the non-incumbents were almost all clearly wasting time, polling at around 2-3%. Ciaran Cannon in Galway East the exception, polling as well as many of the incumbents, indeed outpolling the lamentable Mae Sexton (Longford-Westmeath). For the incumbents, the PD performance in Gawlay West astounds, I have no explanation. Again they ran with a multi-candidate strategy (not that they exhibited any sort of credible transfer retention) and again they returned a TD. Grealish there, and Harney both did very, very well.

Many have questioned whether the party has any future. Both Harney and Grealish have FF roots and FF has come a long way since the Haughey days so maybe in the fullness of time, they could return to the fold, though their seats must be considered more valuable under their current designation.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Another day, another party. Decided to skip a few down the list and go with the CSP.



Note the changes to the performance scale - there's no chance of a CSP gain in Donegal NE or in Dublin Central anytime soon.

Set up in 1997 and essentialy a party with one core principle: anti-abortion. Odd given that abortion laws here and the position of the Medical Council between them mean that effectively abortion doesn't occur here. Rather these positions mean that many thousands of Irish women travel to Britain each year for that purpose. And yet, the paranoid element of the pro-life movement have been operating under the delusion that abortion clinics are about to spring up overnight and so constantly call for referenda to further nail down the legal position.

This is their third general election and things haven't been getting any better for them electorally. They clearly are finding it more difficult to field candidates, this time two candidates doubled up to fight in 2 constituencies. Polling over 1% would have to be considered a good result for them anywhere, a feat they haven't managed to meet this time.

Always looking for Positives.. Found them. Though seriously in Ireland there is a market for a real Conservative catholic party (as long as that wasn't it's only focus) but thankfully none of them have any clue how to run a political organization. Remember the CPP and CCCP (no, not the Soviet Union)?

As for the PDs apparently half of their remaining councillors are based in Galway... which may go and explain Grealish's vote but with Harney back at MOH I can only see a total and final wipeout at the next election. Especially if Harney retires (as she said she would). The Party never really had a base outside of South Dublin, Limerick and Galway anyway - and most of that was based on personality or the Dissatisfied FG vote who didn't quite like Fitzgerald and their alliance with the labour party. Most of those are now FF voters anyway.

[Јas]

As for the PDs apparently half of their remaining councillors are based in Galway... which may go and explain Grealish's vote but with Harney back at MOF I can only see a total and final wipeout at the next election. Especially if Harney retires (as she said she would). The Party never really had a base outside of South Dublin, Limerick and Galway anyway - and most of that was based on personality or the Dissatisfied FG vote who didn't quite like Fitzgerald and their alliance with the labour party. Most of those are now FF voters anyway.

Well, not quite half. They have 19 County/City Councillors. 3 are on Galway City Council, 3 on Galway County Council, so 6/19 - a very sizeable chunk nonetheless.

Interestingly enough, today's news is that Harney doesn't want to be party leader. Apparantly Grealish "certainly doesn't want to lead the party". Harney is going to ask the National Executive of the PDs to change the rules to allow for leadership of the party from outside the Oireachtas.

And now for the next of the party performance maps. Spicing things up this time, I've thrown together the 4 hard left parties/groups who partook this time out.



The Socialist Party is the largets of the four and the only one to have had a TD in the last Dáil - Joe Higgins (Dublin MW). The party was estabnlished in the mid-90s splitting away from the Labour party, believing that Labour had moved too close to the centre. Despite having lost their Dáil seat, they still have 4 representatives at the county/city council level (which was an increase of 2 in the 2004 locals). Dublin MW will have to have another TD allocated too it next time out so the chances of a Higgins rebound are not unreasonable. Clare Daly in Dublin North saw her share of the vote fall from 12.5% to 9% this time out. She has come close before and on a good day could snatch a seat there. The party though is likely to struggle without the attention that Higgins could generate from the Dáil, though if they become central in popular protests such as the their 2003 Bin Tax Campaign (where both Daly and Higgins were imprisoned) Higgins may yet stay in the public eye.

