French presidential election, 2022

[parochial boy]

You know, it's easy to say you hope Le Pen gets elected when you wouldn't being one feeling the consequences. A Le Pen presidency would be a horrific experience for the French, and downright dangerous for migrants and ethnic minorities and people who don't conform to the standard type of what a French person should apparently look like. Just because there are people who are worse who are now polling worse doesn't make the real threat presented by Le Pen any less frightening.

The whole "the big right shift" thing is also a classic case of is it the media driving the agenda or responding to a real demand?

Remember also that all the big social movements of recent year, even the gilets jaunes, were not actually at all motivated by migration or security as a theme. Which indicates it's not actually the main preoccupation really and does make it seem like the current narrative as much a media creation more than reflective of a great demand for unhinged racism of the part of the average French citizen.

Can someone explain how anyone running for President for "Les Republicains" would distinguish themselves from Macron? Seems to me like Macron has governed very much like an LR moderate cut from the same cloth as someone like Alain Juppe. Is there ANY issue that actually separates Macron from people like Bertrand or Pecresse or is basically just offering the same thing with a different label?  

A sort of trite answer would be that Macron has moved on to the traditional right's turf -and that the LR and associated acts have moved into the turf of the RN.

Beyond that the old right do play up the conservative values stuff (both Pécresse and Bertrand were against marriage equality etc...) and the Macron administration does have the occasional progressive hints. So for instance they extended the right to IVF treatment to lesbian couples; Olivier Véran (the health minister) recently announced that female contraception would be covered by health insurance and snapped back against the proposals going round to get rid of the allocation de rentrée scolaire (money to cover school expenses). These are all things that you would never see coming from the traditional right. So even despite the xenophobic turn, there are still visible elements of the progressive/social liberal image he presented in 2017.

And
https://twitter.com/mathieugallard/status/1444220359566413824

Yes I know it's only crosstabs - but seems to confirm points made earlier about Zemmour's potential electorate being rather more middle class than the Le Pen one. And also very, very male.

[Geoffrey Howe]

On that chart Zemmour gets the same number of votes from Fillon as from Le Pen. Pretty telling. Wonder where his strongest areas will be - my instinct for that sort of electorate is PACA (specifically the coast) and Alsace - very much a Le Pen Sr coalition. It'd be interesting to see how well he might do in wealthy parts of IdF.

[DL]

Can someone explain how anyone running for President for "Les Republicains" would distinguish themselves from Macron? Seems to me like Macron has governed very much like an LR moderate cut from the same cloth as someone like Alain Juppe. Is there ANY issue that actually separates Macron from people like Bertrand or Pecresse or is basically just offering the same thing with a different label?  

A sort of trite answer would be that Macron has moved on to the traditional right's turf -and that the LR and associated acts have moved into the turf of the RN.

Beyond that the old right do play up the conservative values stuff (both Pécresse and Bertrand were against marriage equality etc...) and the Macron administration does have the occasional progressive hints. So for instance they extended the right to IVF treatment to lesbian couples; Olivier Véran (the health minister) recently announced that female contraception would be covered by health insurance and snapped back against the proposals going round to get rid of the allocation de rentrée scolaire (money to cover school expenses). These are all things that you would never see coming from the traditional right. So even despite the xenophobic turn, there are still visible elements of the progressive/social liberal image he presented in 2017.

OK, I get that Macron is not exactly the ideological successor to Charles DeGaulle - but he strikes me as ideologically a bit of a modern day version of Valery Giscard d'Estaing (who as you may recall positioned himself in the 1970s and the modern socially liberal version of the French right) or of Edouard Balladur. Even Chirac seemed to govern as a pretty socially moderate president. So I return to my original question, if you are Bertrand or Pecresse - what is the argument for why I should vote for you and not Macron? Would an LR president run on a platform of wanting to repeal same sex marriage and outlaw abortion rights? What else have they got as an issue?

[Zinneke]

I'd add to what parochial boy said to the difference between LR and Macron : Macron might be a shameless neo-liberal who sells off state assets and keeps the pensioners happy, he still occasionally throws some bones to the Millenial/Gen Z (mostly just by preserving PS schemes to help them get on the labour market). An LR administration would almost certainly completely disregard the young and it allows Macron to get a semblance of a young electorate, even if his core electorate is still old. I also think LR engage in light euroscepticism and climate skepticism where Macron on both issues, at least in his communication, is pretty positive. Lastly, something only a few picked up from the LREM/Macron phenomenon, is that while Macron did identify and exploit a sense political decay in France, he sold a positive message, whereas LR tend to be nostalgic and push the "France in decline" narrative using only the past as a horizon. Zemmour is also like this and it will be his downfall.

