Ontario Election 2022

[DistingFlyer]

Anyone have breakdown of how regions voted?

I was thinking for main regions

416 - Toronto
905 belt
Hamilton-Niagara
Central Ontario
Southwestern Ontario
Northern Ontario
Eastern Ontario

For sub-regions

Durham
York
Peel
Halton
Hamilton
Niagara
Waterloo
London
Essex County
Ottawa
Eastern Ontario outside Ottawa

I have figures for some of those:

Metro Toronto (416)
PC - 12 MPPs (+1), 32.2% (-0.6%)
NDP - 9 MPPs (-2), 27.9% (-8.6%)
Lib - 4 MPPs (+1), 31.9% (+5.7%)

Rest of GTA (905)
PC - 29 MPPs (+3), 46.8% (+1.1%)
NDP - 1 MPP (-3), 14.4% (-12.3%)
Lib - 30.3% (+7.6%)

Eastern
PC - 13 MPPs (-1), 41.2% (-1.4%)
Lib - 4 MPPs (+1), 26.8% (+3.7%)
NDP - 2 MPPs, 21.9% (-6.6%)

Northern
NDP - 7 MPPs (-1), 33.4% (-10.9%)
PC - 6 MPPs (+2), 40.5% (+8.3%)
Lib - 11.4% (-4.2%)

The Tory vote dropped the most in Eastern Ontario, as Ottawa continues to drift away from them and the New Blue & Ontario Parties took a bite out of their rural vote.

The Tory vote rose the most in Northern Ontario; in 2018 they went up more than the provincial average (though not the most of any region), illustrating the trend that I've discussed on federal-themed threads here about that region beginning to trend towards the Tories after many years of being weak for them.


Looking at the two biggest blocs, the GTA and the rest, they break down thus:

GTA
PC - 41 MPPs (+4), 40.5% (+0.4%)
NDP - 10 MPPs (-5), 20.2% (-10.7%)
Lib - 4 MPPs (+1), 31.0% (+6.8%)

Rest of Ontario
PC - 42 MPPs (+3), 41.1% (+0.3%)
NDP - 21 MPPs (-4), 26.3% (-9.4%)
Lib - 4 MPPs, 18.6% (+2.6%)

What was Southwestern Ontario?

I have figures for the west (which is roughly Southwest plus Hamilton-Niagara):

PC - 19 MPPs (+2), 40.2% (-0.3%)
NDP - 12 MPPs (-3), 28.9% (-10.4%)
GP - 1 MPP, 7.9% (+1.3%)
Lib - 14.5% (+2.6%)
Ind - 1 MPP

The Tory vote dropped a little here too (though not as much as in the east), which seems to be due to the two minor conservative parties denting their big rural majorities, as well as of course the independent win in Haldimand - Norfolk. The latter alone accounts for more than the entire drop - if the Tory vote had stayed the same in that riding, they'd have gotten 41% in this region.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Everyone is talking about Windsor-Tecumseh but nobody mentioned how close Windsor West was. The margin was just 42-35 for the NDP, and if TOP and NBP had gone for Ford then it would have been one of the closest races in the province, coming down to just a few dozen votes breaking a 42-42 tie. Windsor West is a traditional urban NDP stronghold so the rapid growth of the Tories (and parties right of the Tories) there is a very bad sign for the NDP's prospects both provincially and federally.

Speaking of "parties right of the Tories", I thought they'd get just under 5% and together TOP and NBP won 4.5%. Had they merged they'd have done almost as well as the Greens in the popular vote and would have at least been competitive in the half dozen or so seats where one or the other was over double digits. There's clearly space for a provincial party to the right of the PCs particularly in the Southwest but it probably won't be led by Derek Sloan or the guy who named his party "New Blue" and then made its official colour yellow.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

We were talking about the name "Smith" the other day - in this election, there are 5 Smiths elected to the legislature. Dave, David, Graydon, Laura, and Todd, all Smiths, all Tories, and Dave is literally the same as David lol.

