French presidential election, 2022

[Lechasseur]

Any sane person on the right who is interested in governing has joined Macron, so competing in the LR primary you have to go a little crazy. It's a bit disappointing though. Mind you, I'd much rather have Barnier implementing that sort of thing than Le Pen.

It's ni-ni for me. LR is just about as bad as RN at this point. Like LR is just RN for rich people now.

And yeah as a non-EU citizen (even though I was born in the EU and have lived here almost my whole life), I'm not putting up with that garbage. Why arbitrarily pick non-EU? What's the difference between LR and Le Pen now? Basically none.

[Coldstream]

I feel like Ciotti is auditioning to be Le Pen’s Prime Minister rather than thinking he actually has a shot at the Presidency.

[parochial boy]

Effortpost.

I was under the impression Pecresse was more on the right of the party than on the NKM, Bertrand side.

It will be interesting to see if Macron leans into the left again in his campaign this time round or whether he tries to point to his record in government in order to appeal to the right.  Both carry risks for the second round of course.

I'm not that familiar but I get the impression she's on the left of the party - she called for Fillon to step down in 2017 (though that's not strictly a left/right thing) and criticised Wauquiez for being too close to the far right. May be wrong though.

Pécresse is not in the party anymore, she left in 2019 to create her own party, Soyons Libres, because she thinks the party is too right-wing right now, refuses to consider green issues, has abandoned the values of the UMP and voted against some common sense reforms made by Macron (mainly on university and railroad reforms).

And yet she has a chance to be LR's candidate... 

The French party system is like fractal geometry or something. You know, the closer you look, the more ridiculous and complex and nonsensical it becomes.

[Logical]

Effortpost.

I was under the impression Pecresse was more on the right of the party than on the NKM, Bertrand side.

It will be interesting to see if Macron leans into the left again in his campaign this time round or whether he tries to point to his record in government in order to appeal to the right.  Both carry risks for the second round of course.

I'm not that familiar but I get the impression she's on the left of the party - she called for Fillon to step down in 2017 (though that's not strictly a left/right thing) and criticised Wauquiez for being too close to the far right. May be wrong though.

Pécresse is not in the party anymore, she left in 2019 to create her own party, Soyons Libres, because she thinks the party is too right-wing right now, refuses to consider green issues, has abandoned the values of the UMP and voted against some common sense reforms made by Macron (mainly on university and railroad reforms).

And yet she has a chance to be LR's candidate... 

The French party system is like fractal geometry or something. You know, the closer you look, the more ridiculous and complex and nonsensical it becomes.

Kremlinologists are analysts who found French politics too difficult to comprehend.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I am really not looking forward to this election. It sure looks like we're headed for a ing FBM/Panzergirl rematch, even though most French people rightfully despise both of these clowns. The best hope might honestly be someone like Bertrand, although I fully expect him to default to the same toxic mix of outdated neoliberalism and cynical pandering to normalized islamophobia that's worked so well for FBM so far. But oh well. Of course I'll try to follow this closely.

[Geoffrey Howe]

I am really not looking forward to this election. It sure looks like we're headed for a ing FBM/Panzergirl rematch, even though most French people rightfully despise both of these clowns. The best hope might honestly be someone like Bertrand, although I fully expect him to default to the same toxic mix of outdated neoliberalism and cynical pandering to normalized islamophobia that's worked so well for FBM so far. But oh well. Of course I'll try to follow this closely.

I wouldn't be so pessimistic as you. It is almost impossible to undo left-wing policies and reduce the size of the State (particularly in France ). Even Mrs Thatcher barely managed to do so over eleven years. As for "normalised islamophobia" (which I too find unpleasant), this will continue so long as we believe in representative democracy and the French feel there is a problem with Islam in France. I do not know how to solve that - and I don't think this sort of thing helps - but I do think it reflects very real concerns. Is this not democracy at work? Plus, there'll be at least one left-wing candidate to your taste

[Antonio the Sixth]

I am really not looking forward to this election. It sure looks like we're headed for a ing FBM/Panzergirl rematch, even though most French people rightfully despise both of these clowns. The best hope might honestly be someone like Bertrand, although I fully expect him to default to the same toxic mix of outdated neoliberalism and cynical pandering to normalized islamophobia that's worked so well for FBM so far. But oh well. Of course I'll try to follow this closely.

