Rank seats in likeliness to flip

[MarkWarner08]

Rick Santorum won the Philly Suburbs in 1994 and 2000. Do you really think he can win with Rendell on the top of the ticket?

No, he won't, but that doesn't mean that he will lose.

 

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The polls seem to be showing that Santorum is gaining back that base.

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One of us will be right on November 8th (unless things get really ugly). Let's wait and see. 

Good point. If Santorum pulls this off, the Democratic Party will have some major soul searching to do.

[Conan]

1. OH
2. NJ
3. MT
4. RI
5. TN
6. PA
7. MO
8. MD
9. VA
10. MN
11. WA
12. MI
13. AZ
14. NE
15. VT (Idk y)
No other show flickers of competiveness

This is hilarious.

Agreed.

[ian]

1. PA
2. NJ
3. MO
4. MT
5. OH
6. RI
7. VA
8. TN
9. MN
10. MD
11. WA
12. MI
13. AZ

The rest are irrelevant.
BTW, none are sure to flip, and it scares me...

[Deano963]

Well, considering that an 18-point gap is just about the same gap this race has had for more than a year (evidenced by 20+ polls), yes, I would call the other polls outliers.

Oh, so because a polls way back showed a double digit lead for Casey that means Santorum cannot come back no matter what? Basically, there is no way for this race to narrow, right? Wow, thank you. Respond to my post when you get a clue.

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Things don't work out the way people want it sometime, little boy.

 

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Baseless? Uh, intelligent people know that when a candidate is so far ahead people are more reluctant to turn out. Polls show Santorum with the momentum. People turn out when things are favoring their candidate while there is more of a risk of people staying home when you're so far ahead. Anyone would tell you this but you refuse to listen.

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Ok, let's say you are right. I want you to explain for me the 1990 and 1992 House races. The man has a history of running campaigns that he should have never won. Explain to me why the idea that Santorum is a far better campaigner and has the ability to come back (history proves this while you have no proof on your side) is so "hair-brained." Also address the issue of Casey being a weak campaigner and someone that throws away a tough race (again, I have proof and you don't).

I look forward to your entertaining response.

Phil once again you prove yourself to be the biggest hack on this entire forum. You have no facts or data to back up your idiotic claims so all you do is make up wild theories and call me names when I throw out a fact like how Rendell's turnout machine is going to work again this year. And your response?

"Things don't work out the way people want it sometime, little boy."

Highly intelligent argument there, Hack. Way to show yourself to be a head-in-the-sand partisan moron. How about an argument with some substance Hack???

Your theory about people staying home when their candidate is ahead is asinine. I challenge you to give a few examples and prove where this has happened before to someone in Santorum's position. Until then, it's just baseless ranting, which is all you ever do......

Address the issue of Rendell winning by 20+ points in the polls and how he is going to have about $10 million to fund a GOTV effort for Democrats up and down the ticket. That's another fact, I haven't seen you provide one yet.

[Deano963]

Rick Santorum won the Philly Suburbs in 1994 and 2000. Do you really think he can win with Rendell on the top of the ticket?

No, he won't, but that doesn't mean that he will lose.

Um...yes it does Hack. EVERY single professional political analyst I have read on the PA Senate race has said that his race will be decided in the Philly suburbs. I don't know how to make that any more plain to you. If you ever bothered to read any professional analysis on this race instead of just bloviating your ignorant views on it, you might know this. The Philly burbs voted for Kerry over Bush, Rendell's base is there and he has a proven turnout operation, and Santorum will win them this year when hell freezes over.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil once again you prove yourself to be the biggest hack on this entire forum. You have no facts or data to back up your idiotic claims so all you do is make up wild theories and call me names when I throw out a fact like how Rendell's turnout machine is going to work again this year. And your response?

"Things don't work out the way people want it sometime, little boy."

Highly intelligent argument there, Hack. Way to show yourself to be a head-in-the-sand partisan moron. How about an argument with some substance Hack???

Substance being that machines don't always win. Plus, you know very little about this state and its politics to begin with so don't throw out arguments like "the machine will turn out" and "Santorum is hated by Pennsylvania!" when you don't understand things.

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Are you kidding? You don't think that enough voters have stayed home in key races resulting in a loss for a favored candidate? You will never learn.

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What does that have to do with my point? I said that Rendell being up hurts him because people think the race is over and might not feel the need to vote.

Listen, I feel pretty sorry for you, kid. You must be just getting involved and don't understand how certain things can happen. Candidates can be favored to win yet collapse when their voters don't see the urgency to turn out. That's something you refuse to grasp because you are new to the game and seemingly very immature.

I have provided several facts concerning this race. I brought up specifics about Santorum's past campaigns that mirror this race but you, insisting on being a blind ideological and partisan hack motivated by a hatred for Santorum, refuse to accept these findings. I look forward to some better debates with you down the road...you know...real debates where you can bring up some good points. In the meantime, read up on what you're talking about.

The Philly burbs voted for Kerry over Bush, Rendell's base is there and he has a proven turnout operation, and Santorum will win them this year when hell freezes over.

Santorum does not need the Philly suburbs to win. "You need to win the suburban areas of Philadelphia" is the biggest myth in PA politics and this year will prove that. By the way, don't lecture me on how Santorum won't win that area when I was one of the first to admit that. It is obvious to everyone, too, so don't raise the point as if you are telling us something new.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Who was the last candidate to win PA without winning suburban Philly?