The People Before Profit Alliance are essentially the Socialist Worker's Party re-branded (and quite cleverly so IMO). Neither group have ever had any public representation, to my knowledge, though in the 2004 locals they showed improvements. This time out Richard Boyd-Barrett in Dún Laoighaire was one of the surprise packages of the election running the Greens very close.

The Worker's Party were formed in 1970 as the politcal wing of the Official IRA, in the famous split at the start of the Troubles. (Essentially, the Officials wanted to focus on leftist politics, the Provisionals on a united Ireland.) The WP recognised the legitimacy of the Dáil and during the 80s showed some success peaking at 7 TDs in 1989. In 1992, 6 of these TDs left the party abandoning socialism for social democracy (also the links with the Official IRA was a source of discontent) - they formed a new party Democratic Left which would go on to take part in a government with FG and Labour, before eventually merging with the Labour party. (It is noteworthy that both the present Labour leader and deputy leader both came from this background.) The last WP TD lost his seat in 1992 and they've struggled to seriously compete since then. They still have some councillors remaing though they continue to shrink with each election. Presently 2 remain - both in Waterford, which helps explain the above map.

Finally, the Irish Socialist Network. Formed in 2001, it would seem to be a very limited operation. John O'Neill was their only candidate this time out in Dublin NW and would seem to have been their only candidate in the 2004 locals where he made a reasonable effort and may have a prospect next time out.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I found this on Politics.ie.. Lol@the disinformation..

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/opinion/columnists/guests/s_510751.html

I never thought I would see the words "Fine Gael" and "Radical" in the same sentence. FG have always struck me as a party of do-gooder unimaginative lawyers and accountants who fancy themselves to be on an Irish version of the West wing. PDs and "Center-left" is another LOL.

He's right on how little an issue the water in Galway was. I mean FFS all five TDs were returned in Galway West...

Oh, also I found on Politics.ie speculation that Dun Laoghaire will lose a seat at the next election.. or that there may be boundary changes of some sort between DL and Dublin South. Then would be Cuffe Utterly screwed then. Also Carlow-Kilkenny and Laois-Offaly will have to be broken up.

Speaking of Laois-Offaly it looks like Tom Parlon will become the new leader of the PDs.. will this mean that whenever the next by-election is he will be the automatic PD candidate (assuming it's in a rural constituency..) or will he wait until the next election in Laois-Offaly?

It's perhaps best for the PDs should Tom become leader and just shift the party more ruralwards. Ireland throughout it's history has had Farmers' Parties which have just faded away\merged with bigger parties.. so perhaps the new PDs can take off where they left off. I don't see much hope for the PDs in Dublin.. Especially with McDowell and Harney gone\going.

[Colin]

I found this on Politics.ie.. Lol@the disinformation..

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/opinion/columnists/guests/s_510751.html

I never thought I would see the words "Fine Gael" and "Radical" in the same sentence. FG have always struck me as a party of do-gooder unimaginative lawyers and accountants who fancy themselves to be on an Irish version of the West wing. PDs and "Center-left" is another LOL.

I have to say that I feel sorry for my city at this moment, though it was from the Tribune-Review which is pure crap. Fianna Fail is centre left; "Ireland, like most big cities in America, doesn't have a right-wing", oi vey. I really think that Americans should stop writing about international politics since we can never seem to understand the political systems of other countries at all, I mean he could have at least looked on Wikipedia.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

I found this on Politics.ie.. Lol@the disinformation..

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/opinion/columnists/guests/s_510751.html

I never thought I would see the words "Fine Gael" and "Radical" in the same sentence. FG have always struck me as a party of do-gooder unimaginative lawyers and accountants who fancy themselves to be on an Irish version of the West wing. PDs and "Center-left" is another LOL.

I have to say that I feel sorry for my city at this moment, though it was from the Tribune-Review which is pure crap. Fianna Fail is centre left; "Ireland, like most big cities in America, doesn't have a right-wing", oi vey. I really think that Americans should stop writing about international politics since we can never seem to understand the political systems of other countries at all, I mean he could have at least looked on Wikipedia.

