Ireland Election 2007

[Democratic Hawk]

In short, I've no idea. On the numbers alone, SF are a conceivable target for FF, but they've continuously ruled them out as unsuitable, even since the election.

Seems to me that SF are the "Billy no mates" of Irish politics

Dave

No party wants to be labeled as terrorists, and SF's hard left policies don't help matters.

SF is the last Irish political party I'd support be it in the Republic or Northern Ireland

Dave

[afleitch]

While it's difficult to make these sorts of things, I thought I'd give it a go.

[Јas]

Seems to me that SF are the "Billy no mates" of Irish politics

Yeah, absolutely.

No party wants to be labeled as terrorists, and SF's hard left policies don't help matters.

True. But the fact that they're in government up North with the DUP means that the parties here can't really use the whole they're terrorist bad guys argument.

That's why FF have, for the last year or two, been using their hard left economic policies as their official reason. However, coming into this election, SF effectively dropped all of their radical economic positions, in a brazen attempt to make themselves suitable for FF. It's getting more and more difficult for the mainstream parties to come up with official reasons why SF aren't an option.

SF is the last Irish political party I'd support be it in the Republic or Northern Ireland

Oh, I think anyone who is familiar with your posts could've taken this one for granted.

[Јas]

Kudos, afleitch

Just to point to one or two things to point out to persons generally...
On the FF map, the stand out constituency is Mayo (in light green on the upper-left). The reason it's so light, is that a 9.5% of the voters there voted for Beverley Flynn (Ind) who was forced out of FF during the last term following a successful libel action against her (which incidentally could yet force her to lose her seat this term if RTÉ get an award of costs against her). The Flynn voters are FF voters in normal circumstances, if anything they are ultra-FF voters.

Adding Flynn to the Mayo FF vote, the map becomes remarkably uniform in terms of support for any party on a national scale.

On the point of psudo-Independent candidates, all parties have them - for example, the reason why North Tipperary (not far south of centre) on the FG map is so pale is because of an 'Independent' - Michael Lowry (the most significant FG figure to fall for reasons of corruption/tax evasion). Adding his 30% of the vote would make it one of FG's strongest constituencies.

[Upsilon]

And why not a FF + FG coalition ?

On economic issues, these parties seem to be the closest (According wikipedia, both are centrist parties...)

From outside, such a coalition seems to be most logical...

[Hash]

I agree with you that I can't see any apparent difference between FF and FG, but such a coalition would be like a UMP-PS coalition in France. See what I mean?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And why not a FF + FG coalition ?

Because there were on opposite sides (no... they were the opposite sides) in a civil war ages ago.

Or something like that.

[Јas]

And why not a FF + FG coalition ?

On economic issues, these parties seem to be the closest (According wikipedia, both are centrist parties...)

From outside, such a coalition seems to be most logical...

From outside, I'd wager that many things about Ireland seem illogical

Yes, both FF and FG are fairly centrist in the economic policies and I'd suggest, on the whole, fairly similar on social issues.

Only on the position to the North (and to an extent Britain) has there consistently been a noticeable divergence - and even on that, I don't think that it is really very significant anymore - and certainly isn't the reason why they wouldn't go into coalition.

On a general level, FF (as essentially always having been the largest party) will look to find just enough TDs such that a majority can be put in place - ideological compatibility is (largely, though not absolutely) a secondary consideration. In the current instance, there are at least 3 or 4 possible options which achieve that aim before FG.

The numbers are a consideration, but certainly not the entire reason why FF and FG have never formed a coalition. That is a matter of history. I presume from reading the wiki articles you're familiar with both parties origins. The Civil War still casts a shadow over Irish politics. If you were to examine the names of FG and FF members of the Dáil from the 30s, you'd find that many of their grandsons and granddaughters were contesting the election last week. It's my opinion that it may well be that other remnant of the Civil War - Sinn Féin - which could eventually force them together. (That would be dependent on SF remaining politically untouchable but also a growing force in the Dáil.)


For further on the differences between the two, I'd refer you to another part of this thread - here.

[minionofmidas]

Seems to me that SF are the "Billy no mates" of Irish politics

Yeah, absolutely.

No party wants to be labeled as terrorists, and SF's hard left policies don't help matters.

True. But the fact that they're in government up North with the DUP means that the parties here can't really use the whole they're terrorist bad guys argument.

Anyways, who leads Labour? The Official IRA does, that's who.

[minionofmidas]

It's doubtful whether FG's status as Ireland's second party could survive a coalition with FF. After all, what would be the point of voting for them?

[Јas]

Seems to me that SF are the "Billy no mates" of Irish politics

Yeah, absolutely.

No party wants to be labeled as terrorists, and SF's hard left policies don't help matters.

