Census Population Estimates 2020-29

[Starpaul20]

Like I did in previous years, I decided to see what a Wyoming Rule house size would look like with the new population estimates. The house membership would expand to 572 seats, an increase of 137 over its current size:

(States in red gain 1 seat, blue gains 2 seats, green gains 3 seats, yellow gains 4 seats, brown gains 5 seats, orange gains 6 or more, and gray means no change)

Relative to last year, the house would decrease by 1 seat, with Texas, Florida, and Arizona gaining a seat each, New York and Pennsylvania losing one each and California losing 2 seats.

[Sol]

Idaho with three districts will work so much better anyway.

The Coeur D'Alene district will probably still have to take in a bit of the Boise area unfortunately, at least under a distribution like current numbers.

Keep in mind that Idaho has an independent commission in the state constitution.  If the natural population #'s favor an all-Boise district, we can expect to get one.

Yeah, but my point is that the remainder of the Boise area will have to go with the Panhandle:



That still sucks, since places like Caldwell or Mountain Home are pretty remote from the north.

[NYDem]

Are county and municipal estimates available yet? If not, when will they?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Idaho with three districts will work so much better anyway.

The Coeur D'Alene district will probably still have to take in a bit of the Boise area unfortunately, at least under a distribution like current numbers.

Keep in mind that Idaho has an independent commission in the state constitution.  If the natural population #'s favor an all-Boise district, we can expect to get one.

Yeah, but my point is that the remainder of the Boise area will have to go with the Panhandle:



That still sucks, since places like Caldwell or Mountain Home are pretty remote from the north.

Tbf, with any number of districts the rural mountain states with pockets of urban areas are going to be annoying and Idaho is def the worst offender.

It'd still be an improvement from the current map which splits Treasure Valley down the middle.

It'd be really satisfying if Ada County ends up being exactly 1 congressional district. It'd probably be D-leaning by 2030 which is weird to think about.

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1605959620123447307
https://twitter.com/mcpli/status/1605959697911119877
2nd seat Delaware if trends continue

Wow!

Idaho has already gained enough for a 3rd seat?!

Also, that projection would be a net shift of 11 districts (roughly equivalent to the entire population of Virginia!) and 11 EV from clearly D leaning states to clearly R leaning states in 2031.  D’s were extremely lucky the census happened when it did.  At this point, I will be surprised if there isn’t a Dem EC/PV advantage in 2028.

Idaho and Texas likely gained a seat by 2021. Arizona and Florida by this year.

California and Minnesota lost a seat by 2021. Illinois and New York by this year.

I differ from Li's projections for 2030:

Texas +4 (up +1 from 2021)
Florida +4 (up +2 from 2021)
Arizona +1 (down -1 from 2021)
Delaware +1 (NC)
Georgia +1 (NC)
Idaho +1 (NC)
North Carolina +1 (NC)
Tennessee +1 (NC)
Utah +1 (NC)

California -5 (down -1, i.e. greater loss, from 2021)
New York -3 (up -1, i.e. less loss, from 2021)
Illinois -2 (NC)
Minnesota -1 (NC)
Pennsylvania -1 (NC)
Rhode Island -1 (NC)
Oregon -1 (-1 loss from 2021)
Wisconsin -1 (-1 loss from 2021)

By Year:

2001: +Idaho(3), + Texas(39), -California(51), -Minnesota(7)
2002: +Florida(29), -Illinois(16)
2003: +Arizona(10), -New York(25)
2004: +Texas(40), +Utah(5), -California(50), -Rhode Island(1)
2005: +Florida(30), -Oregon(5)
2006: +Georgia(15), +Texas(41), -California(49), -New York(24)
2007:
2008: +Florida(31), +North Carolina(15), +Tennessee(10), -California(48), Illinois(15), -Pennsylvania(16)
2009: +Texas(42), -New York(23)
2010: +Delaware(2), +Florida(32), -California(47), -Wisconsin(7)

[jimrtex]

Like I did in previous years, I decided to see what a Wyoming Rule house size would look like with the new population estimates. The house membership would expand to 572 seats, an increase of 137 over its current size:

(States in red gain 1 seat, blue gains 2 seats, green gains 3 seats, yellow gains 4 seats, brown gains 5 seats, orange gains 6 or more, and gray means no change)

Relative to last year, the house would decrease by 1 seat, with Texas, Florida, and Arizona gaining a seat each, New York and Pennsylvania losing one each and California losing 2 seats.

