Idiot Move of the Week: DSCC dumps $1.6 Mil into AZ

[MarkWarner08]

Hotline On Call reports that the DSCC has reserved $1.64 in TV time in Tuscon and Phoenix. This move means that less money can go to Pennsylvania, Ohio, Rhode Island, Missouri, Montana, Tennessee, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, Washington and Maryland.

DSCC has also spent over $2m in Nebraska.  Is Chuck Schumer intentionally blowing his money, or is this part of a cynical attempt to prop up the DCCC by helping the Maxine Moul in Nebraska and Harry Mitchell and Gabrielle Giffords in Arizona?

[Sam Spade]

You know, just as a point, I cannot for the life figure out why the DSCC is spending a good chunk of money on AZ, when the candidate there (Peterson) has spent nearly $3,000,000 already and hasn't gained a bit in the polls.

Whereas at this same point, we have a challenger in VA in Webb who has been very cash-poor, still is, and can barely fund a credible campaign, gets about the same percentage as Peterson is getting, if not more and is totally being ignored by the DSCC in terms of cash allotment.

This is especially strange, considering a rule of thumb in politics is, if you've spent a lot of money as a challenger and haven't moved up in the polls, a lot more money is likely not to get you anywhere.  Whereas, if you haven't spent anything as challenger, if some funds are actually spent, you could see a simple name recognition bounce.

[Eraserhead]

good.  We're on the verge of picking up AZ.

Uh...not really but I wouldn't exactly call it an idotic move either. We have to at least try to find a sixth seat somewhere.

It will also be interesting to see the post-gaffe polls in Virginia since it is getting quite a bit of attention although I think it is pretty unlikely that much about the race will change from it.

[TheresNoMoney]

I am fine with it, although I hope they don't spend any more money here. A good Democratic turnout will help Giffords and Mitchell in their congressional races.

I honestly think VA might be our best chance for a 6th seat in the Senate.

[Keystone Phil]

Massive freedom fighters for wasting funds.

[Alcon]

good.  We're on the verge of picking up AZ.

And, while you're busy with a maybe in Arizona, you may very well lose a myriad of other states in close elections.  Wouldn't that suck?

[MarkWarner08]

good.  We're on the verge of picking up AZ.

And, while you're busy with a maybe in Arizona, you may very well lose a myriad of other states in close elections.  Wouldn't that suck?

Yay, we won Arizona, oop, we lost Washington, Minnesota, New Jersey and Maryland.


Tennesse followed by Virginia and then by a long distance Virginia are the Dems best "6th seat" opportunities.  If only we'd won that 2004 Kentucky Senate race we wouldn't have to be looking at the Southeast and the Southwest to pick up the Senate.


Schumer needs to cancel this ad buy and move the money over to Tennesse and Virginia.  This must be done NOW!

[Eraserhead]

good.  We're on the verge of picking up AZ.

And, while you're busy with a maybe in Arizona, you may very well lose a myriad of other states in close elections.  Wouldn't that suck?

Yay, we won Arizona, oop, we lost Washington, Minnesota, New Jersey and Maryland.


Tennesse followed by Virginia and then by a long distance Virginia are the Dems best "6th seat" opportunities.  If only we'd won that 2004 Kentucky Senate race we wouldn't have to be looking at the Southeast and the Southwest to pick up the Senate.


Schumer needs to cancel this ad buy and move the money over to Tennesse and Virginia.  This must be done NOW!

Dems could eat babies live on television this year and still win Minnesota, New Jersey and Maryland (as long as Cardin wins the primary).

[CARLHAYDEN]

good.  We're on the verge of picking up AZ.

Uh, you really need to stop ingesting the substance that is causing your delusions.

[WalterMitty]

how much money did the john kerry campaign spend in arkansas, louisiana, and  virginia?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I wonder if this has more to do with trying to have a trickle down effect on the House races there. That's what I hope at least. I agree if you want to go for a long shot 6th seat Virginia is the one.

[Tender Branson]

1,6 Mio. into AZ, with Pederson 20% behind Kyl ? That´s really a stupid move. Wouldn´t it be better spent in Virginia ? Webb is doing much better against Allen than Pederson against Kyl. Webb is within 10 points. They should forget AZ, NV and TN right now and focus on prevailing in MT, MN, MO, OH, NJ, CT and RI and maybe VA.

[nini2287]

Dems could eat babies live on television this year and still win Minnesota, New Jersey and Maryland (as long as Cardin wins the primary).

MN and NJ?  Haha.  NJ is a tossup and MN is eversoslightly leaning towards the Dems.

[MarkWarner08]

I just went to the DSCC website and discovered they've changed the eight races their covering. Previously, they showed MO, PA, RI, MT, OH, TN, AZ and VA as the top eight Senate races. Now they've replaced AZ, VA and TN with NJ, MN and WA. Notice anything difference? The switched three fringe pick-ups with three must hold Dem Senate seats. The balance of races they’re watching has shifted from 8-0 GOP to 5-3 GOP. Is the DSCC hedging its bets, or are they essentially conceding the Senate to the GOP?

[Sam Spade]

Dem chances beyond the big Five:

VA>TN>>AZ>>>>>>>>>>>>>>NV

Next.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Dems could eat babies live on television this year and still win Minnesota, New Jersey and Maryland (as long as Cardin wins the primary).

MN and NJ?  Haha.  NJ is a tossup and MN is eversoslightly leaning towards the Dems.

it's a bit more than slightly.

[opebo]

Dem chances beyond the big Five:

VA>TN>>AZ>>>>>>>>>>>>>>NV

Interesting!  I think it is:

VA>AZ>>>NV>>>>>TN

Because of the racism of the native Tennesseean.  I also think you tend to slightly understimate the unpredictability that is increasing in NV.. though it will still of course probably vote for Ensign.

[MarkWarner08]

Dem chances beyond the big Five:

VA>TN>>AZ>>>>>>>>>>>>>>NV

Interesting!  I think it is:

VA>AZ>>>NV>>>>>TN

Because of the racism of the native Tennesseean.  I also think you tend to slightly understimate the unpredictability that is increasing in NV.. though it will still of course probably vote for Ensign.

Bob Corker is unpopular with the GOP base, he raised taxes, flip-flopped on abortion and he faces a charismatic Democrat who is socially conservative. Democrats candidate and will win the seat with national money. Pull the trigger, DSCC!

Did  I mention the reason Schumer is hyping Pederson is becuase he's a self-funder. Why did the DSCC buy ad time for a man who funding his own race?

[Virginian87]

I can't figure out for the life of me why the DSCC is almost completely ignoring Jim Webb.  They keep writing off Virginia as a safe Republican state when we have a chance here.  If Webb could close the gap even slightly in funds, I guarantee his poll numbers would pull closer to Allen's.  I don't know much about Peterson, but in my opinion Virginia would be a much better place for this cash.

[Rob]

Webb and Ford need this money. Has the DSCC gone insane, or do they know something we don't?

Damn it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

"Gone insane" implies that they were ever sane in the first place

This does seem like an... interesting... no... wait... a bold decision...

[DownWithTheLeft]

There is no way AZ is safer for the Dems than NJ, MN, MD, or WA.  Doesn't do much good winning AZ if they lose two of those four.  Hell, the GOP has a better chance of gaining VT than the Dems do AZ. 

[Wiz in Wis]

Hell, the GOP has a better chance of gaining VT than the Dems do AZ. 

Um, No

[Alcon]

Hell, the GOP has a better chance of gaining VT than the Dems do AZ. 

I have to agree with Wiz.  No way.

[MasterJedi]

Good for the Dems, I love when they waste their money.