Will Florida be within 5 points?
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April 10, 2021, 01:58:08 PM

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2024 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE, ON Progressive)
  Will Florida be within 5 points?
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Question: Will Florida be within a 5 point margin?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Total Voters: 81

Author Topic: Will Florida be within 5 points?  (Read 700 times)
EastOfEden
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« Reply #25 on: April 08, 2021, 03:16:16 AM »

Yes. I'll even go so far as to say I'll be very surprised if it's not within 3 points. For now, I believe 2020 was an anomaly.

It's clear, though, that something has changed in Florida. For some reason, between 2016 and 2018, it went from consistently being about 3 points to the right of the nation to consistently being about 7 points to the right of the nation, and it's not really clear to me why.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #26 on: April 08, 2021, 09:59:29 AM »

The Gaetz story is gonna hurt DeSantis chances in 2022/2024, Gaetz was the main reason why DeSantis got Elected, he call Gillium a Socialisic Afro American that would bring crime back to FL

Rubio is not affected by it, he doesn't praise Rush Limbaugh
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #27 on: April 08, 2021, 01:37:08 PM »

Yes. I'll even go so far as to say I'll be very surprised if it's not within 3 points. For now, I believe 2020 was an anomaly.

It's clear, though, that something has changed in Florida. For some reason, between 2016 and 2018, it went from consistently being about 3 points to the right of the nation to consistently being about 7 points to the right of the nation, and it's not really clear to me why.
Bc you’re a hack to you party? And you don’t want Florida to be a red state when it clearly is trending that way-fast.
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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« Reply #28 on: April 08, 2021, 02:29:22 PM »

Yes. I'll even go so far as to say I'll be very surprised if it's not within 3 points. For now, I believe 2020 was an anomaly.

It's clear, though, that something has changed in Florida. For some reason, between 2016 and 2018, it went from consistently being about 3 points to the right of the nation to consistently being about 7 points to the right of the nation, and it's not really clear to me why.
Bc you’re a hack to you party? And you don’t want Florida to be a red state when it clearly is trending that way-fast.

?
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #29 on: April 08, 2021, 02:36:41 PM »

Yes. I'll even go so far as to say I'll be very surprised if it's not within 3 points. For now, I believe 2020 was an anomaly.

It's clear, though, that something has changed in Florida. For some reason, between 2016 and 2018, it went from consistently being about 3 points to the right of the nation to consistently being about 7 points to the right of the nation, and it's not really clear to me why.
I think FL is just destined to be Lean R. The state voted 5-7% to the left of the nation in 2010/14, and 3-4% to the right in 2004/08/12/16, and 7-8% to the right in 2018/20.
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EastwoodS
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« Reply #30 on: April 08, 2021, 02:38:32 PM »

Yes. I'll even go so far as to say I'll be very surprised if it's not within 3 points. For now, I believe 2020 was an anomaly.

It's clear, though, that something has changed in Florida. For some reason, between 2016 and 2018, it went from consistently being about 3 points to the right of the nation to consistently being about 7 points to the right of the nation, and it's not really clear to me why.
Bc you’re a hack to you party? And you don’t want Florida to be a red state when it clearly is trending that way-fast.

?
I’m getting pissed off that Republicans aren’t allowed to claim new states into their column yet Democrats are saying “we’re expanding our MAp” they now think GA and AZ are theirs now and TX will be theirs tomm BUT GOD ING FORBID WE’RE ALLOWED TO CLAIM FLORIDA OR IOWA OR OHIO.
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The Daily Beagle
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« Reply #31 on: April 08, 2021, 02:47:10 PM »

Yes. I'll even go so far as to say I'll be very surprised if it's not within 3 points. For now, I believe 2020 was an anomaly.

It's clear, though, that something has changed in Florida. For some reason, between 2016 and 2018, it went from consistently being about 3 points to the right of the nation to consistently being about 7 points to the right of the nation, and it's not really clear to me why.
Bc you’re a hack to you party? And you don’t want Florida to be a red state when it clearly is trending that way-fast.

Maybe. It was like 13 points to the right of the nation as recently as 1988. The reason I wouldn't give up on Florida yet as a Democrat is because

1) The isn't that much more room for the large conservative Leisure Class to grow that much more.
2) The lockdowns scared a lot of people in the tourism industry away from Democrats when Republicans offered to ignore he pandemic
3) We don't know how the new minimum wage will change the dynamics of the state. Maybe it will make it harder to support a large Leisure Class or change who employees people in the state.
4) On the local level, Democrats haven't really tried in Florida for a generation now. $100M over the course of 6 weeks isn't the same as $10M over the course of 6 months.

Then again, maybe Florida and Arizona/Georgia/Texas are switching places because

1) Immigration and Civil Rights aren't as big of issue to local minority communities as having an expansionist foreign policy or being "against socialism". Attitudes on things like abortion aren't as conservative as you think, however.
2) Maybe the COVID thing will be the reverse version of the Farm Crisis that only subsides over the course of 25+ years. In the 2020s and 2030s, Florida might be the unique conservative urban state the way Iowa was that weird liberal rural state.
3) Florida really isn't that "urban".
4) Some of Florida's minorities are miscategorized and many of them would pass as and otherwise consider themselves white except to maybe "own teh libz".
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #32 on: April 08, 2021, 08:13:05 PM »

The Florida/DeSantis threads are the most ridiculous ones on here lately.
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kwabbit
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« Reply #33 on: April 08, 2021, 11:28:45 PM »

I don't know how much DeSantis would benefit from FL being his home state, but maybe he gains 3 points of margin. If he's the nominee my baseline Florida prediction is R+8.

If he's not it's R+3.5. I think the Republican nominee will on average do a little better nationally but worse relatively in Florida. Trump was quite a good fit for the state, rural Whites and the Cubans both liked him, but I expect Dem investment to decrease here so that will counter the worse fit.
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EastOfEden
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« Reply #34 on: Today at 09:42:26 AM »

I’m getting pissed off that Republicans aren’t allowed to claim new states into their column yet Democrats are saying “we’re expanding our MAp” they now think GA and AZ are theirs now and TX will be theirs tomm BUT GOD ING FORBID WE’RE ALLOWED TO CLAIM FLORIDA OR IOWA OR OHIO.

I literally just said Florida has made a big move to the right but ok
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #35 on: Today at 11:15:15 AM »

Closer to 5 than 0, but yeah, I think it'll still be in the margin.
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DS0816
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« Reply #36 on: Today at 12:48:41 PM »

Will Florida be decided within a 5 point margin in 2024?

If Election 2024 ends up a Democratic hold for U.S. President…yes.

If Election 2024 ends up a Republican pickup for U.S. President…no.
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