I am really curious though how a Macron vs Bertrand/Pecresse map would look like though. I think we'll see some pretty strange results in some parts.

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1445748194885783557

[Geoffrey Howe]

In case you thought Zemmour was a "friendlier" version of Le Pen, here are some quotes of his:

"No small town, no small village in France is safe from a savage squad of Chechen, Kosovar, Maghrebi or African gangs who steal, rape, pillage, torture and kill."

"When the young bus driver slips a concupiscent hand on a charming female backside, the young woman does not sue for sexual harassment...Trust reigns." (Apparently this indicates how good relations between the sexes used to be.)

"This quest for parity is like the quest for morality, it has no end. Don't give women the social or the family, they need finance or defence! It'll never be enough."

"To call your child Mohammed is to colonise France" (He wants to ban foreign names.)


The fact that this sort of person is on the evening news night after night and a serious contender for the presidential race who supposedly strikes a chord with popular sentiment is an indication of just how far France has gone in its collective hysteria.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

In case you thought Zemmour was a "friendlier" version of Le Pen, here are some quotes of his:

"No small town, no small village in France is safe from a savage squad of Chechen, Kosovar, Maghrebi or African gangs who steal, rape, pillage, torture and kill."

"When the young bus driver slips a concupiscent hand on a charming female backside, the young woman does not sue for sexual harassment...Trust reigns." (Apparently this indicates how good relations between the sexes used to be.)

"This quest for parity is like the quest for morality, it has no end. Don't give women the social or the family, they need finance or defence! It'll never be enough."

"To call your child Mohammed is to colonise France" (He wants to ban foreign names.)


The fact that this sort of person is on the evening news night after night and a serious contender for the presidential race who supposedly strikes a chord with popular sentiment is an indication of just how far France has gone in its collective hysteria.

The fact that people on /r/europe were acting like that's a reasonable and non-racist policy was deeply disturbing.

[Estrella]

In case you thought Zemmour was a "friendlier" version of Le Pen, here are some quotes of his:

"No small town, no small village in France is safe from a savage squad of Chechen, Kosovar, Maghrebi or African gangs who steal, rape, pillage, torture and kill."

"When the young bus driver slips a concupiscent hand on a charming female backside, the young woman does not sue for sexual harassment...Trust reigns." (Apparently this indicates how good relations between the sexes used to be.)

"This quest for parity is like the quest for morality, it has no end. Don't give women the social or the family, they need finance or defence! It'll never be enough."

"To call your child Mohammed is to colonise France" (He wants to ban foreign names.)


The fact that this sort of person is on the evening news night after night and a serious contender for the presidential race who supposedly strikes a chord with popular sentiment is an indication of just how far France has gone in its collective hysteria.

The fact that people on /r/europe were acting like that's a reasonable and non-racist policy was deeply disturbing.

For some reason, European Reddit is much more conservative on social issues than not-explicitly-far-right Anglo Reddit. Of course, it's partly the fact that even Western Europe is more conservative than it seems (as in this case), but it seems to go further than that.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

So the general sentiment in France right now is... for an entire political spectrum of different types of racists as candidates? A hard-Right racist of one sort, a hard-Right racist of another kind, a Conservative racist, a liberal racist, a left-wing racist...'

https://twitter.com/dril/status/841892608788041732?lang=en

French politics today

[Zinneke]

In case you thought Zemmour was a "friendlier" version of Le Pen, here are some quotes of his:

"No small town, no small village in France is safe from a savage squad of Chechen, Kosovar, Maghrebi or African gangs who steal, rape, pillage, torture and kill."

"When the young bus driver slips a concupiscent hand on a charming female backside, the young woman does not sue for sexual harassment...Trust reigns." (Apparently this indicates how good relations between the sexes used to be.)

"This quest for parity is like the quest for morality, it has no end. Don't give women the social or the family, they need finance or defence! It'll never be enough."

"To call your child Mohammed is to colonise France" (He wants to ban foreign names.)


