Will Florida be within 5 points?
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  Will Florida be within 5 points?
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Question: Will Florida be within a 5 point margin?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Total Voters: 101

Author Topic: Will Florida be within 5 points?  (Read 2653 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: April 06, 2021, 09:13:45 PM »

Will Florida be decided within a 5 point margin in 2024?
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Real Texan Politics
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« Reply #1 on: April 06, 2021, 09:17:58 PM »

Yes but it'll be closer to 5 than 0. Maybe R+4?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2 on: April 06, 2021, 10:33:29 PM »

Unless the Republicans nominate a right-wing version of George McGovern the Democrats have no way of winning Florida by more than 5%. Democrats would have to lose the nationwide popular vote by 3% for Florida to go that far Republican.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #3 on: April 06, 2021, 10:40:18 PM »

Probably.  If not, it would almost certainly be a Republican victory.
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #4 on: April 06, 2021, 10:43:10 PM »

Yes (sane)
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David Hume
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« Reply #5 on: April 06, 2021, 10:46:37 PM »

If DeSantis is the nominee, he will win by 5+
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S019
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« Reply #6 on: April 07, 2021, 01:29:57 AM »

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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #7 on: April 07, 2021, 02:12:25 AM »

No. You'll see why
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Biden his time
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« Reply #8 on: April 07, 2021, 07:49:25 AM »
« Edited: April 07, 2021, 08:24:55 AM by Abdullah »

If there's any swing in Miami-Dade back to Democrats, then the idea of a Republican victory 5% of more in Florida is dead in the water.

It's my opinion that Miami-Dade has a good chance of making a swing to the left in 2024, so I chose "Yes"*.

Accounting for population growth in the exurban areas of the I-4 corridor, I think the margin could look something like R+3 or R+4.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #9 on: April 07, 2021, 08:09:19 AM »

LMAO, No. Exactly what kind of demographic swing will result in a FL +5 result ?.
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Motorcity
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« Reply #10 on: April 07, 2021, 08:12:11 AM »

Unless the Republicans nominate a right-wing version of George McGovern the Democrats have no way of winning Florida by more than 5%. Democrats would have to lose the nationwide popular vote by 3% for Florida to go that far Republican.
No?

Democrats won the national popular vote by 4.5%, but Trump won Florida by 3.6%

So, a Democrat who wins by 2% like Hillary did probably would lose Florida by 5%. That is like 52-47% so I can see that.
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #11 on: April 07, 2021, 08:21:42 AM »
« Edited: April 07, 2021, 09:11:38 AM by Oregon Eagle Politics »

If DeSantis is the nominee, Republicans will win but over 5. If it is someone else, no.
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SAAuthCapitalist
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« Reply #12 on: April 07, 2021, 09:07:34 AM »
« Edited: April 07, 2021, 10:33:12 AM by SAAuthCapitalist »

Probably not. Maybe if Mitt Romney was the nominee, sure, Florida might be competitive.

But any other half decent Republican wins Florida without much effort.
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Oregon Eagle Politics
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« Reply #13 on: April 07, 2021, 10:29:46 AM »

Probably not. Maybe if Mitt Romney was the nominee, sure.
Mitt Romney lost Florida in 2012. There are many stronger GOP candidates for the state.
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SAAuthCapitalist
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« Reply #14 on: April 07, 2021, 10:32:16 AM »

Probably not. Maybe if Mitt Romney was the nominee, sure.
Mitt Romney lost Florida in 2012. There are many stronger GOP candidates for the state.

That’s the point. Romney is a horrible candidate for Florida (and in general), and if he was the nominee, Florida might be competitive.

If it was most other Republicans, Florida probably will not be that competitive.
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Meatball Ron
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« Reply #15 on: April 07, 2021, 10:33:51 AM »

Unless the Republicans nominate a right-wing version of George McGovern the Democrats have no way of winning Florida by more than 5%. Democrats would have to lose the nationwide popular vote by 3% for Florida to go that far Republican.
No?

