Census Population Estimates 2020-29

[ProgressiveModerate]

DATA RELEASE


NEW YORK CITY POPULATION

Between July 01, 2020 and July 01, 2021

+29,572 Natural Increase
+12,695 Net International Migration
-342,449 Net Domestic Migration
-5,283 Residual

From Census Day 2020 to July 01, 2021

+38,564 Natural Increase
+12,952 Net International Migration
-383,105 Net Domestic Migration
-5,088 Residual

Population 8,467,513
(down 3.48% since July 01, 2020)
(down 3.82% since Census 2020)


2021 was a uniquely bad year for New York City, but it's likely to revert back to pre-COVID levels of population change soon (especially as international migration starts up again and people stop leaving the city en-masse)

That doesn't mean it's about to grow, but the declines over the coming years are probably going to be far more modest.

I swear you have something against NY(C). On the ground here there is still a lot of development suggesting more folks are moving here so colour me skeptical.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Bro Dallas is gonna be huge both in terms of raw population but also size. I wonder if one day Kaufman County will be like Collin County.

Exurban growth is possibly one silver lining for the gop in Texas as a lot of it still nets R votes even if the % margin is refuced

I’m a bit hesitant to believe those nyc numbers though.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Wisconsin’s Department of Administration released their population estimates from 2020-June 2022. It states that Wisconsin added 53,700 people from The 2020 census to now. That seems a bit high, but if we are gaining people from Chicago (which it looks like Kenosha, Walworth, and Waukesha are adding people) that might be the case. Of the 53,700 new Wisconsinites, top gainers are:

Dane +20,661
Brown +4,420
Waukesha +3,791
St Croix +2,733
Calumet +2,555
Eau Claire +2,309
Outagamie +2,233
Washington + 1,468
LaCrosse +1,342
Rock +1,272


Biggest Losers in Population were the following
Milwaukee -1,574
Grant -767
Dodge -574
(All other population losses were under 100 people, with Ashland being the next at -90).

The state DOA says 12 counties lost population, but most of them were marginal (less than 100 people)
Of the 60 counties that gained population, 21 had a gain of less than 100 people.

Full results here: https://doa.wi.gov/DIR/Prelim_Est_Co_2022.pdf

Dane is really the MVP for Dems in WI. Extremely blue for a city of its size, high turnout, and the fastest growing part of the state and has been able to overcome a lot of brutal shifts for Dems. Will it be enough going forwards? We’ll see.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Idaho gaining a 3rd seat is baked in if it wasn't a given already.

Massachusetts shrinking outright is def interesting given it seemed to hold up ok last decade and at face value seems desirable for quite a few reasons, especially with the fleeing from northeastern cities during covid.

Maine also sticks out given it has historically been stagnant. My guess would be it's sort of a Colorado case where people move their because of it's beauty and stuff, and I hope that's enough to hold it in the D column for a while.

Oregon and Washington slowing down is also notable. Originally, I thought WA would be favored to gain an 11th seat but now that's more in question.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Do ya'll think NJ will keep 12 districts? Traditionally, it's lost a district every other census so if the pattern continues, you'd expect it to lose in 2030, but it did outperform expectations a bit in 2020 thanks to unexpectedly strong growth right outside NYC. Was some of this growth potentially just because of COVID and/or an overestimate, cause I just find it rlly suprising that growth is hitting Newark so much of all places; I don't see much development out there and Newark doesn't seem particuarly desireable.

Jersey City makes a bit more sense though, 40+ floor apartment buildings are popping up left and right

[ProgressiveModerate]

Idaho with three districts will work so much better anyway.

The Coeur D'Alene district will probably still have to take in a bit of the Boise area unfortunately, at least under a distribution like current numbers.

Keep in mind that Idaho has an independent commission in the state constitution.  If the natural population #'s favor an all-Boise district, we can expect to get one.

Yeah, but my point is that the remainder of the Boise area will have to go with the Panhandle:



That still sucks, since places like Caldwell or Mountain Home are pretty remote from the north.

Tbf, with any number of districts the rural mountain states with pockets of urban areas are going to be annoying and Idaho is def the worst offender.

It'd still be an improvement from the current map which splits Treasure Valley down the middle.

It'd be really satisfying if Ada County ends up being exactly 1 congressional district. It'd probably be D-leaning by 2030 which is weird to think about.

[ProgressiveModerate]

In a few decades Idaho will have 4 or 5 seats and North Idaho will have enough population for a seat all to itself, without having to drop down into Boise. That's gonna give us some seriously fun primaries.

A 4-5 seat Idaho is probably at most a Lean R state given who's moving in.  That's interesting to think about. 

