Census Population Estimates 2020-29

[Sol]

The Delta is also getting a lot whiter and redder very fast, so that seat might not even be sustainable anyways.

IMO there's kind of a oft-repeated idea that rural Black Belt areas are getting whiter--that may be true in some places, but the Arkansas Delta, at least as defined by wikipedia, got more Black and much less whiter between 2010 and 2020.

[🇺🇦 Purple 🦄 Unicorn 🇮🇱]

Big descrepancies:

The Census Bureau said Washington (state) only grew by 45.000, while Washington state said they grew by 100.000 last year.

Same with Oregon: +15.000 (state, or University of Portland), -16.000 (Census Bureau)

Explanantions?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Big descrepancies:

The Census Bureau said Washington (state) only grew by 45.000, while Washington state said they grew by 100.000 last year.

Same with Oregon: +15.000 (state, or University of Portland), -16.000 (Census Bureau)

Explanantions?

State pride?

In all seriousness, maybe the states have larger access to housing info than the census or smtg

[walleye26]

Yeah, I was going to ask about that too. The Wisconsin Department of Administration said that we have gained 53,000 residents, but the census shows a lot different numbers.

[Zaybay]

Big descrepancies:

The Census Bureau said Washington (state) only grew by 45.000, while Washington state said they grew by 100.000 last year.

Same with Oregon: +15.000 (state, or University of Portland), -16.000 (Census Bureau)

Explanantions?

Yeah, I was going to ask about that too. The Wisconsin Department of Administration said that we have gained 53,000 residents, but the census shows a lot different numbers.

Both the 2022 census bureau numbers as well as the figures provided by the states are only estimates. They can very easily miss a lot of movement either through not including certain samples (its very difficult to track where international migrants move to), over relying on certain figures for estimates (such as using Social Security or Medicare registration as one of the key data points, which can easily make the estimates biased towards the movement of the elderly), or simple MOE. The real important tidbit to remember in all of this is to not take these figures as a sort of gospel.

[walleye26]

Big descrepancies:

The Census Bureau said Washington (state) only grew by 45.000, while Washington state said they grew by 100.000 last year.

Same with Oregon: +15.000 (state, or University of Portland), -16.000 (Census Bureau)

Explanantions?

Yeah, I was going to ask about that too. The Wisconsin Department of Administration said that we have gained 53,000 residents, but the census shows a lot different numbers.

Both the 2022 census bureau numbers as well as the figures provided by the states are only estimates. They can very easily miss a lot of movement either through not including certain samples (its very difficult to track where international migrants move to), over relying on certain figures for estimates (such as using Social Security or Medicare registration as one of the key data points, which can easily make the estimates biased towards the movement of the elderly), or simple MOE. The real important tidbit to remember in all of this is to not take these figures as a sort of gospel.

Yeah, that makes sense. The 2020 numbers in WI showed that the census estimates very much underestimated Dane’s growth, and they projected rural WI to lose more than it did. However, I would guess the 2020 northern WI numbers were a lot to do with elderly folks moving out of cities as a result of Covid. Personally, my methods are 1) tracking development, such as number of housing units built, and 2) tracking number of votes in elections. Obviously those are imperfect, but when I can see a county consistently getting fewer votes cycle after cycle, I know it’s population has to be dropping. But turnout trends can mess that up.

[Bismarck]

Does anyone know a way to see demographic breakdowns by age or race? I’d be curious to see income and race by age, and race by income for different geographies. There used to be the demographic statistical atlas website but they seem to have stopped updating that.

[Nyvin]

https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/2023/comm/percent-change-in-county-population.html

Some western states, the southern Atlantic coast area, and the Texas triangle are the three areas still having good growth,  everything else is either close to stagnant or declining.

Surprising to see all NH counties have grown in population last year.

[ottermax]

https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/2023/comm/percent-change-in-county-population.html

Some western states, the southern Atlantic coast area, and the Texas triangle are the three areas still having good growth,  everything else is either close to stagnant or declining.