[adma]

What also helped through '85 were strong long-term incumbents like Leo Bernier and Alan Pope, and the vestigial vote of others defeated that year.  Then they in their turn started to retire or be defeated in '87, and by '90 only Harris & Eves were left, while a lot of that erstwhile diehard Northern Tory vote defaulted to Confederation of Regions, who finished ahead of the PCs in 6 and nearly 7 seats.  Harris shifted the equilibrium back to the Tories in '95, but not enough to win because of the damage done over the previous decade...

Agreed - look at what happened in Cochrane South when Alan Pope retired: from 42% in 1987 to 4.2% in 1990.

And Confederation of Regions with 9.2%.

[adma]

I know it didn't hurt when "megapolls" were first instituted in 2018, but re the talk of low turnout, low engagement, etc, I'm wondering if the overall trend t/w poll consolidation has subliminally dampered voter enthusiasm--almost with echoes of the controversy over precinct consolidation in the States.  That is, when polling subdivisions get too big and unwieldy, so does the act of getting out the ground crews and determining fine-grained bases of support; it becomes a dreary, amorphous exercise across indeterminate geography.

To take a federal case in point:  King-Vaughan underwent poll consolidation btw/2019 and 2021 (Covid-related or "efficiency"-related, or one as an alibi for the other, I don't know), and the turnout dropped from 64% to under 50%.  And given that it was a supermarginal riding that flipped from the Libs to the Cons, it seems strange that enthusiasm would wilt so much...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think as far as the results in the Windsor area are concerned, it is overwhelmingly likely that issues relating to Covid were a factor given the importance of cross-border ties to the economy of the place. When something strange happens, Occam is often our friend.

[toaster]

Timmins was a very, very exceptional one. With the popular mayor running for the PCs, and Ford putting an effort into winning the north, I could have imagined Bisson narrowly losing, which itself would have been somewhat of an upset seeing as he's held that seat for 32 straight years, even during the Howard Hampton years. I absolutely did not expect him to go down in such a landslide, or that somehow Oshawa would stay orange while Timmins goes blue. But again, northern Ontario is kind of a world of its own.

Ford's dislike of Bisson was very clear throughout the past 4 years.  He had Todd Smith fabricate a lie that Bisson mocked one of the PC Mississauga MPPs accent (English is also Bisson's second language, French being his first, btw). Ford did not like how Bisson would quote back standing rules that the PC government was breaking.

Ford promised more probably than any other riding on a $ per capita basis to Timmins. From the rebuild of HWY 101, to the ONTC, to the new Francophone Health Centre, billions upon billions, for a riding of about 40k people.  Insane. Anyway, Timmins itself should not exist as its own riding.  It "benefited" from the 2 Northern/Indigenous ridings being created, as they essentially cut it off from Mushgewuk-James Bay to have a Francophone/Indigenous riding. In the next redistribution it will surely be grouped in with either Nickel-Belt or Temiskaming-Cochrane as it does not have any protections like the 2 new Northern Ridings do to stay so small, and it will revert back to ONDP at that time.

[adma]

In the next redistribution it will surely be grouped in with either Nickel-Belt or Temiskaming-Cochrane as it does not have any protections like the 2 new Northern Ridings do to stay so small, and it will revert back to ONDP at that time.

Depends.  By that time, it might be as much of a "George Pirie" riding as it had been a "Gilles Bisson" riding previously.  And as I mentioned previously, neither NB nor T-C are immune to rightward-shifting trends--John Vanthof had less of a romp to victory than most expected, and T-C perhaps would itself have gone PC as an open seat; while the *federal* Nickel Belt riding saw the NDP in 3rd for the first time in decades last year (the provincial version, though, is far more of a long-shot, unless the Tories were headed for gigamajority status--but Timmins is too far flung to be part of *that*; at most, it might annex the "Gogama hinterland")

[MaxQue]

It will be interesting to see if similar patterns happens in Quebec in October.

[adma]

Interesting how wrong many polls and seat projections were in northern Ontario. In the end the NDP had a net loss of just one seat there and these ludicrous projection that Sol Mamakwa would lose were spectacularly wrong

It's as if the pollsters forgot how hard it is to reach rural indigenous people by telephone or on the internet.

