French presidential election, 2022

[MaxQue]

All that's left to report is Paris I and XX, Marseille XIII arrondissements, Villeurbanne and the overseas vote. Good for Meluche, but not good enough -- Ipsos likely underestimated the Le Pen-Méluche margin by 1 point.

Through, it seems the Paris and Marseille aren't added at all until all of it reports.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

All arrondissemonts are in except for the 1st and the 20th.
The 20th should be pretty solidly pro-Melenchon.

Man, you guys are really into the fine-grained details.  Now I remember that about this place.  Real politics junkies.  Well, I've been to the first but not the 20th arrondissement.  But I do know that Jim Morrison of The Doors is buried there, so I guess that counts for something.

Cheers, Phil.  

No prob man! Best of luck and joy in your life!

[angus]

Same to you, Phil.  By the way, I have to ask a stupid question.  What is PR?  It usually means Puerto Rico, but I can tell it's not the puertorriqueño shape.  The shape looks vaguely like the eastern parts of the pre-1918 German Reich, and a bit of the Kalliningrad oblast tacked onto it.  Is it "Pomerania"?  

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Same to you, Phil.  By the way, I have to ask a stupid question.  What is PR?  It usually means Puerto Rico, but I can tell it's not the puertorriqueño shape.  The shape looks vaguely like the eastern parts of the former Third Reich, and a bit of the Kalliningrad oblast tacked onto it.  Is it "Pomerania"? 

Where are you seeing this 'PR'? You might be seeing the outline of Paris.

[New England Fire Squad]

Same to you, Phil.  By the way, I have to ask a stupid question.  What is PR?  It usually means Puerto Rico, but I can tell it's not the puertorriqueño shape.  The shape looks vaguely like the eastern parts of the pre-1918 German Reich, and a bit of the Kalliningrad oblast tacked onto it.  Is it "Pomerania"?  

It's Prussia

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Same to you, Phil.  By the way, I have to ask a stupid question.  What is PR?  It usually means Puerto Rico, but I can tell it's not the puertorriqueño shape.  The shape looks vaguely like the eastern parts of the pre-1918 German Reich, and a bit of the Kalliningrad oblast tacked onto it.  Is it "Pomerania"?  

It's Prussia

Aaaaah. I see. Yes, this man is right.

[Antonio the Sixth]

It is patently clear from both his surge in the polls and the pattern of his support - quite different to last time in some seriously suggestive ways! - that Melenchon benefited from a huge wave of tactical voting and that the people who voted for other Left candidates were people who think the man is too much of an [expletive deleted] to cast their vote for. There is always a hard limit on tactical voting potential, and I tend to think that Melenchon hit his. In any case, he's a bad man and you shouldn't feel sorry for him, even if it would (obviously) be preferable if he had reached the second round instead of Le Pen.

Exactly.

Speaking for myself, and in response to some Professional Leftists on here who make it their duty to remonstrate to other people about their voting choices (hilariously, the very same people who whined about "voter shaming" in the 2020 US election), let me be very clear. I didn't vote for Mélenchon because I don't want him to win. I don't want him as my president. I'm sorry if that upsets your high-minded leftist sensibilities sitting from halfway across the world, but in my case there is nothing "tactical" about voting for Mélenchon. I've already made it clear that I'd vote for Macron in a Macron-Mélenchon runoff, and if you think that makes me a neolib, be my guest, but don't act like all of us Jadot/Hidalgo/Roussel voters are just lost sheep from the Mélenchon bandwagon. We never were part of this bandwagon and we never will be.

[angus]

Same to you, Phil.  By the way, I have to ask a stupid question.  What is PR?  It usually means Puerto Rico, but I can tell it's not the puertorriqueño shape.  The shape looks vaguely like the eastern parts of the pre-1918 German Reich, and a bit of the Kalliningrad oblast tacked onto it.  Is it "Pomerania"?  

It's Prussia

Aaaaah. I see. Yes, this man is right.

Ah, Prussia.  Of course.  Duh!  The question was answered in the time it took me to compose this response.  



Thank you New England Fire Squad.

[Hash]

As I've been doing since 2017, here are quick graphs based on Ipsos' analysis of the electorates. As usual, interpret this as you would any poll crosstabs, particularly with the smallest candidates.

Gender:


Age:


CSP:


Monthly income:


Self-perceived social class:


Diploma:


Employment status:


Satisfaction with life:


Religion/religiosity:


2017 vote:


2019 EP vote:


I hope to make similar graphs based on Ifop's numbers once they come out, as well as my usual maps at the constituency level.

[angus]

I've already made it clear that I'd vote for Macron in a Macron-Mélenchon runoff, and if you think that makes me a neolib, be my guest, but don't act like all of us Jadot/Hidalgo/Roussel voters are just lost sheep from the Mélenchon bandwagon. We never were part of this bandwagon and we never will be.

