Will Stephen Breyer retire this summer?

[SnowLabrador]

He had better. It needs to be THIS summer, too, because a SCOTUS confirmation battle in 2022 can only help the GOP in the midterms.

[Sir Mohamed]

I thought so until few weeks ago, but grown skpetical. In a worst case scenario he'll wait to around 2025 and we're even lucky that Biden won reelection or Harris became POTUS, but the GOP senate blocks a nominee for the entire remainder of term before a GOPers is elected prez in 2028 to fill the vacancy. Then Alito and Thomas retire and there's a 7-2 conservative majority for 35+ years.

[Bootes Void]

He had better. It needs to be THIS summer, too, because a SCOTUS confirmation battle in 2022 can only help the GOP in the midterms.

Why would that be?

[Sir Mohamed]

He had better. It needs to be THIS summer, too, because a SCOTUS confirmation battle in 2022 can only help the GOP in the midterms.

Why would that be?

Because the OP is a doomer.

That said, the GOP could use a female black SCOTUS nominee, as Biden promised, to fearmonger.

[Donerail]

Breyer does not seem like the kind of person to pass on writing (even if it's writing a dissent) in cases like Dobbs or NYSRPA. I'd expect him to retire in June 2022.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, he has 1 more yr left on the Crt if he decides to retire before the midterm, he isn't sick and D's can easily win in 2024 anyways

He says he isn't partisan unlike Kennedy whom pretended to be a Moderate and gave the seat to Trump

[Del Tachi]

I thought so until few weeks ago, but grown skpetical. In a worst case scenario he'll wait to around 2025 and we're even lucky that Biden won reelection or Harris became POTUS, but the GOP senate blocks a nominee for the entire remainder of term before a GOPers is elected prez in 2028 to fill the vacancy. Then Alito and Thomas retire and there's a 7-2 conservative majority for 35+ years.

Very optimistic of you to assume Sotomayor can hold out beyond 2028 lol

[TML]

It’s not necessarily impossible that he may end up pulling an Anthony Kennedy (who retired despite hiring clerks as usual). However, it does seem that he doesn’t want to give the appearance that he’s being forced into retirement - instead, he wants it to seem like he’s doing so at his own volition.

On another note, it seems that the best way to “force” him into retirement is not to put pressure on himself, but rather to have people in the executive and legislative branches call for his retirement.

[brucejoel99]

David Lat put out a great twitter thread on this the other day, but there's basically a litany of reasons to suspect that he'll retire next summer instead of this summer: loving the job, wanting to hear next year's historic abortion & affirmative action cases even if it's as a dissenter, not wanting to go without taking part in more in-person oral arguments as opposed to leaving right now when they're still remote over-the-phone, & - of course - his having already hired a full slate of clerks.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why would Breyer retire before 2024 the Senate map is pro D thru 2024, which secures Biden Reelection because Baldwin and Bob Casey Jr and Stabenow secures the Rust belt

The Generic ballot is plus 10 the Rs due to backtracking on Commission aren't even gonna win the H, he can stay on thru 2027 and if D's secure the Trifecta next time DC Statehood is a certainly

Breyer knows his Health situation and he knows when to retire

[Vosem]

Has Sotomayor hired a full slate of clerks yet? She'd been delaying doing so and I sort of suspect she is likelier to retire this summer.

[Donerail]

Has Sotomayor hired a full slate of clerks yet? She'd been delaying doing so and I sort of suspect she is likelier to retire this summer.

She's hired three so far.

[Skill and Chance]

Has Sotomayor hired a full slate of clerks yet? She'd been delaying doing so and I sort of suspect she is likelier to retire this summer.

Yes, I think it's going to be Sotomayor and then Breyer, much like it was Souter before Stevens under Obama. 

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

If I had a successor being groomed already, I’d want her to have a year on an appeals court rather than a few months.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

My guess is summer 2020.

[SenatorCouzens]

Probably next summer, I'm guessing.

1. He wants a normal last term with in person arguments, etc. And he doesn't want a retirement party over zoom.

2. He doesn't like being told to retire as it makes it seem like he's being political if he does. A stray op-ed is one thing, but the constant stream of them is a bit much. That bus billboard telling him to retire was cringey beyond belief and is twitter come to real life.

3. He's confident the 50 Democratic seats in the Senate will hold at least until the election.

4. Too much chaos already. Scalia dies in an election year, Kennedy retires as normal but Kavanaugh replacement chaos, Ginsburg dies in an election year. Three new colleagues, pandemic, talks of packing the court... I'm guessing John Roberts personally requested he stay on another year given how tumultuous the last few years have been at the court.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Probably next summer, I'm guessing.

1. He wants a normal last term with in person arguments, etc. And he doesn't want a retirement party over zoom.

2. He doesn't like being told to retire as it makes it seem like he's being political if he does. A stray op-ed is one thing, but the constant stream of them is a bit much. That bus billboard telling him to retire was cringey beyond belief and is twitter come to real life.

