Census Population Estimates 2020-29

[walleye26]

Wisconsin’s Department of Administration released their population estimates from 2020-June 2022. It states that Wisconsin added 53,700 people from The 2020 census to now. That seems a bit high, but if we are gaining people from Chicago (which it looks like Kenosha, Walworth, and Waukesha are adding people) that might be the case. Of the 53,700 new Wisconsinites, top gainers are:

Dane +20,661
Brown +4,420
Waukesha +3,791
St Croix +2,733
Calumet +2,555
Eau Claire +2,309
Outagamie +2,233
Washington + 1,468
LaCrosse +1,342
Rock +1,272


Biggest Losers in Population were the following
Milwaukee -1,574
Grant -767
Dodge -574
(All other population losses were under 100 people, with Ashland being the next at -90).

The state DOA says 12 counties lost population, but most of them were marginal (less than 100 people)
Of the 60 counties that gained population, 21 had a gain of less than 100 people.

Full results here: https://doa.wi.gov/DIR/Prelim_Est_Co_2022.pdf

[walleye26]

Yeah, I was going to ask about that too. The Wisconsin Department of Administration said that we have gained 53,000 residents, but the census shows a lot different numbers.

[walleye26]

Big descrepancies:

The Census Bureau said Washington (state) only grew by 45.000, while Washington state said they grew by 100.000 last year.

Same with Oregon: +15.000 (state, or University of Portland), -16.000 (Census Bureau)

Explanantions?

Yeah, I was going to ask about that too. The Wisconsin Department of Administration said that we have gained 53,000 residents, but the census shows a lot different numbers.

Both the 2022 census bureau numbers as well as the figures provided by the states are only estimates. They can very easily miss a lot of movement either through not including certain samples (its very difficult to track where international migrants move to), over relying on certain figures for estimates (such as using Social Security or Medicare registration as one of the key data points, which can easily make the estimates biased towards the movement of the elderly), or simple MOE. The real important tidbit to remember in all of this is to not take these figures as a sort of gospel.

Yeah, that makes sense. The 2020 numbers in WI showed that the census estimates very much underestimated Dane’s growth, and they projected rural WI to lose more than it did. However, I would guess the 2020 northern WI numbers were a lot to do with elderly folks moving out of cities as a result of Covid. Personally, my methods are 1) tracking development, such as number of housing units built, and 2) tracking number of votes in elections. Obviously those are imperfect, but when I can see a county consistently getting fewer votes cycle after cycle, I know it’s population has to be dropping. But turnout trends can mess that up.