Well from the Atlas....Jimmy Carter in 1976

[Keystone Phil]

Who was the last candidate to win PA without winning suburban Philly?

Not one that I can think of but that doesn't mean that it can't happen. When you look at registrations, SE PA doesn't dominate like people claim.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

In all fairness, based on calculations it is mathematically possible.

In 2000 Santorum won by 327,054 votes. In Bucks, Delaware and Montgomery counties combined, he won by 97,811 votes.

However, Kerry won the counties by almost the same amount, by 97,452 votes. If Ron Klink did the same, we'd get a Santorum victory by 131,791 votes. Still winnable, but only if he does as good as he did in Northeastern Pennsylvania and places like Erie county as he did in 2000. Likely? Probably not.

[Smash255]

1. MT
2. PA
3. OH
4. RI
5. MO
6. TN
7. NJ
8. VA

[Soaring Eagle]

1. MT
2. PA
3. OH
4. RI
5. MO
6. TN
7. NJ
8. VA
9. AZ
10. MD
11. WA
12. NV
13. MN

The rest don't matter. I don't count CT because though Lieberman is a DINO, he is still a Democrat.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

3. mn
5. pa

OK, you win the hack award.

Mark Kennedy is only 24 points down in the latest poll.
http://www.startribune.com/587/story/683216.html

[Eraserhead]

1.PA
2.MT
3.OH
4.RI
5.MO
6.TN
7.NJ
8.VA
9.MD
10.AZ
11.MN
12.WA
13.NV
14.MI
15.FL

[Eraserhead]

1.PA
2.MT
3.OH
4.RI
5.MO
6.TN
7.NJ
8.VA
9.MD
10.AZ
11.MN
12.WA
13.NV
14.MI
15.FL

Fleming DEFINITELY has a better shot than Harris.  It's ridiculous to say otherwise.

No my friend. No he doesn't.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

1. MT
2. PA
3. OH
4. RI
5. TN
5. MO
7. NJ
8. VA

[Sam Spade]

Since I'm only paying attention to 15 races, here's how I see it:

1 - MT
2 - OH
3 - PA
4 - CT (from D to D posing as I, har har)
5 - RI
6 - NJ
7 - MO
8 - TN
9 - VA
10 - MD
11 - MN
12 - WA
13 - AZ
14 - MI
15 - NE

[Gustaf]

1. Pennsylvania
2. Ohio
3. Montana
4. Rhode Island
5. New Jersey
6. Missouri
7. Virginia
8. Tennessee
9. Maryland
10. Washington
11. Minnesota
12. Arizona
13. Nebraska

I guess you might want to put Connecticut up somewhere, but as far as party control goes, it doesn't matter. I can't think of another race that seems likely to be competitive.

[Deano963]

Phil once again you prove yourself to be the biggest hack on this entire forum. You have no facts or data to back up your idiotic claims so all you do is make up wild theories and call me names when I throw out a fact like how Rendell's turnout machine is going to work again this year. And your response?

"Things don't work out the way people want it sometime, little boy."

Highly intelligent argument there, Hack. Way to show yourself to be a head-in-the-sand partisan moron. How about an argument with some substance Hack???

Substance being that machines don't always win. Plus, you know very little about this state and its politics to begin with so don't throw out arguments like "the machine will turn out" and "Santorum is hated by Pennsylvania!" when you don't understand things.

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Are you kidding? You don't think that enough voters have stayed home in key races resulting in a loss for a favored candidate? You will never learn.

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What does that have to do with my point? I said that Rendell being up hurts him because people think the race is over and might not feel the need to vote.

Listen, I feel pretty sorry for you, kid. You must be just getting involved and don't understand how certain things can happen. Candidates can be favored to win yet collapse when their voters don't see the urgency to turn out. That's something you refuse to grasp because you are new to the game and seemingly very immature.

I have provided several facts concerning this race. I brought up specifics about Santorum's past campaigns that mirror this race but you, insisting on being a blind ideological and partisan hack motivated by a hatred for Santorum, refuse to accept these findings. I look forward to some better debates with you down the road...you know...real debates where you can bring up some good points. In the meantime, read up on what you're talking about.

The Philly burbs voted for Kerry over Bush, Rendell's base is there and he has a proven turnout operation, and Santorum will win them this year when hell freezes over.

Santorum does not need the Philly suburbs to win. "You need to win the suburban areas of Philadelphia" is the biggest myth in PA politics and this year will prove that. By the way, don't lecture me on how Santorum won't win that area when I was one of the first to admit that. It is obvious to everyone, too, so don't raise the point as if you are telling us something new.

Thanks for all of those wonderful examples and facts you used in your senseless ranting Hack. They really helped prove your point, if you even had one that is. Your posts are so incredibly stupid and juvenile it pains me to read them and makes me even more confident that your predictions are worthless.

[Smash255]

1.PA
2.MT
3.OH
4.RI
5.MO
6.TN
7.NJ
8.VA
9.MD
10.AZ
11.MN
12.WA
13.NV
14.MI
15.FL

Fleming DEFINITELY has a better shot than Harris.  It's ridiculous to say otherwise.

No my friend. No he doesn't.

No, Harris absolutely has a 0% chance of victory.  Fleming has about a 10-15% chance.

They both have an equal chance.  ZERO