Nate Silver believes Democrats will not suffer from low turnout in the 2022 midterms

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1380190906150752258?s=20

[Meatball Ron]

Oh boy, this is gonna get the blue avs in one hell of a tizzy.

I hope he's right. I think there is some logical grounding to this. But, I'll believe it when I see it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs are trying to make amnesty an issue about giving Immigrants more Entitlements.

Afro American people are the ones that are hurt and it's true that there are more Black Republicans Especially in OH.

But, if D's get a Supermajority Senate, then we get Reparations, that's we we should turn NC and OH blue not keep it red but DeWine and Rubio are safe.

DeSantis and Mandel and NC are the states in play DeSantis and Mandel ate disliked by Black Dems

I made my Predictions how it will go and there will be split voting too

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Who cares what he says?

[Matty]

I mean, this is all relative. Wasn't gop turnout actually pretty high in 2018, just not high enough.....

The issue for BOTH the dems and the reps at this point is that trump is not on the ballot.

All those previously apolitical wine moms in the suburbs with hr jobs who never really voted before  2018 and 2020 are going to be much less likely to give a crap about politics now that the orange cheeto they hate is gone

All those previously apolitical joe blows in rural areas who saw their steel job go bye-bye 15 years ago is going to be much less likely to give a crap about politics now that the orange god emperor they fellatio'd is gone.

[Tekken_Guy]

I mean, this is all relative. Wasn't gop turnout actually pretty high in 2018, just not high enough.....

The issue for BOTH the dems and the reps at this point is that trump is not on the ballot.

All those previously apolitical wine moms in the suburbs with hr jobs who never really voted before  2018 and 2020 are going to be much less likely to give a crap about politics now that the orange cheeto they hate is gone

All those previously apolitical joe blows in rural areas who saw their steel job go bye-bye 15 years ago is going to be much less likely to give a crap about politics now that the orange god emperor they fellatio'd is gone.

High enough to hold the senate, for sure. They beat four incumbents, one in a state Democrats shouldn't have had any trouble holding.

[Adam Griffin]

There are of course two pieces to the broader puzzle. As bad as D turnout was in 2010, it was even worse in 2014 (but Democrats improved with independents compared to 2010, helping to offset further drops in turnout). How independents break makes a huge difference. In the past 4 midterms, independents have broken for the out-of-power party by double digits.

That makes a huge difference among a self-identified group that comprises 25-30% of all midterm voters.

2006: D+19
2010: R+18
2014: R+12
2018: D+12

If Democrats as the in-party can pull a 2002 and basically break even with independents, even a fairly meaningful turnout differential benefitting Rs could be absorbed without too many losses.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1380190906150752258?s=20

College educated voters are more likely to vote in midterms then WWC voters, which helps Democrats. Minority voters voting at lower numbers does hurt Democrats. The midterm dynamic used to benefit Republicans but with the education divide starting, both sides have downsides.

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1380190906150752258?s=20

College educated voters are more likely to vote in midterms then WWC voters, which helps Democrats. Minority voters voting at lower numbers does hurt Democrats. The midterm dynamic used to benefit Republicans but with the education divide starting, both sides have downsides.

This is true, but the areas of the nation where college whites are firmly dem now are areas that are already safe dem

In the swing districts of Atlanta, Texas, etc, college whites are still much more open to the GOP.

Whites with a degree are not a monolithic group interstate-wise

[Pericles]

The stakes would have to be really high to motivate the uninformed low propensity voters. It sounds more like the politically engaged people in the Dem base are just getting more and more scared. Hopefully the education divide means Democrats have less of a turnout disadvantage than they did in 2010 or 2014.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I don’t get why they’d see it as particularly existential any more than Republican voters would.

[MillennialModerate]

I think Dems will do fairly okay with turnout and holding loses low.

The problem is... the margin of error is insanely thin.

Statehood and HR1 would turn the 2022 Midterms from Likely R/Lean R to Tossup/Lean D

[SnowLabrador]

The stakes would have to be really high to motivate the uninformed low propensity voters. It sounds more like the politically engaged people in the Dem base are just getting more and more scared. Hopefully the education divide means Democrats have less of a turnout disadvantage than they did in 2010 or 2014.

The stakes ARE really high.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Dread from it, run from it, B I D E N M I D T E R M arrives all the same

[Meatball Ron]

All those previously apolitical wine moms in the suburbs with hr jobs who never really voted before  2018 and 2020 are going to be much less likely to give a crap about politics now that the orange cheeto they hate is gone

All those previously apolitical joe blows in rural areas who saw their steel job go bye-bye 15 years ago is going to be much less likely to give a crap about politics now that the orange god emperor they fellatio'd is gone.