I actually like listening to Macron's speeches.  Maybe I'm the only one.  He's very old-fashioned.  He even uses the simple past tense.  I remember at Samuel Paty's funeral he said "Pourquoi fut-il tué?" I guess that makes him easy to understand for non-native speakers.  Beyond that, though, he seems genuinely concerned about people.  I know that many leftist francophones will rant about his neoliberalism, and I know that those on the right call him a sell-out.  I guess that goes with the territory for a moderate hero.  I'm not sure who I'd vote for were I a citizen of France, but I think they could do worse than Macron.  

I don't know as much about Mélenchon, but every time I see him on the news it is about something offensive.  His demeanor is not unlike Donald Trump.  He insults people, made public mockery of a reporter whose Languedoc accent was too pronounced for his tastes, freely exaggerates by casting about terms like "fasciste" and "espion".  That's not the language of statecraft.  Regardless of his politics he seems dangerously unhinged at times.  I'd probably go with Hidalgo as well if my priorities were in the policies she emphasizes on her official website.  I'm not necessarily saying that they do, but if they did, I think she is a clearer thinker than Mélenchon, and easier to trust and to predict.  

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

As I've been doing since 2017, here are quick graphs based on Ipsos' analysis of the electorates. As usual, interpret this as you would any poll crosstabs, particularly with the smallest candidates.
[graphs]

Good graphs. Thank you for your hard work.
The single most striking thing here, imo, is Zemmour doing twice as well among men vs women. What could be causing that?

[Skill and Chance]

As I've been doing since 2017, here are quick graphs based on Ipsos' analysis of the electorates. As usual, interpret this as you would any poll crosstabs, particularly with the smallest candidates.
[graphs]

Good graphs. Thank you for your hard work.
The single most striking thing here, imo, is Zemmour doing twice as well among men vs women. What could be causing that?

Has he expressed very sexist views?  Given the rest of his platform, I wouldn't be suprised?

[Skill and Chance]

As I've been doing since 2017, here are quick graphs based on Ipsos' analysis of the electorates. As usual, interpret this as you would any poll crosstabs, particularly with the smallest candidates.

Gender:


Age:


CSP:


Monthly income:


Self-perceived social class:


Diploma:


Employment status:


Satisfaction with life:


Religion/religiosity:


2017 vote:


2019 EP vote:


I hope to make similar graphs based on Ifop's numbers once they come out, as well as my usual maps at the constituency level.

Interesting that Macron simultaneously does best with the advanced degrees, retirees, and the most religious.  Not every day that you see that!

[Storr]

Americans tweeting dumb things: https://twitter.com/JDVance1/status/1513241867726512133?s=20&t=JvnhmgLJcmcFX...

[buritobr]

Interesting charts.

Mélenchon performed well in the group of low income but also in the group of high education. Like many leftists nowadays.

[Vosem]

Compared to 2017, no income category swung against Macron. (Among households making less than 1,250 euro a month, he held steady -- among households making more than that, he made gains).

Going by professional categories, managers, "intermediate occupations", and blue-collar workers (!) all recorded a small swing towards Macron. White-collar workers recorded a small swing against. Retirees swung massively in his favor, from 26% to 38%.

Every educational category swung at least a bit towards Macron.

"Self-perceived social class" was not asked in 2017, or at least it isn't in the data I'm looking at.

Regardless, it doesn't seem like the results are easily characterized as a swing of poor or working-class people away from Macron.

~~

Melenchon recorded a small positive swing in every income category.

Melenchon recorded tiny swings against in "blue-collar worker" (going from 24% to 23%) and "retired" (going from 12% to 11%). This was balanced by small swings towards him among white-collar workers and intermediate professions, and a large swing towards him among managers/professionals (with whom he went from 19% to 25%).

The educational categories seem kind of schizo, with Melenchon getting a huge swing towards him among bac+3 and just baccalaureate voters, but swings against with bac+2 and less than baccalaureate voters.

It doesn't seem like his gains are very easily characterized as being skewed to poor or working-class people either.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Very american esque, educational polarization pattern.

[Skill and Chance]

Very american esque, educational polarization pattern.

While these are always dangerous comparisons, it seems like Macron succeeded in building the coalition Hillary Clinton (not Biden!) was expecting to win with.

[Vosem]

Compared to 2017, the pattern that jumps out at you most is that Macron made huge gains with older voters: double-digit gains with the "retired" and "70 or older" categories. (The only age group he had losses with was 25-34, but then he did really poorly with 18-24 in 2017 and those people are now 5 years older, so it kind of makes sense. The new youngest voters like him more, though still not a lot.)

Le Pen's strongest gain age category relative to 2017 was indeed 18-24. Zemmour's pattern is bizarre: normally Western European far-right parties are weak among the old and young, and strongest among middle-aged voters (Le Pen '17 being a great example of this; Le Pen '22 still kind of fits the pattern but she has an extra bump with the youngest voters). Zemmour is strong among the very old and very young, but nonexistent with middle-aged voters.

Melenchon's gains, in contrast to Macron, are indeed concentrated among the young (double-digit gain with 25-34), though much like Macron he doesn't really decline with any age category.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Very american esque, educational polarization pattern.

