French presidential election, 2022

[Sir John Johns]

Back in 2017, at this stage of the campaign (one week before the deadline), Asselineau had 524 validated sponsorships (hence already certain to be on the ballot) and Poutou 245. The candidate of the NPA was then considered as quite unlikely to participate to the election (and so was Lassalle who had only 289 validated sponsorships) but he managed to present 328 additional nominations in the last week and Lassalle 419 (!). The bulk of Asselineau’s sponsorships (420 out of 587) came in a single day. At last count, Asselineau is at 247, Poutou at 243, Kazib at 130 and Taubira at 128, so a surprise is still possible (can be certainly ruled out for Kazib and Taubira). Olivier Besancenot, the candidate of the LCR (the predecessor of the NPA) in 2002 and in 2007, is relatively hopeful a he said on LCI two days ago they are ‘still in the race but this will be very close’.

Bayrou has announced he will give his signature to Marine Le Pen explaining ‘this is to save democracy but my signature doesn’t constitute an endorsement’. Awesome, five years ago, these people were calling to a ‘republican front’ against Le Pen and now they are coming to salvage her candidacy. His ‘bank of nominations’ has now collected some 365 signatures, enough to get Le Pen and Zemmour on the ballot and, theoretically, to help a few minor candidates in the finishing straight even if the initial goal of the ‘bank’ was to ensure candidates over 10% in the polls being on the ballot (Jesus, what a joke of a system).

[Continential]

Is there any talk of abolishing the sponsorship system?

[Sir John Johns]

Yes, the proposal to reform or abolish the sponsorship system is re-emerging in public debate every five years, at each presidential campaign as there is always a major candidate (usually a Le Pen) complaining about struggling getting the 500 required sponsorship and yelling breach of democracy. This has always came to nothing. In 2007, a commission headed by former PM Édouard Balladur on the modernization of institutions suggested replacing the 500 sponsorships system by a selection of candidates by a 100,000 elected officials body but this didn’t translated in the resulting constitutional reform. In 2012, a commission headed by former PM Lionel Jospin also suggested the end of the 500 sponsorships system and its replacement by a requirement of 150,000 signatures of French citizens to be on the ballot; the resulting reform was considerably water-downed by the Hollande administration and the only important changes were the publication on a regular basis of the validated sponsorships (previously the Constitutional Council only announced after the deadline had expired who had the 500 sponsorships) and the end of the anonymity of the sponsorships (instead of the previous publication of 500 names chosen by lot for each candidate).

The sponsorships system has been intended to prevent ‘fanciful’ candidacies (people running for self-promotion, religious cults, extremists and weirdos). A key point is that candidates’ campaigns are partly public funded, the printing of political propaganda and displaying of electoral posters partly assumed by the state and candidates have access to TV and radio medias with an equal airtime being required for each candidates during the official campaign. So, you need some sort of filter otherwise this will turn into a complete mess financed by public funds.

You may believe it didn’t work with the likes of Louis Ducatel and Jacques Cheminade still managing to get on the ballot and a number of candidates usually over 10 (the number of required sponsorships was raised from 100 to 500 in 1976 precisely because there were 12 candidates in 1974 in spite of an unplanned and rushed campaign triggered by the death of Pompidou) but when you see the complete nutcases that are running in the European elections you are relieved there is some sort of filter. For example, I’m glad there has been no presidential candidacy of Benoît Frappé whose only proposal, when running in Euros in 1994 and 1999, was ‘yogic flying’.

Ad of Natural Law Party for the 1994 European elections (starts as a normal and boring political ad until he began mentioning the permanent group of 7,000 experts of yogic flying and the apparition of people jumping on mattresses in the unlikeliest way possible).


None of the proposals suggested (complete anonymity for sponsors, a mix of signatures of elected officials and simple citizens or a system totally based on citizens’ signatures) are totally convincing to fix the issue that is stemming from the decadence of traditional structured parties, the decorrelation between national and local elections (see the last regional/departmental when LREM and the RN failed to build a strong local basis to the benefit of parties like the PS and LR well-entrenched at local level but declining at national level), a certain de-ideologization of mayors (who prefer dedicating their time on local issues rather than intervening in the national debate) and emergence of new political actors who directly run for president instead of going through the traditional cursus honorum (having held elected offices at both local and national levels before making a presidential bid) and who built their parties from scratch during the campaign (see Macron and now Zemmour).