Wyoming gained slightly on Vermont, but based on current rates of growth the Wyoming Rule is good for decades. Wyoming is volatile because of the importance of energy to the state's economy. If the Front Range ever spills over into Cheyenne that could tip the balance.

[jimrtex]

2020 is Apportionment was to fractional representation (but using Huntington-Hill). 2030 is projection based on compounding projecting estimates from 2020 to 2022 (2-1/4 years) forward to 2030. Change is difference between 2020 and 2030. App is projected 2030 apportionment. Ch. is change in apportionment. Margin is population change in 1000s needed to lose/gain another seat. Growth is projected change. Rate is projected annual growth rate. New is growth rate for remainder of decade to effect apportionment.

For example, Alabama barely and somewhat surprisingly kept its 7th seat (it was above 6.5). But now its growth rate is above the national growth rate (0.25% per year).
Another way to look at Change is that if trends would continue for another 72 or so years, Alabama would gain an 8th seat (7.5 - 6.709)/0.110 * 10 = 71.9. Alabama is projected to gain 226K between 2020 and 2030, this would give it a 150K margin on retaining its 7th seat. The projected annual growth rate for Alabama is 0.44%. If it slowed to 0.07% for the remainder of the decade it would be in danger of losing its 7th seat.


State               2020    2030  Change App Ch.  Margin  Growth    Rate     New
Alabama            6.598   6.709   0.110   7   =    -150     226   0.44%   0.07%
Alaska             1.083   1.061  -0.022   1   =     382       1   0.01%   5.57%
Arizona            9.378  10.361   0.983  10  +1     157     970   1.28%   1.53%
Arkansas           3.975   4.065   0.090   4   =     364     154   0.50%   1.92%
California        51.779  47.565  -4.214  47  -5     165   -2212  -0.57%  -0.52%
Colorado           7.577   7.756   0.178   8   =    -184     300   0.51%   0.11%
Connecticut        4.748   4.737  -0.011   5   =    -177      91   0.25%  -0.38%
Delaware           1.389   1.516   0.126   2  +1     -10     133   1.27%   1.15%
Florida           28.209  31.683   3.474  32  +4     -73    3323   1.45%   1.41%
Georgia           14.036  14.833   0.797  15  +1    -229     922   0.83%   0.57%
Hawaii             1.970   1.840  -0.130   2   =    -276     -66  -0.46%  -3.27%
Idaho              2.460   3.007   0.547   3  +1     408     488   2.38%   4.53%
Illinois          16.786  15.069  -1.717  15  -2     409    -993  -0.80%  -0.37%
Indiana            8.900   8.933   0.033   9   =    -321     214   0.31%  -0.30%
Iowa               4.208   4.153  -0.054   4   =     294      45   0.14%   1.27%
Kansas             3.880   3.773  -0.107   4   =    -208      -3  -0.01%  -0.96%