While these are always dangerous comparisons, it seems like Macron succeeded in building the coalition Hillary Clinton (not Biden!) was expecting to win with.

This is true.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

As I've been doing since 2017, here are quick graphs based on Ipsos' analysis of the electorates. As usual, interpret this as you would any poll crosstabs, particularly with the smallest candidates.
[graphs]

Good graphs. Thank you for your hard work.
The single most striking thing here, imo, is Zemmour doing twice as well among men vs women. What could be causing that?

Has he expressed very sexist views?  Given the rest of his platform, I wouldn't be suprised?

France long has had a largely class-based voting pattern. I'd be surprised if sexist views of any kind really could create this kind of gender gap, since it's even more nonsensical than usual to think of women as a cohesive voter block.

[MaxQue]

As I've been doing since 2017, here are quick graphs based on Ipsos' analysis of the electorates. As usual, interpret this as you would any poll crosstabs, particularly with the smallest candidates.
[graphs]

Good graphs. Thank you for your hard work.
The single most striking thing here, imo, is Zemmour doing twice as well among men vs women. What could be causing that?

Has he expressed very sexist views?  Given the rest of his platform, I wouldn't be suprised?

France long has had a largely class-based voting pattern. I'd be surprised if sexist views of any kind really could create this kind of gender gap, since it's even more nonsensical than usual to think of women as a cohesive voter block.

He has been accused of sexual harassment by 8 different women.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

As I've been doing since 2017, here are quick graphs based on Ipsos' analysis of the electorates. As usual, interpret this as you would any poll crosstabs, particularly with the smallest candidates.
[graphs]

Good graphs. Thank you for your hard work.
The single most striking thing here, imo, is Zemmour doing twice as well among men vs women. What could be causing that?

Has he expressed very sexist views?  Given the rest of his platform, I wouldn't be suprised?

France long has had a largely class-based voting pattern. I'd be surprised if sexist views of any kind really could create this kind of gender gap, since it's even more nonsensical than usual to think of women as a cohesive voter block.

He has been accused of sexual harassment by 8 different women.

Oh, dear.
That might explain it then.

[adma]

I always monitor the commune of Y (Somme) in these elections...

26 Le Pen, 12 Melenchon, 6 Zemmour, 4 Macron 4 Lassalle, 2 Pecresse, 1 Arthaud, 1 NDA

What sort of commune would vote for Le Pen?

The commune with one letter

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Y,_Somme

[Antonio the Sixth]

I've already made it clear that I'd vote for Macron in a Macron-Mélenchon runoff, and if you think that makes me a neolib, be my guest, but don't act like all of us Jadot/Hidalgo/Roussel voters are just lost sheep from the Mélenchon bandwagon. We never were part of this bandwagon and we never will be.

I actually like listening to Macron's speeches.  Maybe I'm the only one.  He's very old-fashioned.  He even uses the simple past tense.  I remember at Samuel Paty's funeral he said "Pourquoi fut-il tué?" I guess that makes him easy to understand for non-native speakers.  Beyond that, though, he seems genuinely concerned about people.  I know that many leftist francophones will rant about his neoliberalism, and I know that those on the right call him a sell-out.  I guess that goes with the territory for a moderate hero.  I'm not sure who I'd vote for were I a citizen of France, but I think they could do worse than Macron. 

I don't know as much about Mélenchon, but every time I see him on the news it is about something offensive.  His demeanor is not unlike Donald Trump.  He insults people, made public mockery of a reporter whose Languedoc accent was too pronounced for his tastes, freely exaggerates by casting about terms like "fasciste" and "espion".  That's not the language of statecraft.  Regardless of his politics he seems dangerously unhinged at times.  I'd probably go with Hidalgo as well if my priorities were in the policies she emphasizes on her official website.  I'm not necessarily saying that they do, but if they did, I think she is a clearer thinker than Mélenchon, and easier to trust and to predict.

Oh no, please don't misunderstand. Macron is scum. I don't have much of anything positive to say about him, beyond the fact that at least he's not a Putin apologist. Personally, I don't see any sign that he's "genuinely concerned about people" - all I've seen from him is the contempt and arrogance of someone who grew up all his life thinking he was smarter than everyone else and was Destined for Greatness. Whenever he talks about the least fortunate, his instinct is always focused on the ways in which they're a drag on society, and that they're just too lazy to pull themselves together. You get the idea. Even above and beyond his policies (which have been a disaster on almost every level), he comes across as one of the most personally unpleasant Presidents we've ever had (probably the only one who can dispute him that title is Sarko, but even he might have a bit more charm to his boorishness).

As for Mélenchon, he is indeed himself an arrogant asshole. But since you mentioned speeches in particular, I have to give the man credit: Mélenchon is a superb orator. As I said, I strongly dislike the guy but even I was getting emotional listening to him. Say what you want about the guy, he really has a way to sell what it means to be on the side of the downtrodden. Whoever picks up the standard of the French left after him better take a note from that, at least.