A guide to all the seante races in 06.

[MissCatholic]

ARIZONA: Democrats will say Republican senator Jon Kyl is vulnerable, but he isn't.

CALIFORNIA: A Field Poll in February showed 53 percent of Californians "inclined" to reelect Democratic senator Dianne Feinstein, including 33 percent of Republicans. Next.

CONNECTICUT: Democratic senator Joe Lieberman's job-approval rating among Republicans (72 percent) is higher than it is among members of his own party (66 percent), according to a recent Quinnipiac poll. Will the Greens at least put up a candidate?

FLORIDA: Democratic senator Bill Nelson is a big, fat target for Republicans — neither his approval ratings nor his reelect numbers are especially healthy in this more-red-than-blue state — and the GOP's bench is deep. Looking good in very early polling is Rep. Katherine Harris, who became a household name during the 2000 election controversy. One or more of the candidates now running for governor might switch to the Senate race. The name of retired general Tommy Franks is heard as well.

MARYLAND: The departure of Democratic senator Paul Sarbanes creates an open seat and the GOP may be competitive in this blue state if lieutenant governor Michael Steele decides to run. A recent poll by Potomac Survey Research shows him trailing former NAACP head Kweisi Mfume and Rep. Ben Cardin but leading Rep. Chris Van Hollen. Each of these match-ups is tight, however, and Steele would excite the GOP nationally.

MASSACHUSETTS: Remember how Mitt Romney sort of gave Democratic senator Ted Kennedy a scare in 1994? Well, he lost by 16 points. That's the closest race JFK's kid brother has run in four decades, and there's no reason to think 2006 will be any closer.

MICHIGAN: As a first-term senator, Democrat Debbie Stabenow should find herself vulnerable to a Republican challenge. But the GOP's top candidates are staying on the sidelines, in the belief that they're better off waiting for 2008, when they assume Democratic senator Carl Levin will head into retirement. Nationally, Republicans would love to see a potential self-funder, such as Domino's executive David Brandon, jump in — not so much because they think he'll win, but because they believe he would free up cash for more competitive contests. Another possible candidate is Jane Abraham, the wife of the senator Stabenow beat in 2000.

MINNESOTA: With former GOP senator Rod Grams announcing that he won't run for the seat of retiring Democrat Mark Dayton, the Republican primary field is now clear for congressman Mark Kennedy. Think about it: Republicans cheering on a Kennedy. This one, of course, isn't related to that one. Surprisingly, Democrats are having trouble finding a top-notch opponent. (Maybe they think there really is a relation.) This is a very good pickup opportunity for the GOP, and it keeps looking better.

MISSOURI: Democrats are scrambling for a candidate who will give Republican senator Jim Talent a difficult reelection. One interesting possibility: Robin Carnahan, the recently elected secretary of state whose late father was governor and whose mother was the incumbent Talent beat to acquire the seat he now holds. But this may turn out to be the Democrats' Michigan — a place where they think they ought to have a chance against a first-term incumbent, but fail to field the right candidate.

MONTANA: This could be a dark-horse race for Democrats. The incumbent, Republican senator Conrad Burns, is less popular than his Democrat counterpart, Sen. Max Baucus. State auditor John Morrison says he'll take on Burns.

NEBRASKA: Democratic senator Ben Nelson breathed a big sigh of relief when President Bush tapped Gov. Mike Johanns — a possible challenger, and a very strong one — to become secretary of agriculture. Republicans once had high hopes here, and they've by no means abandoned the idea of winning, but the odds are looking longer.

NEW JERSEY: The key question here involves Democratic senator Jon Corzine's bid to become governor this year. If he wins, his seat in the Senate will become available. If he loses, Republicans will consider him battered and weakened. Likely Democratic candidates include congressman Rob Andrews and Bob Menendez; on the GOP side, there's state senator Tom Kean Jr.

NEW MEXICO: Democratic senator Jeff Bingaman is a popular incumbent. Among Republicans, congresswoman Heather Wilson possibly could provide an interesting challenge — but this would require her to quit a competitive House district that the GOP might lose. Denny Hastert won't want her to do that. Moreover, she's not the type of candidate who would excite conservatives, which is probably a prerequisite for beating Bingaman in an upset.

NEW YORK: A majority of New Yorkers say they're ready to reelect Sen. Hillary Clinton, according a Marist College poll earlier this month. She trounces potential GOP foes, from Gov. George Pataki to former Rep. Rick Lazio, with one exception: Rudy Giuliani runs slightly ahead of her, 49 percent to 47 percent. Odds of Giuliani actually declaring his candidacy: slim to none.

NORTH DAKOTA: Democratic senator Kent Conrad will face a tough fight if Gov. John Hoeven, a Republican, decides to challenge him.

