Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[Oryxslayer]

If we're discussing democratic mandates, then it's worth recalling that Castillo polled 19% of the vote in the first round and won the runoff with a margin of 0.3pts. Enough to be the constitutionally and electorally legitimate President, certainly, but not enough to claim much of a mandate for radical political action let alone radical constitutional tinkering let alone an attempt to pull off an Autogolpe. I would suggest that the whole experience - and, frankly, the whole experience of Peruvian politics over the past few decades,* suggests that an Executive Presidency is not a good idea for the country.

_{*Every single elected President has ended up in prison or ought to have done: Garcia avoided it by topping himself like an Agatha Christie villain and Toledo has been trying to dodge it - but presumably will fail in the end as he lost that case last year - by hiding out in the United States.}

I think that some of the issue is their top-two system. Castillo got about 19% and Keiko Fujimori got about 13.5%, then Peruvians got to pick and, as they did in the previous two elections, Keiko lost by under 1%. I wonder how it would’ve gone if there was an instant runoff system instead.

In a way, Peru’s politics are starting to remind me of Israel’s in the sense that there’s constant turnover, splintering coalitions/parties, and bare majorities either for or against a polarizing figure (Keiko Fujimori vs Bibi Netanyahu).

The difference is that while Israeli politics is multi-polarized around clear sectarian poles, the South American runoff presidential system incentivizes every "flavor of the year" Caudillo politician with a following to try for the top office, leading to voter depolarization.

Which is a weird thing to say, but with large blocks of voters swapping allegiances every cycle, more politicians think they have an opening on their own, which fragments the legislature between parties of personality not programs. The low barrier of access to the runoff means the runoff election is often a choice of "who is worse" for a majority (not minority) of the electorate, so any president could only tentatively claim a mandate. When they do think said result incentivizes big policies it often leads to the increasingly common ~20% approval rating. Which then fosters disillusionment with the system, since only a small fraction of voters actually got an acceptable outcome, and the rest watch as backroom deals result in politicians you voted for approving policies they ran against.

[icc]

If we're discussing democratic mandates, then it's worth recalling that Castillo polled 19% of the vote in the first round and won the runoff with a margin of 0.3pts. Enough to be the constitutionally and electorally legitimate President, certainly, but not enough to claim much of a mandate for radical political action let alone radical constitutional tinkering let alone an attempt to pull off an Autogolpe. I would suggest that the whole experience - and, frankly, the whole experience of Peruvian politics over the past few decades,* suggests that an Executive Presidency is not a good idea for the country.

_{*Every single elected President has ended up in prison or ought to have done: Garcia avoided it by topping himself like an Agatha Christie villain and Toledo has been trying to dodge it - but presumably will fail in the end as he lost that case last year - by hiding out in the United States.}

I think that some of the issue is their top-two system. Castillo got about 19% and Keiko Fujimori got about 13.5%, then Peruvians got to pick and, as they did in the previous two elections, Keiko lost by under 1%. I wonder how it would’ve gone if there was an instant runoff system instead.

In a way, Peru’s politics are starting to remind me of Israel’s in the sense that there’s constant turnover, splintering coalitions/parties, and bare majorities either for or against a polarizing figure (Keiko Fujimori vs Bibi Netanyahu).

Under AV ('instant runoff') the winner would likely have been either Rafael López Aliaga or Hernando de Soto. It almost certainly wouldn't have been either Castillo or (especially) Fujimori, probably the two most unpopular candidates.

The difference is that while Israeli politics is multi-polarized around clear sectarian poles, the South American runoff presidential system incentivizes every "flavor of the year" Caudillo politician with a following to try for the top office, leading to voter depolarization.

It's more a distinctly Peruvian than South American problem. Over a period of many years, pretty much every political movement (most notably APRA) in the country was discredited, culminating in the falls of both Kuczynski and the  Fujimoris in 2018. This left Peru with no political parties or political actors capable of uniting even 15-20% of electors behind them, and therefore no incentive for politicians to band together to win over a decent chunk of the electorate.

Ironically, it looks as though Keiko Fujimori was basically propping up the system for a number of years, as Fujimorismo had a strong following and a high floor, forcing other ideological strands to unite behind a single politician, rather than splintering off all over the place.

Other South American countries certainly have the potential to go down this route, but it's only Peru which has done so far.



The most sensible thing, not just for Peru, but for virtually every country in Latin America, is almost certainly to abandon Presidentialism, but that is very unlikely to happen.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Congress continues to dither about early elections, extending the current legislative session until January (any proposal would need to pass in two sessions, and by a 2/3 margin in order to avoid a time-consuming referendum). Meanwhile ten more people have died, mostly in Andahuaylas.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Congress is debating over elections in 2024 or late 2023 and reforms or no reforms, with no consensus. Meanwhile, education minister Patricia Correa has resigned in protest over escalating deaths as the military is called in to suppress the protests.

