PA 13

[Хahar 🤔]

PA-13 only gets 102 pages because of a certain rivalry between two posters from it.  It is kind of an interesting "Reagan Democrat" (just to annoy BRTD) area, so it's worth a few pages.

TX-22 is worthy of about 3 sentences, frankly.

I'm wondering which CDs could possibly be worth 102 pages of talk - I can only think of one personally for me: NM-01.

I managed to squeeze 5 pages out of CA-15. That was all it's worth.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Wow. I could see 102 pages of discussion about say, TX-22, but PA-13? I must give you all kudos for keeping it alive this along.

You have to understand that PA 13 was supposed to be competitive in 2004. You also have to take into consideration that I live rather close to ICE HOCKEY and we have very different views on things around here. We live in an interesting area so there is a lot to discuss. PA 13 is a mix of some big city politics and high society, suburban life.

     I was aware of PA-13 being a race to watch in 2004. However, I had completely forgotten about it since then, so I was surprised to see this thread.

     This makes me want to start a thread about CA-08 now. I won't though, since I think I'm the only person on the forum who actually lives in that district. Actually, on second thought, my ex-girlfriend lives in CA-08 too. When she comes back from Chile, I'll start a thread about it.

PA-13 only gets 102 pages because of a certain rivalry between two posters from it.  It is kind of an interesting "Reagan Democrat" (just to annoy BRTD) area, so it's worth a few pages.

TX-22 is worthy of about 3 sentences, frankly.

I'm wondering which CDs could possibly be worth 102 pages of talk - I can only think of one personally for me: NM-01.

     CA-08 isn't worth much either. Doesn't stop me from trying though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It is kind of an interesting "Reagan Democrat" (just to annoy BRTD) area,

Though in this case the term is actually somewhat accurate.

[Alcon]

Some counties actually publish write-ins.  They're usually pretty boring--people they know, themselves, famous people, BS write-ins ("John Doe" or "Donald Duck")

My favorite was a GOP write-in for "Juan McCain" ("what does it mean?!")

[J. J.]

The four year anniversary of this classic thread. Amazing.

<Shock>

I really wanted to revitalize this classic thread.

Will Obama carry it?  I think that is the billion dollar question.

Yep but it will be close.

As for the Congressional race itself, this will be the second time that I won't be voting for the GOP nominee. I'm writing in a local State Representative again (but a different guy this time).

If its that close, Obama wont carry the state.  He needs to win this district by a good 10-12 points if he wants to offset the Republican trend in the Western part of the state. 

I'm gonna say Obama by about 9-11 with some gains in Montco offset by older whites in NE Philly who will vote for McCain.

IIRC, he didn't in the primary.

[Keystone Phil]

IIRC, he didn't in the primary.

He didn't but the Montco Dems that went for Hillary won't go for McCain. The NE Dems are a much different story.

Some counties actually publish write-ins. 

We're working on getting this county to publish the actual votes for the public. Let's take it one step at a time. 

[Sam Spade]

It is kind of an interesting "Reagan Democrat" (just to annoy BRTD) area,

Though in this case the term is actually somewhat accurate.

I know.  I just wanted to see if I could get him to say that it doesn't apply here.  Now, there's no chance, obviously. 

[Mr.Phips]

     Wow. I could see 102 pages of discussion about say, TX-22, but PA-13? I must give you all kudos for keeping it alive this along.

You have to understand that PA 13 was supposed to be competitive in 2004. You also have to take into consideration that I live rather close to ICE HOCKEY and we have very different views on things around here. We live in an interesting area so there is a lot to discuss. PA 13 is a mix of some big city politics and high society, suburban life.

The Republicans badly overreached in trying to make PA-13 a competitive district for 2002.  Doing this made PA-06 lean Democratic in national and increasingly in statewide elections.  If Republicans had put the portion of Montco currently in PA-06 in PA-13 and put all of the few heavily Republican townships(if there are any clusters that went for Bush with 55%+) in PA-13 in PA-06, Jim Gerlach would have by about ten points in 2002, 2004, and 2006 rather than just two. 