Not necessarily, it depends upon where that growth is coming from. If Boise and the Treasure Valley were to hypothetically go full Denver on us these next few decades, then Idaho would become a D-leaning state (assuming partisan coalitions stay somewhat familiar). If we see disproportionate growth in Mormon areas or the Panhandle where transplants lean hard right, then ID will stay as deep R and could even get redder.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why has Alabama been holding up decently these past few years, especially compared to MS, LA, and AR?

AL doesn't seem particularly desirable and doesn't have really have spawning industry in many of it's major cities outside of maybe Huntsville, which is a very small portion of the state.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why has Alabama been holding up decently these past few years, especially compared to MS, LA, and AR?

AL doesn't seem particularly desirable and doesn't have really have spawning industry in many of it's major cities outside of maybe Huntsville, which is a very small portion of the state.

Is Baldwin County showing fast growth?

Yes, but Mobile is shrinking pretty badly iirc

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why has Alabama been holding up decently these past few years, especially compared to MS, LA, and AR?

AL doesn't seem particularly desirable and doesn't have really have spawning industry in many of it's major cities outside of maybe Huntsville, which is a very small portion of the state.

Arkansas (which also has a very high population growth rate relative to the nation) and Alabama both are emerging into the new South the same way Tennessee did

Huntsville and Fayetteville are both engines of growth in the new states but Birmingham and Little Rock are also holding up well.


The only Southern states* left with domestic migration problems are Mississippi and Louisiana.

*Excluding the Mid-Atlantic region of Virginia, Maryland, and DC but they barely count

Glad for Arkansas cause a hypothetical 3 seat AR down the road would suck.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This would obv be a massive upset, but is OR at risk of losing the 6th seat it gained from 2020?

Seems like Portland particularly has had slowed growth for a variety of reasons

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why has Alabama been holding up decently these past few years, especially compared to MS, LA, and AR?

AL doesn't seem particularly desirable and doesn't have really have spawning industry in many of it's major cities outside of maybe Huntsville, which is a very small portion of the state.

Arkansas (which also has a very high population growth rate relative to the nation) and Alabama both are emerging into the new South the same way Tennessee did

Huntsville and Fayetteville are both engines of growth in the new states but Birmingham and Little Rock are also holding up well.


The only Southern states* left with domestic migration problems are Mississippi and Louisiana.

*Excluding the Mid-Atlantic region of Virginia, Maryland, and DC but they barely count

Glad for Arkansas cause a hypothetical 3 seat AR down the road would suck.

One can expect that if AR keeps 4 seats, the NW AR seat will keep shrinking more and more.

Rs might try to crack it eventually but which would suck. Rn it’s Trump + 23.2 which should be more than fine for this decade, but if the district keeps shredding the outermost rurals, it could narrow pretty rapidly.

Is a commission possible in AR? Ik there’s ballot initiative but it’s weaker than some other states.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why has Alabama been holding up decently these past few years, especially compared to MS, LA, and AR?

AL doesn't seem particularly desirable and doesn't have really have spawning industry in many of it's major cities outside of maybe Huntsville, which is a very small portion of the state.

Arkansas (which also has a very high population growth rate relative to the nation) and Alabama both are emerging into the new South the same way Tennessee did

Huntsville and Fayetteville are both engines of growth in the new states but Birmingham and Little Rock are also holding up well.


The only Southern states* left with domestic migration problems are Mississippi and Louisiana.

*Excluding the Mid-Atlantic region of Virginia, Maryland, and DC but they barely count

Glad for Arkansas cause a hypothetical 3 seat AR down the road would suck.

One can expect that if AR keeps 4 seats, the NW AR seat will keep shrinking more and more.

Rs might try to crack it eventually but which would suck. Rn it’s Trump + 23.2 which should be more than fine for this decade, but if the district keeps shredding the outermost rurals, it could narrow pretty rapidly.

Is a commission possible in AR? Ik there’s ballot initiative but it’s weaker than some other states.

A commission should be possible in Arkansas. But are enough people willing to sign a petition to get one to the ballot? The attempt back in 2020-2021 didn't really get enough support at that stage, so it never had a chance.

If Ds are smart, they'd prololy do it now since a redistricting commission wouldn't affect the topline composition of Congress and State Leg very much right now, but down the road it could if the 3rd becomes competative.

[ProgressiveModerate]

A more Democratic friendly commission could also draw a Pine Bluff-Little Rock district or combine both of those with the Delta.

I think it depends upon whether race is a factor in the commission. From a racial standpoint, having a seat where blacks are at least competative in AR is possible and seems fair, but the Delta-PineBluff-Little Rock district isn't exactly natural and likely requires splitting greater Little Rock along racial lines.

The Delta is also getting a lot whiter and redder very fast, so that seat might not even be sustainable anyways.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Big descrepancies:

The Census Bureau said Washington (state) only grew by 45.000, while Washington state said they grew by 100.000 last year.