Update: proposal for elections in December 2023 fails, 49-33 with 25 abstentions.

[PSOL]

The government has deployed the army on the streets to suppress the protests.

[PSOL]

Seems like they’re definitely working to end this ASAP

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Are people now going to defend a massacre

what is next: genocide denial?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

(trigger warning: footage ayacusco massacre)

https://twitter.com/WaykaPeru/status/1603843492647735309

The coup so many atlas people here support.

This is the regime you support

I hope you can sleep and watch in the mirror this evening

EDIT:

https://twitter.com/aftermathvids/status/1603886756377477120

[Lumine]

Congress is debating over elections in 2024 or late 2023 and reforms or no reforms, with no consensus. Meanwhile, education minister Patricia Correa has resigned in protest over escalating deaths as the military is called in to suppress the protests.

Update: proposal for elections in December 2023 fails, 49-33 with 25 abstentions.

"Suicidal" is just about the kindest thing I can say about failing to bring the elections forward.

From what I've been reading, it failed due to several left and right-wing parties either abstaining or voting it down. Apparently, the justification from the left is that new elections must include a constituent assembly (and/or other lists of grievances), and from the right because they don't want to "cave to violence".

It has been suggested that, rhetoric aside, some Congressmen are using this to get rid of Boluarte, because unless the defeated bill is reconsidered, the matter won't be debated again until later in 2023, meaning that the only available route for new elections would be her resignation.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Meanwhile, education minister Patricia Correa has resigned in protest over escalating deaths as the military is called in to suppress the protests.

https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/peru-ministers-resign-amid-deadly-protests/ar-AA15n9iF?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=8f705badbc8045c68f623e5f9ff64145

culture minister also has resigned now.

[PSOL]

Just like in Bolivia, it is indigenous people and their national struggle who are most against the colonial remains of Peruvian oppression. The urbanites and their NGOs and Guilds pretending to be trade unions have no popularity when they’re only looking out for themselves.

On the ground, it’s really heartening that the wider Peruvian Left is against the return of Humala 2.0. JPP, PCP, PL, and more are all unified to prevent another puppet to take power.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Are people now going to defend a massacre

what is next: genocide denial?

I very much doubt that anyone here has any interest in defending anything of the sort. This is a very dangerous situation and has been for some time and had Castillo succeeded in his Autogolpe, then there would also have been violence, and assuming otherwise would be the height of naivety. I'm personally very sceptical that the sort of political stability Peru needs will emerge any time soon as all political parties, factions and tendencies appear committed to some form or other of the failed political system that has essentially destroyed the country. Very often there are no good guys and no possibility of a happy ending either.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

From what I've been reading, it failed due to several left and right-wing parties either abstaining or voting it down. Apparently, the justification from the left is that new elections must include a constituent assembly (and/or other lists of grievances), and from the right because they don't want to "cave to violence".

Does all feel a bit like a polity with a death wish by this point.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

From what I've been reading, it failed due to several left and right-wing parties either abstaining or voting it down. Apparently, the justification from the left is that new elections must include a constituent assembly (and/or other lists of grievances), and from the right because they don't want to "cave to violence".

Does all feel a bit like a polity with a death wish by this point.

I'm sure in a country like Peru, Boluarte will not last long as president. That's the point we have been making. And secondly, it is not an excuse for using the military forces like that and shooting Peruvians like meat.

The UN has started an investigation on child violence

UN Committee Urges Peru to Probe Child Protest Violence

And she has not even been in power for 10 days, what a record already.

and all international media cares about is tourists being stranded in peru...

[PSOL]

The issue with Peru is that it’s government system, and geographic population distribution and demographics, does not prioritize a balance of power to such a diverse country. That, and the fact that Peru has always been a divided nation with no clear efficient working methods to negotiate among nations, castes, nor even classes within the country.

The only solution to Peru’s problem is to break the old colonial system and, underratedly, break Lima’s hold as a place most Peruvians live and migrate to for any sort of work. That requires a new economic system and politicians not reliant on international finance for a livelihood, and care in improving people’s lives  that isn’t present with most of the elite.

Still, the struggle is real and moves forward.

@Laki the dominant news media has always been owned and operated under the rules of the capitalist class, not the public good, and it’s sway has infected the minds of many who bought the bait.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

I think you can say both that what Castillo tried to do with the autogolpe was bad and what’s happening now is bad.

[FrancoAgo]

questions

1) The Peru President can dissolve the congress

as i understand yes, has a rule to respect

2) Has him respected the rule

this is not clear for me, also if seem this is not true, there is a former one very similar and this was take as legal, the Peru constitution is not clear and other the wrote Constitution there is a also the one that in italian is called "consuetudine costituzionale"

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well this sure is bleak.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

questions

1) The Peru President can dissolve the congress

as i understand yes, has a rule to respect

2) Has him respected the rule

this is not clear for me, also if seem this is not true, there is a former one very similar and this was take as legal, the Peru constitution is not clear and other the wrote Constitution there is a also the one that in italian is called "consuetudine costituzionale"

The president can dissolve Congress if they vote no on two votes of confidence (either a direct confidential vote in their cabinet, or on certain issues that can be designated as confidence votes beforehand). That’s what happened in 2019, which led to the congressional elections in January 2020. That’s not what happened here.

