French presidential election, 2022

[Antonio the Sixth]

Also, the gender gap if anything seems weaker than usual. Usually there's a pretty big divide between men voting more strongly for "extremes" (FN but also to some extent hard-left parties) and women being more friendly to establishment parties. You see a bit of that in this chart, but not nearly as much as I expected.

[angus]

Oh no, please don't misunderstand. Macron is scum. I don't have much of anything positive to say about him, beyond the fact that at least he's not a Putin apologist. Personally, I don't see any sign that he's "genuinely concerned about people" - all I've seen from him is the contempt and arrogance of someone who grew up all his life thinking he was smarter than everyone else and was Destined for Greatness. Whenever he talks about the least fortunate, his instinct is always focused on the ways in which they're a drag on society, and that they're just too lazy to pull themselves together. You get the idea...

haha.  Indeed.  Thanks for the clarification.  As I said, I am not sure which candidate I'd vote for in this race, but I also have to admit to voting for Clinton in 1992 and again in 1996 so maybe I'm okay with the sort of person you describe.  

I knew I was wading in over my head mentioning Macron in a positive light.  We were in Guadeloupe a couple of years ago, just before the whole world closed down, and I was having a discussion with the guy in the condo below us who often stood out on the balcony smoking.  He was from Nantes and was asking me about where I learned French and that lead to me mentioning that I liked watching Macron's speeches.  Within a couple of minutes I regretted ever having said that.  He used much the same description you used, well en français.

Oh, well.  We moderate heroes gotta stick together, so I'm not going to dump on Macron.  Or Clinton.  Funny thing is, when I took the "issues" quiz on a French website to see which candidate I most aligned with, my top three were Hidalgo, Jadot, and Mélenchon.  I think Macron was somewhere in the middle, and Le Pen and Zemmour were near the bottom.  So in France I'm on the Left, even though in the US I'm in the center, or maybe a bit right of center.  But that's an artifact of the fact that the test was written for a French audience.  Some of the problems asked about are similar to here (L'Ukraine, les impôts, légalisation de cannabis, les migrants, la sécurité des frontières, les dépenses sociales, l'IVG, le coronavirus, les écoles publiques, etc.)  But some were very specific.  One question was "Concernant la durée du mandat présidentiel, pensez-vous qu'il faut revenir au septennat ou conserver le quinquennat?"  I really don't know.  I mean, I might have some opinion if I had thought about it but I haven't really given any thought about the duration.  On those I always selected "passer cette question" which was generally the last option.  I guess that sort of thing confuses their algorithm.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh no, please don't misunderstand. Macron is scum. I don't have much of anything positive to say about him, beyond the fact that at least he's not a Putin apologist. Personally, I don't see any sign that he's "genuinely concerned about people" - all I've seen from him is the contempt and arrogance of someone who grew up all his life thinking he was smarter than everyone else and was Destined for Greatness. Whenever he talks about the least fortunate, his instinct is always focused on the ways in which they're a drag on society, and that they're just too lazy to pull themselves together. You get the idea...

haha.  Indeed.  Thanks for the clarification.  As I said, I am not sure which candidate I'd vote for in this race, but I also have to admit to voting for Clinton in 1992 and again in 1996 so maybe I'm okay with the sort of person you describe. 

I knew I was wading in over my head mentioning Macron in a positive light.  We were in Guadeloupe a couple of years ago, just before the whole world closed down, and I was having a discussion with the guy in the condo below us who often stood out on the balcony smoking.  He was from Nantes and was asking me about where I learned French and that lead to me mentioning that I liked watching Macron's speeches.  Within a couple of minutes I regretted ever having said that.  He used much the same description you used.

Oh, well.  We moderate heroes gotta stick together, so I'm not going to dump on Macron.  Or Clinton. 

Given that only 6% of registered voters in Guadeloupe voted for Macron, I'd say you chose your spot poorly there, yeah.

I'd argue there isn't anything "moderate" about ruthlessly gutting social programs and slashing taxes on the rich, but I know our politics have gotten crazy enough that trying to make that point is probably a lost cause...