[Sir John Johns]

https://twitter.com/chevenement/status/1497884468442501120

I have decided to provide a republican endorsement to Emmanuel Macron in view of the upcoming presidential election. He’s the only one in my view able, through a second five-year term, to rebuild the country and to give back a meaning to politics.

If someone had told me in 2002 that, twenty years later, Chevènement would have endorsed in the presidential first round the candidate supported by both Alain Madelin and Robert Hue in the 2017 presidential first round because he’s the only one able to ‘give back a meaning in politics’...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/chevenement/status/1497884468442501120

I have decided to provide a republican endorsement to Emmanuel Macron in view of the upcoming presidential election. He’s the only one in my view able, through a second five-year term, to rebuild the country and to give back a meaning to politics.

If someone had told me in 2002 that, twenty years later, Chevènement would have endorsed in the presidential first round the candidate supported by both Alain Madelin and Robert Hue in the 2017 presidential first round because he’s the only one able to ‘give back a meaning in politics’...

How big is this news?

[Zinneke]

I hope it silences the crypto-fascistic love affair with the "I would have voted Chevènement in 2002" line of argumentation.

Otherwise insignificant.

[Coldstream]

I’m pretty sure Macron said he voted for Chevenement in 2002, so I guess it’s not that shocking.

[Helsinkian]

A bit unrelated, but does anyone know what weapon Macron is holding here?

https://twitter.com/edwest/status/1497512730965721094

[Pilchard]

A bit unrelated, but does anyone know what weapon Macron is holding here?

https://twitter.com/edwest/status/1497512730965721094

It looks like some sort of anti-drone RF signal jammer - basically a powerful directional antenna that will mess with a drone's ability to communicate with its base station - rather than an actual gun.

[Zinneke]

Zemmour is tanking in the polls to the benefit of Le Pen it seems. Zemmour came out this morning maintaining his view that Putin was an ''authoritarian democrat'' he admires and said he would refuse to arm Ukraine and refuse to take in Ukrainian refugees. These are simply unpopular with even sections of the (white nationalist) far right and certainly some sections of the social conservative types he was attracting with his faux intellect act.

Le Pen is playing a better mediatic game. Talking about national unity, about why she refused to sign the document in Madrid with other far right parties condemning Putin (she claims she didn't want to undermine Macron while he was negotiating with Putin) and an overall better excuse for close Russian ties, but ultimately apologetic for her stance on Russia. Le Pen overall is actually running an excellent tactical campaign, talking about French people's buying power, expanding her reach, avoiding the landmines including this episode effectively.

She will still lose by default because of her family name and the Russo-Ukraine conflict, as well as Macron being the most credible President in what feels like ages, but she has much better political instinct than in 2017.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Zemmour is tanking in the polls to the benefit of Le Pen it seems. Zemmour came out this morning maintaining his view that Putin was an ''authoritarian democrat'' he admires and said he would refuse to arm Ukraine and refuse to take in Ukrainian refugees. These are simply unpopular with even sections of the (white nationalist) far right and certainly some sections of the social conservative types he was attracting with his faux intellect act.

Le Pen is playing a better mediatic game. Talking about national unity, about why she refused to sign the document in Madrid with other far right parties condemning Putin (she claims she didn't want to undermine Macron while he was negotiating with Putin) and an overall better excuse for close Russian ties, but ultimately apologetic for her stance on Russia. Le Pen overall is actually running an excellent tactical campaign, talking about French people's buying power, expanding her reach, avoiding the landmines including this episode effectively.

She will still lose by default because of her family name and the Russo-Ukraine conflict, as well as Macron being the most credible President in what feels like ages, but she has much better political instinct than in 2017.

Why is the Le-pen name toxic, even among portions of the far-right that would normally be supportive of her policies ?