Surprising to see all NH counties have grown in population last year.

What is going on in the Ozarks???

[Хahar 🤔]

NEW YORK CITY POPULATION

Between July 01, 2021 and July 01, 2022

+32,058 Natural Increase
+54,307 Net International Migration
-216,031 Net Domestic Migration
-5,946 Residual

From Census Day 2020 to July 01, 2022

+48,464 Natural Increase
+75,285 Net International Migration
-577,886 Net Domestic Migration
-14,160 Residual

Population 8,335,897
(down 1.46% since July 01, 2020)
(down 5.32% since Census 2020)

Garbage in, garbage out. It's a shame that ACS numbers are totally unusable now.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Yeah, there's basically no way Manhattan lost *that* many people, especially since the number of housing units has been increasing.

I think I read somewhere that for those Manhattan nubmers to be true, there'd have to be a nearly 10% reduction in average Household size since 2020.

Why does ACS specifically seem to underestimate NYC so much? Do apartment blocks and a lot of roommate situations make things more complicated?

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/2023/comm/percent-change-in-county-population.html

Some western states, the southern Atlantic coast area, and the Texas triangle are the three areas still having good growth,  everything else is either close to stagnant or declining.

Surprising to see all NH counties have grown in population last year.

What is going on in the Ozarks???

Are you looking at the two counties in NW AR? Benton is a business hub (Walmart HQ) that has consciously invested in recreational infrastructure like extensive mountain biking trails that run through some urban/semi-urban areas for easy access. Madison had ~16K in the 2020 census so that might be a statistical blip, but also its position situates it well for outdoors recreation like biking and access to the Buffalo National Waterway. Combine that with cheap COL + surge in remote work possibilities and my only surprise is that Washington County (Fayetteville + University of Arkansas) isn't dark green.

[Хahar 🤔]

Garbage in, garbage out. It's a shame that ACS numbers are totally unusable now.

What basis do you have for this assertion?
And tell me what your preferred alternative is?

My basis is that ACS numbers were dramatically off in 2020. Based on how much you post about this sort of thing there shouldn't be anything you don't know in this Twitter thread, but I found that it provided a good summary of the problem:

https://twitter.com/zoningwonk/status/1641503129815625729

I do not have a preferred alternative because there does not appear at present to be a good way of estimating population. This does not mean that we should accept bad estimates.

ProgressiveModerate Atlas Icon ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Posts: 11,184

New estimate released: Detroit Population Down? « Reply #4 on: January 28, 1954 at 08:02:30 » Yeah, there's basically no way Detroit lost *that* many people, especially since the number of housing units has been increasing. I think I read somewhere that for those Detroit nubmers to be true, there'd have to be a nearly 10% reduction in average Household size since 1950. Why do demographers specifically seem to underestimate Detroit so much? Do apartment blocks and a lot of roommate situations make things more complicated? Recommend  |  2 other people recommend this.

Yes, for this to be true it requires New York to be experiencing Detroit-level population decline. In addition to being very difficult to believe on its face, this simply does not cohere with empirically observed large rent increases in New York. By contrast, when New York's population did drop dramatically in 2020, rents declined dramatically also.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Another underrated factor that suggests NYC isn’t shrinking is subway ridership stats, which are absolute; several stations are getting close to their pre-2020 ridership levels, even in areas where any sort of population loss would likely be coming from.

The areas that still have the biggest subway hits are ironically the areas that were fastest growing (Williamsburg, Upper East Side). I think this is because a lot of folks in these communities have upper middle class jobs where they can still work remotely much of the time.

I’d be curious if someone could perform simillar analysis with CTA and WMATA numbers.



(Here’s current subway ridership map, I can try to make a pre-pandemic one as well for comparison)

[ottermax]

https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/2023/comm/percent-change-in-county-population.html

Some western states, the southern Atlantic coast area, and the Texas triangle are the three areas still having good growth,  everything else is either close to stagnant or declining.

