French presidential election, 2022

[parochial boy]

Hidalgo is in too.

There should be a seperate topic for these low energy media-obsessed losers that are throwing their candidacies forward in the hope to get 5-7% at best.

Montebourg too. Between these two, Roussel, Jadot (presumably), Méluche and the Trots it’s a bit of a roflmao style fail on the left unity front. Odds on not a single left candidate hitting double figures?

[Zinneke]

Hidalgo is in too.

There should be a seperate topic for these low energy media-obsessed losers that are throwing their candidacies forward in the hope to get 5-7% at best.

Montebourg too. Between these two, Roussel, Jadot (presumably), Méluche and the Trots it’s a bit of a roflmao style fail on the left unity front. Odds on not a single left candidate hitting double figures?

Jadot and Piolle are kickstarting the rentrée politique by clashing at the EELV summer university. After Piolle's declarations last week i think i prefer Jadot.

Also it will be interesting to see where JLM gets his signatures if Roussel runs. PCF still had the clout to get him over the line last time out.

[parochial boy]

Hidalgo is in too.

There should be a seperate topic for these low energy media-obsessed losers that are throwing their candidacies forward in the hope to get 5-7% at best.

Montebourg too. Between these two, Roussel, Jadot (presumably), Méluche and the Trots it’s a bit of a roflmao style fail on the left unity front. Odds on not a single left candidate hitting double figures?

Jadot and Piolle are kickstarting the rentrée politique by clashing at the EELV summer university. After Piolle's declarations last week i think i prefer Jadot.

Also it will be interesting to see where JLM gets his signatures if Roussel runs. PCF still had the clout to get him over the line last time out.

I despise Jadot, for a number of reasons I think don’t need to be explained, but by which I mean - The CGT and mediapart lefts also hate him. Which is enough to mean he has no chance of emerging as the great left wing hope or of getting anything more than a mediocre single figure score.

I’m also completely mistified as to the purpose of Roussel’s candidacy. Or indeed, the purpose of the PCF beyond keeping a few pensioners busy.

[Zinneke]

So as parochial and I were discussing there was the EELV conference and we neglected to include the 3 other candidates for the EELV nomination of sorts :

Delphine Batho is a Hollande government “veteran” despite being youngish for French politics, with a strong mediatic profile, and who is a bit outside the EELV bubble and has policies to match. She is against policies like the carbon tax and is a bit of a populist as such, trying to eat away at the remnant of social democracy in France. She’s also very... forceful on the laicité question

 

Jean-Marc Governatori is a Niçois that represents the most centrist current in EELV with a strong belief that ecology shouldn’t be restricted to a left or right dichotomy. He claimed in his speech he is less interested in blaming Macron, Brussels and whoever for issues and instead wants ecology to become a political ideology of personal responsibility. He wants to add 1 million jobs in the agricultural sector and decentralise France.

 

Sandrine Rousseau is the “ecofeminist” candidate, who links every ecological issue with feminism. She is seen as the dark horse to take on the two mainstream EELV favorites Jadot and Piolle. She received strong support during her speech and is seen as a typical militant, so she could upset the EELV internal dynamics and decisions that are notoriously hard to see coming. Being slightly less cranky that the Rivasi types (that are usually popular with EELV militants) helps her electability.

 

Jadot and Piolle are still favorites, and openly admit that their programs are similar but that they have different styles. For those wondering why Jadot is unpopular with the Left of the Left, one of the reasons was his attendance of a pro-police protest. He defended himself saying he was asked by CGT and other left-wing police unions (apparently they exist) to come to it and not leave them with just RN/LR figures. He’s also seen as a bit of a “high politics” guy who doesn’t get his hands dirty.

 

I personally prefer Jadot to Piolle because Jadot has shown himself to have good political instincts and to be a good speaker, and I’m sick and tired of the losing mentality on the Left in Europe in general. Piolle does have a potentially better track record of actual governance in public functions. But last week he was going on about how he was the incarnation of the entire french left and he generally has a very high opinion of himself according to some. You could say Jadot does too, but then Jadot’s humility was back up by his decision not to run in 2017. When you look at the state of the Left now and its petty factionalism, Jadot actually backed up a willingness to “clear the field” with actions rather than words. He’s a pragamatist rather than an ideologue or a careerist.

To sum up I think in terms of electability :

Jadot
Piolle
Batho/Governatori
Rousseau


In terms of “Presidential” feel :

Piolle
Jadot
Batho
Governatori
Rousseau
 

In terms of similarity in terms of profile with the grassroots :

Rousseau
Piolle
Governatori
Jadot/Batho
 

Those are the 3 variables I think will decide the contest.

