Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Why the foreign vote is very challenging to understand: foreign turnout in elections is very volatile. In 2011, 88 thousand valid votes were cast in the US and 78 thousand valid votes were cast in the US in 2016. Is there reason to think that turnout could be as high as 120 or 130 thousand? Sure but there is also reason to think it could be as low as 70 thousand (no Peruvian students due to restrictions/no guest workers).

Turnout is going to be sky high.

It’s over, Fujimori won. Now there’s nothing stopping me from resuming my Atlasia career instead of dissipating for a whole year.

Lmao literally everyone is dooming.

[PSOL]

Why the foreign vote is very challenging to understand: foreign turnout in elections is very volatile. In 2011, 88 thousand valid votes were cast in the US and 78 thousand valid votes were cast in the US in 2016. Is there reason to think that turnout could be as high as 120 or 130 thousand? Sure but there is also reason to think it could be as low as 70 thousand (no Peruvian students due to restrictions/no guest workers).

Turnout is going to be sky high.

It’s over, Fujimori won. Now there’s nothing stopping me from resuming my Atlasia career instead of dissipating for a whole year.

Lmao literally everyone is dooming.

I was dooming before it was cool.

I’ll raise the stakes, if Castillo wins I won’t post in the political demographic and geography and the 2020 prez board for a whole year.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Why the foreign vote is very challenging to understand: foreign turnout in elections is very volatile. In 2011, 88 thousand valid votes were cast in the US and 78 thousand valid votes were cast in the US in 2016. Is there reason to think that turnout could be as high as 120 or 130 thousand? Sure but there is also reason to think it could be as low as 70 thousand (no Peruvian students due to restrictions/no guest workers).

Turnout is going to be sky high.

It’s over, Fujimori won. Now there’s nothing stopping me from resuming my Atlasia career instead of dissipating for a whole year.

It's weird, but I find the way that Atlas never learns the danger of making premature pronouncements to be quaintly charming.  Some things never change.

[PSOL]

Why the foreign vote is very challenging to understand: foreign turnout in elections is very volatile. In 2011, 88 thousand valid votes were cast in the US and 78 thousand valid votes were cast in the US in 2016. Is there reason to think that turnout could be as high as 120 or 130 thousand? Sure but there is also reason to think it could be as low as 70 thousand (no Peruvian students due to restrictions/no guest workers).

Turnout is going to be sky high.

It’s over, Fujimori won. Now there’s nothing stopping me from resuming my Atlasia career instead of dissipating for a whole year.

It's weird, but I find the way that Atlas never learns the danger of making premature pronouncements to be quaintly charming.  Some things never change.

Peruvian Americans don’t like Panchamama, and the bishops are busing in voters in Florida to the consulate, I’m sure.

Upper class Catholics and Protestants don’t like the devil, that’s for shauw

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why the foreign vote is very challenging to understand: foreign turnout in elections is very volatile. In 2011, 88 thousand valid votes were cast in the US and 78 thousand valid votes were cast in the US in 2016. Is there reason to think that turnout could be as high as 120 or 130 thousand? Sure but there is also reason to think it could be as low as 70 thousand (no Peruvian students due to restrictions/no guest workers).

Turnout is going to be sky high.

It’s over, Fujimori won. Now there’s nothing stopping me from resuming my Atlasia career instead of dissipating for a whole year.

Lmao literally everyone is dooming.

I was dooming before it was cool.

I’ll raise the stakes, if Castillo wins I won’t post in the political demographic and geography and the 2020 prez board for a whole year.

I will disregard this promise in the event Castillo wins.

[Red Velvet]

Japan and Italy could get 90% Keiko based on the early reports, right? Spain 85%. France is the outlier, with 60%. But I’m not sure about those numbers. I’m going based on the results seen too (Portugal could be similar to Spain, France to Germany, etc)

Keiko could have more than the necessary to win. Especially if US gets behind her like Mexico and Canada did (both 75%).

[Sestak]

Is there a concrete reason everyone seems to have upped their expat turnout expectation?

Twelve or so hours ago the upper end of the bar was like 320-350K total expat vote. Now everyone seems to be operating under the idea that it's 400K+ or something. Has something come out on that?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Japan and Italy could get 90% Keiko based on the early reports, right? Spain 85%. France is the outlier, with 60%. But I’m not sure about those numbers. I’m going based on the results seen too (Portugal could be similar to Spain, France to Germany, etc)

Keiko could have more than the necessary to win. Especially if US gets behind her like Mexico and Canada did (both 75%).

No, there is absolutely no reason to believe that Italy or Spain will give Keiko that level of support. In 2011, Italy gave Humala 37% of the vote and Spain gave Humala 35% of the vote. Thus far, results in Europe have basically matched 2011.

Less than 100 people will vote in Portugal or something like that so it doesn't matter. France should give Castillo around 40%.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Is there a concrete reason everyone seems to have upped their expat turnout expectation?

Twelve or so hours ago the upper end of the bar was like 320-350K total expat vote. Now everyone seems to be operating under the idea that it's 400K+ or something. Has something come out on that?

Doomers gonna doom.

