French presidential election, 2022

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Macron is about to speak.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In 2017, local favourite son Fillon won Sarthe with 29%. So far, Macron is at 26% there (up 6), Le Pen at 34% (up 13) and Pécresse at... 6% (down 23).

If Pecresse could expect a native daughter effect anywhere, it would probably be in Yvelines. She has 8.2% there, with 44 of 259 communes reporting.

If she does get a native-daughter effect, it will be in the Eastern tip of the department, near the Paris region - the area around Vélizy-Villacoublay and Versailles. This is the area she used to represent and has her political machine.

If you had to make an educated guess, how well do you think she does in Vélizy-Villacoublay?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why was Macron name-dropping the names of a lot of candidates in his first-round victory speech?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Has Le Pen spoken yet?

Yes.

Why was Macron name-dropping the names of a lot of candidates in his first-round victory speech?

My French isn't perfect, but I understand he was thanking them for running in the election and commending their voters.

That would make sense, thank you.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Results from the commune of Dugny in the department of Seine-Saint-Denis:
Melenchon 59
Le Pen 15
Macron 13
Zemmour 5
Pecresse 2
Others 7
Rounded to the nearest whole number.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Is it at all possible the exit poll is wrong and he passes Le Pen?

Depends on the urban vote. But it can't be ruled out I guess.
Melenchon is doing surprisingly well.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Interesting thread.  I haven't visited this forum for at least six years but I was searching for discussion of the French election and encountered this.  I see some familiar names.  Cheers.

I'll add my two cents.  Although I'm not an expert on French politics, I read French newspapers fairly regularly and I watch French television news probably three or four times per week, mostly on the elliptical.  The predictions from the talking heads are mostly that the second tour will be a rematch of 2017 but with a tighter results.  Predictions range from 51-49 to 55-45.  Remember that 2017 was 66-44 (not counting null ballots, which amounted to nearly 12% of the overall.) 

Even Valérie Pécresse says that she will not vote for Le Pen, and is urging her supporters not to do so.  Click here and scroll down to "20:23 L’essentiel" to read more (in French). 

It is worth noting, however, that things are different now than in 2017.  First, Le Pen has pivoted slightly, moderating some of her more radical ideas.  Also, Macron managed to alienate many people with his domestic agenda over the past five years (proposed fuel surcharges, social reforms, suggested changes to la retraite, perceived ineffectiveness during the coronavirus confinement, etc.)  Finally, Zemmour and other rightist candidates have pledged to support Le Pen, which gives many RN supporters hope. 

I'd still guess that Macron gets reelected to a second five-year mandat.  Time will tell.

Bon courage.

I wish you a good time.
Here's to hoping for Le Pen being stopped.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Macron unsurprisingly is going to go 5 for 5 on the mainland Fillon '17 departments. Macron's coalition has visibly gotten more metropolitan, and Melenchon isn't the only one losing rural support.

No votes have come in yet from Paris.
Can we expect Melenchon to gain further ground from Le Pen when Paris' results come in?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Aisne has the best performance for Le Pen, among all French departments. Here she takes 39% of the vote.
This seems to be the second election in a row Aisne gives her the best first-round finish.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

First results from Paris:

Hidalgo can't even place in the top 5 in Paris.
Comes to show how weak the PS is by now.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Commune of Versailes:
Macron 33
Zemmour 18
Melenchon 14.07
Pecresse 14.04
LePen 9
Jadot 6
Melenchon surpassing Pecresse in Versailles sounds impressive, but it might not be in context.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

39 of 47 communes reporting in Val-de-Marne.
Melenchon is ahead of Macron by 976 votes.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Who are these French politicians without egos that everyone seems to be thinking about?

Put from another way, Melenchon acting differently or trying to act with more unity with left-leaning politicians might even provoke Le Pen and Zemmour to run on a unity ticket. It would likely backfire and make it harder for him to get to the run-off.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

All arrondissemonts are in except for the 1st and the 20th.
The 20th should be pretty solidly pro-Melenchon.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

All arrondissemonts are in except for the 1st and the 20th.
The 20th should be pretty solidly pro-Melenchon.

Man, you guys are really into the fine-grained details.  Now I remember that about this place.  Real politics junkies.  Well, I've been to the first but not the 20th arrondissement.  But I do know that Jim Morrison of The Doors is buried there, so I guess that counts for something.

Cheers, Phil.  

No prob man! Best of luck and joy in your life!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Same to you, Phil.  By the way, I have to ask a stupid question.  What is PR?  It usually means Puerto Rico, but I can tell it's not the puertorriqueño shape.  The shape looks vaguely like the eastern parts of the former Third Reich, and a bit of the Kalliningrad oblast tacked onto it.  Is it "Pomerania"? 

Where are you seeing this 'PR'? You might be seeing the outline of Paris.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Same to you, Phil.  By the way, I have to ask a stupid question.  What is PR?  It usually means Puerto Rico, but I can tell it's not the puertorriqueño shape.  The shape looks vaguely like the eastern parts of the pre-1918 German Reich, and a bit of the Kalliningrad oblast tacked onto it.  Is it "Pomerania"?  

It's Prussia

Aaaaah. I see. Yes, this man is right.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

As I've been doing since 2017, here are quick graphs based on Ipsos' analysis of the electorates. As usual, interpret this as you would any poll crosstabs, particularly with the smallest candidates.
[graphs]

Good graphs. Thank you for your hard work.
The single most striking thing here, imo, is Zemmour doing twice as well among men vs women. What could be causing that?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Very american esque, educational polarization pattern.

While these are always dangerous comparisons, it seems like Macron succeeded in building the coalition Hillary Clinton (not Biden!) was expecting to win with.

This is true.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

As I've been doing since 2017, here are quick graphs based on Ipsos' analysis of the electorates. As usual, interpret this as you would any poll crosstabs, particularly with the smallest candidates.
[graphs]

Good graphs. Thank you for your hard work.
The single most striking thing here, imo, is Zemmour doing twice as well among men vs women. What could be causing that?

Has he expressed very sexist views?  Given the rest of his platform, I wouldn't be suprised?

France long has had a largely class-based voting pattern. I'd be surprised if sexist views of any kind really could create this kind of gender gap, since it's even more nonsensical than usual to think of women as a cohesive voter block.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

As I've been doing since 2017, here are quick graphs based on Ipsos' analysis of the electorates. As usual, interpret this as you would any poll crosstabs, particularly with the smallest candidates.
[graphs]

Good graphs. Thank you for your hard work.
The single most striking thing here, imo, is Zemmour doing twice as well among men vs women. What could be causing that?

Has he expressed very sexist views?  Given the rest of his platform, I wouldn't be suprised?

France long has had a largely class-based voting pattern. I'd be surprised if sexist views of any kind really could create this kind of gender gap, since it's even more nonsensical than usual to think of women as a cohesive voter block.

He has been accused of sexual harassment by 8 different women.

Oh, dear.
That might explain it then.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why is the west of France so pro-Macron?

Hash and Antonio can certainly explain in more detail but western France has a Europhilic, Christian Democratic center-right political tradition that made it amenable to a candidate like Macron.

I decided to see if this was in much effect in past elections, so I looked at the 1974 presidential election. Even as Mitterand led by 11 points, d'Estaing won handily in the northwestern half of the country.