Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[kaoras]

Usually the expat vote goes for the Right, no matter the country in question. This is because you are more likely to get into the US if you have resources, education, connections, and ties to global business. Those all are usually synonymous with the right, but also Liberals like LREM. For Latin America the combination of Miami being both a destination and being dominated by anti-socialist Cubans only magnifies things. In Round one the US vote was:

Lopez Aliaga - 28.1%
de Soto - 16.7%
Fujimori - 13.4%
Mendoza - 9.8%
Forsyth - 7.8%
Lescano - 7.5%

Others - 16.6% (Including 2.9% for Castillo)

I'm pretty sure that US expats votes overwhelmingly for Biden over Trump and Canadians who live abroad tend to vote Liberal or NDP and NOT Tory.  and Israeli expats tend to be more centrist and less rightwing than Israelis in Israel

Even in Latin America the Chilean expat vote is left wing due the exiles of the dictatorships.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Fujimori's convoy being pelted with trash in Arequipa strikes me as a kind of canary in the coalmine. In my view, that's a sign of near total consolidation for Castillo in a provincial city that actually has plenty of right-wingers and non-indigenous people. Hard to see how Keiko can have a campaign there if her supporters would be attacked...

Simple, you go to a opposition activist (rather than simply voter) stronghold and feign decency, but the simple nature of you being there provokes a reaction. You end up as the seemingly decent one, despite the fact you are the provoker. Same with VOX putting up big posters in Mardid's most "Linke" style neighborhood or holding a "peaceful" march through separatist neighborhoods of Barcelona. You know what you are doing and want the reaction, not the action. It can work in both directions.

No offense but I don't think you understand anything about Peru or Latin America more generally. As Arequipa is Peru's 2nd largest city, it's filled with plenty of non-indigenous, middle class people who are wary of Castillo. It's the sort of city where even relatively affluent places feature indigenous people and where the slums are extensions of the highlands but it's still an urban environment where an anti-socialist/anti-indigenous candidate can expect a decent floor of support. This is evidenced by the fact that there's a section of the city where Hernando de Soto received over 30% of the vote!

Maybe the convoy intentionally went through some poor parts of the city, I cannot speak on that, but you'd absolutely expect Fujimori to actively campaign in Arequipa for reasons that aren't underhanded.

Actually, this will probably help Fujimori: she went to Arequipa to participate in a debate with Castillo and to take a public oath to preserve democracy, respect press freedom, defend the constitution and fight corruption in a ceremony attended by one of her former staunchest critic, Álvaro Vargas Llosa (a journalist and the son of Mario who himself spoke at the ceremony via video link) as well as Venezuelan opponent Leopoldo López. In the ceremony, Fujimori acknowledged ‘the mistakes made’ by her party and apologized to Peruvians who have ‘felt affected or disappointed’ by her actions; the fact she couldn’t help but called ‘unfair’ her imprisonment during which she pretended to had have her epiphany tells you just what you need to know about the sincerity of her apologies and her commitment to democratic institutions and justice.

But her motorcade being attacked by garbage and also allegedly stones by presumed sympathizers of Castillo (be it the result of a ‘provocation’ from Fujimori or not) in the days following the physical aggression of two TV journalists at a meeting of Castillo and the deadly attack from a Shining Path dissident group, gave her an excellent opportunity to posture as a victim, to denounce violence from Castillo followers and the threat to freedoms embodied by the ‘communist’ Perú Libre candidate. After the incident, she informed Castillo she hadn’t came for ‘a debate with stones’ but for ‘a debate about proposals with the respect every Peruvian is deserving’.

This is particularly laughable coming for Fujimori, the unapologetic defender of the murderous regime of her father, but this could help her attracted the votes of undecided voters or convince voters initially leaning towards Castillo to cast a null/blank vote.

