Rank seats in likeliness to flip

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Right now it'd go like this:

1 - MT
2-3 - OH-PA (tie)
4 - RI
5 - MO
6 - NJ
7 - TN
8 - VA
9 - MD
10 - MN
11 - WA
12 - AZ
13 - MI
14-33 - everything else (tie)

[7,052,770]

1-PA
2-OH
3-MT
4-RI
5-NJ
6-TN
7-MO
8-VA
9-MD
10-WA
11-MN
12-AZ
13-MI
14-NV
15-MS
16-NE
17-33-the rest

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

1. PA
2. MT
3. OH
4. RI
5. MO
6. NJ
7. TN
8. VA
9. MD, MN
11. WA, MI
13. NV
14. AZ

[DownWithTheLeft]

1. OH
2. NJ
3. MT
4. RI
5. TN
6. PA
7. MO
8. MD
9. VA
10. MN
11. WA
12. MI
13. AZ
14. NE
15. VT (Idk y)
No other show flickers of competiveness

[Deano963]

1 - PA
2 - MT
3 - OH
4 - RI
5 - MO
6 - NJ
7 - TN
8 - VA
9 - MD
10 - WA
11 - AZ
12 - MN
13 - MI
14 - NV
15 - NE

16 - 33 do not have even the most remote chance of flipping.

[Deano963]

1. OH
2. NJ
3. MT
4. RI
5. TN
6. PA
7. MO
8. MD
9. VA
10. MN
11. WA
12. MI
13. AZ
14. NE
15. VT (Idk y)
No other show flickers of competiveness

This is hilarious.

[DownWithTheLeft]

1. OH
2. NJ
3. MT
4. RI
5. TN
6. PA
7. MO
8. MD
9. VA
10. MN
11. WA
12. MI
13. AZ
14. NE
15. VT (Idk y)
No other show flickers of competiveness

This is hilarious.

Typical liberal answer, don't say why you don't feel it's correct or offer a rebuttal, simply call it hilarious

Nothing I said goes complete against the facts, unlike MS being no. 15

[MarkWarner08]

1 - MT
2 - PA
3 - OH
4 - RI
5 - MO
6 - TN
7 - NJ
8 - VA
9 - MD
10 - MN
11 - WA
12 - AZ
13 - MI
14-33 - everything else (tie)

[adam]

1. MT
2. PA
3. OH
4. NJ
5. RI
6. MO
7. TN
8. VA
9. WA
10. AZ
11. NV
12. MN
13. MD
14. MI
15. TX (Yes, I'm serious)
16-33. Everything else.

[Deano963]

1. OH
2. NJ
3. MT
4. RI
5. TN
6. PA
7. MO
8. MD
9. VA
10. MN
11. WA
12. MI
13. AZ
14. NE
15. VT (Idk y)
No other show flickers of competiveness

This is hilarious.

Typical liberal answer, don't say why you don't feel it's correct or offer a rebuttal, simply call it hilarious

Nothing I said goes complete against the facts, unlike MS being no. 15

Ok genius here are your reasons. First of all, the fact you have Ohio ranked #1 is absurd:

Brown is only leading by 6 points AT MOST according to the most recent polls and he lags behind Dewine in cash by about $3 million..... compare that to Tester who is leading Burns by 9, and Burns has the worst re-elect numebrs of any incumbent Senator in the country, far worse than Dewine's.

The fact that you have NJ ranked #2 when the largest lead Kean had held is 4 points (which was still within the margin of error) and he trails by at least $6 million is absurd. Only a complete nutcase right-wing partisan would have this race ranked #2. Contrast this race to PA, where Bob Casey has held at least 20 leads in the polls that are well outside of the margin of error. Casey is close to Santorum in COH after Ricky blew a couple million on his summer ad blitz that pulled him up a littel bit, and he STILL trails by over 10.

Which brings me to you having PA ranked #6. LOL. Ok genius, if you really think there 5 seats that will flip before PA does, how about we bet on that? Don't get excited b/c Santorum has pulled to within 6 or 7 in a couple of polls. That last poll showed him behind by 18 again. This race will be won or lost in the Philly suburbs, where Rendell's turnout machine is going to ensure Santorum's fate.

