French presidential election, 2022

[Mike88]

A bit of comic relief.

The situation is much worse for the Socialist Party... It seems that there are two François Hollandes in France:

https://twitter.com/bossito/status/1513636426813956103

[Antonio the Sixth]

Data on the election broken down to lower level communes, arrondissements, and constituencies (someone wanted this) is now accessible on the govt data portal.

Is there something that involves links, rather than downloadable files?

And also, I've taken a look at these Data.gouv results and OF COURSE they don't match the results from the Interior Ministry! The discrepancy is minor, like 500 votes or so, but it's enough to send my poor autistic brain into a meltdown.

Never change, France...

[Velasco]

That's misleading all the vote is counted as if it's from Tel Avi but that's only because the French Embassy is located there. The actual voters are scattered around Israel.

I think the tweet said results were from Tel Aviv (the polling place at the embassy, I suppose) and they were waiting reports from consulates in other towns, but anyway.

I take advantage to give my five cents on Mélenchon, not on the character but on his performance and the possible lessons we can learn from this.

Regardless Mélenchon failed to qualify for the second round,  it was by a narrow margin and in the end he got a pretty decent result that surpassed previous expectations. This result, in addition to the combined vote of minor candidates (Jadot, Roussel, Hidalgo...), proves that the left is neither dead nor in excellent shape. I think there are some rays of light and some positive elements, concerning the platform of Mélenchon and the existence of a young base of support. For instance the proposal for a VI Republic that overcomes 'monarchic ' presidentialism is very interesting. In my opinion the left must focus on the advocacy for social justice, fixing the environmental disaster and promoting democracy in all orders of life. More democracy,  "environmental justice"and better wealth redistribution are goals impossible to achieve acting on a national level, so I think the advocacy for a more democratic and multilateral international order is absolutely neccessary (but that's another question and possibly I would disagree with Mélenchon on many issues here). My point is that Mélenchon was succesful identifying some issues at the core of social unrest. The problem is how to articulate a more democratic and 'horizontal' movement beyond cults of personality that is able to bring together a broad base of support. Personally I am not very optimistic about the evolution of politics and society in the near future, because I think we are evolving to less democratic forms of government and more unequal societies. However and from a leftist/progressive point of view, I think we cannot give up the fight for a more just and sustainable socioeconomic order on a livable planet

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I suspect that one explanation of the strength of Zemmour's performance in affluent parts of Paris, which goes above and beyond what we would have expected, is that French Jews voted en masse for him. Will they vote for Le Pen against Macron? No, of course not, they are self-respecting people but they would vote for a disgusting fascist bigot who is one of their own - events have radicalized them...

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

A bit of comic relief.

The situation is much worse for the Socialist Party... It seems that there are two François Hollandes in France:

https://twitter.com/bossito/status/1513636426813956103

I still can’t believe that his approval ratings hit single digits. Not saying he was good, but wow. I don’t think mosquitoes would be under 10% in America.

[All Along The Watchtower]

I suspect that one explanation of the strength of Zemmour's performance in affluent parts of Paris, which goes above and beyond what we would have expected, is that French Jews voted en masse for him. Will they vote for Le Pen against Macron? No, of course not, they are self-respecting people but they would vote for a disgusting fascist bigot who is one of their own - events have radicalized them...

When Jews are being murdered on the streets of France, the most dangerous fascists are not those who defend the rights of minorities, but those who attack them. Zemmour is a bad man, and I think there are few good options in the current French election. But the absolute obliviousness of leftists in this thread to the size and scale of France's Islamism problem is absurd.

Agreed, it is very bad that France can’t and won’t assimilate certain migrants and their descendants. Truly a massive failure and indictment of the country.

[America Needs R'hllor]

On the other hand, Zemmour got more than 40% of the vote in the most 'liberal' place of Israel. It's not surprising at all, given the prevalence of ethnic nationalism and islamophobia in that constituency. Either 'jacobin' or ethnically based, exclusive forms of nationalism are reactionary by definition.  

You're once again reaching to justify your thesis of "liberal Zionists are the real traitors". French Jews are a conservative and religious community that always voted for the LR, and in no way represent how liberal or not liberal Tel Aviv is. It's also one of a handful of polling stations in Israel, and one of the most accessible via public transportation, so I'd assume people from all over the country voted there.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Can Someone explain to me, Zemmmour doing very strongly in Paris XVI, Nevily Sur Seine etc (upwards of 16%!!!!)? The closest resemblance to these electorates seems like Wentworth or North Sydney. These electorates, no matter how anti-labor they are, would never vote for a far-right candidate. Similarly Kensington and Chelsea had very low UKIP vote shares.