 

[Lechasseur]

Would it help or hurt the French far right if Eric Zemmour ran for president?

[Geoffrey Howe]

Would it help or hurt the French far right if Eric Zemmour ran for president?

If Le Pen runs as well, how would it help?
Who did he support in 2017?

[Lechasseur]

Would it help or hurt the French far right if Eric Zemmour ran for president?

If Le Pen runs as well, how would it help? Amusingly, when I was in Paris I saw campaign posters for him in his stronghold...the Ave de Breteuil.
Who did he support in 2017?

More the idea of him mobilizing the far right more and potentially getting people to vote Le Pen in the second round by introducing far right ideas to the public more.

But then a candidacy of his could also discredit the far right and make people less likely to vote Le Pen in the runoff..

I'm not sure how that would turn out.

But yeah in the first round it definitely wouldn't help Le Pen.

And if he did run, is their a realistic chance that he'd prevent Le Pen from making the runoff?

[Geoffrey Howe]

I don't think he needs to run to help them. Insofar as he has any influence, he can exert it through radio/television appearances (which seem constant to me). Besides, if he ran and he/Le Pen managed to get to the second round, that would take a lot of momentum out of the campaign as it would presumably be narrow.


I continue to wonder how LR will do. On the assumption, of course, that they run Bertrand/Pécresse; Wauquiez and Retailleau (hard right conservative Catholic from the Vendée, which basically describes the LR electorate nowadays) only appeal to a very small niche. I get the impression that Macron has shifted slightly left, so that may leave a small opening; though I remain very sceptical of anyone other than Macron and Le Pen getting to the second round.

[Zinneke]

Zemmour would have to give up his media slots if he runs. Thats in fact why he is probably hesitating.

[parochial boy]

Zemmour would have to give up his media slots if he runs. Thats in fact why he is probably hesitating.

Oh he'd be fine

[Geoffrey Howe]

Michel Barnier has announced he’ll be a candidate in the primary of the right, which might have surprised some. He’s now trotting out his new idea of controlling immigration - not sure how seriously people will take that. Also the usual about work, merit etc.

Eric Ciotti will also be a candidate. He’s going tough on the immigration/identity line (who isn’t?). His big thing is that “France needs to remain France.” He wants to replace jus soli entirely with jus sanguinis, and put France’s “Christian roots” in the Constitution. The usual about Islamic fundamentalism etc.

Laurent Wauquiez will not be a candidate.

Worth noting they all stress the importance of unity and that there needs to be only one candidate.

[Geoffrey Howe]

OK, I should sum up like Zinneke for the right.


DECLARED:

Xavier Bertrand (President of the Hauts-de-France region)
Valérie Pécresse (President of the Île-de-France region)
Michel Barnier (former head of EU UK Task Force)
Eric Ciotti (Deputy for Alpes-Maritimes 1)
Philippe Juvin (former MEP for Île-de-France)

DECLINED:

Laurent Wauquiez (former head of LR, President of Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes)
Bruno Retailleau (President of the LR group in the Senate)

UNDECLARED:

Bruno Retailleau (President of the LR group in the Senate)
David Lisnard (deputy president of Alpes-Maritimes)


Bertrand does not want to participate in the primary and is hoping to emerge as the "natural" candidate without one; as far as I know, all the others support a primary and stress the importance of unity. On the Le Figaro website, the open poll has 58% support for a primary.

Anyway, it looked like Pécresse and Bertrand were the frontrunners, though who knows now. Bertand/Pécresse/Barnier seem to be going after the left-wing of the right, with Ciotti running hard on the right. They all stress the security theme (Pécresse was making something about the threat to pharmacists and carers), but it seems like Ciotti is really going after the FN line of identity and immigration, the need to "remain French" and so on. My guess is that Barnier would go down the competence, unity line and maybe stress economic issues more.

Retailleau is very popular with Fillon loyalists and devout Catholics, and I think is essentially the only one who is going after an electorate restricted and loyal to LR (right-wing Catholics who don't like Le Pen, traditionalists, Fillon obsessives), whereas the others seem to want to peel votes off Macron or Le Pen. FWIW my preferred candidate is probably Barnier, though I don't see the point of him and Macron both running.

[MaxQue]

OK, I should sum up like Zinneke for the right.


