Australia General Discussion 4.0: It ain’t easy under Albanese

[JimJamUK]

What has happened to Latham is genuinely extraordinary.

Did bitterness and resentment over not becoming PM simply drive him mad?

Would be genuinely interested in any of our Australian (or otherwise knowledgeable) posters explaining the Latham journey, because from the outside it’s just looks utterly bizarre.

[JimJamUK]

Aaand we're stuck with her for five more years. What a shambles.

At least you’ve got Jacqui Lambie sharing a de facto veto over government legislation ☺️

[JimJamUK]

Any chance of a flip to the ALP?

The ALP are of course downplaying their chances. It is very difficult for seats to flip from the opposition to the governing party (the ALP completely failed in Gippsland in 2008, and the Coalition failed to flip a number of marginals seats from 2014-2020) despite some speculation they could do so, so it would be a big achievement if Labor were able to do so this time.

The positives for Labor this time is that they genuinely do seem to be enjoying a big honeymoon period federally (but of course this has happened before and not resulted in flips). The Andrews government appears to have been less popular at the time of the federal election, but had a clear victory at the state election, more time has passed from the lockdowns, and is now enjoying a bit of a honeymoon period itself. Also, my crude estimate of the Senate result for Aston under compulsory preferential voting is 49% Labor, so a couple % better than the House, which suggests the already thin majority is quite soft.

[JimJamUK]

The massive fluctuations in the subsamples suggest they are not to be taken too seriously.

[JimJamUK]

Senator Jacinta Price announces the "No To the Voice" campaign.

https://fb.watch/ka3i-5QPLl/

A lot of first nations people are not feeling Albanese's vibe.

You are a liar.

www.afr.com/politics/federal/indigenous-support-for-voice-at-80pc-despite-protests-by-noisy-few-20230127-p5cfwj

Jacinta Price is just a grifter, same as Mundine. She wants to run for the HoR in 2025 and sucking up to Dutton is the best chance she has of getting preselected, while Mundine is afraid his gravy train will be cut off.

I reiterate, Meclazine, you are a liar.

Declaring the Voice to Parliament unpopular with a lot of indigenous people based on a Jacinta Price video is not methodologically sound, but I’m not sure polling will be either. A large proportion of the indigenous population is not reachable by an internet panel (particularly those in remote communities), and that section could hold significant different opinions to those who do respond to polls. I seem to remember past internet polling found levels of support for the Greens more indicative of the inner city than a representative sample of indigenous people across Australia as a whole.

[JimJamUK]

Even so, are a lot of more "traditional" indigenous people really going to vote against?

Rather falls into the "will believe it when I see it" category for me.

Well, part of the question is whether they will vote at all. Compulsory voting in practice doesn’t mean 100% turnout, as evidenced by the electorate of Lingiari (40% indigenous, very remote) having only 67% turnout of registered voters, and only 62% cast a valid vote. Nationwide it was 90% turnout and 85% casting valid votes.

But to answer your question directly, we just don’t know. I think they’ll probably be a bit less strongly in favour, but still clearly so in the event No isn’t winning in a landslide. But there’s arguments they could be a lot less in favour (rightward drift evident in 2022, crime wave, unpopular Territory Labor government etc), or even more in favour (feel they aren’t being listened to, will vote for anything that makes politicians take notices of their issues etc).

[JimJamUK]

YES

Tasmania (no Aboriginal population)
New South Wales
Victoria

NO

Queensland

UNDECIDED

Western Australia
South Australia

Tasmania has an Aboriginal population of 5.4% compared to only 3.2% nationally, so I’m not sure what you’re referring to there?

[JimJamUK]

ABC apologizes to Stan Grant.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-21/stan-grant-apology-review-racism-response/102374582

Stan Grant should be apologising to us for having to read his drivel dressed as new on the ABC News page.

His Wikipedia lists him ranting after the Queens death and supporting Lidia Thorpe, then states he considers himself a liberal person and that Scott Morrison himself tried to recruit him as a Liberal candidate. Very odd.

[JimJamUK]

So Dai Le and her ally Mayor Frank Carbone of Fairfield have decided to create a party in the vein of Jacqui Lambie’s vehicle, called the Dai Le and Frank Carbone Network - with its aim being to be a party representing Western Sydney. Could it gain more seats (and retain Le's) or is it more likely or not to flop/fail?