[Keystone Phil]

The Republicans badly overreached in trying to make PA-13 a competitive district for 2002.  Doing this made PA-06 lean Democratic in national and increasingly in statewide elections.  If Republicans had put the portion of Montco currently in PA-06 in PA-13 and put all of the few heavily Republican townships(if there are any clusters that went for Bush with 55%+) in PA-13 in PA-06, Jim Gerlach would have by about ten points in 2002, 2004, and 2006 rather than just two. 

Believe me, I know.

Cue to ICE HOCKEY to state how the Perzel plan backfired... 

You have to understand that the idea was to make Borski run against Hoeffel in the primary in 2002 (which he likely would have won because of his strong base in the NE compared to Hoeffel's weak support in Montco). This would have set up a more favorable battle for us in a Brown vs. Borski race. Brown would have still had appeal here but would have won Montco fairly easily.

[Mr.Phips]

The Republicans badly overreached in trying to make PA-13 a competitive district for 2002.  Doing this made PA-06 lean Democratic in national and increasingly in statewide elections.  If Republicans had put the portion of Montco currently in PA-06 in PA-13 and put all of the few heavily Republican townships(if there are any clusters that went for Bush with 55%+) in PA-13 in PA-06, Jim Gerlach would have by about ten points in 2002, 2004, and 2006 rather than just two. 

Believe me, I know.

Cue to ICE HOCKEY to state how the Perzel plan backfired... 

You have to understand that the idea was to make Borski run against Hoeffel in the primary in 2002 (which he likely would have won because of his strong base in the NE compared to Hoeffel's weak support in Montco). This would have set up a more favorable battle for us in a Brown vs. Borski race. Brown would have still had appeal here but would have won Montco fairly easily.

I dont know.  Brown might have won Montco in that case, but Borski probably would have outperformed of Hoeffel significantly in NE Philly, since he represented that area for almost twenty years. 

[Keystone Phil]

I dont know.  Brown might have won Montco in that case, but Borski probably would have outperformed of Hoeffel significantly in NE Philly, since he represented that area for almost twenty years. 

He would have outperformed Hoeffel but the question is: would it have been by enough? Brown still had serious appeal here. Plus, I believe she could have made up for it in Montco. It wouldn't have been close out there. Brown still took 47% out there against a two term Congressman who was actually fairly well known as a former County Commissioner. She would have probably had a double digit win against Borski, an unknown, unaccomplished Northeast Philly Congressman.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The Republicans badly overreached in trying to make PA-13 a competitive district for 2002.  Doing this made PA-06 lean Democratic in national and increasingly in statewide elections.  If Republicans had put the portion of Montco currently in PA-06 in PA-13 and put all of the few heavily Republican townships(if there are any clusters that went for Bush with 55%+) in PA-13 in PA-06, Jim Gerlach would have by about ten points in 2002, 2004, and 2006 rather than just two. 

Believe me, I know.

Cue to ICE HOCKEY to state how the Perzel plan backfired... 

You have to understand that the idea was to make Borski run against Hoeffel in the primary in 2002 (which he likely would have won because of his strong base in the NE compared to Hoeffel's weak support in Montco). This would have set up a more favorable battle for us in a Brown vs. Borski race. Brown would have still had appeal here but would have won Montco fairly easily.

My question is what the heck we are going to do when Jim Gerlach decides to retire in PA-06. I mean that district was created just for him and when he retires is there anyone that could prevent its loss. If that happens we will never gain back a majority in the Pennsylvania congressional delegation.

I would say Obama wins PA 13 by 12%  and 6 by 7% or more.

[Mr.Phips]

The Republicans badly overreached in trying to make PA-13 a competitive district for 2002.  Doing this made PA-06 lean Democratic in national and increasingly in statewide elections.  If Republicans had put the portion of Montco currently in PA-06 in PA-13 and put all of the few heavily Republican townships(if there are any clusters that went for Bush with 55%+) in PA-13 in PA-06, Jim Gerlach would have by about ten points in 2002, 2004, and 2006 rather than just two. 

Believe me, I know.