DECLARED:

Xavier Bertrand (President of the Hauts-de-France region)
Valérie Pécresse (President of the Île-de-France region)
Michel Barnier (former head of EU UK Task Force)
Eric Ciotti (Deputy for Alpes-Maritimes 1)
Philippe Juvin (former MEP for Île-de-France)

DECLINED:

Laurent Wauquiez (former head of LR, President of Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes)

UNDECLARED:

Bruno Retailleau (President of the LR group in the Senate)
David Lisnard (deputy president of Alpes-Maritimes)


Bertrand does not want to participate in the primary and is hoping to emerge as the "natural" candidate without one; as far as I know, all the others support a primary and stress the importance of unity. On the Le Figaro website, the open poll has 58% support for a primary.

Anyway, it looked like Pécresse and Bertrand were the frontrunners, though who knows now. Bertand/Pécresse/Barnier seem to be going after the left-wing of the right, with Ciotti running hard on the right. They all stress the security theme (Pécresse was making something about the threat to pharmacists and carers), but it seems like Ciotti is really going after the FN line of identity and immigration, the need to "remain French" and so on. My guess is that Barnier would go down the competence, unity line and maybe stress economic issues more.

Retailleau is very popular with Fillon loyalists and devout Catholics, and I think is essentially the only one who is going after an electorate restricted and loyal to LR (right-wing Catholics who don't like Le Pen, traditionalists, Fillon obsessives), whereas the others seem to want to peel votes off Macron or Le Pen. FWIW my preferred candidate is probably Barnier, though I don't see the point of him and Macron both running.

Retailleau also declined today.

[Lechasseur]

Michel Barnier has announced he’ll be a candidate in the primary of the right, which might have surprised some. He’s now trotting out his new idea of controlling immigration - not sure how seriously people will take that. Also the usual about work, merit etc.

Eric Ciotti will also be a candidate. He’s going tough on the immigration/identity line (who isn’t?). His big thing is that “France needs to remain France.” He wants to replace jus soli entirely with jus sanguinis, and put France’s “Christian roots” in the Constitution. The usual about Islamic fundamentalism etc.

Laurent Wauquiez will not be a candidate.

Worth noting they all stress the importance of unity and that there needs to be only one candidate.

What's Barnier's exact proposal to "control immigration"?

I'd assume Ciotti is basically proposing whatever Le Pen proposes

[Geoffrey Howe]

Michel Barnier has announced he’ll be a candidate in the primary of the right, which might have surprised some. He’s now trotting out his new idea of controlling immigration - not sure how seriously people will take that. Also the usual about work, merit etc.

Eric Ciotti will also be a candidate. He’s going tough on the immigration/identity line (who isn’t?). His big thing is that “France needs to remain France.” He wants to replace jus soli entirely with jus sanguinis, and put France’s “Christian roots” in the Constitution. The usual about Islamic fundamentalism etc.

Laurent Wauquiez will not be a candidate.

Worth noting they all stress the importance of unity and that there needs to be only one candidate.

What's Barnier's exact proposal to "control immigration"?

I'd assume Ciotti is basically proposing whatever Le Pen proposes

Not sure. All I read in Le Monde is that "il veut maîtriser l'immigration."

[Lechasseur]

Michel Barnier has announced he’ll be a candidate in the primary of the right, which might have surprised some. He’s now trotting out his new idea of controlling immigration - not sure how seriously people will take that. Also the usual about work, merit etc.

Eric Ciotti will also be a candidate. He’s going tough on the immigration/identity line (who isn’t?). His big thing is that “France needs to remain France.” He wants to replace jus soli entirely with jus sanguinis, and put France’s “Christian roots” in the Constitution. The usual about Islamic fundamentalism etc.

Laurent Wauquiez will not be a candidate.

Worth noting they all stress the importance of unity and that there needs to be only one candidate.

What's Barnier's exact proposal to "control immigration"?

I'd assume Ciotti is basically proposing whatever Le Pen proposes

Not sure. All I read in Le Monde is that "il veut maîtriser l'immigration."

I'd imagine he'd probably be taking a line similar to Macron rather than to Le Pen though (and I hope he's much, much closer to Macron)

I can agree that Barnier from what I know (need to see what he says on immigration though) seems to be the preferable candidate on the LR side atm.

[Lechasseur]

If Barnier isn't extreme on the immigration issue like most of current LR, I may back him next year if he wins the primary.

Otherwise, I'll probably hold my nose for Macron

[Zinneke]

Michel Barnier has announced he’ll be a candidate in the primary of the right, which might have surprised some. He’s now trotting out his new idea of controlling immigration - not sure how seriously people will take that. Also the usual about work, merit etc.