[Sestak]

We have first US votes. From New Jersey, break 80-20 for Keiko.

~30% turnout from these stations. Around 75 votes per station cast (there are ~1K stations assigned to the US).

[Red Velvet]

We have first US votes. From New Jersey, break 80-20 for Keiko.

~30% turnout from these stations. Around 75 votes per station cast (there are ~1K stations assigned to the US).

The victory margin is good news for Keiko (in Miami I imagine 90%). But the 28% turnout is not.

Hopefully it maintains near 30% instead of the expected 40%

[PSOL]

We have first US votes. From New Jersey, break 80-20 for Keiko.

~30% turnout from these stations. Around 75 votes per station cast (there are ~1K stations assigned to the US).

The victory margin is good news for Keiko (in Miami I imagine 90%). But the 28% turnout is not.

Hopefully it maintains near 30% instead of the expected 40%

It’s going to rise, Panchamama will be vanquished by the forces of Christ.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I promise not to post on the PG&D board for 48 hours if Fujimori wins.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

It looks like Keiko is already taking a page from some ex-world leader's book...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoHLVxzq5Mw

Who whines neck-and-neck at a horse race?

Someone whose only options are to win or go directly to jail without passing Go

It's funny how the course of this thread has gone from "Fujimori's lead is unbeatable" to "Castillo can't possibly lose" to "Castillo just doesn't have enough votes to overcome Fujimori's legion of Peruvian-Americans". What a rollercoaster.

With 7% reporting Fujimori leads Castillo 80-20 in the US, but it's only given her 3000 votes net. The margin is concerning for Castillo but the turnout is concerning for Fujimori. Of course the number of Peruvians in Miami probably dwarfs the number of Peruvians in New Jersey so lets not get too carried away with extrapolations.

I'd definitely still rather be Castillo and have a 150k lead in hand than be Fujimori hoping for for legendary turnout in Miami, Madrid and Milan.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

We have first US votes. From New Jersey, break 80-20 for Keiko.

~30% turnout from these stations. Around 75 votes per station cast (there are ~1K stations assigned to the US).

That’s a shockingly high number of stations. I have a friend who has French citizenship and he had to go from the Sacramento area to the Bay Area to vote in the French elections.

[kaoras]

Japan and Italy could get 90% Keiko based on the early reports, right? Spain 85%. France is the outlier, with 60%. But I’m not sure about those numbers. I’m going based on the results seen too (Portugal could be similar to Spain, France to Germany, etc)

Keiko could have more than the necessary to win. Especially if US gets behind her like Mexico and Canada did (both 75%).

No, there is absolutely no reason to believe that Italy or Spain will give Keiko that level of support. In 2011, Italy gave Humala 37% of the vote and Spain gave Humala 35% of the vote. Thus far, results in Europe have basically matched 2011.

Less than 100 people will vote in Portugal or something like that so it doesn't matter. France should give Castillo around 40%.

As I said, the unofficial counts in Japan and Spain already happened. Keiko won 91-8 in Japan and 60-39 in Spain

Also, given the Arica results, even if Santiago is more favorable for Fujimori I doubt she wins a lanslide here (hell, winning at all is debatable) and Chile is one of the largest places with 177k habilitated voters.

[Lumine]

What with an almost perfect 50-50 split, I have to strongly agree with the narrative that Fujimori and Castillo are truly perfect for each other, and the only candidate the other could have hoped to beat. Had it been any of the other likely contenders against either, Peru would already have a President-Elect and it wouldn't be by a close margin.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

It looks like Keiko is already taking a page from some ex-world leader's book...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoHLVxzq5Mw

Who whines neck-and-neck at a horse race?

Someone whose only options are to win or go directly to jail without passing Go

It's funny how the course of this thread has gone from "Fujimori's lead is unbeatable" to "Castillo can't possibly lose" to "Castillo just doesn't have enough votes to overcome Fujimori's legion of Peruvian-Americans". What a rollercoaster.

With 7% reporting Fujimori leads Castillo 80-20 in the US, but it's only given her 3000 votes net. The margin is concerning for Castillo but the turnout is concerning for Fujimori. Of course the number of Peruvians in Miami probably dwarfs the number of Peruvians in New Jersey so lets not get too carried away with extrapolations.

I'd definitely still rather be Castillo and have a 150k lead in hand than be Fujimori hoping for for legendary turnout in Miami, Madrid and Milan.

I have no idea why people here have been making this assumption. It's 100% false: the Tri-State area (NJ-CT-NY) is the top destination of both Peruvians and Ecuadorians. Miami is a secondary destination of Peruvians. There is a large community there and it's more affluent and connected to Peru.

Edit: as of 2011, there were about as many eligible Peruvian voters in Miami as in NYC but there were about as many in NJ as Miami as well.

[PSOL]

What with an almost perfect 50-50 split, I have to strongly agree with the narrative that Fujimori and Castillo are truly perfect for each other, and the only candidate the other could have hoped to beat. Had it been any of the other likely contenders against either, Peru would already have a President-Elect and it wouldn't be by a close margin.

Honestly; I doubt Forsyth, Aliaga, or Mendoza would do any better.