Democrats won the national popular vote by 4.5%, but Trump won Florida by 3.6%

So, a Democrat who wins by 2% like Hillary did probably would lose Florida by 5%. That is like 52-47% so I can see that.

But Hillary didn't lose by 5, she lost by a little over 1. Your post assumes uniform swing from 2020 / equally weak Latino performance in 2024, which is not impossible, but seems like a bold assumption this far out.
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Person Man
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« Reply #16 on: April 07, 2021, 11:05:44 AM »

Unless the Republicans nominate a right-wing version of George McGovern the Democrats have no way of winning Florida by more than 5%. Democrats would have to lose the nationwide popular vote by 3% for Florida to go that far Republican.
No?

Democrats won the national popular vote by 4.5%, but Trump won Florida by 3.6%

So, a Democrat who wins by 2% like Hillary did probably would lose Florida by 5%. That is like 52-47% so I can see that.

But Hillary didn't lose by 5, she lost by a little over 1. Your post assumes uniform swing from 2020 / equally weak Latino performance in 2024, which is not impossible, but seems like a bold assumption this far out.

The trends could reverse or they could accelerate. Either one is equally plausible. I'm skeptical of the sustainability of the continued growth of the Leisure Class in Florida and am skeptical that the COVID environment will be a permanent cultural fixture. However, local Democrats have been "hard to organize" for a very long and who knows how many more voters are stubborn Democrats in Republican-trending areas that will finally give in to peer pressure. Of course the big thing for Republicans, and its not just Cubans, is that a lot of the "ethnic/minority vote" are very aspirational in their voting.
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Motorcity
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« Reply #17 on: April 07, 2021, 11:06:47 AM »

Unless the Republicans nominate a right-wing version of George McGovern the Democrats have no way of winning Florida by more than 5%. Democrats would have to lose the nationwide popular vote by 3% for Florida to go that far Republican.
No?

Democrats won the national popular vote by 4.5%, but Trump won Florida by 3.6%

So, a Democrat who wins by 2% like Hillary did probably would lose Florida by 5%. That is like 52-47% so I can see that.

But Hillary didn't lose by 5, she lost by a little over 1. Your post assumes uniform swing from 2020 / equally weak Latino performance in 2024, which is not impossible, but seems like a bold assumption this far out.
Hillary won the national popular vote by 2.1%. She lost Florida by 1.2%

Biden won the national popular vote by 4.5%. He lost Florida by 3.4%


In 2018, Democrats won the national popular vote by 8.6% and the GOP won Florida by 0.4%

In both 2018 and 2020, Florida was 7-8% more to the right to the nation as a whole

Following that trend, if a Democrat wins the national popular vote by 2-3% than the GOP will probably win by 5%. And that is assuming the Democrats even contest Florida
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If my soul was made of stone
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« Reply #18 on: April 07, 2021, 12:15:22 PM »

About five points even seems like a logical result with what we know right now, unless the fabled "Hispanic pro-incumbent trends" hit hard.
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Meatball Ron
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« Reply #19 on: April 07, 2021, 12:48:09 PM »

Unless the Republicans nominate a right-wing version of George McGovern the Democrats have no way of winning Florida by more than 5%. Democrats would have to lose the nationwide popular vote by 3% for Florida to go that far Republican.
No?

Democrats won the national popular vote by 4.5%, but Trump won Florida by 3.6%

So, a Democrat who wins by 2% like Hillary did probably would lose Florida by 5%. That is like 52-47% so I can see that.

But Hillary didn't lose by 5, she lost by a little over 1. Your post assumes uniform swing from 2020 / equally weak Latino performance in 2024, which is not impossible, but seems like a bold assumption this far out.

The trends could reverse or they could accelerate. Either one is equally plausible. I'm skeptical of the sustainability of the continued growth of the Leisure Class in Florida and am skeptical that the COVID environment will be a permanent cultural fixture. However, local Democrats have been "hard to organize" for a very long and who knows how many more voters are stubborn Democrats in Republican-trending areas that will finally give in to peer pressure. Of course the big thing for Republicans, and its not just Cubans, is that a lot of the "ethnic/minority vote" are very aspirational in their voting.