I wouldn't be so pessimistic as you. It is almost impossible to undo left-wing policies and reduce the size of the State (particularly in France ). Even Mrs Thatcher barely managed to do so over eleven years. As for "normalised islamophobia" (which I too find unpleasant), this will continue so long as we believe in representative democracy and the French feel there is a problem with Islam in France. I do not know how to solve that - and I don't think this sort of thing helps - but I do think it reflects very real concerns. Is this not democracy at work? Plus, there'll be at least one left-wing candidate to your taste

Oh, I'll vote for Jadot or whomever else the best-positioned left-leaning candidate ends up being. It's not like I can be particularly demanding right now.

The "it's democracy" retort is a vacuous platitude though. Of course I believe in democracy, and people have a right to vote for bad policies if they want to, but that doesn't make those policies any less contemptible.

[Lechasseur]

I am really not looking forward to this election. It sure looks like we're headed for a ing FBM/Panzergirl rematch, even though most French people rightfully despise both of these clowns. The best hope might honestly be someone like Bertrand, although I fully expect him to default to the same toxic mix of outdated neoliberalism and cynical pandering to normalized islamophobia that's worked so well for FBM so far. But oh well. Of course I'll try to follow this closely.

This will be the most disgusting election in my lifetime.

I'm very reluctantly backing Macron simply because the realistic alternatives are Le Pen and LR.

[Geoffrey Howe]

The "it's democracy" retort is a vacuous platitude though. Of course I believe in democracy, and people have a right to vote for bad policies if they want to, but that doesn't make those policies any less contemptible.

It's not a defence of the policy or rhetoric on its merits, but surely politicians are to a certain extent bound by public opinion? If people cannot express their feelings through democratic channels, they will end up doing so through far worse forms. As it happens, I'm convinced that the cultural conservatism and French leftism are inextricably bound, and the solution is some good old Anglo-Saxon ultraliberalism

[parochial boy]

I am really not looking forward to this election. It sure looks like we're headed for a ing FBM/Panzergirl rematch, even though most French people rightfully despise both of these clowns. The best hope might honestly be someone like Bertrand, although I fully expect him to default to the same toxic mix of outdated neoliberalism and cynical pandering to normalized islamophobia that's worked so well for FBM so far. But oh well. Of course I'll try to follow this closely.

I wouldn't be so pessimistic as you. It is almost impossible to undo left-wing policies and reduce the size of the State (particularly in France ). Even Mrs Thatcher barely managed to do so over eleven years. As for "normalised islamophobia" (which I too find unpleasant), this will continue so long as we believe in representative democracy and the French feel there is a problem with Islam in France. I do not know how to solve that - and I don't think this sort of thing helps - but I do think it reflects very real concerns. Is this not democracy at work? Plus, there'll be at least one left-wing candidate to your taste

Oh, I'll vote for Jadot or whomever else the best-positioned left-leaning candidate ends up being. It's not like I can be particularly demanding right now.

Really? I mean, Jadot is the worst sort of left - elitist, shallow and without a single social fibre in his body. Considering that the left seems to determined to go into this election more fractured than ever, and has essentially no chance of getting a candidate to the second round, I would imagine this would be the time to go with a values vote in the hopes of the better leftist factions getting an at least comparatively better score.

Although, in that respect, all the likely mainstream left candidates are dreadful. So ymmv in any case

[Antonio the Sixth]

The "it's democracy" retort is a vacuous platitude though. Of course I believe in democracy, and people have a right to vote for bad policies if they want to, but that doesn't make those policies any less contemptible.

It's not a defence of the policy or rhetoric on its merits, but surely politicians are to a certain extent bound by public opinion? If people cannot express their feelings through democratic channels, they will end up doing so through far worse forms. As it happens, I'm convinced that the cultural conservatism and French leftism are inextricably bound, and the solution is some good old Anglo-Saxon ultraliberalism

Hahahahahahaha. Right, Because "Anglo-Saxon ultraliberalism" has worked so well at forestalling populist xenophobia. You certainly don't find any of that in the parties of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan!

And again, you're not saying anything meaningful here. Of course people can vote for xenophobic politicians if they want to. That doesn't make xenophobic politicians any less reprehensible.

Really? I mean, Jadot is the worst sort of left - elitist, shallow and without a single social fibre in his body. Considering that the left seems to determined to go into this election more fractured than ever, and has essentially no chance of getting a candidate to the second round, I would imagine this would be the time to go with a values vote in the hopes of the better leftist factions getting an at least comparatively better score.