Cue to ICE HOCKEY to state how the Perzel plan backfired... 

You have to understand that the idea was to make Borski run against Hoeffel in the primary in 2002 (which he likely would have won because of his strong base in the NE compared to Hoeffel's weak support in Montco). This would have set up a more favorable battle for us in a Brown vs. Borski race. Brown would have still had appeal here but would have won Montco fairly easily.

My question is what the heck we are going to do when Jim Gerlach decides to retire in PA-06. I mean that district was created just for him and when he retires is there anyone that could prevent its loss. If that happens we will never gain back a majority in the Pennsylvania congressional delegation.

I would say Obama wins PA 13 by 12%  and 6 by 7% or more.

I know Phil will disagree with me but I dont think there is any Republican who could win PA-06 once Gerlach leaves unless that district loses its portion of Montco and picks up more Conservative areas such as the area of Chester currently in PA-07.  This would leave Joe Sestak with a very liberal Delware/Montco district that would probably be as Democratic as PA-13 or even more so. 

[Jake]

PA-06 is not going to be kept around once redistricting occurs. If the Democrats control the process, Gerlach will either be shoved into a safe GOP district with Pitts or into a lean Democratic district. If the Republicans control the process, Gerlach will be given a stronger district at the expense of GOP chances in PA-08, PA-07, and PA-13.

[Mr.Phips]

PA-06 is not going to be kept around once redistricting occurs. If the Democrats control the process, Gerlach will either be shoved into a safe GOP district with Pitts or into a lean Democratic district. If the Republicans control the process, Gerlach will be given a stronger district at the expense of GOP chances in PA-08, PA-07, and PA-13.

The latter one will likely happen.  PA-07, PA-08, and PA-13 will be conceeded to the Democrats in order to make the district safer for Gerlach. 

[MarkWarner08]

PA-06 is not going to be kept around once redistricting occurs. If the Democrats control the process, Gerlach will either be shoved into a safe GOP district with Pitts or into a lean Democratic district. If the Republicans control the process, Gerlach will be given a stronger district at the expense of GOP chances in PA-08, PA-07, and PA-13.

The latter one will likely happen.  PA-07, PA-08, and PA-13 will be conceeded to the Democrats in order to make the district safer for Gerlach. 

What happens if  current political makeup remains after the '10 election? Would a bipartisan compromise likely help or hurt Gerlach?

[Mr.Phips]

PA-06 is not going to be kept around once redistricting occurs. If the Democrats control the process, Gerlach will either be shoved into a safe GOP district with Pitts or into a lean Democratic district. If the Republicans control the process, Gerlach will be given a stronger district at the expense of GOP chances in PA-08, PA-07, and PA-13.

The latter one will likely happen.  PA-07, PA-08, and PA-13 will be conceeded to the Democrats in order to make the district safer for Gerlach. 

What happens if  current political makeup remains after the '10 election? Would a bipartisan compromise likely help or hurt Gerlach?

It will likely help.  It would be an incumbent protection plan. 

[Keystone Phil]

My question is what the heck we are going to do when Jim Gerlach decides to retire in PA-06. I mean that district was created just for him and when he retires is there anyone that could prevent its loss. If that happens we will never gain back a majority in the Pennsylvania congressional delegation.

As weird as it sounds, while the district was made for Gerlach, I think we'll have an easier time holding it when he leaves.

PA-06 is not going to be kept around once redistricting occurs. If the Democrats control the process, Gerlach will either be shoved into a safe GOP district with Pitts or into a lean Democratic district. If the Republicans control the process, Gerlach will be given a stronger district at the expense of GOP chances in PA-08, PA-07, and PA-13.

The latter one will likely happen.  PA-07, PA-08, and PA-13 will be conceeded to the Democrats in order to make the district safer for Gerlach. 

Agreed

[Mr.Phips]

My question is what the heck we are going to do when Jim Gerlach decides to retire in PA-06. I mean that district was created just for him and when he retires is there anyone that could prevent its loss. If that happens we will never gain back a majority in the Pennsylvania congressional delegation.

As weird as it sounds, while the district was made for Gerlach, I think we'll have an easier time holding it when he leaves.