Your completely idiotic rankings show either 1) someone who is completely and unbelievably ignorant of the reality and facts about these races or 2)someone who is letting their partisan blinders interfere with reason.

RI more likely to flip than PA? Ok genius, time for you to stop taking whatever prescription pain killers you are on.

How about you show me some facts as to why TN is going to flip before PA does? Typical neocon moron reasoning - you want a certain seat to flip but you have no evidence to support it, so justcall the realistic person who uses real facts a liberal. Very intelligent.

[Deano963]

Nothing I said goes complete against the facts, unlike MS being no. 15

I didn't have MS ranked 15. Good job being able to read.

[Keystone Phil]

Which brings me to you having PA ranked #6. LOL. Ok genius, if you really think there 5 seats that will flip before PA does, how about we bet on that? Don't get excited b/c Santorum has pulled to within 6 or 7 in a couple of polls. That last poll showed him behind by 18 again. This race will be won or lost in the Philly suburbs, where Rendell's turnout machine is going to ensure Santorum's fate.

There were three polls out in a week - one had him down eight, one had him down five and the other had him losing by eighteen. Outlier? Yes.

Don't bet on Rendell's turnout numbers. The race is looking very good for him which could be bad news. If people say that Rendell is up big they might not turnout. This race is not all about the SE.

[Jake]

1. Montana
[gap]
2. Ohio
3. Pennsylvania
4. Rhode Island
5. New Jersey
6. Tennessee
[gap]
7. Missouri
8. Virginia
[gap]
9. Maryland
10. Minnesota
11. Washington
12. Arizona

[WalterMitty]

1. mt
2. nj
3. mn
4. mo
5. pa
6 tn
7. oh
8. ri

the others are pretty damn safe.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

3. mn
5. pa

OK, you win the hack award.

[Keystone Phil]

1. mt
2. nj
3. mn
4. mo
5. pa
6 tn
7. oh
8. ri

the others are pretty damn safe.

Tennessee more likely to switched than Ohio? Minnesota more likely than Missouri?

[MarkWarner08]

1. mt
2. nj
3. mn
4. mo
5. pa
6 tn
7. oh
8. ri

the others are pretty damn safe.

Walter, why would a poster as smart and well-educated as yourself think Ohio is the SEVENTH most likely Senate seat to flip?

[Deano963]

Which brings me to you having PA ranked #6. LOL. Ok genius, if you really think there 5 seats that will flip before PA does, how about we bet on that? Don't get excited b/c Santorum has pulled to within 6 or 7 in a couple of polls. That last poll showed him behind by 18 again. This race will be won or lost in the Philly suburbs, where Rendell's turnout machine is going to ensure Santorum's fate.

There were three polls out in a week - one had him down eight, one had him down five and the other had him losing by eighteen. Outlier? Yes.

Don't bet on Rendell's turnout numbers. The race is looking very good for him which could be bad news. If people say that Rendell is up big they might not turnout. This race is not all about the SE.

Well, considering that an 18-point gap is just about the same gap this race has had for more than a year (evidenced by 20+ polls), yes, I would call the other polls outliers.

Your logic is shaky at best. That's what a turnout machine does, it turns out people to the polls no matter how the candidate is doing. Considering that this same turnout operation has worked for him several before, I see no reason to come to the unrealistic conclusion as you do that it just won't work this year for no particular reason. Again, your argument is pretty baseless. If people supposedly, as you say, might stay home b/c Rendell is polling so well, just what is going to drive Santorum voters to the polls when he is dong so poorly?? If you're going to use that silly argument, it works both ways.

What gets me about you Santorum supporters is that you guys all seem to be really grasping for straws when trying to argue why he is somehow going to win in your opinions. Every argument I've heard is the most hair-brained nonsense I've ever come accross.

[WalterMitty]

1. mt
2. nj
3. mn
4. mo
5. pa
6 tn
7. oh
8. ri

the others are pretty damn safe.

Walter, why would a poster as smart and well-educated as yourself think Ohio is the SEVENTH most likely Senate seat to flip?

i really dont think ohio is or will be as close as some of the polls now indicate.

phil, yes i certainly believe tn is more likely to flip than oh.  mn may be a stretch, but i think kennedy can pull it off.  talent will win in the endin mo.

i do not believe this year is going to be a democrat landslide as some seem assured of.

