Australia General Discussion 4.0: It ain’t easy under Albanese

[GoTfan]

Looks like Dutton is getting spanked in Dunkley. If the Liberals can't even flip seats in a by-election now, how are they supposed to be flipping marginal seats in the general election?

The score in contested by-elections this Parliament is 2-1 Labor, including a flip. Labor was favoured in Dunkley, but it does speak volumes to the current state of the Liberal Party. Again though, Labor was favoured to win this.

Some other things to note: while the swing against Labor is about what's expected, ABC has noted that Labor's primary vote has held, while the reason the Liberal vote went up is because they have corralled the vote from the Hanson and Palmer Vanity parties.

[JimJamUK]

The score in contested by-elections this Parliament is 2-1 Labor, including a flip. Labor was favoured in Dunkley, but it does speak volumes to the current state of the Liberal Party. Again though, Labor was favoured to win this.

Some other things to note: while the swing against Labor is about what's expected, ABC has noted that Labor's primary vote has held, while the reason the Liberal vote went up is because they have corralled the vote from the Hanson and Palmer Vanity parties.

Though this seems to be caused by the Greens primary vote going down even more, leading to a decent (but only that) 2PP swing to the Liberals.

[GoTfan]

The score in contested by-elections this Parliament is 2-1 Labor, including a flip. Labor was favoured in Dunkley, but it does speak volumes to the current state of the Liberal Party. Again though, Labor was favoured to win this.

Some other things to note: while the swing against Labor is about what's expected, ABC has noted that Labor's primary vote has held, while the reason the Liberal vote went up is because they have corralled the vote from the Hanson and Palmer Vanity parties.

Though this seems to be caused by the Greens primary vote going down even more, leading to a decent (but only that) 2PP swing to the Liberals.

That's possible, but that is also the other story of the night. The Greens should have done very well here. They are the only ones who walk away with nothing tonight. Maybe voters are getting tired of the grandstanding from them?

[CumbrianLefty]

This seat was securely Liberal not that long ago, which makes it an even better result for the ALP.

[morgieb]

This seat was securely Liberal not that long ago, which makes it an even better result for the ALP.

In fairness the seat before the 2019 redistribution was located further south - it flipped Labor in 2019 after exchanging rich exurbia in Mornington for working-class suburbia in areas around Carrum.

[JimJamUK]

This seat was securely Liberal not that long ago, which makes it an even better result for the ALP.

In fairness the seat before the 2019 redistribution was located further south - it flipped Labor in 2019 after exchanging rich exurbia in Mornington for working-class suburbia in areas around Carrum.

Yeah, most of this electorate is fairly working class suburbs in and around Frankston, the sort of place that should always be winnable for a labour party.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

This seat was securely Liberal not that long ago, which makes it an even better result for the ALP.

In fairness the seat before the 2019 redistribution was located further south - it flipped Labor in 2019 after exchanging rich exurbia in Mornington for working-class suburbia in areas around Carrum.

Also cannot be forgotten just how popular a local MP Bruce Billson was for 20 years. Much like Anna Burke in Chisholm, a strong local member can lock down a seat through very rough elections.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

https://twitter.com/7NewsSydney/status/1762616093208924302

Didn't an Mp in the 80s randomly come to parliament drrssed as a chicken and never explained why?

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/7NewsSydney/status/1762616093208924302

Didn't an Mp in the 80s randomly come to parliament drrssed as a chicken and never explained why?

No he explained why perfectly. A friend dared him to.

[GoTfan]

This is interesting. According to the latest Roy Morgan poll, Labor has upped the lead on 2PP while close the gap on primary votes. According to them, Albanese would be returned as Prime Minister with an increased majority.

https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9476-federal-voting-intention-march-4-2024?s=09

Just goes to show that a few months can be a lifetime in politics. Not that long ago, Dutton was on a high, convinced that he was cruising, and now it's come crashing back to Earth.

[Dr. Cynic]

https://twitter.com/7NewsSydney/status/1762616093208924302

Didn't an Mp in the 80s randomly come to parliament drrssed as a chicken and never explained why?

No he explained why perfectly. A friend dared him to.

I like that his last name was Goodluck.

[CumbrianLefty]

This is interesting. According to the latest Roy Morgan poll, Labor has upped the lead on 2PP while close the gap on primary votes. According to them, Albanese would be returned as Prime Minister with an increased majority.

https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9476-federal-voting-intention-march-4-2024?s=09

Just goes to show that a few months can be a lifetime in politics. Not that long ago, Dutton was on a high, convinced that he was cruising, and now it's come crashing back to Earth.

So basically we had a blip around the referendum (which Albanese inevitably took some flak for, even if it was never really his baby) and now that has worn off, things are much as they were before?

[JimJamUK]

This is interesting. According to the latest Roy Morgan poll, Labor has upped the lead on 2PP while close the gap on primary votes. According to them, Albanese would be returned as Prime Minister with an increased majority.

https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9476-federal-voting-intention-march-4-2024?s=09

Just goes to show that a few months can be a lifetime in politics. Not that long ago, Dutton was on a high, convinced that he was cruising, and now it's come crashing back to Earth.

So basically we had a blip around the referendum (which Albanese inevitably took some flak for, even if it was never really his baby) and now that has worn off, things are much as they were before?

Other polling is showing a closer picture, and has been for a decent while now.

[GoTfan]

This is interesting. According to the latest Roy Morgan poll, Labor has upped the lead on 2PP while close the gap on primary votes. According to them, Albanese would be returned as Prime Minister with an increased majority.

https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9476-federal-voting-intention-march-4-2024?s=09

Just goes to show that a few months can be a lifetime in politics. Not that long ago, Dutton was on a high, convinced that he was cruising, and now it's come crashing back to Earth.