Kentucky           5.922   5.800  -0.122   6   =    -224      29   0.06%  -0.59%
Louisiana          6.120   5.585  -0.535   6   =     -54    -293  -0.65%  -0.81%
Maine              1.853   1.936   0.083   2   =    -354     105   0.75%  -2.78%
Maryland           8.105   7.816  -0.288   8   =    -232     -56  -0.09%  -0.59%
Massachusetts      9.219   8.704  -0.516   9   =    -141    -211  -0.30%  -0.57%
Michigan          13.206  12.608  -0.598  13   =     -57    -191  -0.19%  -0.26%
Minnesota          7.490   7.349  -0.140   7  -1     153      48   0.08%   0.42%
Mississippi        3.910   3.689  -0.221   4   =    -142     -93  -0.32%  -0.97%
Missouri           8.076   7.990  -0.086   8   =    -368     103   0.17%  -0.61%
Montana            1.505   1.690   0.185   2   =    -154     183   1.57%  -0.11%
Nebraska           2.617   2.585  -0.032   3   =     -62      29   0.15%  -0.27%
Nevada             4.096   4.416   0.320   4   =      87     339   1.04%   1.37%
New Hampshire      1.872   1.924   0.052   2   =    -345      80   0.57%  -2.87%
New Jersey        12.174  11.693  -0.481  12   =    -126    -121  -0.13%  -0.31%
New Mexico         2.818   2.721  -0.097   3   =    -171     -19  -0.09%  -1.18%
New York          26.459  22.908  -3.550  23  -3    -270   -2227  -1.16%  -1.35%
North Carolina    13.680  14.845   1.165  15  +1    -238    1204   1.10%   0.83%
North Dakota       1.136   1.112  -0.024   1   =     336       1   0.01%   4.75%
Ohio              15.460  14.800  -0.660  15   =    -203    -192  -0.16%  -0.39%
Oklahoma           5.209   5.420   0.211   5   =      88     276   0.68%   0.94%
Oregon             5.571   5.439  -0.133   5  -1      73      13   0.03%   0.25%
Pennsylvania      17.035  16.403  -0.632  16  -1     151    -136  -0.10%   0.05%
Rhode Island       1.522   1.466  -0.056   1  -1      35     -16  -0.15%   0.26%
South Carolina     6.721   7.521   0.800   7   =      17     771   1.41%   1.45%
South Dakota       1.264   1.362   0.098   1   =     122     108   1.15%   2.67%
Tennessee          9.064   9.643   0.579  10  +1     -91     647   0.90%   0.74%
Texas             38.170  42.416   4.246  42  +4     260    4140   1.34%   1.44%
Utah               4.313   4.850   0.536   5  +1    -266     514   1.47%   0.52%
Vermont            0.979   0.979   0.000   1   =     455      18   0.28%   7.29%
Virginia          11.314  11.308  -0.006  11   =     203     235   0.27%   0.56%
Washington        10.103  10.295   0.192  10   =     209     364   0.46%   0.80%
West Virginia      2.402   2.239  -0.163   2   =     221     -81  -0.46%   1.11%
Wisconsin          7.734   7.520  -0.214   7  -1      18      -5  -0.01%   0.03%
Wyoming            0.906   0.911   0.005   1   =     519      20   0.35%   8.78%

