French presidential election, 2022

[Senator Incitatus]

But that would make them Horrible People you see. The logic is literally "woah my Muslim Uber driving neighbor might get deported under Le Pen but there's no way I'm stopping that by voting Macron because he wants to put up my retirement age".

...

This is a straightforward enough choice to be used in a Le Pen ad.

[Zinneke]

Anyway, Macron has not made raising the retirement age his number 1 campaign pledge, and it is not the reason he is failing. The reason he is failing is that he has forgotten how to campaign. He has no real campaigning structure behind him - LREM grandees are all terrible at actual bread and butter campaigning, there's no real local grassroots presence. And his speaking has become overtheatrical - even by French standards! - to a point where he is basically acting the same way he did in his high school theatre production. Personalities do matter in a hyper presidentialised system and he has always been, as a personality, extremely polarizing.

What"s the point of going on really, she'll get rid of me, deprive me of my country of birth and all i've ever known, everything i had to live for

I don't want Le Pen to win at all but realistically she would be constrained in how bad she could muck things up.

She's not going to be able to deport all the scary browns even if she wanted to.

RM will have at most 30 seats in the National Assembly and the courts probably wouldn't look favourably on her if she pulled anything crazy.

It would be a mess of a presidency but realistically not the end of the world.

A president can still dissolve civil society groups, exit international agreements, use police and military structures to their advantage and cause enough damage to maybe not cause the end of the world but certainly alter the European geopolitical map for the worse.

It doesn't matter if it's Le Pen or Mélenchon - both of them are not as idiotic as Trump and will wage a war against the legislative, the civil service, the electoral boards, their old enemies (shutting down CSOs on the basis of security). People who think France can just ride this out the same way the US did with Trump by basically managing the top job don't understand that these people are professional politicians.

[Sir Mohamed]

The momentum's on Le Pen's side now. I really think she wins

Do you think she comes in on top in the 1st round? And don't you think there will be some reckoning after that and a Stop-LePen coalition in the 2nd round?

If she actually wins, you can certainly thank left-wing voters switching over or staying home. Gives me some 2016 vibes (although I don't think Sanders cost HRC the election).

[parochial boy]

If she wins, much of the responsibility will lie directly at Macron's feet. 5 years of taking the votes that the left lent him in 2017 for granted; a quite frankly abusive and contemptuous policy agenda of handouts to the rich, cuts to the poor; the violent and disdainful response to the gilets jaunes and other social movements. As well as 5 years of indulging and normalising far right narratives (do we get out the photo of him smiling next to Philippe De Villiers? or of Darmanin calling Le Pen "too soft") to the point that they are now accepted as self-evident truths will have obviously all taken their toll in both radicalising the french electorate to the right and alienating the working class or left wing voters who held their noses 5 years ago.

Add to that, a frankly disdainful campaign (lack of one actually) marked by a Thatcherite policy agenda and a refusal to turn up to debates and defend his record over the last five years.

Yes, there is a reckoning to be had on the left after the first round. And No, this reckoning hasn't even started, because discussion in left wing circles is still overwhelmingly focussed on the tactical-Mélenchon-vote question. But, it is worth saying this, you don't get to just blackmail and gaslight people and expect that this won't have consequences. Macron has had five years to be better and more respectful and more engaging and if he loses; well, the current focus on here that this is entirely about what left wing voters do or don't do in three weeks is more an attempt to find a scapegoat than to engage with this.