Sure, I was just pointing out that Motorcity's post assumes uniform swing as fact, which is silly but also just not interesting or insightful analysis. I agree with everything you've said here.
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Meatball Ron
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« Reply #20 on: April 07, 2021, 12:49:20 PM »

Unless the Republicans nominate a right-wing version of George McGovern the Democrats have no way of winning Florida by more than 5%. Democrats would have to lose the nationwide popular vote by 3% for Florida to go that far Republican.
No?

Democrats won the national popular vote by 4.5%, but Trump won Florida by 3.6%

So, a Democrat who wins by 2% like Hillary did probably would lose Florida by 5%. That is like 52-47% so I can see that.

But Hillary didn't lose by 5, she lost by a little over 1. Your post assumes uniform swing from 2020 / equally weak Latino performance in 2024, which is not impossible, but seems like a bold assumption this far out.
Hillary won the national popular vote by 2.1%. She lost Florida by 1.2%

Biden won the national popular vote by 4.5%. He lost Florida by 3.4%


In 2018, Democrats won the national popular vote by 8.6% and the GOP won Florida by 0.4%

In both 2018 and 2020, Florida was 7-8% more to the right to the nation as a whole

Following that trend, if a Democrat wins the national popular vote by 2-3% than the GOP will probably win by 5%. And that is assuming the Democrats even contest Florida

Yes, I understand the math behind uniform swing, thank you. This is not a novel concept. I'd suggest reading The Daily Beagle's post for a more interesting commentary on why the trends could continue, or even accelerate, but could also reverse. Lots of counterveiling factors that make it a lot more nuanced than "muh XYZ points to the left/right of NPV"
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Blackacre
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« Reply #21 on: April 07, 2021, 01:14:28 PM »

Yes if the Republican nominee is anyone besides exactly Ron Desantis, no if it is him.
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Person Man
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« Reply #22 on: April 07, 2021, 01:49:17 PM »

Unless the Republicans nominate a right-wing version of George McGovern the Democrats have no way of winning Florida by more than 5%. Democrats would have to lose the nationwide popular vote by 3% for Florida to go that far Republican.
No?

Democrats won the national popular vote by 4.5%, but Trump won Florida by 3.6%

So, a Democrat who wins by 2% like Hillary did probably would lose Florida by 5%. That is like 52-47% so I can see that.

But Hillary didn't lose by 5, she lost by a little over 1. Your post assumes uniform swing from 2020 / equally weak Latino performance in 2024, which is not impossible, but seems like a bold assumption this far out.
Hillary won the national popular vote by 2.1%. She lost Florida by 1.2%

Biden won the national popular vote by 4.5%. He lost Florida by 3.4%


In 2018, Democrats won the national popular vote by 8.6% and the GOP won Florida by 0.4%

In both 2018 and 2020, Florida was 7-8% more to the right to the nation as a whole

Following that trend, if a Democrat wins the national popular vote by 2-3% than the GOP will probably win by 5%. And that is assuming the Democrats even contest Florida

Yes, I understand the math behind uniform swing, thank you. This is not a novel concept. I'd suggest reading The Daily Beagle's post for a more interesting commentary on why the trends could continue, or even accelerate, but could also reverse. Lots of counterveiling factors that make it a lot more nuanced than "muh XYZ points to the left/right of NPV"

Then there’s the new minimum wage’s affects and there could be incumbency coming up.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #23 on: April 07, 2021, 08:34:53 PM »

Yes, even if DeSantis — you know, the same guy who barely beat Andrew Gillum — is the nominee.
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Ron DeSantis enthusiast
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« Reply #24 on: April 08, 2021, 01:15:46 AM »

If DeSantis is the nominee it will be Safe R, with Trump it will be Likely R, any other generic republican it will be Lean R, but close to Tilt R
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