[jimrtex]

2020 is Apportionment was to fractional representation (but using Huntington-Hill). 2030 is projection based on compounding projecting estimates from 2020 to 2022 (2-1/4 years) forward to 2030. Change is difference between 2020 and 2030. App is projected 2030 apportionment. Ch. is change in apportionment. Margin is population change in 1000s needed to lose/gain another seat. Growth is projected change. Rate is projected annual growth rate. New is growth rate for remainder of decade to effect apportionment.

For example, Alabama barely and somewhat surprisingly kept its 7th seat (it was above 6.5). But now its growth rate is above the national growth rate (0.25% per year).
Another way to look at Change is that if trends would continue for another 72 or so years, Alabama would gain an 8th seat (7.5 - 6.709)/0.110 * 10 = 71.9. Alabama is projected to gain 226K between 2020 and 2030, this would give it a 150K margin on retaining its 7th seat. The projected annual growth rate for Alabama is 0.44%. If it slowed to 0.07% for the remainder of the decade it would be in danger of losing its 7th seat.


State               2020    2030  Change App Ch.  Margin  Growth    Rate     New
Alabama            6.598   6.709   0.110   7   =    -150     226   0.44%   0.07%
Alaska             1.083   1.061  -0.022   1   =     382       1   0.01%   5.57%
Arizona            9.378  10.361   0.983  10  +1     157     970   1.28%   1.53%
Arkansas           3.975   4.065   0.090   4   =     364     154   0.50%   1.92%
California        51.779  47.565  -4.214  47  -5     165   -2212  -0.57%  -0.52%
Colorado           7.577   7.756   0.178   8   =    -184     300   0.51%   0.11%
Connecticut        4.748   4.737  -0.011   5   =    -177      91   0.25%  -0.38%
Delaware           1.389   1.516   0.126   2  +1     -10     133   1.27%   1.15%
Florida           28.209  31.683   3.474  32  +4     -73    3323   1.45%   1.41%
Georgia           14.036  14.833   0.797  15  +1    -229     922   0.83%   0.57%
Hawaii             1.970   1.840  -0.130   2   =    -276     -66  -0.46%  -3.27%
Idaho              2.460   3.007   0.547   3  +1     408     488   2.38%   4.53%
Illinois          16.786  15.069  -1.717  15  -2     409    -993  -0.80%  -0.37%
Indiana            8.900   8.933   0.033   9   =    -321     214   0.31%  -0.30%
Iowa               4.208   4.153  -0.054   4   =     294      45   0.14%   1.27%
Kansas             3.880   3.773  -0.107   4   =    -208      -3  -0.01%  -0.96%
Kentucky           5.922   5.800  -0.122   6   =    -224      29   0.06%  -0.59%
Louisiana          6.120   5.585  -0.535   6   =     -54    -293  -0.65%  -0.81%
Maine              1.853   1.936   0.083   2   =    -354     105   0.75%  -2.78%
Maryland           8.105   7.816  -0.288   8   =    -232     -56  -0.09%  -0.59%
Massachusetts      9.219   8.704  -0.516   9   =    -141    -211  -0.30%  -0.57%
Michigan          13.206  12.608  -0.598  13   =     -57    -191  -0.19%  -0.26%
Minnesota          7.490   7.349  -0.140   7  -1     153      48   0.08%   0.42%
Mississippi        3.910   3.689  -0.221   4   =    -142     -93  -0.32%  -0.97%
Missouri           8.076   7.990  -0.086   8   =    -368     103   0.17%  -0.61%
Montana            1.505   1.690   0.185   2   =    -154     183   1.57%  -0.11%
Nebraska           2.617   2.585  -0.032   3   =     -62      29   0.15%  -0.27%
Nevada             4.096   4.416   0.320   4   =      87     339   1.04%   1.37%
New Hampshire      1.872   1.924   0.052   2   =    -345      80   0.57%  -2.87%
New Jersey        12.174  11.693  -0.481  12   =    -126    -121  -0.13%  -0.31%
New Mexico         2.818   2.721  -0.097   3   =    -171     -19  -0.09%  -1.18%
New York          26.459  22.908  -3.550  23  -3    -270   -2227  -1.16%  -1.35%
North Carolina    13.680  14.845   1.165  15  +1    -238    1204   1.10%   0.83%
North Dakota       1.136   1.112  -0.024   1   =     336       1   0.01%   4.75%
Ohio              15.460  14.800  -0.660  15   =    -203    -192  -0.16%  -0.39%
Oklahoma           5.209   5.420   0.211   5   =      88     276   0.68%   0.94%
Oregon             5.571   5.439  -0.133   5  -1      73      13   0.03%   0.25%
Pennsylvania      17.035  16.403  -0.632  16  -1     151    -136  -0.10%   0.05%
Rhode Island       1.522   1.466  -0.056   1  -1      35     -16  -0.15%   0.26%
South Carolina     6.721   7.521   0.800   7   =      17     771   1.41%   1.45%
South Dakota       1.264   1.362   0.098   1   =     122     108   1.15%   2.67%
Tennessee          9.064   9.643   0.579  10  +1     -91     647   0.90%   0.74%
Texas             38.170  42.416   4.246  42  +4     260    4140   1.34%   1.44%
Utah               4.313   4.850   0.536   5  +1    -266     514   1.47%   0.52%
Vermont            0.979   0.979   0.000   1   =     455      18   0.28%   7.29%
Virginia          11.314  11.308  -0.006  11   =     203     235   0.27%   0.56%
Washington        10.103  10.295   0.192  10   =     209     364   0.46%   0.80%
West Virginia      2.402   2.239  -0.163   2   =     221     -81  -0.46%   1.11%
Wisconsin          7.734   7.520  -0.214   7  -1      18      -5  -0.01%   0.03%
Wyoming            0.906   0.911   0.005   1   =     519      20   0.35%   8.78%

Alabama is slowly pulling away from losing its seventh seat. It has a fairly substantial cushion for its 7th. Note it is possible/likely that the national growth rate will increase.