(and if we're honest, the other side of the story that hasn't been mentioned so far is that Le Pen has actually campaigned well - and Zemmour has helped her seem moderate. More to the point though, she has focussed on actually shoring up her base and doing the grassroots work and meetings. As opposed to the big TV appointments that other candidates have been doing. The campaign has also been, well, soft. Lots of focus on her as a "human" - like how she loves cats and stuff, serious; moves to make her seem "unifying" and "caring" and so on that have meant that the polling indicates far more people being willing to see her as "presidential" or no longer see her as completely beyond the pail like 5 years ago. Obviously the agenda is as radical and horrifying as it always was, but the story the RN are telling around it is markedly different and seems to be succesful)

In any case, I don't think she will win, and I think the way the discussion has turned on here is a testament to this  - suddenly - we are seeing a bit of an "oh shït" moment in the narrative, as people start to to account of what now seems like a very credible risk.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/PhilippePoutou/status/1511646315326881797

lmao

[Blair]

It’s interesting how Macrom appeared to have a 5 year strategy of essentially hugging the traditional centre right- it seems to have killed the LR in the first round but doesn’t seem to be benefiting him in the second round, nor massively increasing his first round vote.

I wonder if he’ll wheel out Sarkosky to endorse him…

[Blair]

I don’t follow French politics close enough to see normal coverage of it but it does seem that Macron is lacking the support that he got in 2017 from high profile figures people outside of LREM- I guess it’s a combination of burnt bridges.

There is of course the very real problem of 2027; it will be mildly hilarious to see who Macron thinks his heir should be judging by his cabinet picks over the past year. 

[parochial boy]

The operating assumption is that Édouard Philippe is Macron's annointed successor. All the noises are that he is in the processes of preparing a 2027 bid.

On that note, it seems unlikely that a segment of Macron's electorate will return to left in a post-FBM world. There's plenty of stuff around (ie polling on self-identification or on the perception of Macron's ideological positioning) that seems to suggest that Hollande-Macron switchers have moved durably right - or at least that the Macron effect has principally opened up an acceptable route for those sorts of people to support an economically liberal candidate. Obviously not saying never, the right messing might be able to move things and all... but I would imagine that the inheritance of Macron's movement is that the LREM constellation installs itself as the mainstream centre right for the long term.

[Boobs]

I would imagine that the inheritance of Macron's movement is that the LREM constellation installs itself as the mainstream centre right for the long term.

At the expense of LR? It would pretty hilarious from an observational perspective if Macron killed both of the former major parties. Though I imagine on the ground it's far grimmer considering the future trajectories of the further-right and the remnants of the left.

[Oryxslayer]

I would imagine that the inheritance of Macron's movement is that the LREM constellation installs itself as the mainstream centre right for the long term.

At the expense of LR? It would pretty hilarious from an observational perspective if Macron killed both of the former major parties. Though I imagine on the ground it's far grimmer considering the future trajectories of the further-right and the remnants of the left.

I mean we have yet to see the legislative elections, but judging from where LR stood in 2017, and what is happening now, it's not hard to imagine them getting cannibalized by LREM and an insurgent FN that seeks to try and become a serious opposition party. At which point they look just like PS - a party dominated by councilors - only the LR mainstream and UDI probably have fewer qualms aligning with LREM if thats what happens.

Which is probably one of the reasons why the "left" parties are all playing more for the legislatives and future positioning: a center to right LREM opens a potential window that was shut by a center-left to center-right LREM. Obviously though the 'right' pool of voters is smaller thanks to the far-right and not just LREM, and FN isn't going anywhere after this contest.

[parochial boy]

I would imagine that the inheritance of Macron's movement is that the LREM constellation installs itself as the mainstream centre right for the long term.

At the expense of LR? It would pretty hilarious from an observational perspective if Macron killed both of the former major parties. Though I imagine on the ground it's far grimmer considering the future trajectories of the further-right and the remnants of the left.

There seem to be rumours about wholesale defections from LR to LREM after the election - and Ciotti and Wauquiez seem to be maneuvering to push the party in an even more hard right direction after Pécresse goes down in flames. So, I don't know what they think they are supposed to be doing right now, and I don't think they do either. Because, yeah, if LREM are for the long term it's hard to see exactly what LR could sell that isn't already being covered better by someone else. Probably a long term destiny as a vague LREM satellite in the way that the PS might be to whatever force (eventually) emerges on the left. No promises though because there is a huge amount of flux.