The fact that this sort of person is on the evening news night after night and a serious contender for the presidential race who supposedly strikes a chord with popular sentiment is an indication of just how far France has gone in its collective hysteria.

Maybe wait till the election before making such generalizations. There is a reason he's on roughly 13%. There's this generalized hype about France heading towards the fascist precipice from the Anglo-Saxon media, but then which were the two-three countries who did elect RWPPs or people to power? It wouldn't be the 3 that signed a certain defence deal recently, would it?

Anyway, France's decline is steady. I actually think someone like Onfray (before he became a caricature of himself, which is what TV exposure does to you) holds views that are more in line with the general population's views than Zemmour. Increasing disassociation from the democratic exercise in France, belief that France is at the center of a vortex of Western civilizational decay that is irreversible, belief that the only way to go through it is to stay dignified in light of what Americans jere would call the "clown world". Still left-wing on a lot of the bread and butter issues, but resolutely anti-woke and wanting only controlled immigration. Of the two intellectuals Onfray was the one regularly touted to try to get into politics but he refuses and basically is a leading light in the people who just vote white, the abstentionnistes convaincus that Coluche joked about. They are probably far more representative of median France than Zemmour.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

In case you thought Zemmour was a "friendlier" version of Le Pen, here are some quotes of his:

"No small town, no small village in France is safe from a savage squad of Chechen, Kosovar, Maghrebi or African gangs who steal, rape, pillage, torture and kill."

"When the young bus driver slips a concupiscent hand on a charming female backside, the young woman does not sue for sexual harassment...Trust reigns." (Apparently this indicates how good relations between the sexes used to be.)

"This quest for parity is like the quest for morality, it has no end. Don't give women the social or the family, they need finance or defence! It'll never be enough."

"To call your child Mohammed is to colonise France" (He wants to ban foreign names.)


The fact that this sort of person is on the evening news night after night and a serious contender for the presidential race who supposedly strikes a chord with popular sentiment is an indication of just how far France has gone in its collective hysteria.

Maybe wait till the election before making such generalizations. There is a reason he's on roughly 13%. There's this generalized hype about France heading towards the fascist precipice from the Anglo-Saxon media, but then which were the two-three countries who did elect RWPPs or people to power? It wouldn't be the 3 that signed a certain defence deal recently, would it?

Add his vote and Le Penn and that's a disturbingly large number.

[Former President tack50]

For some reason, European Reddit is much more conservative on social issues than not-explicitly-far-right Anglo Reddit. Of course, it's partly the fact that even Western Europe is more conservative than it seems (as in this case), but it seems to go further than that.

From my experience it is really more that Euro Reddit in general and /r/Europe in particular are actually quite progressive on most issues, but on the topic of immigration it is super conservative. I do not know exactly why but it is what it is. Kinda reminds me of the good old meme



Replace "Romani" with immigrants in general

[Geoffrey Howe]

In case you thought Zemmour was a "friendlier" version of Le Pen, here are some quotes of his:

"No small town, no small village in France is safe from a savage squad of Chechen, Kosovar, Maghrebi or African gangs who steal, rape, pillage, torture and kill."

"When the young bus driver slips a concupiscent hand on a charming female backside, the young woman does not sue for sexual harassment...Trust reigns." (Apparently this indicates how good relations between the sexes used to be.)

"This quest for parity is like the quest for morality, it has no end. Don't give women the social or the family, they need finance or defence! It'll never be enough."

"To call your child Mohammed is to colonise France" (He wants to ban foreign names.)


The fact that this sort of person is on the evening news night after night and a serious contender for the presidential race who supposedly strikes a chord with popular sentiment is an indication of just how far France has gone in its collective hysteria.

Maybe wait till the election before making such generalizations. There is a reason he's on roughly 13%. There's this generalized hype about France heading towards the fascist precipice from the Anglo-Saxon media, but then which were the two-three countries who did elect RWPPs or people to power? It wouldn't be the 3 that signed a certain defence deal recently, would it?

Anyway, France's decline is steady. I actually think someone like Onfray (before he became a caricature of himself, which is what TV exposure does to you) holds views that are more in line with the general population's views than Zemmour. Increasing disassociation from the democratic exercise in France, belief that France is at the center of a vortex of Western civilizational decay that is irreversible, belief that the only way to go through it is to stay dignified in light of what Americans jere would call the "clown world". Still left-wing on a lot of the bread and butter issues, but resolutely anti-woke and wanting only controlled immigration. Of the two intellectuals Onfray was the one regularly touted to try to get into politics but he refuses and basically is a leading light in the people who just vote white, the abstentionnistes convaincus that Coluche joked about. They are probably far more representative of median France than Zemmour.