Lmao

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I do tend to think base turnout will be pretty good for the Democrats, if nothing else (assuming things continue as they have so far).

[Sir Mohamed]

It's way too early to predict this. It remains to be seen whether increased turnout remains a phenomena beyond the Trump era. As for now, I don't think the 2022 election will be a 2014 style low turnout one, whether we can keep the energy alive.

[Xing]

I think turnout will at least be somewhat higher for Democrats than in 2010 or 2014, since I doubt everyone who got into politics in the Trump era (and doesn’t like Trump) will disengage. However, if Republican turnout is still significantly higher, that’s going to be a problem for Democrats all the same.

[UncleSam]

Love the Nate Silver atlas-level analysis.

The fact that Ds are consistently gaining among college educated voters means that there’s a chance this is true, at least to an extent. I think a 2014-esque win for Rs is unlikely. However, I’m also not seeing much in the way of statistical evidence that low propensity D voters will show up. Coalition changes have helped Ds in this regard but low propensity voters still make up a bigger portion of their base.

[Lognog]

Why would this election be different than the last 70+ years.

The two exception obviously being a year after 911 and the impeachment of Bill Clinton which was a big deal.

I get that COVID is huge, but I don't see it as a motivating factor two years from now.

Yes, I know the GOP has more working class voters and the dems have more college educated so of course it won't be 2014 low turnout. But, it'll probably be pretty low. The GOP will find one way or another to get each of its voters out: immigration, culture war, guns, or a combo.

I just think so many red avatars here are way too optimistic

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.fivethirtyeight.com/features/senate-rankings-may-2009-edition/

[If my soul was made of stone]

https://www.fivethirtyeight.com/features/senate-rankings-may-2009-edition/

A Jim Bunning retirement would help Republicans — but perhaps not as much as you’d think in a state where Democrats still have a significant registration advantage.

Lincoln raised $1.7 million in the first quarter, which may further reduce the mostly-theoretical possibility that Republicans decide to mount a serious challenge to her.

Amazing.

[Roll Roons]

https://www.fivethirtyeight.com/features/senate-rankings-may-2009-edition/

A Jim Bunning retirement would help Republicans — but perhaps not as much as you’d think in a state where Democrats still have a significant registration advantage.

Lincoln raised $1.7 million in the first quarter, which may further reduce the mostly-theoretical possibility that Republicans decide to mount a serious challenge to her.

Amazing.

More gems:

(Missouri) increasingly feels like a lean Democratic race.

A Republican comeback is unlikely if the uber-conservative Pat Toomey is the Republican nominee.

A nice 1Q fundraising haul by Dorgan reduces the already-slim chance that popular GOP governor John Hoeven might decide to challenge him.

Also Indiana was seen as one of the safest. And Lol at Toomey being considered "uber-conservative".

Moral of the story: Politics can be VERY unpredictable.

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.fivethirtyeight.com/features/senate-rankings-may-2009-edition/

A Jim Bunning retirement would help Republicans — but perhaps not as much as you’d think in a state where Democrats still have a significant registration advantage.

Lincoln raised $1.7 million in the first quarter, which may further reduce the mostly-theoretical possibility that Republicans decide to mount a serious challenge to her.

Amazing.

More gems:

(Missouri) increasingly feels like a lean Democratic race.

A Republican comeback is unlikely if the uber-conservative Pat Toomey is the Republican nominee.

A nice 1Q fundraising haul by Dorgan reduces the already-slim chance that popular GOP governor John Hoeven might decide to challenge him.

Also Indiana was seen as one of the safest. And Lol at Toomey being considered "uber-conservative".

Moral of the story: Politics can be VERY unpredictable.

The Missouri prediction was really dumb given the fact that Democrats barely won that race in a year like 2006 and that seat in question was held by the republicans

[OSR stands with Israel]

Love the Nate Silver atlas-level analysis.

The fact that Ds are consistently gaining among college educated voters means that there’s a chance this is true, at least to an extent. I think a 2014-esque win for Rs is unlikely. However, I’m also not seeing much in the way of statistical evidence that low propensity D voters will show up. Coalition changes have helped Ds in this regard but low propensity voters still make up a bigger portion of their base.

Some atlas threads from 2009:


https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=94194.0

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=95338.0;viewResults


Some atlas threads from 2005:


https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=21417.0