Anyway, according to IEP 44% approve of Castillo’s dissolution of Congress and 53% disapprove (my understanding is that Fujimori’s move in 1992 garnered much more support at the time, FWIW). 26% approve of Castillo’s performance as president and 42% disapprove. 83% want early elections.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/Politica_LR/status/1604118746045497344?s=20&t=LjnBRLbe6g...

Well this is not great

[Sir John Johns]

The police is now raiding the headquarters of Verónika Mendoza’s Nuevo Perú.

https://twitter.com/NuevoPeruMov/status/1604138175403679744


Also, a probably relevant fact about yesterday's vote about moving elections to 2023:

https://twitter.com/MauricioZava/status/1603869346006466560

Legislative alert: here is the vote by which the advancement of the elections to 2023 has been rejected. Nine benches divided themselves in the vote.

At the risk of stating the obvious, Fuerza Popular voted in favor because it is the only party able to compete in the elections on the next year. The others ones are very, very aware of their feebleness.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

pink and blue means support for boluarte, red means support for castillo

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/democracynow/status/1603744546097352704

This Peruvian sociologist calls it "a coup within a coup"

The Sociologist says that if Boluarte resigns, the head of military would become president because he would be next in line since there's no VP in line because she's already president, so if Boluarte is impeached or resigned, the military has all power

José Williams would become president in that case

José Daniel Williams Zapata (born 9 November 1951) is a retired Peruvian Army general who led Operation Chavín de Huántar, a military operation that successfully ended the 1997 Japanese embassy hostage crisis. Serving as Chief of the Joint Command of the Armed Forces of Peru from 2005 to 2006, Williams currently represents the constituency of Lima in the Peruvian Congress as a member of Go on Country - Social Integration Party.

They're trying to get rid of Boluarte



Pressure increases and people have filed constitutional complaints which might start an impeachment procedure.

On 5 December 2022, just days before Congress was set to vote on impeaching Castillo, a constitutional complaint was filed by the Subcommittee on Constitutional Accusations against Vice President Dina Boluarte, alleging that she operated a private club while she was the Minister of Development. The allegations against Boluarte created the potential for the vice president to face controversy if Castillo were to be impeached.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

https://twitter.com/democracynow/status/1603744546097352704

This Peruvian sociologist calls it "a coup within a coup"

The Sociologist says that if Boluarte resigns, the head of military would become president because he would be next in line since there's no VP in line because she's already president, so if Boluarte is impeached or resigned, the military has all power

José Williams would become president in that case

José Daniel Williams Zapata (born 9 November 1951) is a retired Peruvian Army general who led Operation Chavín de Huántar, a military operation that successfully ended the 1997 Japanese embassy hostage crisis. Serving as Chief of the Joint Command of the Armed Forces of Peru from 2005 to 2006, Williams currently represents the constituency of Lima in the Peruvian Congress as a member of Go on Country - Social Integration Party.

They're trying to get rid of Boluarte



Pressure increases and people have filed constitutional complaints which might start an impeachment procedure.

If Boluarte leaves office and Williams becomes president (or someone else chosen by Congress, a la Sagasti) he’d have to call for new general elections immediately (Article 115 of the constitution), which would take place nine months from their being called (Ley Orgánica Electoral). Not sure it would give enough time to let less-established parties prepare or to reform the electoral system in the ways that are being called for (e.g. open primaries), if those reforms are even feasible in this Congress, but at this point it may be the only immediate way out of the current stage of the crisis.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

https://twitter.com/democracynow/status/1603744546097352704

This Peruvian sociologist calls it "a coup within a coup"

The Sociologist says that if Boluarte resigns, the head of military would become president because he would be next in line since there's no VP in line because she's already president, so if Boluarte is impeached or resigned, the military has all power

José Williams would become president in that case

José Daniel Williams Zapata (born 9 November 1951) is a retired Peruvian Army general who led Operation Chavín de Huántar, a military operation that successfully ended the 1997 Japanese embassy hostage crisis. Serving as Chief of the Joint Command of the Armed Forces of Peru from 2005 to 2006, Williams currently represents the constituency of Lima in the Peruvian Congress as a member of Go on Country - Social Integration Party.

They're trying to get rid of Boluarte



Pressure increases and people have filed constitutional complaints which might start an impeachment procedure.

If Boluarte leaves office and Williams becomes president (or someone else chosen by Congress, a la Sagasti) he’d have to call for new general elections immediately (Article 115 of the constitution).

which would be in the interest of the Fuerza Popular (Popular Force) party. I think they would vote in favour of impeaching Boluarte.

Anyways her position is very weak atm.