True. But the fact that they're in government up North with the DUP means that the parties here can't really use the whole they're terrorist bad guys argument.

Anyways, who leads Labour? The Official IRA does, that's who.

It's doubtful whether FG's status as Ireland's second party could survive a coalition with FF. After all, what would be the point of voting for them?

There is a view held by some on the left which believes that a FF/FG coalition would be the best thing that could happen for the Irish left in the long run. Not sure how much I buy into it, but I see where they're coming from.

[minionofmidas]

What's it saying in the first line of the larger poster?

[minionofmidas]

AARGH. Someone removed the constituency results from Aertel already. And I wanted to do a little study on transfers... Nevermind, found em in a very nice format.

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There is a view held by some on the left which believes that a FF/FG coalition would be the best thing that could happen for the Irish left in the long run. Not sure how much I buy into it, but I see where they're coming from.
[/quote]FG's loss would not necessarily the Left's gain. Even a Left vote gain would be worthless if FF enjoyed a perpetual majority. At least nowadays, there's a hope to join coalitions from time to time. (Not to mention that both FF and FG have to take attention not to lose too many of their more leftish-inclined supporters.)

[Јas]

What's it saying in the first line of the larger poster?

"Down with this sort of thing"
It's taken from one of the most memorable scenes in the wonderful Father Ted.

AARGH. Someone removed the constituency results from Aertel already. And I wanted to do a little study on transfers...

Still available on RTÉ Online. Click on the constituency and then on the link to details of the count.

Should also be able to get count details from The Irish Times website (ireland.com).

At some point I'm sure electionsireland.org will get the transfers and a bit of analysis on them up, as they did in 2002.

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There is a view held by some on the left which believes that a FF/FG coalition would be the best thing that could happen for the Irish left in the long run. Not sure how much I buy into it, but I see where they're coming from.

FG's loss would not necessarily the Left's gain. Even a Left vote gain would be worthless if FF enjoyed a perpetual majority. At least nowadays, there's a hope to join coalitions from time to time. (Not to mention that both FF and FG have to take attention not to lose too many of their more leftish-inclined supporters.)
[/quote]

True.

[Democratic Hawk]

Anyone know where I could find out more about which demographic groups favor which party?

My guess would be that FF has a plurality among most demographics given that it seems to be the most 'national' of the major parties

Also, I read on wiki that FG has a Christian Democrat majority and a social democrat minority though she prefers to be defined as a progressive centrist party. Any truth in the CD/SD 'split'?

Dave

[afleitch]

Labour now, with a different scale to the colour scheme.

[Јas]

Anyone know where I could find out more about which demographic groups favor which party?

My guess would be that FF has a plurality among most demographics given that it seems to be the most 'national' of the major parties

Lansdowne Market Research carried out the (very accurate) exit poll for RTÉ. They also asked many other questions which may help answer your question. Their website is here. You can download the data under the Exit Poll Full Results link.

Also, I read on wiki that FG has a Christian Democrat majority and a social democrat minority though she prefers to be defined as a progressive centrist party. Any truth in the CD/SD 'split'?

It's fair to say that it has a Christian Democratic majority but that there is a social democratic element (last really exemplified in the leadership of Garret Fitzgerald during the 80s).

(FF would also have persons who could be described as both Christian Democratic and Social Democratic, though there I would suggest that the Christian Democratic streak is quite a bit weaker.)

It's no really an issue though and certainly the word 'split' would be going too far. FF and FG are both 'big tent' parties. It's also worth bearing in mind that every time that FG has been in government it has been along with Labour - who obviously have some social democrats (and o/c persons further to the left) on board. So eschewing any social democrats within FG would be rather silly, if social democrats in another party are essential to FG ever being in government.

Never actually heard the 'progressive centrist' description before. For both FF and FG defining the party's ideology has only ever been of any significance when they find themselves with a leader who actually has a very definable ideology - Fitzgerald being an example.

Actually, the Irish politician who I would say you would be ideologically closest to is Gay Mitchell (FG) - wants FG to be avowedly Christian Democratic in nature; as sympathetic to Northern Unionists as any serious Irish politician gets; uneasy about Sinn Féin; also about as 'hawkish' on defence/foreign affairs as any mainstream  Irish politician is.

[minionofmidas]

These are vote totals to be transferred away from candidates of the party in question, with no distinction drawn between elimination and surplus redistribution.