Alaska is stagnant. It can't lose its single seat, but it may never gain a second.

Arizona is gaining about 1 seat (0.983) per decade. It was close to the 10th seat at the Census, and is estimated to have gained the 10th by July 2022. It will spend the rest of the decade solidifying the 10th and then working towards the 11th. A slight uptick in growth might secure the 11th.

Arkansas is a very solid 4.

California has had a 500K loss since the Census and is projected to lose 2.2M by 2030. If international immigration recovers, California will retain one or more seats. Before 2020 international immigration was hiding the domestic out migration.

Colorado gained its 8th seat in 2020 and is now solidifying that gain.

Connecticut is solid at 5, unless the national growth rate recovers.

Delaware may barely gain its 2nd seat by 2030. This would be the first and only time since 1810 that Delaware had more than one representative. From 1812-1820, Delaware elected both representatives at large, so this would be the first-ever congressional districting in Delaware. Note that Delaware's margin is quite small. It could be like Montana in the past where it was close to a second, but not quite for several decades.

Florida growth rate is about 3.5 representatives per decade. If Florida gains a fourth, it will be the 435th overall.

Georgia is gaining most of a seat per decade. Georgia is projected to surpass Ohio by 2030, but may be nicked by North Carolina. The long-time grouping of Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Ohio in 5th-7th, is about to be joined by North Carolina and Georgia.

Hawaii is slowly drifting towards losing a second district, but would not be at risk until around 2060.

Idaho has the largest congressional districts with over 900,000 persons, and barely missed out on a third. It would have gained a third by 2021. As the fastest growing state since 2020 it will have a solid third in 2030, with a 4th a bare possibility by 2040.

Illinois could lose two seats this decade as well as the next.

Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, and Kentucky could be steady at 9, 4, 4, and 6 seats for decades.

Louisiana is projected that its 6th seat is 431st nationally. Continued dropping would cost it a seat by 2040.

[Aurelius]

In a few decades Idaho will have 4 or 5 seats and North Idaho will have enough population for a seat all to itself, without having to drop down into Boise. That's gonna give us some seriously fun primaries.

[Skill and Chance]

In a few decades Idaho will have 4 or 5 seats and North Idaho will have enough population for a seat all to itself, without having to drop down into Boise. That's gonna give us some seriously fun primaries.

A 4-5 seat Idaho is probably at most a Lean R state given who's moving in.  That's interesting to think about. 

[ProgressiveModerate]

In a few decades Idaho will have 4 or 5 seats and North Idaho will have enough population for a seat all to itself, without having to drop down into Boise. That's gonna give us some seriously fun primaries.

A 4-5 seat Idaho is probably at most a Lean R state given who's moving in.  That's interesting to think about. 

Not necessarily, it depends upon where that growth is coming from. If Boise and the Treasure Valley were to hypothetically go full Denver on us these next few decades, then Idaho would become a D-leaning state (assuming partisan coalitions stay somewhat familiar). If we see disproportionate growth in Mormon areas or the Panhandle where transplants lean hard right, then ID will stay as deep R and could even get redder.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why has Alabama been holding up decently these past few years, especially compared to MS, LA, and AR?

AL doesn't seem particularly desirable and doesn't have really have spawning industry in many of it's major cities outside of maybe Huntsville, which is a very small portion of the state.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why has Alabama been holding up decently these past few years, especially compared to MS, LA, and AR?

AL doesn't seem particularly desirable and doesn't have really have spawning industry in many of it's major cities outside of maybe Huntsville, which is a very small portion of the state.

Is Baldwin County showing fast growth?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why has Alabama been holding up decently these past few years, especially compared to MS, LA, and AR?

AL doesn't seem particularly desirable and doesn't have really have spawning industry in many of it's major cities outside of maybe Huntsville, which is a very small portion of the state.

Is Baldwin County showing fast growth?

Yes, but Mobile is shrinking pretty badly iirc

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why has Alabama been holding up decently these past few years, especially compared to MS, LA, and AR?

