FL-St. Pete: Crist +1

[Morning in Atlas]

Another poll to disappoint everyone. After 2018 I'll believe it when I see it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol DeSantis can loose

[President Johnson]

I'm not taking Florida polls that seriously, let alone so early. But seems like Crist is the better candidate. Maybe they can team up and Fried runs for the second spot with him? Both are FFs.

[Person Man]

I'm not taking Florida polls that seriously, let alone so early. But seems like Crist is the better candidate. Maybe they can team up and Fried runs for the second spot with him? Both are FFs.

This forum HATED Crist in 2014. I thought he did OK as a Republican Governor.

[Xing]

Not likely, but I don’t think it will be a landslide for DeSantis, either. Sad that such an evil man with blood on his hands is seen as the Messiah by some.

[Young Conservative]

In 2018, St Pete overestimated Gillum by more than 5. In 2020, St Pete overestimated Biden by more than 4.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

FL polling is about as accurate as hamas' missles. Its most likely DeSantis +4-5

[Donerail]

In 2018, St Pete overestimated Gillum by more than 5. In 2020, St Pete overestimated Biden by more than 4.

Fake news! They overestimated Biden by 1 and overestimated Gillum by 1. They certainly *under*estimated the GOP candidates in both races by a lot more, but if you're going to attempt to discredit the poll, at least be precise in your claims instead of arguing that 1>5

[THG]

In 2018, St Pete overestimated Gillum by more than 5. In 2020, St Pete overestimated Biden by more than 4.

Fake news! They overestimated Biden by 1 and overestimated Gillum by 1. They certainly *under*estimated the GOP candidates in both races by a lot more, but if you're going to attempt to discredit the poll, at least be precise in your claims instead of arguing that 1>5

You’re blatantly incorrect. Their final prediction had Gillum winning by 4-5 and Biden winning by 1-2.

So that means they consistently underestimate Republicans by 4-5 points, which would basically mean DeSantis is actually up by around 5 here.

[Donerail]

In 2018, St Pete overestimated Gillum by more than 5. In 2020, St Pete overestimated Biden by more than 4.

Fake news! They overestimated Biden by 1 and overestimated Gillum by 1. They certainly *under*estimated the GOP candidates in both races by a lot more, but if you're going to attempt to discredit the poll, at least be precise in your claims instead of arguing that 1>5

You’re blatantly incorrect. Their final prediction had Gillum winning by 4-5 and Biden winning by 1-2.

So that means they consistently underestimate Republicans by 4-5 points, which would basically mean DeSantis is actually up by around 5 here.

You should google what the word "overestimated" means, as it applies to an individual number, and consider revising your post. Words have meanings. You could say "the poll was off by four," you could say "the poll overestimated the performance of this specific candidate by four" — those sentences do not have the same meaning.

Anyway, if you want to apply your novel method of "unskewing the polls," let's take a look at the only other independent polling we have of this race, Mason-Dixon back in February. Their last poll in 2020 was 48-45 Biden, actual result was 51-48, so using your crude method for calculating a house effect, theirs is D+6. Their last poll had DeSantis winning 52-41; using your methodology, that should actually be more like 55-38. So assuming arguendo that you're right, that the poll should really show DeSantis winning 47-43 — that's a massive collapse over the last few months!

[Real Texan Politics]

On the other hand, Nikki Fried is getting FRIED      :

If the election for Governor of Florida were held today, and the candidates
were Republican Ron DeSantis and Democrat Charlie Crist, who would
you vote for?

Ron DeSantis: 43.8%
Charlie Crist: 45.3%
Undecided: 10.8%

If the election for Governor of Florida were held today, and the candidates
were Republican Ron DeSantis and Democrat Nikki Fried, who would
you vote for?

Ron DeSantis: 45.1%
Nikki Fried: 41.8%
Undecided: 13.1%

Remember folks, twitter isn't real life

[THG]

In 2018, St Pete overestimated Gillum by more than 5. In 2020, St Pete overestimated Biden by more than 4.

Fake news! They overestimated Biden by 1 and overestimated Gillum by 1. They certainly *under*estimated the GOP candidates in both races by a lot more, but if you're going to attempt to discredit the poll, at least be precise in your claims instead of arguing that 1>5

You’re blatantly incorrect. Their final prediction had Gillum winning by 4-5 and Biden winning by 1-2.

So that means they consistently underestimate Republicans by 4-5 points, which would basically mean DeSantis is actually up by around 5 here.

You should google what the word "overestimated" means, as it applies to an individual number, and consider revising your post. Words have meanings. You could say "the poll was off by four," you could say "the poll overestimated the performance of this specific candidate by four" — those sentences do not have the same meaning.

Anyway, if you want to apply your novel method of "unskewing the polls," let's take a look at the only other independent polling we have of this race, Mason-Dixon back in February. Their last poll in 2020 was 48-45 Biden, actual result was 51-48, so using your crude method for calculating a house effect, theirs is D+6. Their last poll had DeSantis winning 52-41; using your methodology, that should actually be more like 55-38. So assuming arguendo that you're right, that the poll should really show DeSantis winning 47-43 — that's a massive collapse over the last few months!