I checked out the 2021 federal figures: in the Kenora riding advance polling that covers the rough parameters of Kiiwetinoong, the Cons got about half the vote, the NDP got about a quarter.  When it came to *e-day* votes, however, it was the *NDP* with around half the vote and the *Cons* with around a quarter.

[Krago]

It "benefited" from the 2 Northern/Indigenous ridings being created, as they essentially cut it off from Mushgewuk-James Bay to have a Francophone/Indigenous riding. In the next redistribution it will surely be grouped in with either Nickel-Belt or Temiskaming-Cochrane as it does not have any protections like the 2 new Northern Ridings do to stay so small, and it will revert back to ONDP at that time.

Did someone mention redistribution?

My proposal - bit.ly/Canada343 - gives 9 seats to Northern Ontario and 113 seats to Southern Ontario.  The PC majority government gets to decide whether the North keeps its current 13 provincial seats, drops to nine, or settles for a number in-between.  Doug Ford has a reputation for slashing representation, so I have a guess as to which way he'll go, especially since removing four seats in the North could endanger four New Democrats.

If the provincial Tories give the North more ridings than the federal commissioners, I hope that they finally create a Northern Ontario Provincial Boundaries Commission to review the boundaries in the area.  Most of the ridings haven't been reviewed for almost thirty years!

[Krago]

I just noticed that the None of the Above Party got over 2,000 votes in Oakville.  I guess the secret is to run a candidate with the same exact name as the PC incumbent.

https://oakvillenews.org/news/two-candidates-named-stephen-crawford-running-in-upcoming-provincial-election/

[DistingFlyer]

A number of newspapers & other outlets have tried to describe the size of the Tory win: number of seats, share of vote, size of majority, etc.

One way I like to look at it is by combining the number of members elected by each party and the average margin of victory of each party (or the average winning vote share); there are a couple methods for crunching the numbers, so I'll provide different figures for each election.

Method 1: multiply the number of MPPs for each party by the average numerical margin, then divide by the total number of MPPs and overall average margin
Method 2: same as above, but use percentage margin instead
Method 3: same as above, but use average winning vote share instead of average margin

These three methods don't usually produce very different results, but neither are they exactly the same; I won't list the figures produced by all three methods here, but instead just show the results from method 2 (percentage margin)

1934 - Lib 87.2%, Cons 7.4%, CCF 1.3%
1937 - Lib 89.0%, Cons 10.3% (the best Liberal figure no matter which method is used)
1943 - CCF 38.7%, PC 37.5%, Lib 20.7% (a different order of parties from the actual result; only method 3 produced same order as the legislature)
1945 - PC 82.0%, Lib 9.5%, CCF 5.7%
1948 - PC 68.2%, CCF 15.6%, Lib 12.9%
1951 - PC 93.1%, Lib 5.2%, CCF 1.0% (the Tories get the best result for any party no matter what method is used)
1955 - PC 92.3%, Lib 5.9%, CCF 1.8%
1959 - PC 82.3%, Lib 14.2%, CCF 3.5%
1963 - PC 86.6%, Lib 10.3%, NDP 3.2%
1967 - PC 73.3%, Lib 13.5%, NDP 13.2%
1971 - PC 76.1%, Lib 13.4%, NDP 10.6%
1975 - PC 35.8%, Lib 32.3%, NDP 31.9% (matches the popular vote order; only method 3 produces a result matching the seat order)
1977 - PC 47.3%, Lib 28.4%, NDP 24.2%
1981 - PC 66.3%, Lib 23.0%, NDP 10.7%
1985 - Lib 43.9%, PC 36.2%, NDP 19.9% (matches the popular vote order; all three methods produce this)
1987 - Lib 84.8%, NDP 11.8%, PC 3.3%
1990 - NDP 66.4%, Lib 20.9%, PC 12.7% (best NDP result, obviously)
1995 - PC 74.5%, Lib 17.6%, NDP 7.7%
1999 - PC 57.0%, Lib 35.6%, NDP 7.4%
2003 - Lib 79.5%, PC 13.3%, NDP 7.3%
2007 - Lib 70.1%, PC 20.8%, NDP 9.1%
2011 - Lib 43.5%, PC 41.3%, NDP 15.1% (method 1 gives the best result to the Tories)
2014 - Lib 54.3%, NDP 23.3%, PC 22.5% (methods 1 & 3 put the parties in the right order vis-a-vis actual seat & popular vote figures)
2018 - PC 61.7%, NDP 35.8%, Lib 1.5%
2022 - PC 73.2%, NDP 20.8%, Lib 4.2%