[Oryxslayer]

The mainland and territory votes appears to have all now been counted. All that would be left is the overseas. Melenchon won Île-de-France by 2.5k votes over Macron. He is about 500K votes behind Le Pen, who is about 1.5 million votes behind Macron.

[Hash]

Quick and dirty map of headline results at the departmental level:

[Antonio the Sixth]

Anyway, it looks that all the results are in except for the expat vote. So the final verdict of French residents is:

Macron 27,60%
Le Pen 23,41%
Mélenchon 21,95%
Zemmour 7,05%
Pécresse 4,79%
Jadot 4,58%
Lassalle 3,16%
Roussel 2,31%
Dupont-Aignan 2,07%
Hidalgo 1,74%
Poutou 0,77%
Arthaud 0,57%

Turnout 74,86% (Valid turnout 73,22%)

In the end, not quite as close as the final Ipsos projection (the gap between Le Pen and Mélenchon will be about 1.5 points rather than 0.8 points) but still largely on par. And still a stunning performance by Mélenchong, all considered. Macron is slightly above his final polling numbers, Le Pen pretty much on par. Zemmour is a little below and Pécresse just. Collapsed, and will almost certainly lose out on reimbursement of campaign expenditures.

In the end, the expat vote should bring Macron up a bit further, and Le Pen down quite a bit. Mélenchon will also go down but probably not as much as Le Pen. Zemmour should hopefully go down, although I'm honestly not sure - I could see a lot of expats who fit his loathsome profile. Pécresse should go up, but hopefully not enough to cross 5%. Jadot and Hidalgo might go up very slightly as well.

[ilikeverin]

Oh my! It's angus! *hughughug*

[angus]

I'd argue there isn't anything "moderate" about ruthlessly gutting social programs and slashing taxes on the rich, but I know our politics have gotten crazy enough that trying to make that point is probably a lost cause...

Ah, this is why I first came to Dave Leip's forum 18 years ago.  But it's probably also why I stopped visiting.  It can be a headache.

I suspect that we disagree on some level, but you make a good point.  I had similar arguments all through the 90s with my roommate in Boston regarding Clinton.  "What is 'moderate' about dragging the party rightward, and the 'welfare to work' program which is denying social benefits to children?"  I do appreciate the question.  

I think the idea is to try to come to a compromise that avoids class conflict.  The obvious drawback is that some unfortunate individuals do fall through the cracks and are deprived of the government aid that they need.  The solution to that problem is better screening.  I cannot adequately describe the specifics in France, but in the US the problem was abuse of the welfare system set up in the late 1960s in Johnson's Great Society.  It was a brilliant idea and phenomenally popular on the left and in the center.  But it became overly top-heavy, like Rome circa AD400.  It was a house of twigs just waiting for a strong wind to blow and knock it down.  Clinton wanted to prune it back in order to achieve a balanced budget.  

I have the impression that it was similar in France in 2017.  Macron advocated in favor of the free market and reducing the public-finances deficit at a time when the French deficit was near the allowed EU maximum.  But I also know that there are details (the El Khomri law, rebalancing of the trade deficit with Germany, fuel surcharges, etc.) with which I am not so intimately associated so I generally tend not to argue in favor of or against his legislative agenda.  

I do appreciate your unfiltered comments, though.  It motivates me to try to learn more about the specifics of his economic agenda.

[Oryxslayer]

In the end, the expat vote should bring Macron up a bit further, and Le Pen down quite a bit. Mélenchon will also go down but probably not as much as Le Pen. Zemmour should hopefully go down, although I'm honestly not sure - I could see a lot of expats who fit his loathsome profile. Pécresse should go up, but hopefully not enough to cross 5%. Jadot and Hidalgo might go up very slightly as well.

Miami is perpetually disappointing, though only 10k voters.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'd argue there isn't anything "moderate" about ruthlessly gutting social programs and slashing taxes on the rich, but I know our politics have gotten crazy enough that trying to make that point is probably a lost cause...

Ah, this is why I first came to Dave Leip's forum 18 years ago.  But it's probably also why I stopped visiting.  It can be a headache.