Although, in that respect, all the likely mainstream left candidates are dreadful. So ymmv in any case

I guess it'll depend on how blackpilled I am on the Left's chances come April 10. If I think there's any chance of qualifying for the runoff, I'll vote for whoever can make that happen (possibly even ing Mélenchon). Otherwise, sure, I might as well throw out my vote to the least awful candidate. At this stage I have no idea who that might be, though. In general, though, keep in mind that my standards for French politicians are very low at this point.

[Zinneke]

I am really not looking forward to this election. It sure looks like we're headed for a ing FBM/Panzergirl rematch, even though most French people rightfully despise both of these clowns. The best hope might honestly be someone like Bertrand, although I fully expect him to default to the same toxic mix of outdated neoliberalism and cynical pandering to normalized islamophobia that's worked so well for FBM so far. But oh well. Of course I'll try to follow this closely.

I wouldn't be so pessimistic as you. It is almost impossible to undo left-wing policies and reduce the size of the State (particularly in France ). Even Mrs Thatcher barely managed to do so over eleven years. As for "normalised islamophobia" (which I too find unpleasant), this will continue so long as we believe in representative democracy and the French feel there is a problem with Islam in France. I do not know how to solve that - and I don't think this sort of thing helps - but I do think it reflects very real concerns. Is this not democracy at work? Plus, there'll be at least one left-wing candidate to your taste

Oh, I'll vote for Jadot or whomever else the best-positioned left-leaning candidate ends up being. It's not like I can be particularly demanding right now.

Really? I mean, Jadot is the worst sort of left - elitist, shallow and without a single social fibre in his body. Considering that the left seems to determined to go into this election more fractured than ever, and has essentially no chance of getting a candidate to the second round, I would imagine this would be the time to go with a values vote in the hopes of the better leftist factions getting an at least comparatively better score.

Although, in that respect, all the likely mainstream left candidates are dreadful. So ymmv in any case

Yeah but again this is what I mean when I say the Left has a losing mentality in France. Ruling out a candidate because he’s an NGO type (new to the European left?), because he attended a police demo and because he once said he thinks there’s a place for the market in modern economic policy. Like sure you can criticise him for this, but its just nitpicking when there’s an overall bigger struggle and the rule of the game. Jadot is actually the most logical, presentable candidate if you are just looking for a “vague Left”.


All that being said, I draw the line at the dictator-lover Mélenchon who said Russia and China hadn’t invaded a single country in the past 200 years (lmfao) and called the invasion of Tibet a liberation of Tibetans from a theocratic regime. THAT for me is a red line, because if I were French I wouldn’t want the guy with his finger on the nuclear button to first have to call his creditors in Russia and China.


But yeah Jadot "the worst sort of Left" because he attended a police demo once. I think there are far worse. And Mélenchon ranks among the lowest for his terrible record of sabotaging the Left so he can go on holiday in Venezuela and increasingly hysterical views and conspiracies.

[parochial boy]

Yeah but again this is what I mean when I say the Left has a losing mentality in France. Ruling out a candidate because he’s an NGO type (new to the European left?), because he attended a police demo and because he once said he thinks there’s a place for the market in modern economic policy. Like sure you can criticise him for this, but its just nitpicking when there’s an overall bigger struggle and the rule of the game. Jadot is actually the most logical, presentable candidate if you are just looking for a “vague Left”.


All that being said, I draw the line at the dictator-lover Mélenchon who said Russia and China hadn’t invaded a single country in the past 200 years (lmfao) and called the invasion of Tibet a liberation of Tibetans from a theocratic regime. THAT for me is a red line, because if I were French I wouldn’t want the guy with his finger on the nuclear button to first have to call his creditors in Russia and China.


But yeah Jadot "the worst sort of Left" because he attended a police demo once. I think there are far worse. And Mélenchon ranks among the lowest for his terrible record of sabotaging the Left so he can go on holiday in Venezuela and increasingly hysterical views and conspiracies.