County Dublin
FF:  to FF 16,938; to Labour 4746; to PD 3595; to FG 2990; to GP 2522; to others/indies 2147; to SF 673; exhausted 2461
FG: FG 14,956; Labour 4739; GP 4204; others/indies 1655; FF 873; SF 643; PD 89; exhausted 1071
Labour: Labour 3605; GP 3595; FG 2789; FF 649; PD 222; others/indies 157; SF 73; exhausted 864
SF: Labour 5817; FF 3792; GP 2573; FG 1861;  others/indies 1622; PD 296; exhausted 3349
GP: Labour 3526; FG 2824; GP 1159; others/indies 1221; FF 830; SF 721; exhausted 796
PD: FG 3407; FF 3017; GP 1934; Labour 891; others/indies 575; SF 10; exhausted 1224
others/indies: GP 6027; Labour 5228; SF 3195; FG 2680; others/indies 2146; FF 2070; PD 644; exhausted 2289
multiple eliminations (involving more than one party): others/indies 5974; Labour 3515; FF 3072; FG 2617; SF 823; GP 811; PD 74; exhausted 2742

Notice that redistributing votes to party x is subject to the availability of not yet elected, not yet eliminated candidates of party x.
FG's win among PD voters is entirely attributable to the fact that there was no FF candidate left when Liz McDowell was eliminated. Other win among multiple eliminations is entirely attributable to the double elimination of Labour and Green candidates in Fenian McGrath's constituency. There's probably other such trip-ups involved.

Connacht & Ulster
FF: FF 2726; others/indies 1961; SF 1566; FG 758; Labour 96; GP 81; PD 47; exhausted 817
FG: FF 7611; FG 4049; PD 1922; others/indies 1172; Labour 328; SF 155; GP 113; exhausted 3382
Labour: FG 2388; FF 665; others/indies 449; PD 228; exhausted 224
SF: FF 5921; FG 4925; others/indies 2805; Labour 564; GP 333; PD 176; exhausted 2619
GP: Labour 2911; FG 1260; FF 699; SF 398; PD 176; others/indies 90; exhausted 584
PD: FF 2854; FG 1920; Labour 430; others/indies 327; GP 161; SF 4; exhausted 428
indies/others: FG 8000; FF 5824; indies/others 1648; Labour 1355; GP 762; PD 296; SF 265; exhausted 3171
multiple eliminations: FG 10,930; FF 3893; SF 2307; others/Indies 1137; Labour 373; Greens 242; PD 126; exhausted 2402
 
Same caveats as above.

[Democratic Hawk]

Anyone know where I could find out more about which demographic groups favor which party?

My guess would be that FF has a plurality among most demographics given that it seems to be the most 'national' of the major parties

Lansdowne Market Research carried out the (very accurate) exit poll for RTÉ. They also asked many other questions which may help answer your question. Their website is here. You can download the data under the Exit Poll Full Results link.

Thanks Jas. I'll take a gander

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It's fair to say that it has a Christian Democratic majority but that there is a social democratic element (last really exemplified in the leadership of Garret Fitzgerald during the 80s).

(FF would also have persons who could be described as both Christian Democratic and Social Democratic, though there I would suggest that the Christian Democratic streak is quite a bit weaker.)

It's no really an issue though and certainly the word 'split' would be going too far. FF and FG are both 'big tent' parties. [/quote]

Guess, I might be at home in either party then. No seriously, I have always thought of FF as being a reactionary party (not sure why) so that kind of rules them out. My Irish kin (the Flynn's) left Ireland before the Irish Free State came into existence so it's not like I'm ancestrally tied to either party, or their predecessor parties, like I am with the US Democrats.

I do know that they were Labour in the UK, my great-uncle being the exception. He was one of Oswald Moseley's 'Black Shirts', though I heard he was only in so far as they paid him to hand-out flyers

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I've always considered myself a centre-left-cum-centrist so a FG-Lab coalition is probably my kind of government

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On its website, FG defines itself a party of the progressive centre, which does what is right for Ireland regardless of dogma and ideology. I must admit that appeals to me

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Seems possible

Of course, following this election, I've came across John Deasy, who, though I say it myself, is a definite freedom fighter . That said, given his party's gains, he'd be pretty stupid to challenge Enda Kenny for the leadership. There's no need in politics for young men to be in such a hurry!

Dave

[Јas]

Of course, following this election, I've came across John Deasy, who, though I say it myself, is a definite freedom fighter . That said, given his party's gains, he'd be pretty stupid to challenge Enda Kenny for the leadership. There's no need in politics for young men to be in such a hurry!

Controversial. I take it you're not looking forward to 1 July.

Yes, Mr. Deasy said months before the election that if Kenny didn't become Taoiseach, that he would challenge him for the leadership. A foolish decision to announce publicly.

Kenny has come very close, and there seems to be solid backing for him in the party. I haven't heard anything about Deasy since, but he would have probably taken complete leave of his senses if he challenges in the short term. Even if Kenny went, Deasy simply wouldn't stand a chance.

