PA 13

[TeePee4Prez]

Gerlach only ended up winning by 2%.

Which was people don't understand. He was supposed to be an easy win there. He was popular as a State Senator.

You can tell me all you want that Allyson Schwartz is a Nancy Pelosi/San Fran liberal all you want, but face it a lot of people are just not that religious here albeit were not as secular as CA 8. 

I'm not saying voters are extremely religious here but the NE is dominated by senior citizens. While we have a sizable Jewish community, the majority are old school Catholics. I think the more secular Montco balances out the NE.

We have a decent number of secular Catholics as well.  You're not wrong saying there's a lot of old school Catholic Democrats here however.

[Keystone Phil]

We have a decent number of secular Catholics as well. 

Yeah, many of the younger families especially in areas like Buselton, Rhawnhurst (your area of the NE).

[Mr.Phips]

What was the point of creating this district anyway in 2002?  Did the Republicans just pack the district full of Democratic votes in order to keep PA-06, PA-07, and PA-08 from getting too Democratic? 

The point was for a pickup. The GOP really thought we could take it and we weren't worried about 6, 7 or 8 at the time. Gerlach's district was made for an easy GOP win. Weldon and Greenwood (before Fitzpatrick) were seen as easy wins for however long they wanted to remain in Congress. Needless to say, the plan backfired.

Gerlach only ended up winning by 2%.  If his district did not include that part of Montgomery county and took more of Chester instead, he would have been much safer. 

If only PA 6 took in West Chester, you'd be saying Congresswoman Lois Murphy right now.  Gerrymanding can work in strange ways.

How do you figure that?  West Chester is much more Republican than the part of Montgomery in PA-06.  I bet in the 2012 redistricting, that part of Montgomery will be taken out and put into PA-07 while giving PA-06 the part of Chester in PA-07.  That would likely make Sestak about as secure as Schwartz and would likely insulate Gerlach from a tough challenge.

[Keystone Phil]

I saw Kats tonight at a Republican ward meeting. It was....eh. She was ok but I guess I shouldn't have expected anymore. She tried to convince people that the national GOP sees this as a major interesting battle because she is a "different" type of candidate. She's different because she's an Eastern European immigrant (very heavy accent) which would help among a traditionally Democratic group of voters. She can make in-roads but nothing major. This obviously won't be a major race.

[King]

I left my heart in PA 13.

[Brittain33]

This district went surprisingly strongly for Clinton yesterday, I assume.

[Keystone Phil]

I don't know how we went but I guess it was a strong win for Hillary (Hillary's base in the NE + a surprisingly close Montco result).

I wrote in State Representative Tom Murt yesterday for the GOP nomination.

[Hash]

I saw over 70% for Hillary in PA-13 somewhere IIRC.

[Brittain33]

I found a link.

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/18018274.html

Clinton 62%, Obama 38%

Almost identical results in PA-08.

Meanwhile, PA-06 and PA-07 had almost identical 50%/50% results. Says a lot about how different areas of suburbia vote, although again, PA-13 is only partly suburban.

[Keystone Phil]

In other PA 13 news...

I just picked up the voting machine print out from my polling place. Luckily, it was still posted outside. I noticed something very interesting - Allyson Schwartz received four write in votes against her for the Democratic nomination. We never see this at my precinct (with the except of my write in votes and the write in campaign for another race yesterday). I wonder who was written in.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Meanwhile, PA-06 and PA-07 had almost identical 50%/50% results. Says a lot about how different areas of suburbia vote, although again, PA-13 is only partly suburban.

PA-06 actually can never have one candidate exceed 51%, they past an ordiance

[Verily]

In other PA 13 news...

I just picked up the voting machine print out from my polling place. Luckily, it was still posted outside. I noticed something very interesting - Allyson Schwartz received four write in votes against her for the Democratic nomination. We never see this at my precinct (with the except of my write in votes and the write in campaign for another race yesterday). I wonder who was written in.

My guess: someone like BRTD wrote in a local politician who endorsed Obama. Or else it was simply silly people drawn into the high turnout vortex who wrote in random names for fun.