3. He's confident the 50 Democratic seats in the Senate will hold at least until the election.

4. Too much chaos already. Scalia dies in an election year, Kennedy retires as normal but Kavanaugh replacement chaos, Ginsburg dies in an election year. Three new colleagues, pandemic, talks of packing the court... I'm guessing John Roberts personally requested he stay on another year given how tumultuous the last few years have been at the court.

I agree completely with everything you said.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Probably next summer, I'm guessing.

1. He wants a normal last term with in person arguments, etc. And he doesn't want a retirement party over zoom.

2. He doesn't like being told to retire as it makes it seem like he's being political if he does. A stray op-ed is one thing, but the constant stream of them is a bit much. That bus billboard telling him to retire was cringey beyond belief and is twitter come to real life.

3. He's confident the 50 Democratic seats in the Senate will hold at least until the election.

4. Too much chaos already. Scalia dies in an election year, Kennedy retires as normal but Kavanaugh replacement chaos, Ginsburg dies in an election year. Three new colleagues, pandemic, talks of packing the court... I'm guessing John Roberts personally requested he stay on another year given how tumultuous the last few years have been at the court.

Why would he retire next summer and Biden will win reelection and the Senate map is good for D's thru 2026 if we do lose the H it can be won back anyways, Rs aren't gonna win 20/30 seatsin 2024 or 2026

As I stated previously, Casey and Baldwin and Stabenow secures the Reelection of Biden since they won landslides in 2018

Breyer doesn't have a terminal illness, and Scalia was a freak accident, he died in his sleep, that usually doesn't happen unless you are close to death. Sleep rejuvenates the body not kills it

[Terlylane]

I think he waits until 2022.

[Sir Mohamed]

Has Sotomayor hired a full slate of clerks yet? She'd been delaying doing so and I sort of suspect she is likelier to retire this summer.

Yes, I think it's going to be Sotomayor and then Breyer, much like it was Souter before Stevens under Obama. 

Not sure. She's only turning 67 this year and 12 years on the bench.

I just wish Thomas would retire. Would also be ironic for Biden to select his replacement after Anita Hill.

[Skill and Chance]

Has Sotomayor hired a full slate of clerks yet? She'd been delaying doing so and I sort of suspect she is likelier to retire this summer.

Yes, I think it's going to be Sotomayor and then Breyer, much like it was Souter before Stevens under Obama. 

Not sure. She's only turning 67 this year and 12 years on the bench.

I just wish Thomas would retire. Would also be ironic for Biden to select his replacement after Anita Hill.

Sotomayor has more health issues than average for her age and is one of the most explicitly partisan justices overall, the most partisan on the left by a mile (Alito and Thomas are the competition).   

[SenatorCouzens]

Has Sotomayor hired a full slate of clerks yet? She'd been delaying doing so and I sort of suspect she is likelier to retire this summer.

Yes, I think it's going to be Sotomayor and then Breyer, much like it was Souter before Stevens under Obama.  

Not sure. She's only turning 67 this year and 12 years on the bench.

I just wish Thomas would retire. Would also be ironic for Biden to select his replacement after Anita Hill.

That would be ironic. It would also be ironic if Thomas is the opinion author striking down any major law or executive order Biden manages to pass.

30 years after the confirmation fiasco, both are possible.

[brucejoel99]

Has Sotomayor hired a full slate of clerks yet? She'd been delaying doing so and I sort of suspect she is likelier to retire this summer.

Yes, I think it's going to be Sotomayor and then Breyer, much like it was Souter before Stevens under Obama.  

Not sure. She's only turning 67 this year and 12 years on the bench.

I just wish Thomas would retire. Would also be ironic for Biden to select his replacement after Anita Hill.

Sotomayor has more health issues than average for her age and is one of the most explicitly partisan justices overall, the most partisan on the left by a mile (Alito and Thomas are the competition).  

Plus, it's not like retiring would exactly diminish her public profile: she's already an icon for many, & she'd still be able to maintain chambers & a clerk at the Court, plus sit on circuit court panels (or as a visiting district court judge if that's what she wanted to do), so it's not like she'd be exiled or anything. Of course, the alternative is committing herself to the grind that is the Court itself 'til she's in her 80s & potentially locking herself out of a retirement politically, which she might be fine or - at the very least - able to live with, as god only knows that RBG, Marshall, & Brennan all were, but she may have other plans, especially since her views unfortunately render the possibility of her ever writing a landmark opinion unlikely.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 6-3 Crt why would ant of the Liberals retire in Bidens first term anyways it won't change the balance. Biden is gonna win Reelection anyways and most likely D's keep the Senate.  The Rs aren't taking the Senate in 2022/2024 and PA leans D the pivitol race of the Election

[NewYorkExpress]

Honestly, of all of the current justices, I'd bet on Roberts being the next to retire.

He just seems fed up with trying maintain the peace on the court.