I believe Lechausser said in France, the rich are more right wing even on social/cultural issues than working class people


 

[Velasco]

You're once again reaching and strawmaning to justify your thesis of "liberal Zionists are the real traitors".

What?

Thank you for the insights on the demographics of French Israelis, but you are mistakenly assuming I was referring to sime sort of "liberal zionism". On the one hand, at this point it's impossible to me discussing seriously about absurd oxymorons. I don't know examples of liberal democracies with millions of disenfranchised subjects submitted to a regime of domination. On the other hand, my actual conclusion is that zionism is a form of exclusive ethnic nationalism, which is not very compatible with thenotion of liberalism. Another question is that many people claim to be "liberal", like that champion of liberal democracy in Russia called Zhirinovsky  I just said it doesn't surprise me the success of someone like Zemmour in an environment dominated by ethnic nationalism and islamophobia

[Continential]

https://mobile.twitter.com/adb0wen/status/1513607356306923537
wtf lmao

[Zinneke]

https://mobile.twitter.com/adb0wen/status/1513607356306923537?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...
wtf lmao

Like I said early in the thread, the Jeb! Of French politics.


please donate

[adma]

I suspect that one explanation of the strength of Zemmour's performance in affluent parts of Paris, which goes above and beyond what we would have expected, is that French Jews voted en masse for him. Will they vote for Le Pen against Macron? No, of course not, they are self-respecting people but they would vote for a disgusting fascist bigot who is one of their own - events have radicalized them...

Ah, makes sense: a Parisian version of the "pro-Israel" swing to the right (akin to similar patterns in the Jewish parts of Toronto & Montreal, or those patches of deep Trump red in the Orthodox parts of Brooklyn)

[parochial boy]

I suspect that one explanation of the strength of Zemmour's performance in affluent parts of Paris, which goes above and beyond what we would have expected, is that French Jews voted en masse for him. Will they vote for Le Pen against Macron? No, of course not, they are self-respecting people but they would vote for a disgusting fascist bigot who is one of their own - events have radicalized them...

¨

I think there might be a degree to which this is true - certainly on the other side of the socioeconomic divide, Zemmour's score in Sarcelles, which was an old centre of North African Jewish immigration, was quite notably higher than in other otherwise similar banlieues.

Although there are plenty of ultra-bourgeois places without particularly large Jewish populations where Zemmour still did extremely well; and in the Lyon metro, Villeurbanne, which has similar historical associations with Jewish migration doesn't have an at all noticeable Zemmour score - and even if he was strong in the bourgeois-with-a-Jewish-presence 6th arrondissement; his biggest results in the city were apparently voting districts that would normally be associated principally with ultra-catholic bourgeois types. Lyon has a particular issue with right-wing extremist violence though, which probably would make a difference in how people there perceived Zemmour's candidacy

[Mike88]

1st round results in Portugal:

38.5% Macron
18.4% Zemmour
14.4% Mélenchon
10.0% Le Pen
  7.4% Pécresse
  5.6% Jadot
  1.7% Hidalgo
  1.6% Dupont-Aignan
  0.9% Lassalle
  0.7% Roussel
  0.5% Poutou
  0.2% Arthaud

[Libertas Vel Mors]

You're once again reaching and strawmaning to justify your thesis of "liberal Zionists are the real traitors".

What?

Thank you for the insights on the demographics of French Israelis, but you are mistakenly assuming I was referring to sime sort of "liberal zionism". On the one hand, at this point it's impossible to me discussing seriously about absurd oxymorons. I don't know examples of liberal democracies with millions of disenfranchised subjects submitted to a regime of domination. On the other hand, my actual conclusion is that zionism is a form of exclusive ethnic nationalism, which is not very compatible with thenotion of liberalism. Another question is that many people claim to be "liberal", like that champion of liberal democracy in Russia called Zhirinovsky  I just said it doesn't surprise me the success of someone like Zemmour in an environment dominated by ethnic nationalism and islamophobia

No Israeli subjects are disenfranchised. The Palestinian Authority is an independent entity -- this was what was agreed to by the 1991 Oslo Accords and what the Arab World itself demanded. Saying that millions of Israelis are disenfranchised because foreign citizens cannot vote in Israeli elections is like saying that millions of Americans are disenfranchised because Canadians cannot vote in American elections.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Singapore at 60% Macron. I think that's the highest in the world for any expat vote and at just 2% Le Penn certainly the lowest for her. Zemmour distantly third at 10% and Melachon just ahead at 9%

https://twitter.com/KaluzaVladimir/status/1513165479313125379?t=_TI3cwLTDsvxabvc...