He didn't even focus on the issues correctly.. Global warming was hardly mentioned at all throughout the campaign here. The Personal issues of Berrrrttteeeeee's finances were only media filling time for political junkies, very few people imo swung their vote because of it. I say this mainly because Irish voters have a history of not caring whether their politicians are corrupt or not (and those that do don't vote FF.) - after all one of our five Independent TDs is a proven Tax evader and another seems to have helped clients of hers evade tax at her previous job at Allied Irish Bank. This Independent is also a near bankrupt. Thank you Mayo.

Btw Wixted I didn't know you were from Pittsburgh. Ouch.

[Colin]

I found this on Politics.ie.. Lol@the disinformation..

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/opinion/columnists/guests/s_510751.html

I never thought I would see the words "Fine Gael" and "Radical" in the same sentence. FG have always struck me as a party of do-gooder unimaginative lawyers and accountants who fancy themselves to be on an Irish version of the West wing. PDs and "Center-left" is another LOL.

I have to say that I feel sorry for my city at this moment, though it was from the Tribune-Review which is pure crap. Fianna Fail is centre left; "Ireland, like most big cities in America, doesn't have a right-wing", oi vey. I really think that Americans should stop writing about international politics since we can never seem to understand the political systems of other countries at all, I mean he could have at least looked on Wikipedia.

Btw Wixted I didn't know you were from Pittsburgh. Ouch.

Well I'm not from Pittsburgh, I lived for a majority of my life in Chicago, but I've lived in Pittsburgh for the past four years.

[Јas]

I found this on Politics.ie.. Lol@the disinformation..

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/opinion/columnists/guests/s_510751.html

I never thought I would see the words "Fine Gael" and "Radical" in the same sentence. FG have always struck me as a party of do-gooder unimaginative lawyers and accountants who fancy themselves to be on an Irish version of the West wing. PDs and "Center-left" is another LOL.

He's right on how little an issue the water in Galway was. I mean FFS all five TDs were returned in Galway West...

That article is really quite remarkable. I find it ironic that it's titled Irish Foolishness given the author's hesitancy to use any actual facts.

As for Galway West, I'd have thought that had Ó Brolcháin not been Mayor at the time, he could have played on the issue more. It just so happened he was in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Oh, also I found on Politics.ie speculation that Dun Laoghaire will lose a seat at the next election.. or that there may be boundary changes of some sort between DL and Dublin South. Then would be Cuffe Utterly screwed then.

Dún Laoighaire will probably lose a seat or need to be expanded. If the boundary shifts (and it probably will) then it's unlikely to be as simple as lifting a bit of Dublin S, which itself could do with more people. If the seat disappears then Cuffe could certainly be in significant difficulty.

Also Carlow-Kilkenny and Laois-Offaly will have to be broken up.

Not so sure I agree that they will have to be broken up. Depends on what approach the Electoral Commission take on and what data they work.

Dublin N; Dublin W; Louth and both Meath constituencies are more underrepresented than eihter or these two. Each of those may simply be a case of adding a TD and possibly a slight tinker with the boundaries though - nothing so major as what they could do in the two you mention.

At the overrepresented end you've got DL; Cork NC; both Kerry constituencies (could merge); Sligo - Leitrim N; both Limerick constituencies; Dublin S...

I wouldn't foresee drastic changes - though Limerick West could cause problems. Sligo-Leitrim could be back on the table.

Speaking of Laois-Offaly it looks like Tom Parlon will become the new leader of the PDs.. will this mean that whenever the next by-election is he will be the automatic PD candidate (assuming it's in a rural constituency..) or will he wait until the next election in Laois-Offaly?

He probably wants it, but you never know. Can Liz O'Donnell be rules out yet?
Also, will the PDs get one of the Taoiseach's Senate nominees? If that happened, said person could well be favourite.

There'd be no point in the Parlon running in a by-election in the vast majority of places - he simply wouldn't stand a change. I doubt he could even win in Laois-Offaly, I get it hard to see a recovery of his political career such that he returns to the Dáil - unless he becomes PD leader, in which case, he may have a shot at L-O next time out.

