Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[Mike88]

Ipsos exit poll:

https://twitter.com/ipsosperu/status/1381397005633794060

[Mike88]

Called it . Very impressive for Castillo. Will be a tight race for the 2nd position. And I imagine whoever wins can expect a term of, what, 6? months before impeachment. Hard to command legitimacy when 85-90% of the country didn't vote for you.

There's still the 2nd round in June.

[Mike88]

Official results will only be released after 11:30 pm, Peru time, is that right?

[Mike88]

Polls close in less than 10 minutes, right?

Forget that, polls close in 1 hour.

[Mike88]

Ipsos/America TV exit poll:

- Fujimori: 50.3%
- Castillo: 49.7%

Too close to call, and basically almost a repetition of 2016.

[Mike88]

I 2016 I think the exit polls had Fujimori behind by 1% or so.

The IPSOS one had PPK at 50.4% and Fujimori at 49.6%.

[Mike88]

In Arequipa, the exit poll gives 67% for Castillo and 33% for Fujimori.

In Lima, Fujimori edge Castillo by a 68% to 32% margin.

[Mike88]

If the rate continues at 0.1/1% exactly from now on (which he's been beating for many updates straight now minus the one big Ica dump) then Castillo will be over 50.3 after all domestics are in.

Starting to think he's got a very good shot at taking this; might be a slight favorite (!)

I believe all depends on the turnout in the overseas vote. In the first round, it was just 22.8%. Now, with 11.1% counted is at 39.8%. There's still a lot of big places to count like the US, which could decrease the turnout rate, but if the overseas vote turnout holds on at 39%, Fujimori could win around 177,000 votes and Castillo around 83,000, again, if the projected 68-32% margin overseas holds up. This is just an "analysis" and could be wrong, but everything is very, very close.

[Mike88]

Some napkin math.

Outstanding votes in provinces where Castillo is leading
45k from Amazonas
50k from Arequipa
100k from Ayacucho
170k from Cusco
45k from Huancavelica
30k from Huanuco
70k from Junin
18k from Madre de Dios
40k from Moquegua
38k from Pasco.
Approximately 606k votes left in provinces where Castillo is winning.

Outstanding vote in provinces where Fujimori is leading
8k from Ica
304k from Loreto
82k from Piura
36k from Ucayali
Approximately 430k votes left in provinces where Fujimori is winning.

Caveat is that Castillo has stronger margins in the most of the provinces where he's winning.

There are estimated to be another ~330-350k votes abroad as well, that are not counted yet.

Using this data of ballots yet to count, and following the trends in the regions where these ballots are still left, I calculated that the final result could be something like this:

9,033,222 Castillo (50.3%)
8,921,788 Fujimori (49.7%)

We'll see.

[Mike88]

The US margin of the vote will decide everything.

It’s gonna be one of the wider margins for Keiko I’d think.

I'm starting to believe it's becoming too little too late for Fujimori. Castillo's margins in the ares there are tons of ballots to count are 80%+ or 70%+. And in Loreto, Fujimori lead is very, very slowly shrinking, and she needs like 70%+ or more of the remaining ballots there to catch up. I don't think the overseas vote will do it for her. We'll see.

[Mike88]

The US margin of the vote will decide everything.

It’s gonna be one of the wider margins for Keiko I’d think.

I'm starting to believe it's becoming too little too late for Fujimori. Castillo's margins in the ares there are tons of ballots to count are 80%+ or 70%+. And in Loreto, Fujimori lead is very, very slowly shrinking, and she needs like 70%+ or more of the remaining ballots there to catch up. I don't think the overseas vote will do it for her. We'll see.

No, I totally agree, my swing o meter has been on Castillo since like 2am, I just feel so bad for all the fujimori stans who went to bed and still have no idea what’s about to happen. A lot of them even think there’s 800k expat votes? Lol no.

Don't feel bad for the Fujimori supporters. Both Castillo and Fujimori are awful, awful candidates and if there's anyone we should be sorry for, is the whole population of Peru. I don't think they deserve this and what is probably in store for them.

[Mike88]

The US margin of the vote will decide everything.

It’s gonna be one of the wider margins for Keiko I’d think.

I'm starting to believe it's becoming too little too late for Fujimori. Castillo's margins in the ares there are tons of ballots to count are 80%+ or 70%+. And in Loreto, Fujimori lead is very, very slowly shrinking, and she needs like 70%+ or more of the remaining ballots there to catch up. I don't think the overseas vote will do it for her. We'll see.

No, I totally agree, my swing o meter has been on Castillo since like 2am, I just feel so bad for all the fujimori stans who went to bed and still have no idea what’s about to happen. A lot of them even think there’s 800k expat votes? Lol no.

Don't feel bad for the Fujimori supporters. Both Castillo and Fujimori are awful, awful candidates and if there's anyone we should be sorry for, is the whole population of Peru. I don't think they deserve this and what is probably in store for them.

They chose the neo-liberal American shill and that didn't work out for them, either.  The extreme margins of the spectrum are kind of all that's left for them at this point. It's an incredibly strange country politically.

More than a weird country, is a place that is still suffering from the political consequences of the terrible events of the 80s and 90s. At least if Keiko loses they could bury Fujimorism for good, is a cancer.