OHIO: Democrats are keeping Republican senator Mike DeWine on their watch list, but they'll need to track down a lot of missing votes to oust him.

PENNSYLVANIA: Republican senator Rick Santorum is the top target for Democrats, and several polls show him trailing state treasurer Bob Casey Jr. One survey from a couple of weeks ago had Casey ahead by 14 points — seemingly too wide a margin to be credible, but certainly not welcome news for the incumbent. This may become the closest and most-watched race in America.

RHODE ISLAND: Wouldn't it be cool if John Bolton could run against Republican senator Lincoln Chafee in a primary? As it turns out, Chafee may face Cranston mayor Stephen Laffey, who hopes to become the Pat Toomey of 2006. Among Democrats, challengers include former attorney general Sheldon Whitehouse (what a name for a politico!) and secretary of state Matt Brown.

TENNESSEE: Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist isn't running for reelection, and Republicans stand a better-than-even chance of holding the seat. Their candidates currently include former congressman Ed Bryant, Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker, and Rep. Van Hilleary. Among Democrats, the favorite probably is congressman Harold Ford Jr. Bonus question: Does the rise of Sen. Barack Obama take some of the shine off Ford's bright-young-thing mojo?

TEXAS: All eyes are on Republican senator Kay Bailey Hutchison, who is mulling over a primary challenge against Gov. Rick Perry. If she decides not to seek reelection to the Senate, a lot of Republicans may line up to succeed her. At this early point, the smart money might be on Rep. Henry Bonilla of San Antonio.

VERMONT: The retirement of "independent" senator Jim Jeffords creates an open-seat opportunity for Republicans, but only if newly elected governor Jim Douglas declares. He'll probably decide this summer. Meanwhile, Democrats are rallying behind socialist congressman Bernie Sanders, another "independent" (who has not yet formally announced). Isn't it at least a little bit embarrassing for DNC chair Howard Dean that he can't get an official Democrat to run for the Senate in his home state?

VIRGINIA: There's one Democrat who could give Republican senator George Allen a genuine challenge: Gov. Mark Warner, who can't run for reelection this year. Then again, Warner's gubernatorial legacy is a hefty tax increase and he's possibly hoping that the 2008 Democratic presidential nominee will pick him as a running mate. A loss to Allen in 2006 wouldn't look good on his resume.

WASHINGTON: Democratic senator Maria Cantwell barely defeated Sen. Slade Gorton in 2000, and her reelection numbers are best described as fair to middling. This is a blue state and she's the incumbent, which makes her the favorite against just about anybody. Republicans are waiting for Dino Rossi to decide whether he wants to run — and Rossi is still waiting for his challenge to last year's gubernatorial race, which he apparently lost by a handful of votes, to make its way through the courts.

WEST VIRGINIA: If Democratic senator Robert Byrd proposed naming West Virginia after himself, it's possible that most of his constituents would say that's just fine with them. The man won't be defeated, even though a recent poll raised some GOP eyebrows: Tested against Rep. Shelly Capito in March, he led by only 10 points.

WISCONSIN: Democratic senator Herb Kohl looks safe and sound, though there's an outside chance a candidate such as former congressman Mark Neumann could give him a race.

[Joe Kakistocracy]

Here's my prediction:

AZ: Republican hold.
CA: Democratic hold.
CT: Democratic hold.
FL: Republican pick-up.
MD: Close, but Democratic hold.
MA: Democratic hold.
MI: Democratic hold.
MN: Republican pick-up.
MO: Republican hold.
MT: Close, but Democratic pick-up.
NE: Democratic hold.
NJ: Democratic hold.
NM: Democratic hold.
NY: Democratic hold.
ND: Democratic hold, but toss-up if Hoeven joins the race.
OH: Republican hold.
PA: Democratic pick-up (sorry Phil).
RI: "Republican" hold.
TN: Republican hold.
TX: Republican hold.
VT: Independent hold. (exchange Jeffords for Sanders)
VA: Republican hold.
WA: Democratic hold.
WV: Democratic hold.
WI: Democratic hold.


110th Senate break-down:
Republican: 55
Democratic: 44
Independent: 1

[Beet]

After 2006 the Florida and Texas Republicans will both hold all statewide offices, have commanding majorities both legislatures, and be GOP in presidential elections. That is the 2nd and 4th largest states in the nation! The only state that is Democratic in that way is New Jersey. Although Florida and Texas also share the distinction of having been governed by Bushes.