[CumbrianLefty]

Loathsome pro-Putin shills throughout Europe tanking in popularity is one genuine silver lining of the recent awful events.

[America Needs R'hllor]

A bit unrelated, but does anyone know what weapon Macron is holding here?

https://twitter.com/edwest/status/1497512730965721094

Not gonna lie, my first reaction to this was "why the hell is Spiderman talking about Macron"

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Loathsome pro-Putin shills throughout Europe tanking in popularity is one genuine silver lining of the recent awful events.

Also great at exposing the dividing line between those actually in putin's pockets, useful idiots and genuine leftists/peace activists.

[SInNYC]

I understand that sponsorship is irrevocable, even if your candidate drops out. Given that, it seems to me that its better to privately promise your sponsorship to a candidate but not make it public until the last minute, for 'trustable' sponsors at least. I'm wondering if this ever happens and/or how often?

[Zinneke]

Zemmour is tanking in the polls to the benefit of Le Pen it seems. Zemmour came out this morning maintaining his view that Putin was an ''authoritarian democrat'' he admires and said he would refuse to arm Ukraine and refuse to take in Ukrainian refugees. These are simply unpopular with even sections of the (white nationalist) far right and certainly some sections of the social conservative types he was attracting with his faux intellect act.

Le Pen is playing a better mediatic game. Talking about national unity, about why she refused to sign the document in Madrid with other far right parties condemning Putin (she claims she didn't want to undermine Macron while he was negotiating with Putin) and an overall better excuse for close Russian ties, but ultimately apologetic for her stance on Russia. Le Pen overall is actually running an excellent tactical campaign, talking about French people's buying power, expanding her reach, avoiding the landmines including this episode effectively.

She will still lose by default because of her family name and the Russo-Ukraine conflict, as well as Macron being the most credible President in what feels like ages, but she has much better political instinct than in 2017.

Why is the Le-pen name toxic, even among portions of the far-right that would normally be supportive of her policies ?

Because branding is still a big part of politics, and Panzergirl will always be seen as her father's daughter to some. The whole idea of someone from Le Pen family as president is basically rejecting the more fundamental values of the 5th Republic because of the original creator.

 I think that she has done enough for historians in years to come to consider RN and herself to be different to their predecessors. She has fundamentally transformed them and for that she deserves a modicum of credit. I don't have anything against the woman for example, just her fascist goons she likely makes excuses for because she has grown up alongside them, as her clan, the same way the PS was Valls's clan.

[Coldstream]

Zemmour, Le Pen & Dupont-Aignan all made it on to the ballot today.

For the rest, with three days to go:

Poutou needs 158
Asselineau needs 237
Taubira needs 319

[Coldstream]

Taubira drops out:

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220302-christiane-taubira-withdraws-from-french-presidential-race

[Canis]

Taubira drops out:

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220302-christiane-taubira-withdraws-from-french-presidential-race

Wonder if she'll endorse and who it would be. Hidalgo should also drop out and probably Rousell. The left needs to consolidate behind Jadot or Melenchon Their the only two with a shot at making the runoff.

[Oryxslayer]

Taubira drops out:

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220302-christiane-taubira-withdraws-from-french-presidential-race

Wonder if she'll endorse and who it would be. Hidalgo should also drop out and probably Rousell. The left needs to consolidate behind Jadot or Melenchon Their the only two with a shot at making the runoff.

At this point the 'left' doesn't care about the runoff and certainly won't consolidate when the animosity is high. Taubira only dropped out cause of endorsements. Any belief that Macron could be defeated from that side is long out the window - and the other side is on very, very, thin ice.

[PSOL]

It’s obviously going to be Jadot she endorses here.

[Continential]

I can't see Taubira endorsing Hidalgo if she endorses considering how Hidalgo and PS killed her campaign by successfully trying to get Mayors to not endorse Taubira.

[JimJamUK]

I can't see Taubira endorsing Hidalgo if she endorses considering how Hidalgo and PS killed her campaign by successfully trying to get Mayors to not endorse Taubira.