[Јas]

Some details from the Lansdowne Market Research Exit Poll

First Preference Voting by Gender
[Party: Male; Female]
FF: 42; 42
FG: 27; 25
Lab: 10; 10
SF: 8; 6
Grn: 4; 5
PD: 2; 3
Oth: 6; 8

Not a great deal of divergence between the genders. Would've expected greater male dominance of the SF vote and vice versa for the Greens.

First Preference Voting by Age
[Party: 18-24; 25-34; 35-49; 50-64; 65+]
FF: 35; 39; 40; 45; 49
FG: 24; 23; 25; 29; 31
Lab: 12; 9; 10; 9; 10
SF: 11; 10; 8; 6; 2
Grn: 8; 8; 5; 2; 2
PD: 3; 3; 3; 2; 2
Oth: 6; 7; 8; 7; 5

Very clear correlation between age and support for FF and FG and inversely for SF and the Greens.

First Preference Voting by Class
[Party: ABC1; C2DE; F]
FF: 40; 43; 44
FG: 26; 22; 44
Lab: 12; 9; 6
SF: 5; 11; 4
Grn: 7; 3; 0
PD: 3; 2; 1
Oth: 7; 8; 2

Don't really know much about the class based categorisation used, but my broad understanding is that ABC1 is essentially the middle class; C2DE - the working class; and F are farmers.

Clearly FF and FG dominate the farmers block and you can see how difficult getting Green votes is in rural constituencies. Traditionally, FG would be associated with larger farmers and FF smaller, but I don't have anything substantial to back that up.

Some have been saying that this election marks something of a shift for Labour towards becoming a more middle class leftist party. There's no doubt that SF are becoming very competitive in the least well off urban areas. The greens are obviously a softer-more middle class-leftist vote.

First Preference Voting by Region
[Party: Dublin; Munster; Leinster; Connaught-Ulster]
FF: 36; 46; 45; 41
FG: 17; 28; 28; 34
Lab: 14; 11; 9; 5
SF: 7; 6; 5; 11
Grn: 9; 4; 3; 3
PD: 4; 2; 2; 2
Oth: 12; 3; 4; 5

West of the Shannon, the ball game is dominated by FF and FG.
SF strongest in the border region, I'm actually a little surprised they aren't doing better in Dublin.

Plenty more data within the Exit Poll details. I'll get around to putting some more up in the next day or two.

[Democratic Hawk]

Of course, following this election, I've came across John Deasy, who, though I say it myself, is a definite freedom fighter . That said, given his party's gains, he'd be pretty stupid to challenge Enda Kenny for the leadership. There's no need in politics for young men to be in such a hurry!

Controversial. I take it you're not looking forward to 1 July.

No

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Quite. In fact some commented that Deasy made these remarks in so far to damage Kenny's chances in the general; thereby, allowing him to go for it. Much of what I've read was scathing, people commenting on blogs that Deasy would do himself more good working to get a second FG TD elected in Waterford

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Given the recovery enjoyed by FG, I expect Kenny will lead the party at the next general (be it sooner or later). Of course, should FG lose ground, then his position becomes untenable

Deasy seems to be a bit of a maverick (I gather his father, Austin, was before him) and to even stand a chance at some stage in the future, he needs to rehabilitate himself with the leadership (in other words, return to the front bench). Apparently, in the wake of his sacking, Deasy was courted by other parties but declined

Now there's something about Irish politics, bit of a 'familyarchy' isn't it?

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Thanks for the exit poll data

Dave

[Јas]

I'd agree that his comments on Kenny in January were simply an attack on Kenny at a time when the general consensus was that FG weren't going to get into government. It wasn't very politically astute, whatever way one looks at it.

As to trying to get a second seat in Waterford, I don't think a second FG seat was ever very likely. The last time that happened was when FG won 70 seats nationally in 1982.

Now there's something about Irish politics, bit of a 'familyarchy' isn't it?

Very much so...easiest route to the big time.

[Democratic Hawk]

RTE's prediction's underestimated FF by 7 seats (71), FG by 9 (42); and overestimated Labour by 5 (25), Greens by 1 (7), SF by 6 (10), PDs by 1 (3), Indies by 2 (7), as well as predicting the sole Socialist TD holding his seat

It's conceivable that SF could, or even should, have won more but even where they poll relatively well (assuming well is the right word to use), they just don't seem to get the transfers they need from elsewhere; which kind of enhances the fact that they are the "Billy no mates of Irish politics"

This old FPTP-er is actually starting to warm to STV, but don't tell any one !

Question, however, when surplus votes are reallocated, how do they work out which ones to reallocate?

Say if a quota is 10,000, and Candidate A polls 11,000 giving a surplus of 1,000, do they just count out 10 random ballots, then pick an 11th to reallocate ... and so on?

Dave