[TheresNoMoney]

I think Nelson will keep his seat in FL.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

After 2006 the Florida and Texas Republicans will both hold all statewide offices, have commanding majorities both legislatures, and be GOP in presidential elections. That is the 2nd and 4th largest states in the nation! The only state that is Democratic in that way is New Jersey. Although Florida and Texas also share the distinction of having been governed by Bushes.

After 2006:
In NY, all the statewide offices will be Democratic, although the gerrymandered state Senate may be still be Republican.
I'd give 50/50 odds on all the CA statewide offices being Democratic.

[AuH2O]

lol miss "catholic" strikes again, though I have no idea if "she" wrote that "analysis" or not.

Nelson (FL) is in trouble and Nelson (NE) will probably face a legit opponent in Gov. Heineman, whose hand is being forced by the unbeatable Tom Osborne. Generally speaking, the picture should get bleaker for Democrats as their problems mount-- most of the close races are on their turf.

[Jake]

The only race I see as a pickup for either party at this early stage is PA. Others could change depending on who the opponent/s are.

[Keystone Phil]

PA: Democratic pick-up (sorry Phil).

I've admitted in the past that it's more likely to go Casey's way.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

FYI, this analysis is quoted from the National Review.

[Erc]

AZ: REP Hold.
CA: DEM Hold.
CT: DEM Hold.
FL: Should be a major target, but with few viable candidates up at the moment, this still leans slightly to Nelson.
MD: Leans slightly towards the Democrat, depending on who they pick.
MA: DEM Hold.
MI: Leans Dem.
MN: Toss-up, with the smallest of advantages for Kennedy atm.
MO: REP Hold (Dems, stop kidding yourself here).
MT: Leans Rep.
NE: DEM Hold, due to Bush's asinine decision to pick Johanns as Ag Sec'y.
NJ: Slight lean to Kean.
NM: DEM Hold (barring a surprise retirement).
NY: DEM Hold
ND: Toss-up if Hoeven, DEM Hold if not.
OH: REP Hold
PA: Leans Dem.
RI: At this stage: toss-up.
TN: Leans strongly Republican.
TX: REP Hold.
VT: IND(SOC) Hold.
VA: Lean Rep if Warner, REP Hold if not.
WA: Leans strongly Democrat.
WV: DEM Hold, barring a sudden stroke.
WI: DEM Hold, barring Tommy Thompson.

Which gives a likely NJ-PA exchange...and more targets for the Republicans (MN, FL, MD, possibly ND) than for the Democrats (RI, [MO/MT/TN are long shots]).

My prediction remains:
Rep: 56
Dem: 43
Ind: 1

[Joe Kakistocracy]

PA: Democratic pick-up (sorry Phil).

I've admitted in the past that it's more likely to go Casey's way.

Yeah, I know, I meant that in the "sorry to rub it in yet again" kinda way.

[Moooooo]

This is how I see it as of right now...

Safe Dem:

CA:  Safe-Dem
CT:  Safe-Dem
HI:  Safe-Dem
MA:  Safe-Dem
NY:  Safe-Dem
WV: Safe-Dem

ND: Safe-Dem (If Governor Hoeven decides to roll the dice, this race becomes a toss-up or slight lean-Rep.)

WI: Safe-Dem (Tommy Thompson was popular, but not popular enough to knock off Kohl.  If Thompson chooses to give it a whirl, this race becomes Lean-Dem.)

Lean-Dem

DE:  Lean-Dem
MD:  Lean-Dem
MI:  Lean-Dem
NE:  Lean-Dem
NM:  Lean-Dem

FL:  Lean-Dem.  (Harris is by far the weakest GOP candidate and she's leading every primary poll I've seen.)

PA:  Lean-Dem (As time passes this race will become a tossup.)

WA:  Lean-Dem (She's safer than her numbers show.)

VT:  Lean-Ind (Sanders will be voting with the Democrats, so I placed him here.)

TossUp:

MN:  TossUp (I have yet to see a strong-Democrat emerge.)

Safe Rep:

AZ:  Safe-Rep
IN:  Safe-Rep
ME:  Safe-Rep
NV:  Safe-Rep
OH: Safe-Rep
UT:  Safe-Rep
WY:  Safe-Rep

MS:  Safe-Rep (If Lott retires and Atty. General Mike Moore (D) decides to run, this race will become a Lean-Rep.)

TX: Safe-Rep (If Hutchison decides to run for Governor this seat will move into the Lean-Rep category.)

VA:  Safe-Rep (If Governor Warner opts out of a presidential run and decides to press his luck at this seat... The race becomes Lean-Rep.)

Lean Rep:

MO:  Lean-Rep (Caskill is polling within the margin of error.  Atty General Jay Nixon is also capable of making this a close race.)