Eric Ciotti will also be a candidate. He’s going tough on the immigration/identity line (who isn’t?). His big thing is that “France needs to remain France.” He wants to replace jus soli entirely with jus sanguinis, and put France’s “Christian roots” in the Constitution. The usual about Islamic fundamentalism etc.

Laurent Wauquiez will not be a candidate.

Worth noting they all stress the importance of unity and that there needs to be only one candidate.

What's Barnier's exact proposal to "control immigration"?

I'd assume Ciotti is basically proposing whatever Le Pen proposes

Barnier said he wants to stop non-EU immigration completely for a period of time.

[Conservatopia]

Effortpost.

I was under the impression Pecresse was more on the right of the party than on the NKM, Bertrand side.

It will be interesting to see if Macron leans into the left again in his campaign this time round or whether he tries to point to his record in government in order to appeal to the right.  Both carry risks for the second round of course.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Effortpost.

I was under the impression Pecresse was more on the right of the party than on the NKM, Bertrand side.

It will be interesting to see if Macron leans into the left again in his campaign this time round or whether he tries to point to his record in government in order to appeal to the right.  Both carry risks for the second round of course.

I'm not that familiar but I get the impression she's on the left of the party - she called for Fillon to step down in 2017 (though that's not strictly a left/right thing) and criticised Wauquiez for being too close to the far right. May be wrong though.

[MaxQue]

Effortpost.

I was under the impression Pecresse was more on the right of the party than on the NKM, Bertrand side.

It will be interesting to see if Macron leans into the left again in his campaign this time round or whether he tries to point to his record in government in order to appeal to the right.  Both carry risks for the second round of course.

I'm not that familiar but I get the impression she's on the left of the party - she called for Fillon to step down in 2017 (though that's not strictly a left/right thing) and criticised Wauquiez for being too close to the far right. May be wrong though.

Pécresse is not in the party anymore, she left in 2019 to create her own party, Soyons Libres, because she thinks the party is too right-wing right now, refuses to consider green issues, has abandoned the values of the UMP and voted against some common sense reforms made by Macron (mainly on university and railroad reforms).

[Conservatopia]

Effortpost.

I was under the impression Pecresse was more on the right of the party than on the NKM, Bertrand side.

It will be interesting to see if Macron leans into the left again in his campaign this time round or whether he tries to point to his record in government in order to appeal to the right.  Both carry risks for the second round of course.

I'm not that familiar but I get the impression she's on the left of the party - she called for Fillon to step down in 2017 (though that's not strictly a left/right thing) and criticised Wauquiez for being too close to the far right. May be wrong though.

Pécresse is not in the party anymore, she left in 2019 to create her own party, Soyons Libres, because she thinks the party is too right-wing right now, refuses to consider green issues, has abandoned the values of the UMP and voted against some common sense reforms made by Macron (mainly on university and railroad reforms).

And yet she has a chance to be LR's candidate... 

[Lechasseur]

Michel Barnier has announced he’ll be a candidate in the primary of the right, which might have surprised some. He’s now trotting out his new idea of controlling immigration - not sure how seriously people will take that. Also the usual about work, merit etc.

Eric Ciotti will also be a candidate. He’s going tough on the immigration/identity line (who isn’t?). His big thing is that “France needs to remain France.” He wants to replace jus soli entirely with jus sanguinis, and put France’s “Christian roots” in the Constitution. The usual about Islamic fundamentalism etc.

Laurent Wauquiez will not be a candidate.

Worth noting they all stress the importance of unity and that there needs to be only one candidate.

What's Barnier's exact proposal to "control immigration"?

I'd assume Ciotti is basically proposing whatever Le Pen proposes

Barnier said he wants to stop non-EU immigration completely for a period of time.

Oh geez

OK nope he won't get my support

[Geoffrey Howe]

Any sane person on the right who is interested in governing has joined Macron, so competing in the LR primary you have to go a little crazy. It's a bit disappointing though. Mind you, I'd much rather have Barnier implementing that sort of thing than Le Pen.

[Lechasseur]

Any sane person on the right who is interested in governing has joined Macron, so competing in the LR primary you have to go a little crazy. It's a bit disappointing though. Mind you, I'd much rather have Barnier implementing that sort of thing than Le Pen.

Exactly

I used to be an LR supporter but those days are over, they're just about as bad as RN now. It's ni-ni to those two for me now.