I dont know.  That district continues to trend Democratic and Gerlach is probably the perfect Republican for that district, pro-labor and socially moderate. 

[Keystone Phil]

My question is what the heck we are going to do when Jim Gerlach decides to retire in PA-06. I mean that district was created just for him and when he retires is there anyone that could prevent its loss. If that happens we will never gain back a majority in the Pennsylvania congressional delegation.

As weird as it sounds, while the district was made for Gerlach, I think we'll have an easier time holding it when he leaves.

I dont know.  That district continues to trend Democratic and Gerlach is probably the perfect Republican for that district, pro-labor and socially moderate. 

Being "Pro Labor' isn't exactly ideal for PA 6.

[Mr.Phips]

My question is what the heck we are going to do when Jim Gerlach decides to retire in PA-06. I mean that district was created just for him and when he retires is there anyone that could prevent its loss. If that happens we will never gain back a majority in the Pennsylvania congressional delegation.

As weird as it sounds, while the district was made for Gerlach, I think we'll have an easier time holding it when he leaves.

I dont know.  That district continues to trend Democratic and Gerlach is probably the perfect Republican for that district, pro-labor and socially moderate. 

Being "Pro Labor' isn't exactly ideal for PA 6.

Being overwhelming anti-labor like Pat Toomey aint gonna play well here either. 

[MarkWarner08]

My question is what the heck we are going to do when Jim Gerlach decides to retire in PA-06. I mean that district was created just for him and when he retires is there anyone that could prevent its loss. If that happens we will never gain back a majority in the Pennsylvania congressional delegation.

As weird as it sounds, while the district was made for Gerlach, I think we'll have an easier time holding it when he leaves.

I dont know.  That district continues to trend Democratic and Gerlach is probably the perfect Republican for that district, pro-labor and socially moderate. 

Being "Pro Labor' isn't exactly ideal for PA 6.

Being overwhelming anti-labor like Pat Toomey aint gonna play well here either. 

Pro-labor is anathema to the Country Club crowd that lives in the Main Line. It never fails to amuse me that liberal Bryn Mawr College is situated in a tony Republican town.

[Keystone Phil]

My question is what the heck we are going to do when Jim Gerlach decides to retire in PA-06. I mean that district was created just for him and when he retires is there anyone that could prevent its loss. If that happens we will never gain back a majority in the Pennsylvania congressional delegation.

As weird as it sounds, while the district was made for Gerlach, I think we'll have an easier time holding it when he leaves.

I dont know.  That district continues to trend Democratic and Gerlach is probably the perfect Republican for that district, pro-labor and socially moderate. 

Being "Pro Labor' isn't exactly ideal for PA 6.

Being overwhelming anti-labor like Pat Toomey aint gonna play well here either. 

Toomey was elected and re-elected in an area that is more in tune with labor issues than PA 6 will ever be so I don't understand what you're trying to prove.

PA 6 has a lot of wealthy voters (the Main Line) and the more middle class areas are rather socially conservative.



Back to PA 13 (we could always bump one of the PA 6 threads to continue to current conversation)...

It should be interesting to see how Kats does in the Russian Jew communities of NE Philly especially with Obama's rather weak standing with Jewish voters. Kats could make this interesting but I don't see her getting much more than 40%.

[Keystone Phil]

Pro-labor is anathema to the Country Club crowd that lives in the Main Line. It never fails to amuse me that liberal Bryn Mawr College is situated in a tony Republican town.

Bingo

That sums it all up.

[MarkWarner08]

Pro-labor is anathema to the Country Club crowd that lives in the Main Line. It never fails to amuse me that liberal Bryn Mawr College is situated in a tony Republican town.

Bingo

That sums it all up.

Speaking of labor -- this AFL-CIO anti-Gerlach web video is my favorite of the '06 campaign.

Gerlach staffer: (preppy looking guy in Ralph Lauren jacket): You guys live here?
Both AFL-CIO guys (dressed in schlubby clothes): Yeah
Gerlach staffer: You look pretty not local

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=70oYnw3Nh9U