Surprising to see all NH counties have grown in population last year.

What is going on in the Ozarks???

Are you looking at the two counties in NW AR? Benton is a business hub (Walmart HQ) that has consciously invested in recreational infrastructure like extensive mountain biking trails that run through some urban/semi-urban areas for easy access. Madison had ~16K in the 2020 census so that might be a statistical blip, but also its position situates it well for outdoors recreation like biking and access to the Buffalo National Waterway. Combine that with cheap COL + surge in remote work possibilities and my only surprise is that Washington County (Fayetteville + University of Arkansas) isn't dark green.

No I'm surprised there is such consistent positive growth across Southern Missouri and Northern Arkansas given that most rural regions continue to see declines.

[Sol]

https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/2023/comm/percent-change-in-county-population.html

Some western states, the southern Atlantic coast area, and the Texas triangle are the three areas still having good growth,  everything else is either close to stagnant or declining.

Surprising to see all NH counties have grown in population last year.

What is going on in the Ozarks???

Are you looking at the two counties in NW AR? Benton is a business hub (Walmart HQ) that has consciously invested in recreational infrastructure like extensive mountain biking trails that run through some urban/semi-urban areas for easy access. Madison had ~16K in the 2020 census so that might be a statistical blip, but also its position situates it well for outdoors recreation like biking and access to the Buffalo National Waterway. Combine that with cheap COL + surge in remote work possibilities and my only surprise is that Washington County (Fayetteville + University of Arkansas) isn't dark green.

No I'm surprised there is such consistent positive growth across Southern Missouri and Northern Arkansas given that most rural regions continue to see declines.

I assume it's not so different from the robust growth in Middle TN and Piedmont NC--i.e. rural areas getting some of the benefits of nearby, relatively fast growing cities. Plus the Ozarks and Ouachitas are attractive for tourism related reasons, and there is a surprisingly robust meatpacking sector in parts of SW MO and NW AR.

In any case, as Xahar said these estimates are likely bunkum, so not much use in overanalyzing.

[Skill and Chance]

Why has Alabama been holding up decently these past few years, especially compared to MS, LA, and AR?

AL doesn't seem particularly desirable and doesn't have really have spawning industry in many of it's major cities outside of maybe Huntsville, which is a very small portion of the state.

Arkansas (which also has a very high population growth rate relative to the nation) and Alabama both are emerging into the new South the same way Tennessee did

Huntsville and Fayetteville are both engines of growth in the new states but Birmingham and Little Rock are also holding up well.


The only Southern states* left with domestic migration problems are Mississippi and Louisiana.

*Excluding the Mid-Atlantic region of Virginia, Maryland, and DC but they barely count

Glad for Arkansas cause a hypothetical 3 seat AR down the road would suck.

One can expect that if AR keeps 4 seats, the NW AR seat will keep shrinking more and more.

Rs might try to crack it eventually but which would suck. Rn it’s Trump + 23.2 which should be more than fine for this decade, but if the district keeps shredding the outermost rurals, it could narrow pretty rapidly.

Is a commission possible in AR? Ik there’s ballot initiative but it’s weaker than some other states.

A commission should be possible in Arkansas. But are enough people willing to sign a petition to get one to the ballot? The attempt back in 2020-2021 didn't really get enough support at that stage, so it never had a chance.

If Ds are smart, they'd prololy do it now since a redistricting commission wouldn't affect the topline composition of Congress and State Leg very much right now, but down the road it could if the 3rd becomes competative.

I don't disagree.

The legislature just changed the signature gathering requirements to dramatically increase the number of counties signatures must be collected in.  If the new law holds up in court, putting an amendment on the ballot will require a number of signatures equal to at least 5% of 2022 gubernatorial election voters in near unanimous Trump counties.

[Zaybay]

Garbage in, garbage out. It's a shame that ACS numbers are totally unusable now.

What basis do you have for this assertion?
And tell me what your preferred alternative is?