Bob Katter tried this in 2013 and it almost resulted in him losing his ‘safe’ seat with no gains elsewhere. It depends whether it is simply a convenient ballot paper description for Le and their council candidates or an actual attempt to elect candidates outside Fairfield/Fowler. Their press comments make it sound like the latter, but I’m not sure a party named after 2 very localist politicians would have much appeal elsewhere. Lambie did get a 2nd senator elected by convincing the same 10% of Tasmanian’s who voted for her to vote for her now colleague, but her party flopped at the 2018 state election under a similarly proportional electoral system and obviously have not proved remotely competitive in any single member districts.

[JimJamUK]

The LNP has retained the seat of Fadden on a 4% swing. An expected solid (but not outstanding result) from heartland Coalition country.

Looking like only a 2-3% swing now. Still a swing is better than no swing (or one in the opposite direction), but it’s generally been a nondescript performance by most parties, with the exception of Legalise Cannabis (very good) and the Greens (very bad).

[JimJamUK]

Pauline Hanson has sacked Mark Latham as One Nation leader in NSW. Various reasons given include electoral performance, a poor relationship with the media, and the misuse of funds (lack thereof). He’s currently facing a defamation case over homophobic comments against a fellow MP (which even Hanson felt the need to publicly condemn).

[JimJamUK]

Seems to be a power trip from Pauline Hanson and the federal executive. Australian minor parties can have very vicious infighting due to the requirements for seperate state parties and a national executive, which can get rather cliquey.

One Nation are exceptional even by that standard. Of the 35 members elected/appointed, 20 left the party during their term, often very early in it.

[JimJamUK]

And of the 15 remaining, 8 are incumbents who merely haven’t defected yet

If this escalates it’s not inconceivable another 3 will join that list, as Latham remains One Nation leader in the NSW Parliament and will presumably count on the loyalty of the other 2 MPs if he quit/got expelled. He’s there till 2031, the other 2 till 2027.

[JimJamUK]

After rocky months after defections sent him into minority government, Tasmanian Premier Jeremy Rockliff will tomorrow be calling an early election after failing to reach agreement with the defected ex-Liberals. Based on the scarce polling and general vibes, a Labor-Greens government is looking like the odds on favourite result.

It’s really hard to say. The collapse in the Liberal vote and adding 2 seats to every constituency makes it very hard to see how the Liberals could get a majority. Still, Labor and the Greens are only a little above 40% and there will presumably be some independents (ex-Labor in Clark, potential for ex-Lib among others elsewhere). There’s also the Lambie factor, as she got 20% in the most recent (and only) poll that specifically mentioned her party. She will get less than that in an actual election, but there looks to be a decently large constituency of people unhappy with both the state and federal governments and they lack many other options at the state level.

[JimJamUK]

The score in contested by-elections this Parliament is 2-1 Labor, including a flip. Labor was favoured in Dunkley, but it does speak volumes to the current state of the Liberal Party. Again though, Labor was favoured to win this.

Some other things to note: while the swing against Labor is about what's expected, ABC has noted that Labor's primary vote has held, while the reason the Liberal vote went up is because they have corralled the vote from the Hanson and Palmer Vanity parties.

Though this seems to be caused by the Greens primary vote going down even more, leading to a decent (but only that) 2PP swing to the Liberals.

[JimJamUK]

This seat was securely Liberal not that long ago, which makes it an even better result for the ALP.

In fairness the seat before the 2019 redistribution was located further south - it flipped Labor in 2019 after exchanging rich exurbia in Mornington for working-class suburbia in areas around Carrum.

Yeah, most of this electorate is fairly working class suburbs in and around Frankston, the sort of place that should always be winnable for a labour party.

[JimJamUK]

This is interesting. According to the latest Roy Morgan poll, Labor has upped the lead on 2PP while close the gap on primary votes. According to them, Albanese would be returned as Prime Minister with an increased majority.

https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9476-federal-voting-intention-march-4-2024?s=09

Just goes to show that a few months can be a lifetime in politics. Not that long ago, Dutton was on a high, convinced that he was cruising, and now it's come crashing back to Earth.

So basically we had a blip around the referendum (which Albanese inevitably took some flak for, even if it was never really his baby) and now that has worn off, things are much as they were before?

Other polling is showing a closer picture, and has been for a decent while now.