Note that minority governments (1943, 1975, 1977, 1985 & 2011) showed no party scoring above 50%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Between Bisson running again despite not being able to campaign seriously due to 'nearly dying of a coronary' and Skinner running again here in '19 despite not being able to campaign seriously due to 'nearly dying of an infection after a difficult hip operation and being almost ninety', had it occurred to social democratic parties to, perhaps, not to run longterm incumbents no longer physically capable of actually campaigning?

[Hatman 🍁]

It "benefited" from the 2 Northern/Indigenous ridings being created, as they essentially cut it off from Mushgewuk-James Bay to have a Francophone/Indigenous riding. In the next redistribution it will surely be grouped in with either Nickel-Belt or Temiskaming-Cochrane as it does not have any protections like the 2 new Northern Ridings do to stay so small, and it will revert back to ONDP at that time.

Did someone mention redistribution?

My proposal - bit.ly/Canada343 - gives 9 seats to Northern Ontario and 113 seats to Southern Ontario.  The PC majority government gets to decide whether the North keeps its current 13 provincial seats, drops to nine, or settles for a number in-between.  Doug Ford has a reputation for slashing representation, so I have a guess as to which way he'll go, especially since removing four seats in the North could endanger four New Democrats.

If the provincial Tories give the North more ridings than the federal commissioners, I hope that they finally create a Northern Ontario Provincial Boundaries Commission to review the boundaries in the area.  Most of the ridings haven't been reviewed for almost thirty years!

I've been saying this for a bit; there should be a devolved Northern Ontario Assembly.

[MaxQue]

Radio-Canada says that France Gélinas (Nickel Belt) is interested in being interim leader.

[adma]

I know that their braintrust may not have the knack of it *now*; but in case there's a "Lib Dem" future for the OLP, I'd wonder how much of *any* potential there might be for rebooting a maverick-populist spirit in that camp, a la the UK Liberal-axis "Celtic fringe" and shock-backwater-byelection-gain knack.  The last gasp of *that*, I suppose, was in Rick Johnson's byelection upset of John Tory in HKLB in 2009.  (Maybe for *that* to happen these days, there'd have to be a strategic Lib/Green alliance a la Parry Sound-Muskoka)

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Between Bisson running again despite not being able to campaign seriously due to 'nearly dying of a coronary' and Skinner running again here in '19 despite not being able to campaign seriously due to 'nearly dying of an infection after a difficult hip operation and being almost ninety', had it occurred to social democratic parties to, perhaps, not to run longterm incumbents no longer physically capable of actually campaigning?

I do wonder if this might be partly an insecurity thing - MPs and members being afraid that their voters are only ticking the box out of muscle memory and that if the familiar name retires muh trends will kick in, that sort of thing.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I know that their braintrust may not have the knack of it *now*; but in case there's a "Lib Dem" future for the OLP, I'd wonder how much of *any* potential there might be for rebooting a maverick-populist spirit in that camp, a la the UK Liberal-axis "Celtic fringe" and shock-backwater-byelection-gain knack.  The last gasp of *that*, I suppose, was in Rick Johnson's byelection upset of John Tory in HKLB in 2009.  (Maybe for *that* to happen these days, there'd have to be a strategic Lib/Green alliance a la Parry Sound-Muskoka)

The Manitoba Lib model, sort of?

[toaster]

It "benefited" from the 2 Northern/Indigenous ridings being created, as they essentially cut it off from Mushgewuk-James Bay to have a Francophone/Indigenous riding. In the next redistribution it will surely be grouped in with either Nickel-Belt or Temiskaming-Cochrane as it does not have any protections like the 2 new Northern Ridings do to stay so small, and it will revert back to ONDP at that time.