AL doesn't seem particularly desirable and doesn't have really have spawning industry in many of it's major cities outside of maybe Huntsville, which is a very small portion of the state.

Is Baldwin County showing fast growth?

Yes, but Mobile is shrinking pretty badly iirc

I guess population trends in places like Birmingham must be rather healthy then. That feels like a necessary ingredient here.

[justfollowingtheelections]

In a few decades Idaho will have 4 or 5 seats and North Idaho will have enough population for a seat all to itself, without having to drop down into Boise. That's gonna give us some seriously fun primaries.

A 4-5 seat Idaho is probably at most a Lean R state given who's moving in.  That's interesting to think about. 

Anecdotal, but I know several people from Portland who lean right who moved to Idaho during the pandemic.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why has Alabama been holding up decently these past few years, especially compared to MS, LA, and AR?

AL doesn't seem particularly desirable and doesn't have really have spawning industry in many of it's major cities outside of maybe Huntsville, which is a very small portion of the state.

Arkansas (which also has a very high population growth rate relative to the nation) and Alabama both are emerging into the new South the same way Tennessee did

Huntsville and Fayetteville are both engines of growth in the new states but Birmingham and Little Rock are also holding up well.


The only Southern states* left with domestic migration problems are Mississippi and Louisiana.

*Excluding the Mid-Atlantic region of Virginia, Maryland, and DC but they barely count

Glad for Arkansas cause a hypothetical 3 seat AR down the road would suck.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This would obv be a massive upset, but is OR at risk of losing the 6th seat it gained from 2020?

Seems like Portland particularly has had slowed growth for a variety of reasons

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why has Alabama been holding up decently these past few years, especially compared to MS, LA, and AR?

AL doesn't seem particularly desirable and doesn't have really have spawning industry in many of it's major cities outside of maybe Huntsville, which is a very small portion of the state.

Arkansas (which also has a very high population growth rate relative to the nation) and Alabama both are emerging into the new South the same way Tennessee did

Huntsville and Fayetteville are both engines of growth in the new states but Birmingham and Little Rock are also holding up well.


The only Southern states* left with domestic migration problems are Mississippi and Louisiana.

*Excluding the Mid-Atlantic region of Virginia, Maryland, and DC but they barely count

Glad for Arkansas cause a hypothetical 3 seat AR down the road would suck.

One can expect that if AR keeps 4 seats, the NW AR seat will keep shrinking more and more.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why has Alabama been holding up decently these past few years, especially compared to MS, LA, and AR?

AL doesn't seem particularly desirable and doesn't have really have spawning industry in many of it's major cities outside of maybe Huntsville, which is a very small portion of the state.

Arkansas (which also has a very high population growth rate relative to the nation) and Alabama both are emerging into the new South the same way Tennessee did

Huntsville and Fayetteville are both engines of growth in the new states but Birmingham and Little Rock are also holding up well.


The only Southern states* left with domestic migration problems are Mississippi and Louisiana.

*Excluding the Mid-Atlantic region of Virginia, Maryland, and DC but they barely count

Glad for Arkansas cause a hypothetical 3 seat AR down the road would suck.

One can expect that if AR keeps 4 seats, the NW AR seat will keep shrinking more and more.

Rs might try to crack it eventually but which would suck. Rn it’s Trump + 23.2 which should be more than fine for this decade, but if the district keeps shredding the outermost rurals, it could narrow pretty rapidly.

Is a commission possible in AR? Ik there’s ballot initiative but it’s weaker than some other states.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why has Alabama been holding up decently these past few years, especially compared to MS, LA, and AR?

AL doesn't seem particularly desirable and doesn't have really have spawning industry in many of it's major cities outside of maybe Huntsville, which is a very small portion of the state.

Arkansas (which also has a very high population growth rate relative to the nation) and Alabama both are emerging into the new South the same way Tennessee did

Huntsville and Fayetteville are both engines of growth in the new states but Birmingham and Little Rock are also holding up well.


The only Southern states* left with domestic migration problems are Mississippi and Louisiana.

*Excluding the Mid-Atlantic region of Virginia, Maryland, and DC but they barely count

Glad for Arkansas cause a hypothetical 3 seat AR down the road would suck.