1) Not really- DeSantis’s approval went down last year and bounced back up again once the surge ended.

2) I expect his approval to bounce back to normal once the Delta surge ends.

3) I don’t expect the margin of victory for DeSantis to be 15-20 points. Nor do I expect the race to be a tossup by any means. Is that reasonable to you?

[MT Treasurer]

For some context:

Do you approve of the job Joe Biden is doing as President?  

Yes: 48.8%
No: 45.7%
Unsure: 5.6%

Quinnipiac (!) National Poll, July 27 - August 2:

Approve: 46%
Disapprove: 43%

[THG]

For some context:

Do you approve of the job Joe Biden is doing as President? 

Yes: 48.8%
No: 45.7%
Unsure: 5.6%

I don't think Biden is over-water by 3 in a state he lost by around 3 last November.

Anyone who takes this poll seriously is getting the ignore button treatment.

[Chips]

I currently have DeSantis up over Crist by 3.5%. around the same margin Trump won the state by in 2020. Crist remains unlikely to pull it off as of now but the race will likely be closer than expected even a couple months ago as of now.

[TodayJunior]

One thing I can absolutely guarantee….the GOP will throw everything they have to defend this governorship. They want Florida to be their new base state (especially if Texas falters)….to put a stranglehold on Florida no matter what by any means necessary. They’re absolutely ruthless people.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Florida 2020 election results as imagined by the average Atlas User.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

KS, AZ and FL were wrong last time, it is possible that D's can win FL and lose AZ with split voting, Crist is a strong candidate unlike D's in Senate race in FL whom are gonna lose to Rubio

[Donerail]

3) I don’t expect the margin of victory for DeSantis to be 15-20 points. Nor do I expect the race to be a tossup by any means. Is that reasonable to you?

No, it does not seem reasonable to think the gubernatorial election will be decided by more than, say, five points. That is our well-established normal result for elections in Florida, so you would have to produce substantial and reliable data to shift that prior. So far you've got, what, a couple internals and a Mason-Dixon from February?

[THG]

3) I don’t expect the margin of victory for DeSantis to be 15-20 points. Nor do I expect the race to be a tossup by any means. Is that reasonable to you?

No, it does not seem reasonable to think the gubernatorial election will be decided by more than, say, five points. That is our well-established normal result for elections in Florida, so you would have to produce substantial and reliable data to shift that prior. So far you've got, what, a couple internals and a Mason-Dixon from February?

Literally every poll except this one has DeSantis winning over 5- and even then, considering how St Pete’s consistently underestimates Republicans by an average of 5 every election, this means DeSantis is probably up by around 5 or so here.

(And this is with Delta having a temporary spike as it did in other nations, which hurts any incumbent’s approvals.)

Anyhow you are rather dense, and clearly not worth talking to further, as my argumentative skills are more worthy to be used against more intelligent people. Please do not come up in my notifications again.

[Donerail]

3) I don’t expect the margin of victory for DeSantis to be 15-20 points. Nor do I expect the race to be a tossup by any means. Is that reasonable to you?

No, it does not seem reasonable to think the gubernatorial election will be decided by more than, say, five points. That is our well-established normal result for elections in Florida, so you would have to produce substantial and reliable data to shift that prior. So far you've got, what, a couple internals and a Mason-Dixon from February?

Literally every poll except this one has DeSantis winning over 5- and even then, considering how St Pete’s consistently underestimates Republicans by an average of 5 every election, this means DeSantis is probably up by around 5 or so here.

So a couple R internals and a Mason-Dixon from February. Got it.

Anyhow you are rather dense, and clearly not worth talking to further, as my argumentative skills are more worthy to be used against more intelligent people. Please do not come up in my notifications again.

I'm in your notifs again. What are you gonna do about it? You gonna cry? Gonna piss your pants maybe?

[Pericles]

For some context:

Do you approve of the job Joe Biden is doing as President? 

Yes: 48.8%
No: 45.7%
Unsure: 5.6%

I don't think Biden is over-water by 3 in a state he lost by around 3 last November.

Anyone who takes this poll seriously is getting the ignore button treatment.

Not sure how that's the implausible part, he hasn't made any big mistakes and has been a steady hand. Approval doesn't have to be exactly the same as how an election held right now would go.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is typical if D's lead in any wave insurence state we get attacks by R, samething if Tim Ryan is ahead in a PPP poll whenever there is one, Rs are so scared in DC and PR Statehood would end the GOP party as we know

But Ryan is a a strong challenger, just like Crist was always a strong challenger

[Hope For A New Era]

Almost certainly a temporary bump created by the Delta surge, but it's nice to see regardless. Any sign of depolarization is a good thing in my mind, so the fact that DeSantis's popularity is shifting according to events, even a little bit, is encouraging.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I'm not taking Florida polls that seriously, let alone so early. But seems like Crist is the better candidate. Maybe they can team up and Fried runs for the second spot with him? Both are FFs.

Democrats need a Hispanic candidate for the Lieutenant Governor position, a Cuban or Puerto Rican would be perfect. DeSantis picked a Cuban Lieutenant Governor in 2018.

Democrats are always complaining about Florida Latinos, they need to put one on the ticket.