This Wretched Hive Of Scum And Villainy

[Torrain]

One of the few areas where it's the Greens who are actually growing at the expense the Tories, and is a target for gains locally. Lots of debate in that regard whether the amorphous Green local brand can transfer over to national which has a left-of-labour identity presently.

Ah - hadn't realised that was one of the local authorities where the Greens had moved into second place. Will be interesting to see how that one plays out next week.

Lib-Dem attempts at tactical voting (in a hypothetical by-election) could be upended if the local council ends up as some Green-dominated minority/coalition.

[CumbrianLefty]

Solihull is (in)famous for the Greens winning in areas that previously voted BNP.

[Torrain]

Solihull is (in)famous for the Greens winning in areas that previously voted BNP.

Ah. That has... unfortunate implications.

Brings a much darker undertone to the "not in my backyard" stuff.

[YL]

Solihull is (in)famous for the Greens winning in areas that previously voted BNP.

Not in Solihull constituency though.  There is some Green strength there, in Shirley, but I would be surprised if the Lib Dems fail to establish themselves as the challengers in the event that there does end up being a by-election there.

The BNP/Green ward in Solihull council area is Chelmsley Wood, which is in Meriden constituency and is part of the heavily deprived Birmingham fringe estate also called Chelmsley Wood.  It's not unique.

[JimJamUK]

The Greens have run into local difficulties in Solihull council area so I wouldn’t expect them to feature much in a by-election (they didn’t in North Shropshire despite council strength in Oswestry).

[CumbrianLefty]

Parliamentary by-elections remain a black spot for them generally, for fairly obvious reasons tbf.

[Torrain]

The MP for Hendon, Matthew Offord is retiring.

Majority of 4,230 in 2019, but only 1,072 in 2017. Another bellwether seat that was Labour 1997-2010, before flipping to the Conservatives. It's also in Greater London (albeit on the outskirts, so not exactly a fun place to be a Tory right now).

Offord supported Johnson in both his initial 2019 run for leader, and his attempted 2022 comeback. He was also one of the 22 MPs who voted against the Windsor Framework. He's only 53.

Labour have put up their 2019 candidate for the seat, a former SPAD for Alistair Darling.

[CumbrianLefty]

Was this misfired Sue Gray stunt Dowden's idea?

Almost impressive speed if so, given how recently he was returned to government.

[Torrain]

Was this misfired Sue Gray stunt Dowden's idea?

Almost impressive speed if so, given how recently he was returned to government.

Appears to be a Case-Dowden screwup (disclaimer - Peston).

Funny thing is, Dowden has been Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster since Sunak got into No.10. You'd have thought that he'd have been more careful, especially now he's in the spotlight, after being made DPM.

[Torrain]

Reports from several quarters that Sebastian Payne, formerly of the Financial Times, and now head of the Onward think-tank is trying to secure the Conservative nomination for a Westminster seat.

Quite possibly the closest the Tories will come to a “celebrity” (within the Westminster bubble, at least) candidate for next year.

[JimJamUK]

Reports from several quarters that Sebastian Payne, formerly of the Financial Times, and now head of the Onward think-tank is trying to secure the Conservative nomination for a Westminster seat.

Quite possibly the closest the Tories will come to a “celebrity” (within the Westminster bubble, at least) candidate for next year.

One of the people most instrumental in pushing the ‘Red Wall’ narrative in the media, can’t say he will be missed. Let’s hope Matthew Goodwin gets announced as a Reform candidate soon as well.

[Torrain]

Let’s hope Matthew Goodwin gets announced as a Reform candidate soon as well.

You sure he’s not looking at Reclaim?

After some of those eugenics comments, even Tice might get a little jumpy about what he’ll say next.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Reports from several quarters that Sebastian Payne, formerly of the Financial Times, and now head of the Onward think-tank is trying to secure the Conservative nomination for a Westminster seat.

Quite possibly the closest the Tories will come to a “celebrity” (within the Westminster bubble, at least) candidate for next year.

The FT's editorial line seems to have moved pretty left-wing in recent years. Kind of suprised one of theirs would run for the conservative nomination.

