Rate MT-SEN in 2024

[Tekken_Guy]

Rate Montana's senate race in 2024.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt D since Rosendale already lost to Tester and Zinke is gonna be a Freshman Rep in MT 2, the Rs already ran Daines and Gianforte in 202o against our best candidate Bullock who is the same as Tim Ryan

MT like OH split its votes 2012 Prez and Sen when Biden was Veep

The only person that can beat Tester is Gianforte but he is Gov already

2012 SPL MO, MT, OH Prez and Sen
2018 OH, AZ Spl for Sen and Gov
2022 OH, MO, NC go D Sen Ryan, Nixon and Beasley, OH FL OV SAFE RENNACI

[Xing]

Lean R. I wouldn’t rule out Tester overperforming the Democratic ticket by 10% or even a bit more, but even so, it’ll still be an uphill climb for him.

[NewYorkExpress]

Safe R.

I'll be surprised if Tester even runs for reelection.

[SnowLabrador]

Safe R, the same as I rate MT-PRES 2024. It's not 2012 anymore; we're a lot more polarized.

[Non Swing Voter]

Reading the right wing ideology of the Montana posters here + general leanings of the state = Lean R.

[TML]

Remember that Tester won his 2018 election in a way similar to how Susan Collins won in 2020 - by emphasizing the positive contributions he made to his state and painting his opponent as an out-of-touch outsider. On the other hand, the 2020 results in MT can be explained by the following factors:

-Democrats reducing in-person campaigning due to the pandemic (which hurt them in many parts of the country, including here in MT)
-Democrats not having any candidates running for re-election to their existing posts (the two incumbents they had running were both running for different offices than the ones they held at the time, unlike 2016 and 2018 when they had their incumbent governor and senator running for re-election to their existing posts, respectively)
-Trump’s presence at the top of the ticket inspiring many low-propensity straight-ticket R voters to turn out (which was in turn helped by the state government’s facilitation of mail-in voting), greatly expanding Republican victory margins compared to most pre-Election Day polls.

Now, it remains to be seen whether the 2024 electorate will more closely resemble 2018 or 2020 in terms of partisan composition. If it’s the former, then Tester has at least a legitimate shot at winning again; if it’s the latter, then I would agree that he is in jeopardy (I performed hypothetical calculations using 2018 and 2020 exit polls and determined that Tester would have lost by 9 points if he had faced the 2020 electorate in terms of partisan composition). So I’d consider Tester a slight underdog for now, which means he is by no means out of contention.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R.

I'll be surprised if Tester even runs for reelection.

No it's not, Rosendale already lost to Tester and Zinke will be a Freshman

[MillennialModerate]

Safe R if Treasonous Trump runs.

Otherwise Lean R

[beesley]

If I were a professional rater, I'd give it a Tossup this early out.

[Not Me, Us]

Likely R. If there's a blue wave Tester could eke out a win, but he's the definite underdog.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R if Treasonous Trump runs.

Otherwise Lean R

Whom is running Rosendale already lost to Tester and Zinke and Gianforte already have their own offices already

[President Johnson]

Pure tossup/Tilt Democratic.

It's no coindicence Jon Tester has won multiple elections. Unless proven otherwise, this race is a tossup.

[One Term Floridian]

As pure of a toss-up as possible. Tester should almost certainly outperform Bullock last year and by quite a bit I’d imagine. A lot of it of course depends on how much Biden can stop the bleeding on top of the ticket.

[Utah Neolib]

Tester is a goner, but will still do better than the D ticket. Likely R, Safe R if he doesn’t run for re-election

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tester is a goner, but will still do better than the D ticket. Likely R, Safe R if he doesn’t run for re-election

Tester isn't gone Rosendale already lost to him and Zinke and Gianforte already are officeholders, this state split it's votes between Prez and Sen in 2012/ the only reason why Bullock lost was due to DAINES

[mtvoter]

Safe R.

I'll be surprised if Tester even runs for reelection.

Why?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Lean R to likely R. It's going to really depend on the national environment, but I don't expect Tester to quite be completely blown out of the water.

[Utah Neolib]

Tester is a goner, but will still do better than the D ticket. Likely R, Safe R if he doesn’t run for re-election

Tester isn't gone Rosendale already lost to him and Zinke and Gianforte already are officeholders, this state split it's votes between Prez and Sen in 2012/ the only reason why Bullock lost was due to DAINES

Uhhhhhhh split ticketing in Montana has gone down significantly. While it still exists, more than other solid red states, it’s not enough to save even Tester.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Safe R. As I said before, we should spend money in TX and FL and use those as Longshot races instead.

[Minnesota Mike]

Safe R. As I said before, we should spend money in TX and FL and use those as Longshot races instead.

Because Montana is so expensive?  It's to early to worry about 2024 but as a general rule it probably does not make a whole lot of sense to cut off a 3 term incumbent because he faces a tough race. One thing Democrats have not had a problem with is raising enough money for Senate races. There will be enough $$$$ for all the competitive races.

[Mr. Smith]

Like his predecessor, all Tester's wins have been in favorable years. 2024 will not likely be so lopsidedly favorable. 

Also, he might just retire.

[here2view]

Tilt R this far out. Tester better hope there’s a 3rd party candidate, he only cleared 50% in one of his three elections.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Like his predecessor, all Tester's wins have been in favorable years. 2024 will not likely be so lopsidedly favorable. 

Also, he might just retire.

What Ds will win the 304 map not 375 but Tester and Brown can win DeSantis and Trump are loosing badly to Biden and Harris by 7

[Hope For A New Era]

It's more than three years away, so the only sane thing to say is Tossup.

Wait and see how the situation develops.