The difference is, if you're right wing then at least there's still a going to be a mostly acceptable option for you out there whatever the case. If you're on the left, well, ha...

[President Johnson]

It’s interesting how Macrom appeared to have a 5 year strategy of essentially hugging the traditional centre right- it seems to have killed the LR in the first round but doesn’t seem to be benefiting him in the second round, nor massively increasing his first round vote.

I wonder if he’ll wheel out Sarkosky to endorse him…

Sarkozy did so already in 2017? Anyway, I don't think an endorsement by the old crook would change much at all.

[Death of a Salesman]

The operating assumption is that Édouard Philippe is Macron's annointed successor. All the noises are that he is in the processes of preparing a 2027 bid.

On that note, it seems unlikely that a segment of Macron's electorate will return to left in a post-FBM world. There's plenty of stuff around (ie polling on self-identification or on the perception of Macron's ideological positioning) that seems to suggest that Hollande-Macron switchers have moved durably right - or at least that the Macron effect has principally opened up an acceptable route for those sorts of people to support an economically liberal candidate. Obviously not saying never, the right messing might be able to move things and all... but I would imagine that the inheritance of Macron's movement is that the LREM constellation installs itself as the mainstream centre right for the long term.

Mainstream centre left in the French context, not mainstream centre right. LREM might establish itself as the leading party of French liberals under Philippe, facing MMLP who creates the union des droites. But in that case LREM would be the center-left and MMLP the center-right. The French Left is a fairly marginal force at this point, and seems likely to remain so for the near future, given that a substantial fraction of their former voters have moved to LREM or RN.

[Zinneke]

Within that analysis one could note that there are a sizeable amount of left-thinking abstentionists.

And lol at Marion Marechal uniting the Right. She is far more divisive than her aunt.

[wbrocks67]

Voters memories are literally nothing anymore, but the way voters have simply forgiven Le Pen for her past is still shocking to me.

[ElectionsGuy]

Globalists everywhere freaking out

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1512064596915359764

[KaiserDave]

Petition to ban ElectionsGuy from the International Boards.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Literally one poll is not DOOM

[ElectionsGuy]

You can ban me all you want. You're just showing how intolerant you all are.

This is eerily similar to the trajectory of the Brexit vote, except Macron is doing about 5 points better on average. Brexit won by 3.8%. Two and half weeks, we'll see if it gets any closer or if Macron can get back into more comfortable territory. I would still say Macron is the favorite, but first-round results will tell us a lot.





Btw, I don't use "globalist" in a derogatory way. Many people proudly call themselves that, and those people are clearly scared of Le Pen winning. And they probably should be at this point. A Le Pen win would be another damning indictment of the "rules-based international order" and the popularity of NATO/EU.

[Oryxslayer]

Btw, I don't use "globalist" in a derogatory way. Many people proudly call themselves that, and those people are clearly scared of Le Pen winning. And they probably should be at this point. A Le Pen win would be another damning indictment of the "rules-based international order" and the popularity of NATO/EU.

That's a lot of buzzwords applied to an election which has gotten close because of none of them. Go back a few weeks when Nato and the EU were the big issues French media concerned themselves about, cause of Ukraine, and you see that this was Macron's high point in polling for several years. Got positive approval rating in a few polls, which should be impossible under the French system. If you actually cared to read and do research, you would know that the tightening is mainly cause of "it's the economy stupid."

[Coldstream]

You can ban me all you want. You're just showing how intolerant you all are.

This is eerily similar to the trajectory of the Brexit vote, except Macron is doing about 5 points better on average. Brexit won by 3.8%. Two and half weeks, we'll see if it gets any closer or if Macron can get back into more comfortable territory. I would still say Macron is the favorite, but first-round results will tell us a lot.





Btw, I don't use "globalist" in a derogatory way. Many people proudly call themselves that, and those people are clearly scared of Le Pen winning. And they probably should be at this point. A Le Pen win would be another damning indictment of the "rules-based international order" and the popularity of NATO/EU.