[Torrain]

The FT's editorial line seems to have moved pretty left-wing in recent years. Kind of suprised one of theirs would run for the conservative nomination.

Payne’s been running Onward (which is supportive of the Tories) for about 4-5 months, and has produced a bunch of policy papers for the Tories about “the future of conservatism” - so he’s already crossed the rubicon from ostensibly impartial journalism into Conservative politics.

[CumbrianLefty]

Payne's politics were always almost hilariously obvious, though.

A classic of his remains a visit to Gateshead in the 2017 GE campaign, when everybody he talked to just happened to hate Corbyn - and from this he thought this rock solid Labour seat might actually go Tory. In the event, this failed to happen by a modest 17.3k votes.

[EastAnglianLefty]

FWIW Payne is probably unlikely to run this time, but mostly because the seats he'd have a decent shot at winning are likely to either go Labour or be uncomfortably marginal this time. Expect to see him on a ballot paper in 2029 instead.

[Oryxslayer]

FWIW Payne is probably unlikely to run this time, but mostly because the seats he'd have a decent shot at winning are likely to either go Labour or be uncomfortably marginal this time. Expect to see him on a ballot paper in 2029 instead.

I mean there are still a little over 100 seats that should be safe for the Conservatives.  If the party wants anyone in particular to survive what is coming, they'll move said person to one of these seats where the incumbent is old and has announced retirement  - or a new seat created through redistribution in the same geographic regions. 

Which means the question we should br asking is: does the party care that much about this guy?

[CumbrianLefty]

The success rate of journalists who go into elected politics is somewhat hit and miss.

[Blair]

I think it's plausible he'll get a seat; there's at least a handful of ultra safe seats and the Tories have a very long history of parachuting people like him (e.g the politically connected)- there is ofc the risk he does a Cameron in '97 and gets a seat that looks safe but ends up losing.

The very funny thing is that he's having to spend a year going on Politics Today and engaging in other forms of public whipping to boost his chance- in THIGMOO it would be spent as a regional organiser battling CLPs...

[Blair]

That aside the race to be the next leader of the opposition is starting; briefing against Kemi B over the EU retained law bill, and Priti Patel making an intervention.

The interesting thing is that no-one is making the case for Sunak to stay; he clearly would not want to do it but depending on how things go you could see a relatively strong case for him and it would stop the hilarity of Braverman being LOTO.

[Blair]

There’s a reason a lot of people don’t move this way and those that have done or have considered it are usually more talented- I look forward to him either losing or having to spend 5 years talking about the little dribbling village fair.

[JimJamUK]

https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1657457178435788801
No idea what he’d bring to the party, beyond the ability to negotiate half a deal, piss off devolution-supporters, and inject weird populism into the party.

Frost went from a 2016 Remainer to star of the Tory right whose opinions are regularly plastered all over the right wing newspapers front pages, but who not a single normal person would ever have heard of. Utterly bizarre obsession. This story will presumably go the same way as the claim he was going to be the Tory candidate at the Wakefield by-election and have his amazing popularity hold the seat for them against all odds.

[Torrain]

The other bit of party weirdness happening this weekend is the first conference for the Conservative Democracy Organisation. Run by Priti Patel and Lord Cruddas, they've spent a lot of time denying it's a trojan horse for the Bring Back Boris movement.

That line collapsed by midday, with both Cruddas and Patel directly calling for him to be re-appointed PM in their remarks. The man himself didn't attend, but attendees where treated to a pre-recorded message from Big Brother:

The speakers from Westminster all represent close allies of Johnson, including Rees-Mogg, Dorries, and Andrea Jenkyns (who opened the conference by operatically singing the national anthem - including the more... aggressive verses).

[CumbrianLefty]

Tory Momentum with knobs on, good luck with that eh.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Tory Momentum with knobs on, good luck with that eh.

Momentum was always - as I once overheard a then senior member of the Welsh Government say on a train! - a bit of a paper tiger, as its post-2019 trajectory as demonstrated. This feels like it might be a little different: for one thing it's not really post-hoc in the same way, which was really always one of Momentum's big problems...