I mean, was Taubira expecting the Socialist Party to support their mayors endorsing a rival candidate?

[President Johnson]

Macron officially confirmes what was already known, that he'll to run for reelection. Endorsed.

https://twitter.com/visactu/status/1499471999764246545

[Sir John Johns]

https://twitter.com/chevenement/status/1497884468442501120

I have decided to provide a republican endorsement to Emmanuel Macron in view of the upcoming presidential election. He’s the only one in my view able, through a second five-year term, to rebuild the country and to give back a meaning to politics.

If someone had told me in 2002 that, twenty years later, Chevènement would have endorsed in the presidential first round the candidate supported by both Alain Madelin and Robert Hue in the 2017 presidential first round because he’s the only one able to ‘give back a meaning in politics’...

How big is this news?

As said by Zinneke, this is politically insignificant, this was barely noticed and the few who care about what Chevènement says are now calling him a traitor/a senile man. The last office Chevènement has held was the chairmanship of the Islam Foundation of France (2016-18) dedicated to favor the emergence of ‘a humanist Islam, an Islam of France recognizing the values and principles of the Republic’ (putting a former fan of Saddam Hussein at that post was probably not the idea of the century); I don’t know however if he is still living in that social housing which stirred up controversy a decade ago.

The endorsement of Chevènement however is coming at the same time that the ones of several former bigwigs of the UMP/LR and PS (Marisol Touraine, Élisabeth Guigou, Manuel Valls, Jean-Pierre Raffarin, Éric Woerth awaiting possibly the ones of Claude Bartolone and Nicolas Sarkozy) which is reinforcing the posture of Macron as a ‘unifying figure’ at a time of a major international crisis (none of these endorsements are actually surprising and there have been planed before Putin decided invading Ukraine). Of course, this could also vindicate the former diatribes of Le Pen against ‘the UMPS’ and consolidate Macron as the candidate of the ‘system’.

And, speaking of over-hyped endorsement, new rumors on an imminent endorsement of Zemmour by Marion Maréchal who is apparently planning to come back in politics by running in the next legislative (but not in the Vaucluse constituency she was the deputy between 2012 and 2017, this will be Gard this time).

Taubira drops out:

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220302-christiane-taubira-withdraws-from-french-presidential-race

Wonder if she'll endorse and who it would be. Hidalgo should also drop out and probably Rousell. The left needs to consolidate behind Jadot or Melenchon Their the only two with a shot at making the runoff.

Logically, Taubira should endorse Jadot, who came second in the popular primary. But she has always been a style-over-substance politician, so she could as well endorse Mélenchon like Ségolène Royal or just endorse nobody after having declaimed one of her pompous speeches.

Neither Hidalgo nor Roussel will drop out, this is too late now and the whole point of these candidacies now is to measure the imbalance of political forces before negotiating agreement for the legislative elections with other left-wing parties. If the PS and the PC give up now, they would be in  a weak position in such deals. Additionally, the money already spent in the campaigns of Hidalgo and Roussel will not be reimbursed. Neither party (but especially the PS) can’t afford to waste money on a stillborn presidential candidacy. The only solution would be to reach a financial deal with a bigger presidential candidate in exchange of a drop out and a formal endorsement but I don’t see that happening. The only candidate Roussel could endorse is Mélenchon but the whole point of his candidacy has been to affirm the independence of the PC from LFI; he has no interest to drop out, especially as polls are good for him. As for Hidalgo, by this point her endorsement would certainly be a negative and I’m don’t see why the campaign of Jadot (the likely candidate she would endorse) would agree to take charge of the money spent by Hidalgo in exchange of her ridiculously low vote, especially as now EELV has the opportunity to decisively supersede the PS as the main center-left party.


parochialboy will be pleased as Poutou said he will be on the ballot :

https://twitter.com/PhilippePoutou/status/1499414628291465216

We’ve got the 500!

So what we have repeated since the beginning of the campaign is by now secured: we will be there!

We will so continue and broaden an anticapitalist, ecologist, antiracist, feminist internationalist campaign. Do not hesitate to join us.