One can expect that if AR keeps 4 seats, the NW AR seat will keep shrinking more and more.

Rs might try to crack it eventually but which would suck. Rn it’s Trump + 23.2 which should be more than fine for this decade, but if the district keeps shredding the outermost rurals, it could narrow pretty rapidly.

Is a commission possible in AR? Ik there’s ballot initiative but it’s weaker than some other states.

A commission should be possible in Arkansas. But are enough people willing to sign a petition to get one to the ballot? The attempt back in 2020-2021 didn't really get enough support at that stage, so it never had a chance.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why has Alabama been holding up decently these past few years, especially compared to MS, LA, and AR?

AL doesn't seem particularly desirable and doesn't have really have spawning industry in many of it's major cities outside of maybe Huntsville, which is a very small portion of the state.

Arkansas (which also has a very high population growth rate relative to the nation) and Alabama both are emerging into the new South the same way Tennessee did

Huntsville and Fayetteville are both engines of growth in the new states but Birmingham and Little Rock are also holding up well.


The only Southern states* left with domestic migration problems are Mississippi and Louisiana.

*Excluding the Mid-Atlantic region of Virginia, Maryland, and DC but they barely count

Glad for Arkansas cause a hypothetical 3 seat AR down the road would suck.

One can expect that if AR keeps 4 seats, the NW AR seat will keep shrinking more and more.

Rs might try to crack it eventually but which would suck. Rn it’s Trump + 23.2 which should be more than fine for this decade, but if the district keeps shredding the outermost rurals, it could narrow pretty rapidly.

Is a commission possible in AR? Ik there’s ballot initiative but it’s weaker than some other states.

A commission should be possible in Arkansas. But are enough people willing to sign a petition to get one to the ballot? The attempt back in 2020-2021 didn't really get enough support at that stage, so it never had a chance.

If Ds are smart, they'd prololy do it now since a redistricting commission wouldn't affect the topline composition of Congress and State Leg very much right now, but down the road it could if the 3rd becomes competative.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why has Alabama been holding up decently these past few years, especially compared to MS, LA, and AR?

AL doesn't seem particularly desirable and doesn't have really have spawning industry in many of it's major cities outside of maybe Huntsville, which is a very small portion of the state.

Arkansas (which also has a very high population growth rate relative to the nation) and Alabama both are emerging into the new South the same way Tennessee did

Huntsville and Fayetteville are both engines of growth in the new states but Birmingham and Little Rock are also holding up well.


The only Southern states* left with domestic migration problems are Mississippi and Louisiana.

*Excluding the Mid-Atlantic region of Virginia, Maryland, and DC but they barely count

Glad for Arkansas cause a hypothetical 3 seat AR down the road would suck.

One can expect that if AR keeps 4 seats, the NW AR seat will keep shrinking more and more.

Rs might try to crack it eventually but which would suck. Rn it’s Trump + 23.2 which should be more than fine for this decade, but if the district keeps shredding the outermost rurals, it could narrow pretty rapidly.

Is a commission possible in AR? Ik there’s ballot initiative but it’s weaker than some other states.

A commission should be possible in Arkansas. But are enough people willing to sign a petition to get one to the ballot? The attempt back in 2020-2021 didn't really get enough support at that stage, so it never had a chance.

If Ds are smart, they'd prololy do it now since a redistricting commission wouldn't affect the topline composition of Congress and State Leg very much right now, but down the road it could if the 3rd becomes competative.

I don't disagree.

[Sol]

A more Democratic friendly commission could also draw a Pine Bluff-Little Rock district or combine both of those with the Delta.

[ProgressiveModerate]

A more Democratic friendly commission could also draw a Pine Bluff-Little Rock district or combine both of those with the Delta.

I think it depends upon whether race is a factor in the commission. From a racial standpoint, having a seat where blacks are at least competative in AR is possible and seems fair, but the Delta-PineBluff-Little Rock district isn't exactly natural and likely requires splitting greater Little Rock along racial lines.

The Delta is also getting a lot whiter and redder very fast, so that seat might not even be sustainable anyways.