Not much point sitting around waiting for by-elections anyway. The most likely one is Flynn in Mayo - in which case it's very hard to look past FG or FF. A lucky Independent maybe, but a PD - no chance.

Beyond that, I note that Caoimghín Ó Caoláin may have suffered his 2nd heart attack this year this morning. Cavan-Monaghan certainly isn't PD friendly even with Parlon's agri-credentials.

It's perhaps best for the PDs should Tom become leader and just shift the party more ruralwards. Ireland throughout it's history has had Farmers' Parties which have just faded away\merged with bigger parties.. so perhaps the new PDs can take off where they left off. I don't see much hope for the PDs in Dublin.. Especially with McDowell and Harney gone\going.

But this would be a fundamental shift in the party ideology. He'd be bettre off starting a new party because he couldn't hope to carry the great majority of PD votes based in the cities - Dublin; Galway; Limerick.

It's been a while since a farmer's party took a seat, the farmer's seem happy to split their vote almost evenly between FF and FG.

[Јas]

The Taoiseach has announced the Junior Ministers today.

Though 2 were announced last week, they were:
Chief Whip: Tom Kitt (FF-Dublin S)
European Affairs: Dick ROche (FF-Wicklow)

The highest ranked Junior Minister is that of the Minister for Children who attends Cabinet. Brendan Smith (FF-Cavan/Monaghan) has been assigned to this role.

The remaining Junior Ministries are as follows:
Health Promotion & Food Safety: Pat Gallagher (FF-Donegal SW)
Fisheries: John Browne (FF-Wexford)
Innovation Policy: Michael Ahern (FF-Cork E)
Office of Public Works: Noel Ahern (FF-Dublin NW)
Equality Issues: Seán Power (FF-Kildare S)
Housing, Urban Renewal and Development Areas: Batt O'Keefe (FF-Cork NW)
Environment and Energy: Tony Killeen (FF-Clare)
Integration Policy: Conor Lenihan (FF-Dublin SW)
Forestry: Mary Wallace (FF-Meath E)
Lifelong Learning, Youth Work and School Transport: Seán Haughey (FF-Dublin NC)
Overseas Development: Michael Kitt (FF-Galway E)
Food and Horticulture: Trevor Sargent (Grn-Dublin N)
Drugs Strategy and Community Affairs: Pat Carey (FF-Dublin NW)
Labour Affairs: Billy Kelleher (FF-Cork NC)
Trade and Commerce: John McGuinness (FF-Carlow/Kilkenny)
Disability Issues and Mental Health: Jimmy Devins (FF-Sligo/Leitrim N)
Older People: Máire Hoctor (FF-Tipperary N)

[Јas]

Another map
Though the phrase scrapping the bottom of the barrel comes to mind...



Clearly not groups likely to take over government any time soon.

The Father's Rights-Responsibility Party is the newest registered party here. They failed to make the deadline for the election, so their candidates were not on the ballot as FRR members. The group originally hoped to run in all constituencies - obviously that plan didn't quite come together. The party aim is simply to increase father's rights - it's hard to see how running i elections will help them achieve this rather than as a lobby group. We'll have to wait and see what sort of future they have. Probably the most interesting moment of the campaign re: FRR was when the Louth returning officer refused to allow the candidate Liam Ó Gógáin to have his occupation put down as 'Father and College Lecturer' on the ballot paper.

The Immigration Control Platform are a non-registered group whose membership size is unknown. What is clear is that their support is less than spectacular. Nothing surprising about their message either - too much immigation; abusing the welfare system; Ireland = soft touch; burden on economy, etc, etc. The message clearly didn't resonate with the masses and all 3 ICP candidates lost their deposits.

Noel O'Gara or The Planning Reform Party, as he likes to be known when running for election, is a property developer who is engaged in a dispute with Dublin City Council over a green space park in Dartmouth Square, in Dublin SE. O'Gara claims ownership of the Square because Dublin CC didn't renew their lease back in 1997. He wants to build a car park on the site and has been at loggerheads with the Council since the start of the year. In order to show that the people were on his side, O'Gara ran in 4 constituencies, Dublin SE where the site is; Roscommon-Leitrim S where he is from originally; Longford-Westmeath where his business is based; and Laois-Offally just because he can. With an impressive 27 votes, he never threatened a Dublin SE seat. He further managed 45 in Laois-Offaly; 66 in Roscommon-Leitrim S; and 84 in Longford-Westmeath. A grand total of 222 people clearly backing O'Gara's call for mass liberalisation of the planning laws, though not enough to help him regain his deposit or the time wasted on his electoral effort.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The Taoiseach has announced the Junior Ministers today.