Except you're misrepresenting where the critisicms of Jadot stem from. He has been deeply unpopular with about half of the left from long before that police demo, it was when  he started reproducing lines about republican values, being above the left-right divide, or writing woolly opinion pieces about "market oriented climate policy" or whatever in Le Figaro. One of the single most stinging criticisms I have heard of that wing of EÉLV came from a friend of a friend who used to work in the old Strasbourg PS administration, was the that the new ecologist one (yes, the turkish mega mosque one) was totally uninterested in concrete things like social exclusion, the state of the city's HLMs, housing provision generally, child care or social workers and protection; the sort of social policy that the left should have at its heart. And this was a PS guy being vividly critical, hardly Olivier Besancenot.

The problem is that Jadot is not electable; it's just that getting a decent score at the Europeans and municipals off the back of Greta Thunberg and being the default "not Macron and not the right" option in 2019 has convinced him that he was on to something that he wasn't. Being Macron-soft might play well among a certain well educated, ville-centre, bobo type crowd. But turning that into some logic that he can spread that appeal across society as a whole at the same time as dragging over the entirety of the 25% of the French population actually willing to vote for the left at the moment is magical thinking, pure and simple, and stems from the frankly false analysis that "globalism v nationalism" is the nouveau clivage and whatever. French society is actually much more complex and fractured than that analysis gives it credit for.

So yes, I am defeatist about this election. The left isn't going to win it, and that includes Mélenchon, who has spent the last few years repeatedly shooting himself in the foot enough to have killed all the goodwill that might have been there otherwise. There are simply not enough people ideologically attached to the left for that to happen and no-one on the left has managed to come up with a convincing message to move beyond that core, or has even looked close to doing that. What I can guarantee you though, is that more of the Flanby era liberalism-with-a-smiling-face is definitely not going to get anywhere beyond the happy France of the metropoles and university towns. Because, frankly, you aren't going to out-Macron Macron, and even he has read the writing on the walls and realised that the face isn't smiling any more.

[Geoffrey Howe]

The "it's democracy" retort is a vacuous platitude though. Of course I believe in democracy, and people have a right to vote for bad policies if they want to, but that doesn't make those policies any less contemptible.

It's not a defence of the policy or rhetoric on its merits, but surely politicians are to a certain extent bound by public opinion? If people cannot express their feelings through democratic channels, they will end up doing so through far worse forms. As it happens, I'm convinced that the cultural conservatism and French leftism are inextricably bound, and the solution is some good old Anglo-Saxon ultraliberalism

Hahahahahahaha. Right, Because "Anglo-Saxon ultraliberalism" has worked so well at forestalling populist xenophobia. You certainly don't find any of that in the parties of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan!

And again, you're not saying anything meaningful here. Of course people can vote for xenophobic politicians if they want to. That doesn't make xenophobic politicians any less reprehensible.

In fact Britain and particularly America are much more culturally liberal than France. Britain is considerably less xenophobic and illiberal than France. You seem to forget that it was Mrs Thatcher who made the first steps to "globalisation" and Britain (particularly London) is a much more "worldly" place since Thatcher's premiership. I see France's cultural conservatism as part of the centralising current in France that demands conformity - it is not difficult to see how this translates into a taste for equality.

I think you are missing my point about xenophobia. You said you were pessimistic - to which I tried to put a positive spin: does this not highlight the health of French democracy that politicians reflect the views of the people? Of course, in a representative democracy, politicians should not always slavishly follow public opinion; but the general tendency should be in that direction.

[Zinneke]

Rachida Dati is fancying a run (another deadbeat to add to the list) but, more interestingly, wrote an opinion piece warning the non-FN Right to not go down the road of a primary, favoring a free for all until some point in the campaign (January). This may be how it works due to primaries being no seen as outdated and not selecting ideal candidates.

Also Ségolène Royale has endorsed Hidalgo. But yeah no one cares lol.

[Zinneke]

no further comment

[Zinneke]

Hidalgo is officially in but I had to switch off for her speech because it was just about vague "respect between each other" stuff - tedious Olivier Faure was given a backing by PS members to continue on as Sec Gen of the party and will likely try to organise some sort of primary.

In other news though, the vaccine pass manifestations are still going strong, and as a blow to Macron Agnes Buzyn has been investigated for negligence while in her role as Health Minister.

[parochial boy]

She's quite popular with young left-activists - I think mostly down to the green stuff like the anti-car politics or banning wood fires. In which case, I wouldn't put it beyond her as being the candidate capable to bridging the irreconciliable gap between the two left-wing poles. Even if she has many of the flaws that Jadot does.