Le Pen winning would be a damning indictment of Emmanuel Macron, not the EU or NATO. Particularly since Le Pen isn’t even campaigning to leave the EU anymore.

The danger of a Le Pen presidency is what she will do to the Muslim & other immigrant populations in France, not her international impact which would be marginal. It’s not like Macron has been a huge help to NATO anyway. And even on NATO Le Pen has moderated.

[rob in cal]

  How much of the support to right wing candidates is due to the white French electorate realizing that with every passing year they are getting closer and closer to becoming a minority and its already visible in big chunks of urban areas?  So some of this electorate is rallying to parties which in essence are trying to claim to be the white French party, a ridiculous concept if 99% of the population is white, but if whites feel embattled and facing future minority status, such a reaction is predictable perhaps.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't the estimates of about one third of all births in France to either two or one non-white parents? Numbers like these are what could be pushing much of the French electorate into a "I'm going to replaced demographically so why not go down in flames fighting all the way" mindset.

[ꙮ]

You can ban me all you want. You're just showing how intolerant you all are.

Thought this was compucomp for a second.

To get back on topic: If Macron manages to lose this election he has nobody to blame but himself. This would be a spectacular collapse from what looked like a sure thing a month ago.

As somebody who is only somewhat informed about French governmental structure, what would a President Le Pen be able to do without a Parliamentary majority? I know the French President isn't powerless as in most European countries, but much of their power is only possible with the Parliamentary majority that most incoming French Presidents have.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

1. Runoff polling is in general of questionable value until the first round is complete and this particular poll was conducted by a Brazilian firm with no track record in France. Polling for this election is extremely frequent (arguably too frequent!) and nearly all recent polls show Macron with a hypothetical second round lead of between six and four points. More have shown larger leads (ten points, eight points etc) than have shown a deficit.

2. This is a well-established Community with certain rules of behaviour, rules that exist to keep the quality of discussion at a high level. Behaviour of the sort common on the rest of the internet, and on American-focused boards on this forum, is generally frowned on. This is not a matter of political censorship, but of accepted standards. Unless you abide by these standards you will not be welcome here.

[Hash]

I guess we were due for one shock poll from a little-known pollster that will bring out bad takes from people who have no clue what they're talking about/know zilch about French politics.

AtlasIntel is a Brazilian pollster which seems to have been the 'most accurate' pollster in the 2020 US election as well as in Argentina in 2019. But they have no track record whatsoever in France, and their recent poll in Colombia wasn't terribly accurate on some results (though not terrible).

I'm not a specialist in analyzing technical details of polls, but it's strange how they have no crosstabs or weighting by socioprofessional category like all other pollsters, but have crosstabs by religion (including Muslim and Jewish), and that they have a weird '55-100' age category (rather than 65+).

Also, their first round numbers are actually not all that favourable to Panzergirl compared to other polls: she's at 21.3% (decimals!) vs 27.8% for Macron, and they have Pécresse quite a bit lower (5.3%) and Zemmour a fair bit higher (12%) (also they find Pécresse and Hidalgo to be more unpopular than Zemmour), which implies that Macron gets very bad transfers in the runoff - indeed, they find that Macron's runoff transfers from Mélenchon and especially Pécresse are much worse than in Ifop/Ipsos' regular tracking polls.

Also, the poll is filled with a bunch of questions (Ukraine-Russia, EU, immigration, Putin, sanctions, atomic bombs etc.), and some of the questions/answers seem to have been run through Babelfish a few dozen times: "êtes-vous en faveur ou contre l'invasion de l'Ukraine pour l'armée de la Fédération Russe ?" or whatever the hell this headache is:



Finally, just looking through the presentation, there are a few basic French grammar mistakes and weird phrasings (pas voté, 'ne votera pas') that makes me think at least some of their release was made with the help of Google Translate. Let's see if they even register this poll with the national polls commission (probably not, they don't speak French).

PS: can we avoid vile grand remplacement nonsense here?