Though 2 were announced last week, they were:
Chief Whip: Tom Kitt (FF-Dublin S)
European Affairs: Dick ROche (FF-Wicklow)

The highest ranked Junior Minister is that of the Minister for Children who attends Cabinet. Brendan Smith (FF-Cavan/Monaghan) has been assigned to this role.

The remaining Junior Ministries are as follows:
Health Promotion & Food Safety: Pat Gallagher (FF-Donegal SW)
Fisheries: John Browne (FF-Wexford)
Innovation Policy: Michael Ahern (FF-Cork E)
Office of Public Works: Noel Ahern (FF-Dublin NW)
Equality Issues: Seán Power (FF-Kildare S)
Housing, Urban Renewal and Development Areas: Batt O'Keefe (FF-Cork NW)
Environment and Energy: Tony Killeen (FF-Clare)
Integration Policy: Conor Lenihan (FF-Dublin SW)
Forestry: Mary Wallace (FF-Meath E)
Lifelong Learning, Youth Work and School Transport: Seán Haughey (FF-Dublin NC)
Overseas Development: Michael Kitt (FF-Galway E)
Food and Horticulture: Trevor Sargent (Grn-Dublin N)
Drugs Strategy and Community Affairs: Pat Carey (FF-Dublin NW)
Labour Affairs: Billy Kelleher (FF-Cork NC)
Trade and Commerce: John McGuinness (FF-Carlow/Kilkenny)
Disability Issues and Mental Health: Jimmy Devins (FF-Sligo/Leitrim N)
Older People: Máire Hoctor (FF-Tipperary N)

Here I was under the perception that the Greens would get two Junior ministries... and I love the way some of those appointments seem to make no logical sense (to a Irish political novice) whatsoever.. like Batt O'Keefee in Housing & Urban Renewal.. I imagine not the biggest of issues down in Cork North West but then again what do I know?

At least the media didn't kick up a fuss about Sean Haughey not getting a major cabinet position again.. god that was embrassing the last time that happened. The way RTE reported it you think there were riots in Artane thanks to Bertie once again neglecting the beloved son of the old wise benevolent old Fianna Fail leader....

As for the Boundaries I would like to see more five seaters, especially in North Dublin. Three Seaters always seem to benefit FF due to some strange bizarre magical Fianna Fail logic (which like all things Fianna Fail, or Irish for that matter, seems to contain no logic whatsoever.)

I saw no campaigning by the FRR in Dublin South.. though I spent alot of my time in Offaly during the campaign. (Black Magic long abandoned... They even speak proper English there!) and I wonder how many people put O'Gara down just "for the laugh, like". I bet 221.

An Independant Candidate here down in L-O may have gotten nowhere near elected but definetly won "the best hair" award, "most unspiring and inspiring slogan" award and "best all round Poster award". As well as having a great Election song. A round of applause to John Bracken (Pity I can't find any examples of the posters...)

[Јas]

Here I was under the perception that the Greens would get two Junior ministries... and I love the way some of those appointments seem to make no logical sense (to a Irish political novice) whatsoever.. like Batt O'Keefee in Housing & Urban Renewal.. I imagine not the biggest of issues down in Cork North West but then again what do I know?

O'Keefe's base in Gurranbraher was moved to Cork NW from North Central - I think it's the largest housing estate in Cork.

At least the media didn't kick up a fuss about Sean Haughey not getting a major cabinet position again.. god that was embrassing the last time that happened. The way RTE reported it you think there were riots in Artane thanks to Bertie once again neglecting the beloved son of the old wise benevolent old Fianna Fail leader....