[EastwoodS]

It looks like Keiko is already taking a page from some ex-world leader's book...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoHLVxzq5Mw

Who whines neck-and-neck at a horse race?

Someone whose only options are to win or go directly to jail without passing Go

It's funny how the course of this thread has gone from "Fujimori's lead is unbeatable" to "Castillo can't possibly lose" to "Castillo just doesn't have enough votes to overcome Fujimori's legion of Peruvian-Americans". What a rollercoaster.

With 7% reporting Fujimori leads Castillo 80-20 in the US, but it's only given her 3000 votes net. The margin is concerning for Castillo but the turnout is concerning for Fujimori. Of course the number of Peruvians in Miami probably dwarfs the number of Peruvians in New Jersey so lets not get too carried away with extrapolations.

I'd definitely still rather be Castillo and have a 150k lead in hand than be Fujimori hoping for for legendary turnout in Miami, Madrid and Milan.

If NJ is coming in at 80-20 idek wanna know what the insane margin in Miami will be for Keiko, probably 95-5

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

It looks like Keiko is already taking a page from some ex-world leader's book...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoHLVxzq5Mw

Who whines neck-and-neck at a horse race?

Someone whose only options are to win or go directly to jail without passing Go

It's funny how the course of this thread has gone from "Fujimori's lead is unbeatable" to "Castillo can't possibly lose" to "Castillo just doesn't have enough votes to overcome Fujimori's legion of Peruvian-Americans". What a rollercoaster.

With 7% reporting Fujimori leads Castillo 80-20 in the US, but it's only given her 3000 votes net. The margin is concerning for Castillo but the turnout is concerning for Fujimori. Of course the number of Peruvians in Miami probably dwarfs the number of Peruvians in New Jersey so lets not get too carried away with extrapolations.

I'd definitely still rather be Castillo and have a 150k lead in hand than be Fujimori hoping for for legendary turnout in Miami, Madrid and Milan.

I have no idea why people here have been making this assumption. It's 100% false: the Tri-State area (NJ-CT-NY) is the top destination of both Peruvians and Ecuadorians. Miami is a secondary destination of Peruvians. There is a large community there and it's more affluent and connected to Peru.

Edit: as of 2011, there were about as many eligible Peruvian voters in Miami as in NYC but there were about as many in NJ as Miami as well.

"All right-wing Latin American diasporas are basically Miami's and Venezuela's with the serial numbers filed off"

[Sestak]

New Jersey now basically all in. This accounts for 1/6 (16%) of all stations in the US.

Remains 80-20 Fujimori (she slipped a touch but not noticeable) and 28% turnout.


Extreme Press X To Doubt re the people here insisting the US would be at 40% turnout.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

New Jersey now basically all in. This accounts for 1/6 (16%) of all stations in the US.

Remains 80-20 Fujimori (she slipped a touch but not noticeable) and 28% turnout.


Extreme Press X To Doubt re the people here insisting the US would be at 40% turnout.

Really says something that New Jersey alone is 1/6 of all stations in the entire US...

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

It looks like Keiko is already taking a page from some ex-world leader's book...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoHLVxzq5Mw

Who whines neck-and-neck at a horse race?

Someone whose only options are to win or go directly to jail without passing Go

It's funny how the course of this thread has gone from "Fujimori's lead is unbeatable" to "Castillo can't possibly lose" to "Castillo just doesn't have enough votes to overcome Fujimori's legion of Peruvian-Americans". What a rollercoaster.

With 7% reporting Fujimori leads Castillo 80-20 in the US, but it's only given her 3000 votes net. The margin is concerning for Castillo but the turnout is concerning for Fujimori. Of course the number of Peruvians in Miami probably dwarfs the number of Peruvians in New Jersey so lets not get too carried away with extrapolations.

I'd definitely still rather be Castillo and have a 150k lead in hand than be Fujimori hoping for for legendary turnout in Miami, Madrid and Milan.

I have no idea why people here have been making this assumption. It's 100% false: the Tri-State area (NJ-CT-NY) is the top destination of both Peruvians and Ecuadorians. Miami is a secondary destination of Peruvians. There is a large community there and it's more affluent and connected to Peru.

Edit: as of 2011, there were about as many eligible Peruvian voters in Miami as in NYC but there were about as many in NJ as Miami as well.

Interstate migration since 2011 (and especially since 2020) has been away from the Tristate area and towards Miami. Also, New Jersey is a third of the TSA whereas Peruvians in Florida are all in the same state. Plus right wing Latino organizations have much more presence in Miami and thus a higher potential to drive up turnout.

I still think Fujimori won't make it but its hardly crazy to say Miami will probably produce more votes than New Jersey.

[Sestak]

New Jersey now basically all in. This accounts for 1/6 (16%) of all stations in the US.

Remains 80-20 Fujimori (she slipped a touch but not noticeable) and 28% turnout.


Extreme Press X To Doubt re the people here insisting the US would be at 40% turnout.

Really says something that New Jersey alone is 1/6 of all stations in the entire US...

New Jersey is actually the largest of the "states" they've divided the US into in terms of number of stations. The "State of Miami" is second with a few less.