My basis is that ACS numbers were dramatically off in 2020. Based on how much you post about this sort of thing there shouldn't be anything you don't know in this Twitter thread, but I found that it provided a good summary of the problem:

-SNIP-
I do not have a preferred alternative because there does not appear at present to be a good way of estimating population. This does not mean that we should accept bad estimates.

Initially, I read the thread of Tweets and was concerned for a second. The arguments, taking them at face value, seem like good ones (and moreover, I am unfamiliar with this argument, it isn't one Zaybay brings up, as Zaybay's argument largely predicates on the idea that the Domestic Migration numbers are wrong, which the original author of this Twitter thread doesn't even attempt to make, showing how the domestic migration numbers are very good).

Lmao

"This twitter thread that was used as an example decides to bring up and focus on issue A over issue B, therefore issue B doesn't exist".

You do realize how ridiculous that sounds, right?

Edit: This post was up for 2 seconds how did you already recommend it lol

[Zaybay]

Garbage in, garbage out. It's a shame that ACS numbers are totally unusable now.

What basis do you have for this assertion?
And tell me what your preferred alternative is?

My basis is that ACS numbers were dramatically off in 2020. Based on how much you post about this sort of thing there shouldn't be anything you don't know in this Twitter thread, but I found that it provided a good summary of the problem:

-SNIP-
I do not have a preferred alternative because there does not appear at present to be a good way of estimating population. This does not mean that we should accept bad estimates.

Initially, I read the thread of Tweets and was concerned for a second. The arguments, taking them at face value, seem like good ones (and moreover, I am unfamiliar with this argument, it isn't one Zaybay brings up, as Zaybay's argument largely predicates on the idea that the Domestic Migration numbers are wrong, which the original author of this Twitter thread doesn't even attempt to make, showing how the domestic migration numbers are very good).

Lmao

"This twitter thread that was used as an example decides to bring up and focus on issue A over issue B, therefore issue B doesn't exist".

You do realize how ridiculous that sounds, right?

Edit: This post was up for 2 seconds how did you already recommend it lol

OK, I'll admit there may be some problems. But they aren't big ones clearly.

Anyway, his explanation based on international immigration miscalculations makes much more sense than anything related to domestic migration in ascertaining why the 2010-20 estimates were so off.


Do you think more Americans are moving into than out of New York state?

If so, could you provide the evidence for this from anywhere at all?

I have no idea. Looking at NYC/NYS can be helpful in that it points out exactly the scale of the issue, but beyond that I'd be just as fine using Chicago, LA, Houston, Boston, or any other city. Im quite perplexed, though, why you seem to be obsessed with how well/poorly NY is doing. In fact, a good amount of that post you made above is dedicated to creating some false world where everyone is "in the first five stages of grief" and "spreading a science-denying and math-denying narrative about New York City", and how everyone is so obsessed with it and superstar cities when in reality you were the first one to talk about NYC, the one to post all about it in the thread "NY fastest-declining in USA — New York state Decline Thread, 2020s", the thread you created, and seem rather eager to constantly bring up anything about it, as you literally just did in the tables above. Maybe a look in the mirror is in order?

Anyway, the issue for the census has always been their inability to correctly model migration patterns, both internal and external. In a way, its not really their fault nor is it a new issue; they've had migration counting woes since at least the 1990 census. It all stems from the data set they use: Social Security, Medicare (65+), and tax returns(0-64). As is probably evident, each data figure is supposed to cover US demographics as best as is able; Medicare tracks those over 65, tax returns track those under 65, and every citizen has a Social Security card.

This system, however, falls apart when you consider international migration, and their subsequent migration within the US. Many immigrants, especially illegal immigrants, do not have a Social Security number, are not filed under Medicare, or do not send in tax forms. This creates the fundamental error, that the migration pattern calculations are much better at determining where the domestic-born US population is moving (particularly the olds since they make up an abnormally large amount of the data set relative to their population count which is also a problem but I digress) than where the foreign-born US population is moving. Combine that with the fact that these migration numbers are extrapolated on a large scale, and you start to see where the issue lies in these figures.