So basically we had a blip around the referendum (which Albanese inevitably took some flak for, even if it was never really his baby) and now that has worn off, things are much as they were before?

Other polling is showing a closer picture, and has been for a decent while now.

I generally trust Roy Morgan pretty closely. It is true that other polls are telling us a different story. What is clear is that Dutton will have a hard time flipping those outer suburban seats, and he needs to win those or take back the Teal seats. In Australia, dislodging independents is very difficult.

[CumbrianLefty]

And some other polling being better for the coalition doesn't really alter my statement.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Paul Keating has continued his spiral of CCP hackery, lashing out both at Penny Wong, for thinking China is a threat to ASEAN, and a broadside at the ASIO chief for daring to suggest that a Chinese spy in Parliament is a threat to Australia. Albo and the whole cabinet are all coming out to defend her unusually strongly for an intra party spat.

In short, Keating is going full Gerhard Schröder. Peak comedy.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://amp.theage.com.au/national/victoria/guy-silence-on-freemasons-membership-raises-conflict-questions-20240227-p5f83k.html

In other news, it turns out Matthew Guy is an honest to god Freemason. The Victorian Liberal party outdoes itself yet again. There is but one thing to say: How could Dan Andrews let this happen!!!

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The LNP has had a very strong performance across the Queensland local elections and by-elections. They look to have gained Ipswich West on a 17% swing, and have a monster 22% in Palaszczuk's uber safe seat of Inala. The Brisbane Liberals have also had a very strong night, keeping their strong grip on the Lord Mayor's office and the council chamber. All in all extremely foreboding results for Steven Miles and state Labor, with the state election only 7 months away.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Labor has gained the South Australian seat of Dunstan, vacated by ex-Premier Steven Marshall. Yet another failure for Adelaide Liberals.

[CumbrianLefty]

Tasmania likely to remain in the right's control, but it was closer than many expected and has to count as yet another underwhelming result for them.

[GoTfan]

Well, it turns out that Tim Wilson has been preselected for GOldstein . . . three years after he lost Goldstein to a Teal named Zoe Wilson

Will be very interesting to see this. If Dutton can't make inroads in those outer suburban seats in Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide-and it's looking tougher for him with the Dunstan defeat-then they have to win back the Teal seats. Now, for reasons that people smarter than me can explain, unseating independents in Australia is extremely difficult, so it looks like an uphill battle.

[TheTide]

Well, it turns out that Tim Wilson has been preselected for GOldstein . . . three years after he lost Goldstein to a Teal named Zoe Wilson

Will be very interesting to see this. If Dutton can't make inroads in those outer suburban seats in Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide-and it's looking tougher for him with the Dunstan defeat-then they have to win back the Teal seats. Now, for reasons that people smarter than me can explain, unseating independents in Australia is extremely difficult, so it looks like an uphill battle.

I'm not quite an expert on this matter, but I suspect it's because members of either of the two majors have to devote more time to internal party (and ministerial, if they get that high up) matters. Independents have more opportunity to 'nurse' their seats. It's possibly no coincidence that Bob Katter's majority in Kennedy took a big hit in 2013 when the Parliamentary numbers meant that he had had to devote more time to Canberra.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I don’t know if the old truism about independents will really apply to Teals though. They are incredibly ideologically fixed and don’t have that local pragmatism. We’ve also seen at the NSW and Victorian state elections that both parties are quickly adapting to fighting them off.

I’d bet that when the Coalition sweeps back into power (which ain’t happening under Dutton, let’s be real) all the teals will be swept up and tied to their track record of ideological stances that diametrically oppose their electorates. And for all the talk a grand ideological shift - as a voter in a teal seat there was only one issue that worked. Climate. Once the Federal Coalition gets over the climate debate the teals lose their purpose.

[CumbrianLefty]

I don’t know if the old truism about independents will really apply to Teals though. They are incredibly ideologically fixed and don’t have that local pragmatism. We’ve also seen at the NSW and Victorian state elections that both parties are quickly adapting to fighting them off.

I’d bet that when the Coalition sweeps back into power (which ain’t happening under Dutton, let’s be real) all the teals will be swept up and tied to their track record of ideological stances that diametrically oppose their electorates. And for all the talk a grand ideological shift - as a voter in a teal seat there was only one issue that worked. Climate. Once the Federal Coalition gets over the climate debate the teals lose their purpose.

Yes, but when will that actually happen?  If anything, climate change denial seems to be becoming *more* popular amongst much of the right rather than less.

[TheTide]

I don’t know if the old truism about independents will really apply to Teals though. They are incredibly ideologically fixed and don’t have that local pragmatism. We’ve also seen at the NSW and Victorian state elections that both parties are quickly adapting to fighting them off.

I’d bet that when the Coalition sweeps back into power (which ain’t happening under Dutton, let’s be real) all the teals will be swept up and tied to their track record of ideological stances that diametrically oppose their electorates. And for all the talk a grand ideological shift - as a voter in a teal seat there was only one issue that worked. Climate. Once the Federal Coalition gets over the climate debate the teals lose their purpose.

Yes, I was going to say that the Teals are already a collective brand. The trick for Dutton or any other Liberal leader is to turn them (in the minds of the crucial voters) into a defacto party (Labor Lite or something along those lines). They are probably safe for as long as the current Labor government remains popular (or not unpopular), but when it isn't, then they are in trouble.