Idiot Move of the Week: DSCC dumps $1.6 Mil into AZ

[Jake]

There is no way AZ is safer for the Dems than NJ, MN, MD, or WA.  Doesn't do much good winning AZ if they lose two of those four.  Hell, the GOP has a better chance of gaining VT than the Dems do AZ. 

Vermont is not vulnerable in any circumstance. Arizona could be vulnerable, so no.

Right now, in terms of vulnerability for the incumbent (if running) or party (if not):
1. PA - No question here, Santorum hasn't led yet this year in any poll.
2. RI  - Chafee has a tough primary and general election fight on his hands.
3. MT - Burns hasn't been polling well at all.
4. CT - We'll have to see more polls on this one.
5. OH - DeWine hasn't been polling well at all.
6. NJ  - All polls have this one super close with high undecideds. Pretty much an open seat too.
7. MO - Polls are close, though Talent has the money advantage.
8. MN - Simply because it's an open seat race.
<gap>
9. TN  - Ford could win if a lot of factors go his way.
10. VA - Allen seems determined to give Webb ammo. Webb needs money though.
11. WA - McGavick's been polling pretty decently. We'll see.
<gap>
12. NV - Not close yet, probably won't be.
13. MD - Open seat where Cardin is winning the primary fight. This jumps up into the first group if Mfume takes the nomination.
14. AZ - Kyl has led solidly in every poll and has the incumbent advantage.
15. NE - No reason not to re-elect Nelson, but on here because of the state lean.

None of the rest are vulnerable at all.

[TheresNoMoney]

I can't figure out for the life of me why the DSCC is almost completely ignoring Jim Webb.  They keep writing off Virginia as a safe Republican state when we have a chance here. 

Good lord man, it's only August. I'm sure the DSCC will pump some money into this race as the election draws closer.

VA is definitely one of the 8 states they're targeting.

[TheresNoMoney]

BTW, Bill Clinton is going to VA to campaign and hold a fundraiser for James Webb:

Clinton to help Webb in Senate campaign

[Eraserhead]

Dems could eat babies live on television this year and still win Minnesota, New Jersey and Maryland (as long as Cardin wins the primary).

MN and NJ?  Haha.  NJ is a tossup and MN is eversoslightly leaning towards the Dems.

it's a bit more than slightly.

A lot more then slightly. I was once worried about that race but I'm not any longer. As for the New Jersey race being as toss up? LOL. Kean is down about 7 points, the Democratic machine in the state is virtually unstoppable, Kean did terrible in the last debate and its horrible year for Republicans in general. Come on.

[Eraserhead]

There is no way AZ is safer for the Dems than NJ, MN, MD, or WA.  Doesn't do much good winning AZ if they lose two of those four.  Hell, the GOP has a better chance of gaining VT than the Dems do AZ. 

Good god are you serious?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Sanders' worst poll: +21
Kyl's worst poll: +7

enough said.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Sanders' worst poll: +21
Kyl's worst poll: +7

enough said.

The so called polls showing Kyl with less than a twelve point lead are all jokes.

[Alcon]

Sanders' worst poll: +21
Kyl's worst poll: +7

enough said.

The so called polls showing Kyl with less than a twelve point lead are all jokes.

If he has a 12-point lead and the MoE is +/-3, they could still be within MoE.  Calling them "jokes" would be statistically ignorant.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Sanders' worst poll: +21
Kyl's worst poll: +7

enough said.

The so called polls showing Kyl with less than a twelve point lead are all jokes.

21 is still a lot more than 12.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Sanders' worst poll: +21
Kyl's worst poll: +7

enough said.

The so called polls showing Kyl with less than a twelve point lead are all jokes.

If he has a 12-point lead and the MoE is +/-3, they could still be within MoE.  Calling them "jokes" would be statistically ignorant.

Alcon,

I realize that for whatever reason you have consistently been hostile and lacking in any measure or responsibility.

If you go back a few years, you will see long discussions I had with Vorlon on the pollsters.

One of the polls was the notorious KAET poll (in Arizona it is known as the 'crank' poll), which has consisently been wrong on the left wing side since inception..

The other poll, the so-called "rocky mountain poll' has been no better.  They are bad jokes. 

Now, if you botter to read what I have said, you would note that taking real polls and extrapolating them to the most favorable direction for Pedersen would still leave Kyl with at least a twelve point lead.

Now, if you want to begin a topic on being 'ignorant,' I can dig up a few quotes.

[Alcon]

Sanders' worst poll: +21
Kyl's worst poll: +7

enough said.

The so called polls showing Kyl with less than a twelve point lead are all jokes.

If he has a 12-point lead and the MoE is +/-3, they could still be within MoE.  Calling them "jokes" would be statistically ignorant.