Did someone mention redistribution?

My proposal - bit.ly/Canada343 - gives 9 seats to Northern Ontario and 113 seats to Southern Ontario.  The PC majority government gets to decide whether the North keeps its current 13 provincial seats, drops to nine, or settles for a number in-between.  Doug Ford has a reputation for slashing representation, so I have a guess as to which way he'll go, especially since removing four seats in the North could endanger four New Democrats.

If the provincial Tories give the North more ridings than the federal commissioners, I hope that they finally create a Northern Ontario Provincial Boundaries Commission to review the boundaries in the area.  Most of the ridings haven't been reviewed for almost thirty years!

Even if Ford keeps the North with their current 13 seats, Timmins would surely not remain its own riding. A riding at 40k with no protections beside two ridings with twice the population (80k) would not fly.  The Gogama area between Timmins and Sudbury has maybe a few hundred people - not enough. There would have to be a full redistribution. The reason it didn't happen last time was because Timmins was created through the Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission, not as part of the full Ontario wide redistribution.

[adma]

I know that their braintrust may not have the knack of it *now*; but in case there's a "Lib Dem" future for the OLP, I'd wonder how much of *any* potential there might be for rebooting a maverick-populist spirit in that camp, a la the UK Liberal-axis "Celtic fringe" and shock-backwater-byelection-gain knack.  The last gasp of *that*, I suppose, was in Rick Johnson's byelection upset of John Tory in HKLB in 2009.  (Maybe for *that* to happen these days, there'd have to be a strategic Lib/Green alliance a la Parry Sound-Muskoka)

The Manitoba Lib model, sort of?

Well, aside from Ontario's possible work-in-progress, they're the most Lib Dem-esque in their "awkward third leg" quality.  But other than the Lamoureux machine in Winnipeg there isn't much "maverick populist" there except in spot bits and starts--their "natural" base is more of a Brahmin-establishment rump a la River Heights.  It's more "SW London" than "Celtic fringe", IOW...

[King of Kensington]

Interesting how the university towns of Kingston and Guelph have Liberal and Green MPPs, respectively.  And rather fittingly Kingston/Queen's U. is more "establishmentarian" while Guelph has a "crunchy granola" reputation.

[DL]

If I’m not mistaken St. Paul’s is the wealthiest riding in Ontario and went NDP again, go figure

[King of Kensington]

Don Valley West is the wealthiest.

Average Income

Don Valley West  $109,887
University-Rosedale  $98,820
St. Paul's  $92,952
Oakville  $81,854
Eglinton-Lawrence  $81,773

Average HH Income

Don Valley West  $216,158
Oakville  $177,283
University-Rosedale  $170,832
Eglinton-Lawrence  $162,674
St. Paul's  $155,470

Top Decile

Don Valley West  33.2%
Oakville  29.7%
Eglinton-Lawrence  27.2%
St. Paul's  24.9%
University-Rosedale  24.9%

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Don Valley West is the wealthiest.

Average Income

Don Valley West  $109,887
University-Rosedale  $98,820
St. Paul's  $92,952
Oakville  $81,854
Eglinton-Lawrence  $81,773

Average HH Income

Don Valley West  $216,158
Oakville  $177,283
University-Rosedale  $170,832
Eglinton-Lawrence  $162,674
St. Paul's  $155,470

Top Decile

Don Valley West  33.2%
Oakville  29.7%
Eglinton-Lawrence  27.2%
St. Paul's  24.9%
University-Rosedale  24.9%

The current DVW riding is kind of weird. The northern part of the riding is very wealthy and suburban, Leaside is more "old money" (but not quite Rosedale level), the Yonge Street corridor attracts a more yuppie crowd, and Thorncliffe Park is one of the lowest-income areas in the City. I guess in a way, this coalition of brahmin liberals, yuppies and low-income immigrants (in a non-"Ford Nation" part of the City in the latter case, as a similar demographic can vote more Tory in more outer parts of Toronto), is a very OLP-esque mix and not very conducive to voting for Ford. But I would think at the very least, it would make more sense to district Thorncliffe and Flemingdon together, as those neighbourhoods are very similar.