I don't think that if she loses, again, by around 0.4% that Fujimorism will be dead and buried. She will probably give another try in 2026, especially if Castillo crashes in the meantime.

[Mike88]

In Peru alone, Fujimori now leads by just 1,283 votes. The "surpasso" is imminent.  

[Mike88]

Argentina 46.5% in. 22k votes (20.5k valid)

Fujimori: 57.3%
Castillo: 42.7%

Argentina and Uruguay best American countries, the lowest % of the Fujimori vote is there.

Uruguay - 55% Fujimori
Argentina - 57%
Brazil - 59%
Bolivia - 65%
Ecuador - 66%
Colombia - 72%
Mexico - 73%
Paraguay - 74%
Canada - 76%

Portugal was quite strong for Fujimori also: 83% to Castillo's 17%. However, just 117 ballots were cast.

[Mike88]

Update: 93.57 in, 50.014-50.986

Castillo gains 0.036 from 0.26. Castillo now leads in Peru.

Additional 3% of expat vote. Around 1% each from Cusco and Loreto.

I think my forecast of an overall Castillo win of 50.3-49.7% is now very likely. And he will probably lead Fujimori by more than 100,000 ballots when all is set and done.

[Mike88]

Curiously, in an election with two deeply disliked candidates, the share of invalid/blank ballots is on the same level of previous elections, much lower than in the 1st round, and even lower compared with other election like 2006, for example.

[Mike88]

Maybe there not that disliked in big parts of the population as some people have suggested. Is a symptom of the disconnection in LatAm between the elite and the rest of the population.

Or maybe it was a vote against the other side, like "I cannot spoil my ballot and let the other side win".

[Mike88]

First page of the brazilian newspaper Meia Hora
https://twitter.com/meiahora/status/1402204058149085188

"Nascido em 69, na cidade de Chota, candidato do Peru Livre, de esquerda, disputa eleição pau a pau e a gente não tem maturidade pra lidar com isso"
"Quem ganhou a última eleição foi PPK"

This newspaper found lots of double meaning jokes.
"Peru" is the name in portuguese of the bird "turkey". Due to the similarity of the shape between a turkey and a penis, the word "peru" in Brazil is used to refer to penis. Chota, the city where Castillo was born, is one of many names for vagina in portuguese. 69, the year Castillo was born (1969), is a name of a sexual position. "pau a pau" is similar to "head to head", but "pau" is another word for penis, since the literal translation is stick. PPK, the name of the previous winner, is also a name used for vagina.

I was aware of the term chota, not very common here in Portugal however, but PPK is a new one for me.

[Mike88]

First page of the brazilian newspaper Meia Hora
https://twitter.com/meiahora/status/1402204058149085188

"Nascido em 69, na cidade de Chota, candidato do Peru Livre, de esquerda, disputa eleição pau a pau e a gente não tem maturidade pra lidar com isso"
"Quem ganhou a última eleição foi PPK"

This newspaper found lots of double meaning jokes.
"Peru" is the name in portuguese of the bird "turkey". Due to the similarity of the shape between a turkey and a penis, the word "peru" in Brazil is used to refer to penis. Chota, the city where Castillo was born, is one of many names for vagina in portuguese. 69, the year Castillo was born (1969), is a name of a sexual position. "pau a pau" is similar to "head to head", but "pau" is another word for penis, since the literal translation is stick. PPK, the name of the previous winner, is also a name used for vagina.

I was aware of the term chota, not very common here in Portugal however, but PPK is a new one for me.

PPK is pronounced exactly like “pepeca” which is usually a child-friendly name parents give to vagina and teach them to speak so that they don’t just say the word out loud and start an embarrassing situation.

Ah, right, here we use more "pipi", which is basically how you pronounce the initials PP in english.

[Mike88]

Well, this is happening:

https://twitter.com/CNNEE/status/1403041774038290433

Prosecutor requests that Keiko Fujimori be held in preventive detention for the Odebrecht case, according to Andina agency

Prosecutor José Domingo Pérez, head of the special team that works on investigations related to alleged acts of corruption at Odebrecht, asked a judge to revoke the summons with restrictions that was issued against Keiko Fujimori, presidential candidate of Fuerza Popular, and impose again preventive detention against her.

As reported on Thursday by the state-run Andean Agency, she is accused of allegedly violating the rules of conduct imposed by the court that ordered her release when she met with a witness in the case. CNN is seeking Fujimori's reaction.

(...)

[Mike88]

Well, this happened:

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1542623410387165184

[Mike88]

"Another one bites the dust":

https://twitter.com/AmericaElige/status/1596206207395504128

[Mike88]

The President of the Constitutional Court called Castillo's action a "coup d'etat" in the worst XX century fashion and is asking the Armed Forces to reestablish order in the country.

[Mike88]

Castillo has been removed from office. Boluarte will be sworn in as president in an hour.

https://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1600563675127242752

Perú: PEDRO CASTILLO, DISMISSED

Congress overwhelmingly declares the 'moral incapacity' of Pedro Castillo to continue with the Presidency of the Republic.

Vacancy Motion (removal)
In Favor: 101