I suspect that we disagree on some level, but you make a good point.  I had similar arguments all through the 90s with my roommate in Boston regarding Clinton.  "What is 'moderate' about dragging the party rightward, and the 'welfare to work' program which is denying social benefits to children?"  I do appreciate the question. 

I think the idea is to try to come to a compromise that avoids class conflict.  The obvious drawback is that some unfortunate individuals do fall through the cracks and are deprived of the government aid that they need.  The solution to that problem is better screening.  I cannot adequately describe the specifics in France, but in the US the problem was abuse of the welfare system set up in the late 1960s in Johnson's Great Society.  It was a brilliant idea and phenomenally popular on the left and in the center.  But it became overly top-heavy, like Rome circa AD400.  It was a house of twigs just waiting for a strong wind to blow and knock it down.  Clinton wanted to prune it back in order to achieve a balanced budget. 

I have the impression that it was similar in France in 2017.  Macron advocated in favor of the free market and reducing the public-finances deficit at a time when the French deficit was near the allowed EU maximum.  But I also know that there are details (the El Khomri law, rebalancing of the trade deficit with Germany, fuel surcharges, etc.) with which I am not so intimately associated so I generally tend not to argue in favor of or against his legislative agenda. 

I do appreciate your unfiltered comments, though.  It motivates me to try to learn more about the specifics of his economic agenda.

I appreciate your thoughtful response as well. I fundamentally disagree with the idea that the scaling-back of the welfare state has been a way to avoid class conflict - I'd argue the exact opposite, in fact, that it has created a rift in Western societies that risks pulling them apart at the seams (and is the fundamental reason why candidates like Le Pen have a realistic chance to win). I'd be happy to elaborate on that more, but probably not at 4:30 in the morning, and probably not in this thread.

Anyway, glad to hear from you!

[Logical]

In the end, the expat vote should bring Macron up a bit further, and Le Pen down quite a bit. Mélenchon will also go down but probably not as much as Le Pen. Zemmour should hopefully go down, although I'm honestly not sure - I could see a lot of expats who fit his loathsome profile. Pécresse should go up, but hopefully not enough to cross 5%. Jadot and Hidalgo might go up very slightly as well.

Miami is perpetually disappointing, though only 10k voters.

Zemmour doing well in Tel Aviv. Probably his best result anywhere in the world.
https://twitter.com/julienbahloul/status/1513246914912919556

[Antonio the Sixth]

In the end, the expat vote should bring Macron up a bit further, and Le Pen down quite a bit. Mélenchon will also go down but probably not as much as Le Pen. Zemmour should hopefully go down, although I'm honestly not sure - I could see a lot of expats who fit his loathsome profile. Pécresse should go up, but hopefully not enough to cross 5%. Jadot and Hidalgo might go up very slightly as well.

Miami is perpetually disappointing, though only 10k voters.

Zemmour doing well in Tel Aviv. Probably his best result anywhere in the world.
https://twitter.com/julienbahloul/status/1513246914912919556

Absolutely disheartening. Apparently antisemitism is a-okay now as long as you Own Teh Moslems

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Compared to 2017, the pattern that jumps out at you most is that Macron made huge gains with older voters: double-digit gains with the "retired" and "70 or older" categories. (The only age group he had losses with was 25-34, but then he did really poorly with 18-24 in 2017 and those people are now 5 years older, so it kind of makes sense. The new youngest voters like him more, though still not a lot.)

Le Pen's strongest gain age category relative to 2017 was indeed 18-24. Zemmour's pattern is bizarre: normally Western European far-right parties are weak among the old and young, and strongest among middle-aged voters (Le Pen '17 being a great example of this; Le Pen '22 still kind of fits the pattern but she has an extra bump with the youngest voters). Zemmour is strong among the very old and very young, but nonexistent with middle-aged voters.

Melenchon's gains, in contrast to Macron, are indeed concentrated among the young (double-digit gain with 25-34), though much like Macron he doesn't really decline with any age category.

Macron is obviously very anti-worker.