Alcon,

I realize that for whatever reason you have consistently been hostile and lacking in any measure or responsib ility.

If you go back a few years, you will see long discussions I had with Vorlon on the pollsters.

One of the polls was the notorious KAET poll, which has consisently been wrong on the left wing side since inception..

The other poll, the so-called "rocky mountain poll' has been no better.  They are bad jokes. 

Now, if you botter to read what I have said, you would note that taking real polls and extrapolating them to the most favorable direction for Pedersen would still leave Kyl with at least a twelve point lead.

Now, if you want to begin a topic on being 'ignorant,' I can dig up a few quotes.

I wasn't making any comment on the validity of the polls.  My comment was general, and not specific.  Any hostility was imagined on your part.

[CARLHAYDEN]

I will take that as a retraction of the "statistically ignorant" comment I must have imagined you made.

[opebo]

Dem chances beyond the big Five:

VA>TN>>AZ>>>>>>>>>>>>>>NV

Interesting!  I think it is:

VA>AZ>>>NV>>>>>TN

Because of the racism of the native Tennesseean.  I also think you tend to slightly understimate the unpredictability that is increasing in NV.. though it will still of course probably vote for Ensign.

Bob Corker is unpopular with the GOP base, he raised taxes, flip-flopped on abortion and he faces a charismatic Democrat who is socially conservative. Democrats candidate and will win the seat with national money. Pull the trigger, DSCC!

No, Ford is a black, and Tennessee is the South.

[Deano963]

Hell, the GOP has a better chance of gaining VT than the Dems do AZ. 

Um, No

I second that.

No, no they don't.

[Deano963]

Dems could eat babies live on television this year and still win Minnesota, New Jersey and Maryland (as long as Cardin wins the primary).

MN and NJ?  Haha.  NJ is a tossup and MN is eversoslightly leaning towards the Dems.

it's a bit more than slightly.

A lot more then slightly. I was once worried about that race but I'm not any longer. As for the New Jersey race being as toss up? LOL. Kean is down about 7 points, the Democratic machine in the state is virtually unstoppable, Kean did terrible in the last debate and its horrible year for Republicans in general. Come on.

Also, Kean trails Menendez by more than $5 million if I am not mistaken.

[Eraserhead]

Sanders' worst poll: +21
Kyl's worst poll: +7

enough said.

The so called polls showing Kyl with less than a twelve point lead are all jokes.

Polls that show Sanders only up 21 are jokes too. Thats why they are their worst polls. They are on one of the two extreme ends of possibility.

[Alcon]

I will take that as a retraction of the "statistically ignorant" comment I must have imagined you made.

I said that if you think that, it is statistically ignorant.  But I have no way of knowing whether you do or not.  I assume that you don't.

No retraction is required, unless you actually do believe that.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Without being partisan I really don't see any open seat held by a Democratic incumbent electing a GOP Senator this year.  Even with Mfume on the ballot in Maryland I think the Democrats would prevail.  Maryland, Minnesota and New Jersey are staying with the Democratic party this year. 

[DownWithTheLeft]

As the hatred of Corzine grows, Zulema Farber is brought closer to Menendez, and Kean's father hits the campaign trial, the race that has never produced a poll w/either candidate leading by more than 6 will move in the GOP camp.  VT? Probably not, it was just saying neither will change hands.  Here's a quote from the outgoing AG of NJ, pushed ahead by Menendez:

"The ethic standards in NJ are too high." LOL

That definetly helps Menendez when a Democrat he pushed forward is forced to resign and says that.

[J. J.]

I wish I had a dollar for every idiot move every politician in the US made.

I would have substantially greater assets.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The GOP has made much worse blunders so far this cycle anyway (See Florida Senate and New York Gubernatorial)

[DownWithTheLeft]

Governor Harry,

You seem to be a pretty good poster but there is no way you can feel that MS is more vulnerable than AZ, in fact I believe there are 34 races, than Lott should be 33 ahead of only Lugar for least vulnerable.  Do you truly believe Lott is that vulnerable or just wishful hometown thinking?

[jerusalemcar5]

Governor Harry,

You seem to be a pretty good poster but there is no way you can feel that MS is more vulnerable than AZ, in fact I believe there are 34 races, than Lott should be 33 ahead of only Lugar for least vulnerable.  Do you truly believe Lott is that vulnerable or just wishful hometown thinking?

No, it should be at 32.  Snowe is safer than Lott.  Harry is just traumatized by being in such a politically horrid state.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Ok, maybe my VT/AZ comparsion wasn't the best, but VT has a better chance to change than MS.

[Sam Spade]

The GOP has made much worse blunders so far this cycle anyway (See Florida Senate and New York Gubernatorial)

The NY Gov. situation was going to be a disaster anyway.  I'm not surprised.

Florida Sen. was the real blunder (par excellance)