[Keystone Phil]

Well, considering that an 18-point gap is just about the same gap this race has had for more than a year (evidenced by 20+ polls), yes, I would call the other polls outliers.

Oh, so because a polls way back showed a double digit lead for Casey that means Santorum cannot come back no matter what? Basically, there is no way for this race to narrow, right? Wow, thank you. Respond to my post when you get a clue.

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Things don't work out the way people want it sometime, little boy.

 

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Baseless? Uh, intelligent people know that when a candidate is so far ahead people are more reluctant to turn out. Polls show Santorum with the momentum. People turn out when things are favoring their candidate while there is more of a risk of people staying home when you're so far ahead. Anyone would tell you this but you refuse to listen.

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Ok, let's say you are right. I want you to explain for me the 1990 and 1992 House races. The man has a history of running campaigns that he should have never won. Explain to me why the idea that Santorum is a far better campaigner and has the ability to come back (history proves this while you have no proof on your side) is so "hair-brained." Also address the issue of Casey being a weak campaigner and someone that throws away a tough race (again, I have proof and you don't).

I look forward to your entertaining response.

[MarkWarner08]

Well, considering that an 18-point gap is just about the same gap this race has had for more than a year (evidenced by 20+ polls), yes, I would call the other polls outliers.

Oh, so because a polls way back showed a double digit lead for Casey that means Santorum cannot come back no matter what? Basically, there is no way for this race to narrow, right? Wow, thank you. Respond to my post when you get a clue.

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Things don't work out the way people want it sometime, little boy.

 

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Baseless? Uh, intelligent people know that when a candidate is so far ahead people are more reluctant to turn out. Polls show Santorum with the momentum. People turn out when things are favoring their candidate while there is more of a risk of people staying home when you're so far ahead. Anyone would tell you this but you refuse to listen.

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Ok, let's say you are right. I want you to explain for me the 1990 and 1992 House races. The man has a history of running campaigns that he should have never won. Explain to me why the idea that Santorum is a far better campaigner and has the ability to come back (history proves this while you have no proof on your side) is so "hair-brained." Also address the issue of Casey being a weak campaigner and someone that throws away a tough race (again, I have proof and you don't).

I look forward to your entertaining response.

Rick Santorum won the Philly Suburbs in 1994 and 2000. Do you really think he can win with Rendell on the top of the ticket? Did I mention that the DCCC and the NRCC will pumping up turnout in PA-6, PA-7 and PA-8. Casey will increase turnout in the Pittsburgh area and he will cut into Santorum's pro-life base.

The confluence of anti-Bush sentiment, the targeting of the Philly Suburbs, Casey's strength in Western PA and the anti-incumbent wave will make it very hard for Santorum to win. The 72 Hour Task Force CAN'T save Rick Santorum.

[7,052,770]

Nothing I said goes complete against the facts, unlike MS being no. 15

You have no evidence other than the conventional wisdom "well, Mississippi is a pretty Republican and racist state, so surely they'll put in a racist Republican over a black Democrat" to back that up...

[Jake]

The confluence of anti-Bush sentiment, the targeting of the Philly Suburbs, Casey's strength in Western PA and the anti-incumbent wave will make it very hard for Santorum to win. The 72 Hour Task Force CAN'T save Rick Santorum.

Santorum is certainly stronger than Casey in Western Pennsylvania and the GOP turnout effort is going to be a heavy factor in Santorum's favor.

[Keystone Phil]

Rick Santorum won the Philly Suburbs in 1994 and 2000. Do you really think he can win with Rendell on the top of the ticket?

No, he won't, but that doesn't mean that he will lose.

 

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The polls seem to be showing that Santorum is gaining back that base.

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One of us will be right on November 8th (unless things get really ugly). Let's wait and see. 

[MarkWarner08]

The confluence of anti-Bush sentiment, the targeting of the Philly Suburbs, Casey's strength in Western PA and the anti-incumbent wave will make it very hard for Santorum to win. The 72 Hour Task Force CAN'T save Rick Santorum.

Santorum is certainly stronger than Casey in Western Pennsylvania and the GOP turnout effort is going to be a heavy factor in Santorum's favor.

Just just like in Eastern Oregon. A Democrat doesn't have to win it, but if he can cut the Republican's margin, he'll win the election.