FL-St. Pete: Crist +1

[Skye]

Crist (D) 45.3
DeSantis (R, inc.) 43.8

DeSantis (R, inc.) 45.1
Fried (D) 41.8

DeSantis Approval: 43.7/48.5 (-5)

https://floridapolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/StPetePolls_2021_State_August3_P7F9W.pdf

[Benjamin Frank]

Still over a year before the election, but so much for the 'Governor DeathSantis will be easily reelected" nonsense comments.

A week is a lifetime in politics.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well well, Crist is winning, there can be split voting in OH, FL so

[Spectator]

Still over a year before the election, but so much for the 'Governor DeathSantis will be easily reelected" nonsense comments.

A week is a lifetime in politics.

He still will be re-elected.

[Donerail]

Hell yeah Charlie crew

[Benjamin Frank]

Still over a year before the election, but so much for the 'Governor DeathSantis will be easily reelected" nonsense comments.

A week is a lifetime in politics.

He still will be re-elected.

I wouldn't count on it.

[Boobs]

Hell yeah Charlie crew

Another W for Champa Bay?

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Meh.. Quinnipiac will release a poll showing Crist up by double digits a week before the election and DeSantis will still proceed to win by 2-3 points.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Accounting for the Florida polling curve this translates into about a five point DeSantis win. That's probably the best we can hope for.

[Biden his time]

Strangely this poll has an overly Republican sample size by party registration.

Unfortunately, it didn't sample anything by the presidential vote in 2020 (which really sucks and puts great strain on the veracity of this poll).


This pollster has a B+ rating from FiveThirtyEight.

In the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election, it underestimated the Republican margin by 4.5%
In the 2018 U.S. Senate Election in FL, it underestimated the Republican margin by 3.8%
In the 2018 Florida Gubernatorial Election, it underestimated the Republican margin by 4.5%

All things considered, this isn't a bad poll for Crist. If this poll underestimates the Republican margin again by 4%, he would be down by only 3%.

[Biden his time]

On the other hand, Nikki Fried is getting FRIED      :

If the election for Governor of Florida were held today, and the candidates
were Republican Ron DeSantis and Democrat Charlie Crist, who would
you vote for?

Ron DeSantis: 43.8%
Charlie Crist: 45.3%
Undecided: 10.8%

If the election for Governor of Florida were held today, and the candidates
were Republican Ron DeSantis and Democrat Nikki Fried, who would
you vote for?

Ron DeSantis: 45.1%
Nikki Fried: 41.8%
Undecided: 13.1%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

UWS AND LONE STAR HAVE BEEN SUPPORTING DeSantis what do they have to say and 2016, Gov Charlie Crist

[THG]

This same poll last year predicted a 9 point Biden win in Pinellas County:

https://www.twitter.com/PeterSchorschFL/status/1323633138506080256

If this garbage poll is the best hope Democrats have in Florida I am not worried one bit. On average this would mean a 7-10 point win for DeSantis?

[Terry the Fat Shark]

This same poll last year predicted a 9 point Biden win in Florida:

https://www.twitter.com/PeterSchorschFL/status/1323633138506080256


If this garbage poll is the best hope Democrats have in Florida I am not worried one bit. On average this would mean a 7-10 point win for DeSantis?

In Pinellas County....and county polls tend to be less accurate in general anyways

[Donerail]

This same poll last year:

If this garbage poll is the best hope Democrats have in Florida I am not worried one bit.

Stupid gotcha — you cherry-picked their poll of Pinellas County instead of their final general election poll, which was 49-48 D (within the margin of error, and closer than most national pollsters). They're not perfect, especially when polling small geographies like a county or city, but they're a better outfit than most.

[THG]

This same poll last year predicted a 9 point Biden win in Florida:

https://www.twitter.com/PeterSchorschFL/status/1323633138506080256
If this garbage poll is the best hope Democrats have in Florida I am not worried one bit. On average this would mean a 7-10 point win for DeSantis?

In Pinellas County....and county polls tend to be less accurate in general anyways

They also predicted Biden winning Florida by 6 in late October and by 11 at one point in July last year. Make what you want of that.

[THG]

This same poll last year:

If this garbage poll is the best hope Democrats have in Florida I am not worried one bit.

Stupid gotcha — you cherry-picked their poll of Pinellas County instead of their final general election poll, which was 49-48 D (within the margin of error, and closer than most national pollsters). They're not perfect, especially when polling small geographies like a county or city, but they're a better outfit than most.

They predicted Biden winning Florida by 6.

My case is closed.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Lol yet DeSantis is winning Tampa in this very poll

[Biden his time]

This same poll last year:

If this garbage poll is the best hope Democrats have in Florida I am not worried one bit.

Stupid gotcha — you cherry-picked their poll of Pinellas County instead of their final general election poll, which was 49-48 D (within the margin of error, and closer than most national pollsters). They're not perfect, especially when polling small geographies like a county or city, but they're a better outfit than most.

They predicted Biden winning Florida by 6.

My case is closed.

Their final poll conducted in November had Biden up by 1% in Florida

49% Biden
48% Trump

They tend to underestimate Republican margins by 4% (going back to 2018 as well)

[THG]

This is their actual 2020 Florida prediction. Not much better!

[THG]

Lol yet DeSantis is winning Tampa in this very poll

LOL

[Biden his time]

Lol yet DeSantis is winning Tampa in this very poll

Yes. The poll doesn't ask about Tampa, but the Tampa media market, and the Tampa media market is very Republican, including Polk, Pasco, Hernando, Sarasota, Manatee, Highlands, and Citrus Counties as well as Pinellas and Hillsborough.

It would be a massive upset if a Democrat ever were to win the Tampa Media Market.

[THG]

This same poll last year:

If this garbage poll is the best hope Democrats have in Florida I am not worried one bit.

Stupid gotcha — you cherry-picked their poll of Pinellas County instead of their final general election poll, which was 49-48 D (within the margin of error, and closer than most national pollsters). They're not perfect, especially when polling small geographies like a county or city, but they're a better outfit than most.

They predicted Biden winning Florida by 6.

My case is closed.

Their final poll conducted in November had Biden up by 1% in Florida

49% Biden
48% Trump

They tend to underestimate Republican margins by 4% (going back to 2018 as well)

Ok so DeSantis wins by 5 at minimum- using their methodology.

[Donerail]

Stupid gotcha — you cherry-picked their poll of Pinellas County instead of their final general election poll, which was 49-48 D (within the margin of error, and closer than most national pollsters). They're not perfect, especially when polling small geographies like a county or city, but they're a better outfit than most.

They predicted Biden winning Florida by 6.

My case is closed.

1. A poll is not a "prediction." It is a snapshot of the sentiments of the electorate, based on a representative subsample, at the time the poll is taken. If you do not understand that, I would recommend you get out of the polling subforums and stick to those more suited to your IQ, like US General Discussion.
2. Their poll in July was Biden 50-44. Their poll in November — the closest thing to a "prediction" — was 49-48.

[Biden his time]

Barely thirty minutes and we're already pushing page two lol

And this is over a year out from the election!