I'm not saying everyone agrees with him but that what he says strikes a chord with a disturbingly large number; even those who might not agree with everything he says. 13% in what is already a massive field is pretty impressive.
 

[America Needs R'hllor]

For some reason, European Reddit is much more conservative on social issues than not-explicitly-far-right Anglo Reddit. Of course, it's partly the fact that even Western Europe is more conservative than it seems (as in this case), but it seems to go further than that.

From my experience it is really more that Euro Reddit in general and /r/Europe in particular are actually quite progressive on most issues, but on the topic of immigration it is super conservative. I do not know exactly why but it is what it is. Kinda reminds me of the good old meme



Replace "Romani" with immigrants in general

I agree with this, but I do think it's worth remembering that the US is, percentage-wise, receiving immigrants mostly from countries in South America and Asia that aren't really culturally similar but are much more similar, and much less religious-conservative, than the Middle Eastern countries Europe gets a lot of refugees from. It's uncomfortable for liberals to think about, but when you have whole communities which are extremely religious and extremely conservative, you have entire areas that become unsafe for Jews with a kippa, for "unmodest" women, for gay couples etc. It's not an argument against immigration, but it's something we have to remember when we accuse Europe of being bad at assimilation (which I do agree it's pretty bad at).

[DL]

A microcosm of that Europe vs America perspective on social issues and immigration can be seen in Canada in the stark contrast in attitudes between Quebec and the rest of Canada. English Canada (for the most part) embraces multiculturalism and diversity and it would be unthinkable that any jurisdiction outside Quebec would ever try to restrict what clothes religious people are allowed to wear etc... and there is literally ZERO debate about whether or not Canada should accept immigrants from Muslim countries etc... In contrast in Quebec - which is very socially liberal on things like the environment and LGBTQ rights etc... - there is this wave of extreme xenophobia when it comes to immigration or of anyone who looks at all different from the majority. I think francophone Quebecers likely consume a lot of media from France and so they have jumped on this "laicite" bandwagon which is really just a smokescreen for discrimination. There are now very draconian "France-style" laws in Quebec that bar anyone who wears any religious symbols or clothes from working in the entire broader public sector etc...and attitudes towards minorities and immigrants are invariably much more hostile in Quebec than in the rest of Canada - even though immigration to Quebec is low by Canadian standards and most Quebecers (unless they live in Montreal) have likely never seen a Muslim woman wearing a hihjab in their lives...but i digress 

[parochial boy]

Yes, yes we get it. Us continental Europeans are just a bunch of barbaric racists who should bow down to the moral superiority of the anglophone world and it's oh-so-progressive debates about whether or not poor people and black people should be allowed to vote or whether or not trans people are rapists.

Could we go back to talking about the French election please? Instead of the pop-sociology?

Anyway, France's decline is steady. I actually think someone like Onfray (before he became a caricature of himself, which is what TV exposure does to you) holds views that are more in line with the general population's views than Zemmour. Increasing disassociation from the democratic exercise in France, belief that France is at the center of a vortex of Western civilizational decay that is irreversible, belief that the only way to go through it is to stay dignified in light of what Americans jere would call the "clown world".

That Europe 1 interview the other week, among other things, did sort of serve to make him look like a reactionary nutter ranting about people having late term abortions for fun and whatever. Onfray seems very much to have gone the BHL TV-philosopher route of dissapearing into a hole of his own pretentiousness and over-inflated self perception. The real cultural question is to why exactly France seems to produce quite so many of the insufferably smug "intellectuals"?

[Geoffrey Howe]

Seems to have gone under the radar: Le Pen Senior is pretty openly supporting Zemmour. He has been comparing him to himself and says that he will support Zemmour if he is "best-placed." Add to that his recent grumbling that the RN has lost its "virility" (a word Zemmour is very fond of) and it seems fairly clear what he thinks.

[Agafin]

I've just realised that Zemmour is an all-around right-winger. Unlike LePen who seems to skirt with a lot of leftwing/pro-worker economic policies (like a lot of these far-right European politicians do), he seems to be fiscally conservative in addition to his social and cultural conservatism.