As for the Boundaries I would like to see more five seaters, especially in North Dublin. Three Seaters always seem to benefit FF due to some strange bizarre magical Fianna Fail logic (which like all things Fianna Fail, or Irish for that matter, seems to contain no logic whatsoever.)

Yep, 3 seaters massively favour FF and FG.

I saw no campaigning by the FRR in Dublin South.. though I spent alot of my time in Offaly during the campaign. (Black Magic long abandoned... They even speak proper English there!) and I wonder how many people put O'Gara down just "for the laugh, like". I bet 221.

An Independant Candidate here down in L-O may have gotten near elected but definetly won "the best hair" award, "most unspiring and inspiring slogan" award and "best all round Poster award". As well as having a great Election song. A round of applause to John Bracken (Pity I can't find any examples of the posters...)

Speaks for itself, really...

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Class. Though I personally prefer the slogan he used in this poster here, which I can't directly show.. just click on the link.

http://greeninkpen.blogspot.com/2007/05/john-bracken-your-independent-candidate.html

[Јas]

From ireland.com

Parties got €13m from Exchequer in 2006

Figures released today show that the six main political parties received nearly €13 million in funding from the Exchequer last year.

Six parties qualify for State funding under the Electoral Acts: Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, Labour, the Green Party, the Progressive Democrats and Sinn Féin. According to figures from the Standards in Public Office Commission, the parties received €5,210,706 under the provisions of this act last year.

According to the Electoral Acts, this funding must be used for "general administration of the party; research, education and training; policy formulation and the co-ordination of the activities of the branches and members of the party".

The six parties are also eligible for the Party Leaders' Allowance, as was the Socialist Party. These allowances totalled €7,517,281 in 2006.

This allowance is intended to be used to pay for expenses arising from the parliamentary activities, including research, of the party.

Fianna Fáil was the largest beneficiary, receiving €4,903,423 in total from the two funds last year. Fine Gael got €3,364,921; Labour was given €2,082,391, and the Progressive Democrats received €835,358. The Green Party got funding of €704,436, with Sinn Féin receiving €773,246.

The Socialist Party's sole TD in the last Dail, Joe Higgins, benefited to the tune of €64,212 last year under the Party Leaders Allowance.

Independent TDs received €514,158 under the Leaders Allowance scheme, while Independents in the Seanad availed of €104,970.

By law, none of the funding is subject to income tax, and it may not be used for electoral or referendum purposes.

Figures for party expenditure show Fianna Fail spent €228,174 of their Party Leaders Allowance on transport for party members last year, compared to €46,959 by Fine Gael, €8,380 by Labour, €885 by the Greens and nil by both the PDs and Sinn Féin. Joe Higgins spent €151 of his allowance on transport.

The PDs were the largest spenders of state money on entertainment, using €5,059 of their grant for the purpose last year. Labour spent €4,107, followed by Fianna Fáil on €2,854. None of the other parties spent any public money on entertainment.


Also today Liz O'Donnell has announced she won't seek the leadership of the PDs, leaving Tom Parlon the clear favourite for the position.

[Јas]

Beverley Flynn(Ind-Mayo) has come to a settlement with RTÉ over her €3m legal costs. RTÉ recently issued proceedings that would have officially declared her bankcrupt and so indirectly caused her to be unseated. This prospect now seems to be averted. The sum total of the settlement has not yet been released though we know that Flynn made an offer of €600,000 previously that was rejected.


Finally, for all you devoted readers of the Ireland Election 2007 thread who feared this was the end of Irish parliamentary elections - fear not. The Upper House election is almost upon us. The Seanad (Irish for Senate) elections are upcoming - unfortunately it's construction and operation and well, just about everything to do with the Seanad is woefully inadequate.

The Seanad has 60 seats and elections are held usually a month after whenever Dáil elections occur. However, the elections are not by popular mandate. Of the 60 seats, 43 are elected via the Panel System. The electorate consists of incoming TDs, outgoing Senators, and County and City Councillors. They elect persons nominated (either by political parties or by certain proscribed interest groups) onto one of the five panels: Agriculture; Labour; Industry & Commerce; Cultural & Education; and Administrative. In theory those nominated should have an expertise or experience in the respective fields, in practice, it is little more than a complex facade.

