How high will turnout be in 2022?

[Xing]

Regardless of what you think the partisan results will be, how high do you think turnout will be? I'm guessing it'll be at least a bit above average for a midterm, possibly on par with 2018 levels. I'll guess around 47%.

[The Mikado]

Per electproject, VEP turnout in record high 2018 was 50% and turnout in record low 2014 was 37%. I'd say the null hypothesis is sort of an average at 44%, but OP is right that somewhat higher is reasonable. Picking 46%.

[Terlylane]

At least 70%

[Benjamin Frank]

At this point,  I'd guess somewhere between 0-100%

[Bootes Void]

Slightly less than 2018(maybe?) But definately more than a traditional midterm

[President Johnson]

Less than in 2018, but way above 2010 or 2014.

[Virginiá]

Per electproject, VEP turnout in record high 2018 was 50% and turnout in record low 2014 was 37%. I'd say the null hypothesis is sort of an average at 44%, but OP is right that somewhat higher is reasonable. Picking 46%.

That seems reasonable. 2010 VEP was 41.8%, and I'd like to think it would be higher than that, so around 45 or 46 sounds about right to me.

[Chips]

45%.

[Real Texan Politics]

At least 70%

Not even the 2020 election cracked 70 (but did come close). I'd say low to mid 50s at most.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Under 30yr olds usually go down in a midterm anyways and young people are still disillusioned by the mere fact we are still in a Pandemic

Warning to Ds, Newsom is tied on Recall, if he doesn't get 50, it's Gov Cox, I might vote to recall Newsom, he didn't give me 600 after he promised it to everyone

45 percent

It's secret ballot anyways

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't live in a swing state, but I hear from ordinary citizens, I am not planning to vote, I will vote in 2024

People aren't obligated to vote just because your ballot comes in mail

[Thank you for being a friend...]

The days of Democratic midterm turnout being low should be long gone by now.  There's plenty to come out to vote for.  One look at some of those nutjobs that could be in the House majority should be enough to scare any Democrat into showing up in 2022.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The days of Democratic midterm turnout being low should be long gone by now.  There's plenty to come out to vote for.  One look at some of those nutjobs that could be in the House majority should be enough to scare any Democrat into showing up in 2022.

If they have the House, they can't do anything but restrain spending with a D Prez

They gave all that extra Unemployment checks to people and we have a 30T deficit

[Non Swing Voter]

43-47%.  I think it could be pretty low.  A lot of Trump lovers say they will never vote again now that their hero has been ousted.  Doubt all of them are telling the truth but perhaps some are.

[Mr. Smith]

48% seems about right...not high enough to save Dems where needed...but possibly enough to give a good scare.

[Ferguson97]

Barring something like Trump making a bid for Speaker... I think it would be pretty low. Definitely below 50%.

[xavier110]

As long as the educated voters get that our democracy is under assault by violent right wing fascists, I expect turnout to be high

[MATTROSE94]

I don't live in a swing state, but I hear from ordinary citizens, I am not planning to vote, I will vote in 2024

People aren't obligated to vote just because your ballot comes in mail

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Turnout is lower in midterm but it's a 303 map especially in the Senate D's performance matches that of an INCUMBENT Prez and Biden is at 51/49 and his Election victory was 51/46

That's why Rs are slight favs to take the H, D's are favs to hold the 52/48 blue wall in Senate pending a Runoff in GA and D's are gonna lose KS Gov and pickup NH and MA Govs and I have no idea on AZ

But this is now we don't know if the Covid Recession will be over next yr, if it's not then it will certainly be over by 2024

At any rate 45 percent since under 30 don't vote, that's why Cox has a chance of unseating Gray Davis Newsom it's tied at 45

[DaleCooper]

My suspicion is that turnout will be much closer to 2014 than anything more recent, but it's so far off that this is straight from the gut.

I don't think so because both sides are still mobilized by the same kind of fear that mobilized them in 2020 and 2018. It may be closer to 2010 than 2018, but I'd be shocked if turnout dipped to below 43-44%

[The Mikado]

My suspicion is that turnout will be much closer to 2014 than anything more recent, but it's so far off that this is straight from the gut.

Very much doubt that, especially with the likelihood that Roe is overturned and abortion is turned over to the states in June/July of next year. People are going to be very motivated to have a say in their state governments with the state governments controlling abortion policy again.

[MT Treasurer]

Turnout estimates (share of 2020 voters turning out in 2022):

Nevada
DEM: ~95% (Reid machine, open casinos, CCM popularity/candidate quality, tourists😎)
GOP: ~15% (proof: NM-1 special election, GA-SEN runoffs, Laxalt)

Wisconsin
DEM: ~50% with Gallagher, ~95% if RoJo runs again
GOP: ~85% (I think Republicans will stay home pretty much everywhere without Trump on the ballot but they’ll turn out in record numbers here and in FL/NC/NH)

Pennsylvania
DEM: ~90%
GOP: ~20% (with Fetterman winning 1/3 of those)

Iowa
DEM: ~95%
GOP: ~5% (Iowa Republicans are all uneducated Trumpists and do-something-for-me populists)

New Hampshire
DEM: ~3%
GOP: ~99% (2022 will be a 2010 redux here but a 2002/1998 redux almost everywhere else)

Arizona
DEM: ~99% given the way the AZ GQP is headed
GOP: ~8% (let’s be real, low-prop Maricopa Trumpists don’t even mind Kelly)

North Carolina
DEM: ~58.12%
GOP: ~87.49% (tough, tough state for Democrats)

[pbrower2a]

Regardless of what you think the partisan results will be, how high do you think turnout will be? I'm guessing it'll be at least a bit above average for a midterm, possibly on par with 2018 levels. I'll guess around 47%.

Unusually high for a midterm election, perhaps slightly more than in the 2018 election. Voting becomes a habit. Trump still inspires voters but appalls even more.

[Sir Mohamed]

47.2%

[LabourJersey]

It'll be definitely higher than in 2014 for sure. I think 2014 was a true anomaly since the large states had no Senate races (CA, NY, TX), the governors' races where mainly incumbents winning re-election, and the Ebola "crisis" genuinely diverted attention from the races that mattered.

Since I believe that the highly educated Dems will *mostly* remain with the Dems at least through 2024, I'll guess 43-47%, probably closest to 46-47%.