What I wonder is, does that make him a more fringe candidate or does that help him? The left will probably hate him even more than they hae LePen but what about Les républicains ? Le Pen has always polled terribly with older voters (who are the most reliable demographic and a solidly republican group if Fillon's 2017 vote is anything to go by) whereas I assume Zemmour's flavor of conservatism might appeal to them more. He is effectively a more extreme version of Sarkozy.

[DL]

In a hypothetical run-off between Macron (le President pour les riches) and Zemmour (le President pour les plus riches) - who would working class, lower income people vote for? Or would they stay home in larger than usual numbers?

[America Needs R'hllor]

So the general sentiment in France right now is... for an entire political spectrum of different types of racists as candidates? A hard-Right racist of one sort, a hard-Right racist of another kind, a Conservative racist, a liberal racist, a left-wing racist...'

The candidates are simply reflecting the current general sentiment in France in order to be electorally viable. The traditional Gaullist right and also the socialists are completely dead and don’t appeal to the French population like they did in the past.

French elections will be a sh**tshow not because of lack of options, but because France is one of the countries with strongest anti-immigration fervor right now. Even Macron (shockingly the least right-wing option in the top 4 according to the polls) has to adopt some of the racist subtext in order to not be rejected by French society.

Last IPSOS poll was:

Macron (“center”) - 24%
Le Pen (right) - 16%
Zemmour (far-right) - 15%
Bertrand (center-right) - 14%
Mélenchon (left) - 9%
Jadot (greens) - 9%
Hidalgo (center-left) - 5,5%
Others: don’t reach more than 2% each

Just to give an idea of how much right-wing France is right now. And the sentiment only grows. I think it’s for the better that someone like Le Pen gets elected so that the trend can reverse sooner.

I think it's more along the lines of:
Macron (“center”) - 24%
Le Pen (far-right) - 16%
Zemmour (far-right) - 15%
Bertrand (right) - 14%
Mélenchon (far-left) - 9%
Jadot (greens) - 9%
Hidalgo (center-left) - 5,5%

Which paints an image that is even more hysteric

[CumbrianLefty]

As they love to tell each other, France and the UK have many significant differences.

But they also have one big thing in common - both were major imperial powers.

Lingering effects of that still contributing to the political malaise in both countries today?

[Oryxslayer]

Lingering effects of that still contributing to the political malaise in both countries today?

I mean in France those lingering effects can be found across the south in communities of Pied-Noir descendants raised in an environment of nostalgia. Given that this group is now nearing retirement age, they are the prefect floor of support for Le Pen and the ilk near her politically.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Indeed, Zemmour himself is the son of pieds-noirs.

[parochial boy]

Zemmour is Algerian Jewish in origin, so it's a bit complicated (and Méluche is Moroccan born, there are loads about).

What's particularly, umm, weird is that Zemmour is also an ardent defender of Pétain and Maurice Papon and reckons they didn't merely do nothing wrong, but were actually in the right vis-à-vis how Jewish people were treated by the Vichy régime. Which would already be frightening enough in it's own right.

[Zinneke]

Zemmour is Algerian Jewish in origin, so it's a bit complicated (and Méluche is Moroccan born, there are loads about).

What's particularly, umm, weird is that Zemmour is also an ardent defender of Pétain and Maurice Papon and reckons they didn't merely do nothing wrong, but were actually in the right vis-à-vis how Jewish people were treated by the Vichy régime. Which would already be frightening enough in it's own right.

Zemmour peddles with the theory that Petain gave up foreign Jews to save French Jews and that was fulfilling his job description. I mean it's textbook political comm 101. Make a.controversial statement, make the media hype happen then seek to clarify, putting water into your wine. Vlaams Belang and Baudet do this.

Zemmour really is just overcompensating for a lot of things though. His height. His "tête de juif maghrébin". His foreign origins (I actually wouldn't call him pied noir) in general. The fact that had he not dropped out at one of those elite schools he'd probably be some LR politician's party trick to wheel out to say "hey look at my Supersmart assistant".

He reminds me of Baudet in another sense. An almost-elite populist for almost-elite people who turned into nihilist big brained intellectuals that resent the public sector and creative classes as a result of not being them. Very good communicators though.