3 seats are elected by graduates of the University of Dublin, better known as Trinity College. A further 3 seats are elected by graduates of the National University of Ireland - in any of it's four constituent colleges of Dublin (better known as UCD); Cork (better known as UCC); Maynooth; and Galway.

Finally, just to completely screw up things further the sitting Taoiseach directly appoints the remaining 11 Senators - effectively ensuring the government will have a majority in the Senate. Only during the period period of the last Rainbow government (FG/Lab/Democratic Left) (1994-97) was an opposition Seanad in place because the government formed without a new election. Even then, the Seanas presented no real difficulties as it's powers are extremely limited by the Constitution. At best they can hope to delay a bill for 90 days.

Usually the Seanad contains a mixture of both rising and falling political figures as well as the odd eccentric - David Norris (Ind-Trinity) for example.

The elections whether from the Panels or by the various graduates are still held by PR-STV. Anyway, I'll probably provide a few updates on these elections.

For the record, the outgoing (22nd) Seanad was constituted as follows:
FF 28
FG 15
Ind 7
Lab 5
PD 5

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The Seanad is just a dumping ground for old defeated Fianna Fail politicians who are just too unpopular to bother with the presidency and David Norris.

Back when the PDs actually stood for something, an elected Seanad was one of their supposed aims. Ah well. The organization is a complete mess - apparently there is an 118 year old women able to vote on the UOD register.. and that's only the start of it.

BTW I got harassed by a bunch of pro-lifers in town today, telling me to sign their partition against Abortion. Which is very, very illegal here.. here the important part. Most pro-lifers seem to think abortion is ok as long as it happens outside of Ireland... which is something of a relief I find. Ah, Pro-lifers Ireland's most vocal minority (usually bitching about how all the other minorities get alot of attention..)

[Јas]

The Seanad is just a dumping ground for old defeated Fianna Fail politicians who are just too unpopular to bother with the presidency and David Norris.

Back when the PDs actually stood for something, an elected Seanad was one of their supposed aims.

Seanad reform is probably the oldest continuous topic of political discussion about which nothing has ever been done and about which nothing is ever likely to happen.

BTW I got harassed by a bunch of pro-lifers in town today, telling me to sign their partition against Abortion. Which is very, very illegal here.. here the important part. Most pro-lifers seem to think abortion is ok as long as it happens outside of Ireland... which is something of a relief I find. Ah, Pro-lifers Ireland's most vocal minority (usually bitching about how all the other minorities get alot of attention..)

The pro-life lobby do seem remarkably paranoid considering the status of the constitution and the position of the Medical Council. They act as if abortion may suddenly be legalised at any given moment. I've never really understood why they maintain the levels of anxiety they do in this regard.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The Seanad is just a dumping ground for old defeated Fianna Fail politicians who are just too unpopular to bother with the presidency and David Norris.

Back when the PDs actually stood for something, an elected Seanad was one of their supposed aims.

Seanad reform is probably the oldest continuous topic of political discussion about which nothing has ever been done and about which nothing is ever likely to happen.

BTW I got harassed by a bunch of pro-lifers in town today, telling me to sign their partition against Abortion. Which is very, very illegal here.. here the important part. Most pro-lifers seem to think abortion is ok as long as it happens outside of Ireland... which is something of a relief I find. Ah, Pro-lifers Ireland's most vocal minority (usually bitching about how all the other minorities get alot of attention..)

The pro-life lobby do seem remarkably paranoid considering the status of the constitution and the position of the Medical Council. They act as if abortion may suddenly be legalised at any given moment. I've never really understood why they maintain the levels of anxiety they do in this regard.

It's the remnants of the old hardcore uber-Catholics holding dearly unto the last piece of legization in Ireland still clearly influenced by Church policy... never mind the vast majority of Irish people are opposed to abortion anyway and it would never pass a referendum but have to campaign about something, can't write letters to the Irish Times about the godlessness of modern Irish Society, materialism and decadence every single bloody day.