Ontario Election 2022

[Krago]

If the PCs win the most seats, but fail to get a majority, there are two things that I am sure of.

If the Liberals finish second, they will say anything and do anything to get the NDP (and maybe Schreiner) to support Steven Del Duca as Premier in a coalition government.

If the Liberals finish third, they will never, NEVER support a Horwath-led NDP government.

[Krago]

“Mr. Ford, you sound like you’re reading from a script.”

- Steven Del Duca, reading from a script

[Krago]

Here is my attempt to estimate the seat outcome based on PC and Liberal polling figures.
Greens fixed at 7%, Others at 6%, and NDP is 87% - PC% - Lib%

[Krago]

The Final Legar is brutal, PC's at 40% with NDP, would be an absoulte wipeout if that actualy happend.

The final Leger has the PCs at 40%, OLP at 25% and NDP at 24%...if that actually happened the Liberals would be stuck in the low teens in seats and the NDP would definitely still be official opposition

https://leger360.com/voting-intentions/provincial-politics-in-ontario-june-1-2022/

[Krago]

Dumb question.  Where I can I find the most up-to-date Ontario election results by riding and candidate?

I downloaded each riding from Elections Ontario, but Canadian Press seems to have more polls reporting (e.g. Burlington).  But CP is missing data for some minor party candidates.

Any suggestions?

[Krago]

Dumb question.  Where I can I find the most up-to-date Ontario election results by riding and candidate?

I downloaded each riding from Elections Ontario, but Canadian Press seems to have more polls reporting (e.g. Burlington).  But CP is missing data for some minor party candidates.

Any suggestions?

Strange - the Elections Ontario figures were up-to-date yesterday (that is, each seat had all of its polls accounted for) but they don't seem to be now, although the links to the data are different.

My spreadsheet does have the riding information as complete as it can be right now (https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=453425.msg8630731#msg8630731) though the minor parties (i.e. not PC, Liberal, NDP or Green) are all lumped into the 'other' column, which may not be what you want.

EDIT: Can also look here (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16Yuhrvny4nC9oKoT-0lnAmS3Lhg1Qnm5/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=102460231885619043601&rtpof=true&sd=true); you can see the individual candidates' votes in the 'other' column, but not their party names.

Thank you very much.

In the second spreadsheet, it looks like Paul Miller's 2,411 votes in Hamilton East--Stoney Creek were missed.

[Krago]

It "benefited" from the 2 Northern/Indigenous ridings being created, as they essentially cut it off from Mushgewuk-James Bay to have a Francophone/Indigenous riding. In the next redistribution it will surely be grouped in with either Nickel-Belt or Temiskaming-Cochrane as it does not have any protections like the 2 new Northern Ridings do to stay so small, and it will revert back to ONDP at that time.

Did someone mention redistribution?

My proposal - bit.ly/Canada343 - gives 9 seats to Northern Ontario and 113 seats to Southern Ontario.  The PC majority government gets to decide whether the North keeps its current 13 provincial seats, drops to nine, or settles for a number in-between.  Doug Ford has a reputation for slashing representation, so I have a guess as to which way he'll go, especially since removing four seats in the North could endanger four New Democrats.

If the provincial Tories give the North more ridings than the federal commissioners, I hope that they finally create a Northern Ontario Provincial Boundaries Commission to review the boundaries in the area.  Most of the ridings haven't been reviewed for almost thirty years!

[Krago]

I just noticed that the None of the Above Party got over 2,000 votes in Oakville.  I guess the secret is to run a candidate with the same exact name as the PC incumbent.

https://oakvillenews.org/news/two-candidates-named-stephen-crawford-running-in-upcoming-provincial-election/

[Krago]

But I would think at the very least, it would make more sense to district Thorncliffe and Flemingdon together, as those neighbourhoods are very similar.

Your wish is my command.

[Krago]

My count is NDP 66, Lib 58.

If you toss in the Greens, the count would be NDP 65, Lib 57, Green 2.

[Krago]

Elections Ontario has published the official poll-by-poll results for the 2022 provincial election for all 124 ridings.

https://www.elections.on.ca/en/resource-centre/elections-results.html#accordionResultsProcess

Good luck trying to find a summary.