[Sir John Johns]

Sarkozy has officially endorsed Macron in the runoff. There are some hints, he is contemplating a formal government coalition between LREM and the part of LR that will follow him.

https://twitter.com/NicolasSarkozy/status/1513788437387644929

The former president has previously refused to endorse anyone in the election, including the official candidate of the party he has (re)founded (and is now busy destroying), Valérie Pécresse. In one of the last meetings of this latter, the name of Sarkozy was booed by LR attendants when mentioned by Yann Wehrling (once the national secretary of the Greens and now apparently in LR after a stint as general secretary of the Modem; is that me of French politics are looking more and more to Latin American politics?).

So far, most of the LR bigwigs have however expressed their intention to vote for Macron in the runoff but without entering in a formal coalition with him. Other LR members on the Sarkozy line are Jean-François Copé, Philippe Juvin, Guillaume Larrivé (deputy from Yonne) and Jean-Luc Moudenc (mayor of Toulouse).

Only Éric Ciotti, Sylvie Goy-Chavent (senator from Ain) and Julien Aubert (RN-lite deputy from Vaucluse) have so far publicly indicated they will not vote for Macron without indicating which ballot they will cast (Ciotti and Goy-Chavent) or cast a blank vote (Aubert). My guess is that they would have been way more comfortable rallying the Zemmour candidacy in the runoff and that they are awaiting the runoff results before burning the ships.

In case of a reelection of Macron, the Sarko-Macronist putative party would have to coexist inside the presidential majority with LREM, the Modem, Édouard Philippe’s Horizons, Agir (constituted by a first wave of LR dissidents; its fusion with Horizons in last January has been vetoed by Macron himself), Territoires de progrès (the totally useless left wing of Macronism constituted by former PS members), En commun (fake ecologists), the more than a century-old Radical Party and two newcomers: the Progressive Federation (constituted by the latest wave of PS sell-outs) and Republican Refoundation, the party Jean-Pierre Chevènement is trying to set up (providing the project of a ‘left-wing sovereignism for pro-EU Thatcherism’ attract enough followers). The plan seems to consolidate Macronism as the sole viable governing political organization in face of the 'extremist', 'populist' and 'unreasonable' options incarnated by Mélenchon and Le Pen/Zemmour.

[Sub Jero]

I wonder what Le Pen thinks of this.
https://mobile.twitter.com/QuiteUninterest/status/1512993829762199556

[Oryxslayer]

In case of a reelection of Macron, the Sarko-Macronist putative party would have to coexist inside the presidential majority with LREM, the Modem, Édouard Philippe’s Horizons, Agir (constituted by a first wave of LR dissidents; its fusion with Horizons in last January has been vetoed by Macron himself), Territoires de progrès (the totally useless left wing of Macronism constituted by former PS members), En commun (fake ecologists), the more than a century-old Radical Party and two newcomers: the Progressive Federation (constituted by the latest wave of PS sell-outs) and Republican Refoundation, the party Jean-Pierre Chevènement is trying to set up (providing the project of a ‘left-wing sovereignism for pro-EU Thatcherism’ attract enough followers). The plan seems to consolidate Macronism as the sole viable governing political organization in face of the 'extremist', 'populist' and 'unreasonable' options incarnated by Mélenchon and Le Pen/Zemmour.

How desirable do you think it will be within LREM to win a legislative majority on they own, without any of the hangers-on or "plus" parties? They did apportion seats in such a fashion last time to win such a majority, but of course lost it because everyone and their ego needs a minor party to prove their relevance. It was also similarly notable at the time that PS did not get a majority on their own in 2012, and only won one through it's pre-election coalition partners.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/AntonJaegermm/status/1513809550943604741?s=20&t=pp1daymd...

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/AntonJaegermm/status/1513809550943604741?s=20&t=pp1daymd...

I mean of course it's a good meme, but the real story here is how in a city as old  - and untouched by the wars - as Paris, the poor and rich neighborhoods remain the same even after many generations.

