How long would Patrick Murphy (FL) have lasted in the house?

[Tekken_Guy]

How long would Patrick Murphy (the Florida one) have lasted in the U.S. House had he never ran for Senate?

[Pink Panther]

He would fall in either 2016 or 2020, though leaning 2020, since Trump won that district somewhat decently, and I don't think Murphy would've been able to hold on.

[Spectator]

My bet is 2020 since there were still a big amount of ticket splitters in 2016.

[Meatball Ron]

How did Murphy, as a first-term incumbent, win by *20 points* in this Romney +4 seat in 2014?

Seems like his opponent was probably weak but that's hardly enough to explain it?

[Donerail]

How did Murphy, as a first-term incumbent, win by *20 points* in this Romney +4 seat in 2014?

Seems like his opponent was probably weak but that's hardly enough to explain it?

Murphy was a good candidate — strong campaigner with a background in environmental consulting, in a district where environmental issues matter a lot. He also didn't have a primary opponent and was able to run sunny ads basically since he got elected. His opponent, meanwhile, endured a bloody primary where he emerged with <40%, and because of the schedule immediately had to turn around w/ very little time to try to make a dent in Murphy. National groups never seriously targeted the race; NRCC never played and I don't think any other major R PACs did either.