Same with Oregon: +15.000 (state, or University of Portland), -16.000 (Census Bureau)

Explanantions?

State pride?

In all seriousness, maybe the states have larger access to housing info than the census or smtg

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah, there's basically no way Manhattan lost *that* many people, especially since the number of housing units has been increasing.

I think I read somewhere that for those Manhattan nubmers to be true, there'd have to be a nearly 10% reduction in average Household size since 2020.

Why does ACS specifically seem to underestimate NYC so much? Do apartment blocks and a lot of roommate situations make things more complicated?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Another underrated factor that suggests NYC isn’t shrinking is subway ridership stats, which are absolute; several stations are getting close to their pre-2020 ridership levels, even in areas where any sort of population loss would likely be coming from.

The areas that still have the biggest subway hits are ironically the areas that were fastest growing (Williamsburg, Upper East Side). I think this is because a lot of folks in these communities have upper middle class jobs where they can still work remotely much of the time.

I’d be curious if someone could perform simillar analysis with CTA and WMATA numbers.



(Here’s current subway ridership map, I can try to make a pre-pandemic one as well for comparison)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Another underrated factor that suggests NYC isn’t shrinking is subway ridership stats, which are absolute; several stations are getting close to their pre-2020 ridership levels, even in areas where any sort of population loss would likely be coming from.

The areas that still have the biggest subway hits are ironically the areas that were fastest growing (Williamsburg, Upper East Side). I think this is because a lot of folks in these communities have upper middle class jobs where they can still work remotely much of the time.

I’d be curious if someone could perform simillar analysis with CTA and WMATA numbers.



(Here’s current subway ridership map, I can try to make a pre-pandemic one as well for comparison)

The population of New York City is definitely down if I use the subway traffic numbers, in 2019 it was 5.5 million, now it's stable at 3.75 million. That's a 30% decline there.

It’s now more like 4 million but the point isn’t the overall loss; it’s Where that loss is coming from; the biggest chunk of ridership loss is from the CBD (Midtown and Lower Manhattan), and communities that tend to have a lot of folks who work in those jobs (Williamsburg, Long Island City, Dumbo). To me that indicates fewer people commuting to work, not an actual loss of people.

Also, there are a few examples of subway lines Where ridership is approaching pre-pandemic levels, such as the end of the (7) in Queens.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Another underrated factor that suggests NYC isn’t shrinking is subway ridership stats, which are absolute; several stations are getting close to their pre-2020 ridership levels, even in areas where any sort of population loss would likely be coming from.

The areas that still have the biggest subway hits are ironically the areas that were fastest growing (Williamsburg, Upper East Side). I think this is because a lot of folks in these communities have upper middle class jobs where they can still work remotely much of the time.

I’d be curious if someone could perform simillar analysis with CTA and WMATA numbers.



(Here’s current subway ridership map, I can try to make a pre-pandemic one as well for comparison)

The population of New York City is definitely down if I use the subway traffic numbers, in 2019 it was 5.5 million, now it's stable at 3.75 million. That's a 30% decline there.

It’s now more like 4 million but the point isn’t the overall loss; it’s Where that loss is coming from; the biggest chunk of ridership loss is from the CBD (Midtown and Lower Manhattan), and communities that tend to have a lot of folks who work in those jobs (Williamsburg, Long Island City, Dumbo). To me that indicates fewer people commuting to work, not an actual loss of people.

Also, there are a few examples of subway lines Where ridership is approaching pre-pandemic levels, such as the end of the (7) in Queens.

Nevertheless, it never made sense in the modern era to have offices at expensive places where most workers don't live.

If most of your workers live in Jersey or Long Island, it would be cheaper to move it there, it would save commuting time too.

Yep def agree. A lot of the new mega-talls going up these days in Midtown and FiDi are luxury overpriced apartments and condos; i suspect midtown and FiDi will become a lot more Residnetail in my life time.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Idk if this is just me, but these estimates seem to have a pretty universal theme that D communities are shrinking or at least stalling in population relative to previous census, while R areas are doing better. I wonder if there's some sort of reason for this because these estimates aren't politically biased, but if there was truly this theme of folks fleeing "Democratic cities", surely it would've shown up in the 2020 census.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Idk if this is just me, but these estimates seem to have a pretty universal theme that D communities are shrinking or at least stalling in population relative to previous census, while R areas are doing better. I wonder if there's some sort of reason for this because these estimates aren't politically biased, but if there was truly this theme of folks fleeing "Democratic cities", surely it would've shown up in the 2020 census.

April 2020 was way too early to pick up most of it.  The expectation is that an April 2021 based census would look dramatically different.

A lot of these same cities overperformed on the 2020 census. The debate is over whether the census or the ACS estimates are wrong (they could both be wrong too).