MT: Leans Rep. (Burns is knee deep in scandal, his re-elect numbers are pathetic, and his approval ratings are dropping like a brick.  As the race wears on this will be come a toss-up.  Senate President Jon Tester is obviously the strongest candidate, but State Auditor John Morrison is definitley capable of knocking off Burns.)

NJ: Lean-Rep (Depending on who Corzine appoints this race could become a tossup or light lean-Dem.)

RI: Lean-Rep (No strong-Democrat has emerged, and Im not sure one ever will.)

TN: Lean-Rep (Ford has star power, but I doubt that alone will be enough to push him over the top.)

[Alcon]

How recent is this? Rossi stated that he is not running a while ago.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I don't know, but I saw it first last Friday.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

NM:  Lean-Dem

NJ: Lean-Rep (This race will become a tossup once Corzine appoints his successor.)

I think NM is a lot stronger than Lean Dem at this point.

Also, I don't understand your NJ comment.  Do you mean it will be Lean-Rep if Corzine loses the Governor's race?

[Keystone Phil]

NM:  Lean-Dem

NJ: Lean-Rep (This race will become a tossup once Corzine appoints his successor.)

Also, I don't understand your NJ comment.  Do you mean it will be Lean-Rep if Corzine loses the Governor's race?

It's actually a tossup-slight lean Republican either way. Tom Kean, Jr. will be a very strong candidate. If Corzine wins the Gov. race, he'll likely appoint a weak replacement (one of his allies) such as Frank Pallone or Bob Menendez. If Corzine loses the Gov. race (which he is favored to win), that will be trouble for him in his Senate re-election run.

[Moooooo]

What I meant to say is... Depending on who Corzine appoints.  If he appoints a Rep. from South Jersey like Andrews I would consider this race a tossup or slight lean-Dem.  We're talking about New Jersey here, not Pennsylvania.  Daddy's name can only carry you so far.

[Keystone Phil]

What I meant to say is... Depending on who Corzine appoints.  If he appoints a Rep. from South Jersey like Andrews I would consider this race a tossup or slight lean-Dem.  We're talking about New Jersey here, not Pennsylvania.  Daddy's name can only carry you so far.

Daddy's name in NJ is more powerful than Daddy's name in PA. Hate to break that to you.

If Andrews is chosen to fill the seat (if Corzine becomes Governor) then we'll have a tossup or lean Dem race. However, I don't see any other strong candidate for the Dems. And if Corzine picks Menendez, it's over for them.

[Moooooo]

Daddy's name in NJ is more powerful than Daddy's name in PA. Hate to break that to you.

In PA Casey has been tested at the statewide level and come through, overwhelmingly.  Kean has never ran statewide, hell he's only a state Senator.

[Keystone Phil]

Daddy's name in NJ is more powerful than Daddy's name in PA. Hate to break that to you.

  Kean has never ran statewide, hell he's only a state Senator.

That wasn't a problem for the Democratic Hero of 2004 - Senator Obama. 

His first test will be in 2006 and it will be a success.

[Moooooo]

That wasn't a problem for the Democratic Hero of 2004 - Senator Obama. 

His first test will be in 2006 and it will be a success.

This Kean fellah' is no Barack Obama.  He does'nt have the star power and media attention that follows.  Plus, Obama was running against Keyes.  Obama's first test will be in 2010.

[Keystone Phil]

That wasn't a problem for the Democratic Hero of 2004 - Senator Obama. 

His first test will be in 2006 and it will be a success.

This Kean fellah is no Barack Obama.  He does'nt have the star power and media attention that follows.  Plus, Obama was running against Keyes.  Obama's first test will be in 2010.

He doesn't have the star power or media attention....yet. During the primary, Obama was a nobody in national politics. It was only after Ryan dropped out of the race did Obama receive serious attention. Kean can be the GOP's Obama. It's foolish for you to say that he can't be when we're still a year away.

[Moooooo]

He doesn't have the star power or media attention....yet. During the primary, Obama was a nobody in national politics. It was only after Ryan dropped out of the race did Obama receive serious attention. Kean can be the GOP's Obama. It's foolish for you to say that he can't be when we're still a year away.

Unless his skin color changes...

[Keystone Phil]

He doesn't have the star power or media attention....yet. During the primary, Obama was a nobody in national politics. It was only after Ryan dropped out of the race did Obama receive serious attention. Kean can be the GOP's Obama. It's foolish for you to say that he can't be when we're still a year away.

Unless his skin color changes...

You mean to tell me a white candidate cannot receive the media attention or star power that Obama had in 2004? Do you know of U.S. Senator John McCain? 

[AuH2O]

Since NJ Dem leaders are on tape saying they own Corzine, expect him to appoint a hack like Menendez. Say hello the Senate's youngest member.