[Keystone Phil]

In other PA 13 news...

I just picked up the voting machine print out from my polling place. Luckily, it was still posted outside. I noticed something very interesting - Allyson Schwartz received four write in votes against her for the Democratic nomination. We never see this at my precinct (with the except of my write in votes and the write in campaign for another race yesterday). I wonder who was written in.

My guess: someone like BRTD wrote in a local politician who endorsed Obama.

Listen, there are really messed up people out there but I think BRTD is very unique when it comes to that. I can't seriously imagine anybody doing that especially since there are so few local politicians that endorsed Obama.

Or maybe some people wrote in what I suggested they write in for U.S. Representative instead of...oh my....

[TeePee4Prez]

<Shock>

I really wanted to revitalize this classic thread.

[Хahar 🤔]

[J. J.]

<Shock>

I really wanted to revitalize this classic thread.

Will Obama carry it?  I think that is the billion dollar question.

[Keystone Phil]

The four year anniversary of this classic thread. Amazing.

<Shock>

I really wanted to revitalize this classic thread.

Will Obama carry it?  I think that is the billion dollar question.

Yep but it will be close.

As for the Congressional race itself, this will be the second time that I won't be voting for the GOP nominee. I'm writing in a local State Representative again (but a different guy this time).

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The four year anniversary of this classic thread. Amazing.

<Shock>

I really wanted to revitalize this classic thread.

Will Obama carry it?  I think that is the billion dollar question.

Yep but it will be close.

As for the Congressional race itself, this will be the second time that I won't be voting for the GOP nominee. I'm writing in a local State Representative again (but a different guy this time).

Who is the GOP nominee for PA-13?

[Keystone Phil]

Who is the GOP nominee for PA-13?

Marina Kats

She's an attorney from NE Philly. She's also a Ukrainian immigrant.

[Mr.Phips]

The four year anniversary of this classic thread. Amazing.

<Shock>

I really wanted to revitalize this classic thread.

Will Obama carry it?  I think that is the billion dollar question.

Yep but it will be close.

As for the Congressional race itself, this will be the second time that I won't be voting for the GOP nominee. I'm writing in a local State Representative again (but a different guy this time).

If its that close, Obama wont carry the state.  He needs to win this district by a good 10-12 points if he wants to offset the Republican trend in the Western part of the state.  

[TeePee4Prez]

The four year anniversary of this classic thread. Amazing.

<Shock>

I really wanted to revitalize this classic thread.

Will Obama carry it?  I think that is the billion dollar question.

Yep but it will be close.

As for the Congressional race itself, this will be the second time that I won't be voting for the GOP nominee. I'm writing in a local State Representative again (but a different guy this time).

If its that close, Obama wont carry the state.  He needs to win this district by a good 10-12 points if he wants to offset the Republican trend in the Western part of the state. 

I'm gonna say Obama by about 9-11 with some gains in Montco offset by older whites in NE Philly who will vote for McCain.

[Keystone Phil]

I'm gonna say Obama by about 9-11 with some gains in Montco offset by older whites in NE Philly who will vote for McCain.

And Kerry won here by about twelve points last time so a smaller win for Obama helps McCain.

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Wow. I could see 102 pages of discussion about say, TX-22, but PA-13? I must give you all kudos for keeping it alive this along.

[Keystone Phil]

     Wow. I could see 102 pages of discussion about say, TX-22, but PA-13? I must give you all kudos for keeping it alive this along.

You have to understand that PA 13 was supposed to be competitive in 2004. You also have to take into consideration that I live rather close to ICE HOCKEY and we have very different views on things around here. We live in an interesting area so there is a lot to discuss. PA 13 is a mix of some big city politics and high society, suburban life.

[Sam Spade]

PA-13 only gets 102 pages because of a certain rivalry between two posters from it.  It is kind of an interesting "Reagan Democrat" (just to annoy BRTD) area, so it's worth a few pages.

TX-22 is worthy of about 3 sentences, frankly.

I'm wondering which CDs could possibly be worth 102 pages of talk - I can only think of one personally for me: NM-01.