Of course, most people see this issue, which is why there's been such extreme pushback. None of the data we have really lines up at all with what the Census estimates suggest. Hell, all you even have to support your point is public school enrollment, which has 7000 other just as likely explanations (charter/private/homeschooling increasing in popularity after COVID being the most obvious one) and is also not unique to NYC:

https://www.statesman.com/story/news/education/2022/11/13/austin-district-schools-see-enrollment-declines-in-decade-long-trend/69630783007/
https://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/education/article272508826.html

as well as economic recovery being somewhat slower back in 2020, which is inherently a pretty silly point that has way more to do with government policy at the time and what kinda companies work in NYC (turns out a lot of it can be done remotely). Meanwhile, almost every other reliable tracker, such as rents, economic data, and even the NYC subway tracker largely disputes this idea of continued decline.

Oh, and lets talk about that rent figure, cause this is the whole reason I wrote this post. The article you linked...whooooooo boy, its awful. Its so intensely awful of a read. The entire premise of the article is that NYC "cannot be back" because:

1. Everyone I know is working from home and left NYC
2. I don't like NYC. Seriously, did you see all the rats? How could anyone move to NYC with all of these rats everywhere?
3. The Census Estimates say so, and they must be 100% correct

And it then proceeds to use circular logic to justify this as the case. In the end, the article comes to the brilliant conclusion that landlords on a mass scale are artificially taking hundreds of thousands of units off the market in order to artificially inflate prices and no one else has noticed this but this one writer. It was the most batsh**t conspiracy nonsense I've ever seen, reminiscent of the classic "Oh all the properties in this city are bought by foreigners and that's why everything's expensive", bit ironic since you called out how others were "spreading a science-denying and math-denying narrative". Or maybe, demand is just high. And supply is very low. Cause we just had a pandemic where everyone started moving around. Prices literally increased almost everywhere for a reason.

I get liking data, but these are estimates for a reason; they're trying to create close-enough figures to what population counts may look like. Taking these things as gospel is basically equivalent to taking any singular poll of an election as the sole truth. And in this case where there's some pretty clear structural issues that have been present since the 90s, it's probably wise to treat said numbers with the adequate amount of salt.

[oldtimer]

Another underrated factor that suggests NYC isn’t shrinking is subway ridership stats, which are absolute; several stations are getting close to their pre-2020 ridership levels, even in areas where any sort of population loss would likely be coming from.

The areas that still have the biggest subway hits are ironically the areas that were fastest growing (Williamsburg, Upper East Side). I think this is because a lot of folks in these communities have upper middle class jobs where they can still work remotely much of the time.

I’d be curious if someone could perform simillar analysis with CTA and WMATA numbers.



(Here’s current subway ridership map, I can try to make a pre-pandemic one as well for comparison)

The population of New York City is definitely down if I use the subway traffic numbers, in 2019 it was 5.5 million, now it's stable at 3.75 million. That's a 30% decline there.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Another underrated factor that suggests NYC isn’t shrinking is subway ridership stats, which are absolute; several stations are getting close to their pre-2020 ridership levels, even in areas where any sort of population loss would likely be coming from.

The areas that still have the biggest subway hits are ironically the areas that were fastest growing (Williamsburg, Upper East Side). I think this is because a lot of folks in these communities have upper middle class jobs where they can still work remotely much of the time.

I’d be curious if someone could perform simillar analysis with CTA and WMATA numbers.



(Here’s current subway ridership map, I can try to make a pre-pandemic one as well for comparison)

The population of New York City is definitely down if I use the subway traffic numbers, in 2019 it was 5.5 million, now it's stable at 3.75 million. That's a 30% decline there.

It’s now more like 4 million but the point isn’t the overall loss; it’s Where that loss is coming from; the biggest chunk of ridership loss is from the CBD (Midtown and Lower Manhattan), and communities that tend to have a lot of folks who work in those jobs (Williamsburg, Long Island City, Dumbo). To me that indicates fewer people commuting to work, not an actual loss of people.