[adma]

Is there anyplace to get results by constituency?  (That is, a bit more fine-detailed than by departement, yet not as unwieldy to parse as by commune)

[Mopsus]

Why is the west of France so pro-Macron?

[Logical]

Is there anyplace to get results by constituency?  (That is, a bit more fine-detailed than by departement, yet not as unwieldy to parse as by commune)

I don't think those exist. Best website I found is this.
https://resultats-elections.lavoixdunord.fr/presidentielle/2022/?p=compare
It has 2017 results for comparison.

[H. Ross Peron]

Why is the west of France so pro-Macron?

Hash and Antonio can certainly explain in more detail but western France has a Europhilic, Christian Democratic center-right political tradition that made it amenable to a candidate like Macron.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why is the west of France so pro-Macron?

Hash and Antonio can certainly explain in more detail but western France has a Europhilic, Christian Democratic center-right political tradition that made it amenable to a candidate like Macron.

I decided to see if this was in much effect in past elections, so I looked at the 1974 presidential election. Even as Mitterand led by 11 points, d'Estaing won handily in the northwestern half of the country.

[adma]

Is there anyplace to get results by constituency?  (That is, a bit more fine-detailed than by departement, yet not as unwieldy to parse as by commune)

I don't think those exist. Best website I found is this.
https://resultats-elections.lavoixdunord.fr/presidentielle/2022/?p=compare
It has 2017 results for comparison.

They'll *probably* happen eventually, in connection w/the Legislatifs.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Zemmour doing well in Tel Aviv. Probably his best result anywhere in the world.
https://twitter.com/julienbahloul/status/1513246914912919556

Absolutely disheartening. Apparently antisemitism is a-okay now as long as you Own Teh Moslems

My boyfriend's family are French Jews, and I think from these results they represent the community surprisingly (depressingly) well. They think Le Pen is antisemitic because of her dad and won't vote for her (though we'll see what happens in the 2nd round). But Zemmour is a Jew that hates Muslims, Just Like Them, ans we're going to ignore that he's literally endorsed by Le Pen the father and said horribly antisemitic things (fake news media etc). So that's the gist of it.

I'm actually surprised Macron did so well- it's a very religious and conservative community, and it doesn't help that it's been struck by several high profile antisemitic Islamic terrorist attacks in France.

[America Needs R'hllor]

It is patently clear from both his surge in the polls and the pattern of his support - quite different to last time in some seriously suggestive ways! - that Melenchon benefited from a huge wave of tactical voting and that the people who voted for other Left candidates were people who think the man is too much of an [expletive deleted] to cast their vote for. There is always a hard limit on tactical voting potential, and I tend to think that Melenchon hit his. In any case, he's a bad man and you shouldn't feel sorry for him, even if it would (obviously) be preferable if he had reached the second round instead of Le Pen.

Exactly.

Speaking for myself, and in response to some Professional Leftists on here who make it their duty to remonstrate to other people about their voting choices (hilariously, the very same people who whined about "voter shaming" in the 2020 US election), let me be very clear. I didn't vote for Mélenchon because I don't want him to win. I don't want him as my president. I'm sorry if that upsets your high-minded leftist sensibilities sitting from halfway across the world, but in my case there is nothing "tactical" about voting for Mélenchon. I've already made it clear that I'd vote for Macron in a Macron-Mélenchon runoff, and if you think that makes me a neolib, be my guest, but don't act like all of us Jadot/Hidalgo/Roussel voters are just lost sheep from the Mélenchon bandwagon. We never were part of this bandwagon and we never will be.

Hear, hear. The French left desperately needs him to go away- him and his personality cult that has a hard floor of voters sucks all the oxygen from the room and handicaps any good left wing candidate from rising.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

For comparison:

2017 (light blue = François Fillon)	2022

[Red Velvet]

Not sure how reliable is this but it was the only info I could find for LatAm

https://mobile.twitter.com/sofiauduvard/status/1513180675423318017

[omar04]

https://twitter.com/SocioTonyo/status/1513243847169658881

That poll showing high support among the young for Le Pen was an outlier

[Pericles]

Damn Melenchon is 1% away from getting into the runoff, that must hurt for him.