[DL]

I suspect that one explanation of the strength of Zemmour's performance in affluent parts of Paris, which goes above and beyond what we would have expected, is that French Jews voted en masse for him. Will they vote for Le Pen against Macron? No, of course not, they are self-respecting people but they would vote for a disgusting fascist bigot who is one of their own - events have radicalized them...

Ah, makes sense: a Parisian version of the "pro-Israel" swing to the right (akin to similar patterns in the Jewish parts of Toronto & Montreal, or those patches of deep Trump red in the Orthodox parts of Brooklyn)

I don't want to get too sidetracked into Jewish voting patterns around the world, but i should point out that the "pro-Israel" swing to the right in Jewish parts of Montreal, Toronto, or Orthodox parts of Brooklyn etc...do not exactly fit the "affluence" pattern. The Orthodox Jews who support Trump are generally very low income...and ditto for the ultra orthodox enclaves in Canada that might hypothetically support extreme right candidates. The ultra orthodox tend to have large families and often times no one makes any money since the men just study the Torah all day and live off handouts. Poverty is a big problem. The enclaves where there are a lot of very affluent Jews (i.e. Beverly Hills, the upper east side etc...) won't touch Trump with a ten foot poll. In the 2014 Toronto mayoral election, the affluent Jewish areas of Toronto pretty overwhelmingly preferred John "noblesse oblige" Tory over Doug "rightwing populist" Ford.

[Coldstream]

Sarkozy has officially endorsed Macron in the runoff. There are some hints, he is contemplating a formal government coalition between LREM and the part of LR that will follow him.

https://twitter.com/NicolasSarkozy/status/1513788437387644929

The former president has previously refused to endorse anyone in the election, including the official candidate of the party he has (re)founded (and is now busy destroying), Valérie Pécresse. In one of the last meetings of this latter, the name of Sarkozy was booed by LR attendants when mentioned by Yann Wehrling (once the national secretary of the Greens and now apparently in LR after a stint as general secretary of the Modem; is that me of French politics are looking more and more to Latin American politics?).

So far, most of the LR bigwigs have however expressed their intention to vote for Macron in the runoff but without entering in a formal coalition with him. Other LR members on the Sarkozy line are Jean-François Copé, Philippe Juvin, Guillaume Larrivé (deputy from Yonne) and Jean-Luc Moudenc (mayor of Toulouse).

Only Éric Ciotti, Sylvie Goy-Chavent (senator from Ain) and Julien Aubert (RN-lite deputy from Vaucluse) have so far publicly indicated they will not vote for Macron without indicating which ballot they will cast (Ciotti and Goy-Chavent) or cast a blank vote (Aubert). My guess is that they would have been way more comfortable rallying the Zemmour candidacy in the runoff and that they are awaiting the runoff results before burning the ships.

In case of a reelection of Macron, the Sarko-Macronist putative party would have to coexist inside the presidential majority with LREM, the Modem, Édouard Philippe’s Horizons, Agir (constituted by a first wave of LR dissidents; its fusion with Horizons in last January has been vetoed by Macron himself), Territoires de progrès (the totally useless left wing of Macronism constituted by former PS members), En commun (fake ecologists), the more than a century-old Radical Party and two newcomers: the Progressive Federation (constituted by the latest wave of PS sell-outs) and Republican Refoundation, the party Jean-Pierre Chevènement is trying to set up (providing the project of a ‘left-wing sovereignism for pro-EU Thatcherism’ attract enough followers). The plan seems to consolidate Macronism as the sole viable governing political organization in face of the 'extremist', 'populist' and 'unreasonable' options incarnated by Mélenchon and Le Pen/Zemmour.

I always thought Macron despised Sarkozy, seeing him as a grandstander rather than someone interested in getting things done. Interesting to see how they’d work together if this comes to pass.

Also interesting to see how the candidacies for the 2027 election are decided, will there be a grand “primary of the centre” between representatives from REM, moDem, Phillippe etc? Or will they all fall out and go their separate ways next time, potentially allowing a left wing candidate in to the run off.

[DL]

I wonder if Sarkozy endorsing Macron might do him more harm than good. If the key to winning is to win over Melanchon voters in the second round - surely a Sarkozy endorsement is a huge turn-off to those people...

[Sir Mohamed]

I wonder if Sarkozy endorsing Macron might do him more harm than good. If the key to winning is to win over Melanchon voters in the second round - surely a Sarkozy endorsement is a huge turn-off to those people...

Do these endorsements even mean much? I'm not sure.