Also, there are a few examples of subway lines Where ridership is approaching pre-pandemic levels, such as the end of the (7) in Queens.

[oldtimer]

Another underrated factor that suggests NYC isn’t shrinking is subway ridership stats, which are absolute; several stations are getting close to their pre-2020 ridership levels, even in areas where any sort of population loss would likely be coming from.

The areas that still have the biggest subway hits are ironically the areas that were fastest growing (Williamsburg, Upper East Side). I think this is because a lot of folks in these communities have upper middle class jobs where they can still work remotely much of the time.

I’d be curious if someone could perform simillar analysis with CTA and WMATA numbers.



(Here’s current subway ridership map, I can try to make a pre-pandemic one as well for comparison)

The population of New York City is definitely down if I use the subway traffic numbers, in 2019 it was 5.5 million, now it's stable at 3.75 million. That's a 30% decline there.

It’s now more like 4 million but the point isn’t the overall loss; it’s Where that loss is coming from; the biggest chunk of ridership loss is from the CBD (Midtown and Lower Manhattan), and communities that tend to have a lot of folks who work in those jobs (Williamsburg, Long Island City, Dumbo). To me that indicates fewer people commuting to work, not an actual loss of people.

Also, there are a few examples of subway lines Where ridership is approaching pre-pandemic levels, such as the end of the (7) in Queens.

Nevertheless, it never made sense in the modern era to have offices at expensive places where most workers don't live.

If most of your workers live in Jersey or Long Island, it would be cheaper to move it there, it would save commuting time too.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Another underrated factor that suggests NYC isn’t shrinking is subway ridership stats, which are absolute; several stations are getting close to their pre-2020 ridership levels, even in areas where any sort of population loss would likely be coming from.

The areas that still have the biggest subway hits are ironically the areas that were fastest growing (Williamsburg, Upper East Side). I think this is because a lot of folks in these communities have upper middle class jobs where they can still work remotely much of the time.

I’d be curious if someone could perform simillar analysis with CTA and WMATA numbers.



(Here’s current subway ridership map, I can try to make a pre-pandemic one as well for comparison)

The population of New York City is definitely down if I use the subway traffic numbers, in 2019 it was 5.5 million, now it's stable at 3.75 million. That's a 30% decline there.

It’s now more like 4 million but the point isn’t the overall loss; it’s Where that loss is coming from; the biggest chunk of ridership loss is from the CBD (Midtown and Lower Manhattan), and communities that tend to have a lot of folks who work in those jobs (Williamsburg, Long Island City, Dumbo). To me that indicates fewer people commuting to work, not an actual loss of people.

Also, there are a few examples of subway lines Where ridership is approaching pre-pandemic levels, such as the end of the (7) in Queens.

Nevertheless, it never made sense in the modern era to have offices at expensive places where most workers don't live.

If most of your workers live in Jersey or Long Island, it would be cheaper to move it there, it would save commuting time too.

Yep def agree. A lot of the new mega-talls going up these days in Midtown and FiDi are luxury overpriced apartments and condos; i suspect midtown and FiDi will become a lot more Residnetail in my life time.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Idk if this is just me, but these estimates seem to have a pretty universal theme that D communities are shrinking or at least stalling in population relative to previous census, while R areas are doing better. I wonder if there's some sort of reason for this because these estimates aren't politically biased, but if there was truly this theme of folks fleeing "Democratic cities", surely it would've shown up in the 2020 census.

[Skill and Chance]

Idk if this is just me, but these estimates seem to have a pretty universal theme that D communities are shrinking or at least stalling in population relative to previous census, while R areas are doing better. I wonder if there's some sort of reason for this because these estimates aren't politically biased, but if there was truly this theme of folks fleeing "Democratic cities", surely it would've shown up in the 2020 census.

April 2020 was way too early to pick up most of it.  The expectation is that an April 2021 based census would look dramatically different.