In that respect, I've seen it mooted, and it seems likely (possible) that we are heading to some sort of "tacit primary" or "primary by opinion poll" on the left. Meaning several out of her, the EELV candidate, Roussel, Montebourg dropping out over the winter if ones of the other candidates is polling better. Even if none will admit that at the moment (Montebourg in particular is expected to have trouble getting the 500 signatures from the outset). Problem is Mélenchon is probably not going to play the game, and is currently still polling the best, even if he has started to alienate some normally fairly reliable alies and supporters in recent weeks.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Welp, considering my bf has a French citizenship I guess I should start following this. Could a Hidalgo-Jadot union take enough votes from Melenchon (if timed right) to get a respectable showing (which would be, I'd say, mid teens)?

[parochial boy]

Zemmour was told that he couldn't appear on CNews any more, as it would break campaign laws given that he is holding back on announcing and all of the rest. So cue outrage about censorship because he has to follow the same rules that everyone else does.

Welp, considering my bf has a French citizenship I guess I should start following this. Could a Hidalgo-Jadot union take enough votes from Melenchon (if timed right) to get a respectable showing (which would be, I'd say, mid teens)?

Jadot and Hidalgo are polling roughly evenly at the moment, but I imagine it is entirely possible that at some point one or the other gets some inertia and pulls ahead and that creates a lot of pressure for the other to pull out.

As for the Mélenchon factor, I can't even begin to imagine - he's having a bit of a Corbyn moment wrt antisemitism accusations (a, being charitable, clumsy expression about "my enemy is the financier" complete with refusal to accept why that would be an issue, which has had his supporters digging down to support him. Familiar stuff).

In any case, is it's a bit of a truism with French presidential elections that they never end going the way they are supposed. Someone always surges or crashes in a totally unexpected way - but quite how that plays out, I wouldn't even want to try and predict at the moment.

[America Needs R'hllor]

As for the Mélenchon factor, I can't even begin to imagine - he's having a bit of a Corbyn moment wrt antisemitism accusations (a, being charitable, clumsy expression about "my enemy is the financier" complete with refusal to accept why that would be an issue, which has had his supporters digging down to support him. Familiar stuff).

Not surprising considering he said that Corbyn lost because of a Mossad campaign

[Zinneke]

Mélenchon though, is again proving he is a far better tactical campaigner than most on the Left- he is actually talking about what people want to hear about (something the PS have basically given up on doing), such as the Covid Pass, and has a way of in general bending his views to suit certain narratives. He ran the best tactical campaign last time out too (handily made up the most ground out of all the candidates during the official campaign). What lets him down is a lack of general strategy and total egomania/paranoia.

His main issue will be getting enough signatures without the support of Communist mayors. In the end if he reaches that I firmly expect him to be a thorn in any other left-wing candidate's side.

[Continential]

I doubt PS will endorse Jadot considering that it would be humiliating for them to not be on the ballot for the Presidency.

[parochial boy]

Mélenchon though, is again proving he is a far better tactical campaigner than most on the Left- he is ac.

His main issue will be getting enough signatures without the support of Communist mayors. In the end if he reaches that I firmly expect him to be a thorn in any other left-wing candidate's side.

I had a quick look and was actually pretty surprised to discover that the PCF have 240 mayors of communes > 1000 people as of the 2020 municipals, and possibly that or even more among the smaller ones. Roussel's decision to play the anti-woke line hasn't exactly been uncontroversial in the party, but I suspect enough of them are either on board with it or just happy enough to be there for your point about mayors to be pretty accurate.

I doubt PS will endorse Jadot considering that it would be humiliating for them to not be on the ballot for the Presidency.

Faure has been more or less explicitely in favour of the possibility for a while now. A lot of the membership would find it humiliating, but Faure got re-elected as head of the party, so the opening seems there. Right now it seems to be going in the other way with Hidalgo, but we're in the phony primary phase, so it's up for grabs.

In particular putting their weight behing Jadot would open up the possibility of alliances at the legislatives (and others further down the line), with the goal of achieveing the most important thing - saving as much furniture as possible

[parochial boy]

Results from the first round of the ecologist primary:

Yannick Jadot - 27,70%
Sandrine Rousseau - 25,14%
Delphine Batho - 22,32%
Eric Piolle - 22,29%
Jean-Marc Governatori - 2,35%

Which means a Jadot v Rousseau second round over the 25th to 28th

Or in other words the centrist media darling v the queen of woke