Note that Castillo has made little efforts to dispel the impression he is no better than Fujimori on human rights and democracy with stuff like blaming feminicide (138 women murdered and 5,500 missing in 2020) on ‘the idleness generated by the state, the unemployment, the delinquency’ in a recent discourse or the renewed xenophobic promise to expel all foreign delinquents (read Venezuelan migrants; there are some 1.2 million ones in Peru) within the first 72 hours in office (providing the occasion to Fujimorists to hypocritically pose as the humanitarian ones). Not to mention nobody knows which role will play Vladimir Cerrón, the owner of Perú Libre, a particularly unsavory figure who called Maduro regime a ‘democratic government’ in 2019 after an official trip to Caracas, had to apologize the same year for a tweet in which he was promising to confront the ‘Jewish Peruvian powers’, is charged in various corruption cases and is accused of having when a governor of Junín incited his followers to harass journalists and bomb the seat of a local newspaper publishing articles on his alleged corruption.

As for Castillo’s economic proposals, it seems that nobody is able to tell what a Castillo administration will actually look like, his platform having constantly changed with constant reshuffling and infighting in his campaign team (one prominent economic adviser left after few days to protest interference from Cerrón on anticorruption matters), being full of vague, unclear or unrealistic proposals, still sufficient to draw unfavorable comparisons with the massive trainwreck that was the first Alan García administration. In the last days of the campaign, one adviser of the Castillo team (even if the Castillo campaign is now denying he was actually an adviser) was caught on television during a presentation of the candidate’s agenda calling one of the proposals ‘pure bribery’ and saying he was considering casting a null vote.

Very interesting! This doesn't contradict my overall point in that this was clearly a well-planned event designed to appeal to people in Arequipa using a powerful surrogate who is from Arequipa (Vargos Llosa) but I wasn't aware of this context. I just figured that Arequipa is the sort of place that Keiko would have to take seriously, as it's a city where she's loathed but that has a significant right-wing vote. In 2011, she performed miserably in the city, as she did this time, but managed to get lots of PPK voters to back her, in spite of Vargos Llosa's Humala endorsement.

[buritobr]

Proabably, the 90% for Fujimori in Japan is not only because she is a Fujimori. In 2018, 90% of the brazilians who lived in Japan voted for Bolsonaro. Most of the brazilians and peruvians who live in Japan have japanese ancestry (sansei or nisei) and many of them are very conservative. Almost all the japanese immigration to South America came to Brazil and Peru.

[Oryxslayer]

Usually the expat vote goes for the Right, no matter the country in question. This is because you are more likely to get into the US if you have resources, education, connections, and ties to global business. Those all are usually synonymous with the right, but also Liberals like LREM. For Latin America the combination of Miami being both a destination and being dominated by anti-socialist Cubans only magnifies things. In Round one the US vote was:

Lopez Aliaga - 28.1%
de Soto - 16.7%
Fujimori - 13.4%
Mendoza - 9.8%
Forsyth - 7.8%
Lescano - 7.5%

Others - 16.6% (Including 2.9% for Castillo)

I'm pretty sure that US expats votes overwhelmingly for Biden over Trump and Canadians who live abroad tend to vote Liberal or NDP and NOT Tory.  and Israeli expats tend to be more centrist and less rightwing than Israelis in Israel

Even in Latin America the Chilean expat vote is left wing due the exiles of the dictatorships.

Chile expats in the US voted strongly for Pinera in both 2017 rounds. I don't have it on hand but I expect they voted very differently on the constitutional questions given their naturally Liberal and reformist character.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Proabably, the 90% for Fujimori in Japan is not only because she is a Fujimori. In 2018, 90% of the brazilians who lived in Japan voted for Bolsonaro. Most of the brazilians and peruvians who live in Japan have japanese ancestry (sansei or nisei) and many of them are very conservative. Almost all the japanese immigration to South America came to Brazil and Peru.

If anything, it's fascinating that so many Japanese Peruvians voted for Castillo!

[skbl17]

Ipsos/America TV exit poll:

- Fujimori: 50.3%
- Castillo: 49.7%

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Ipsos/America TV exit poll:

- Fujimori: 50.3%
- Castillo: 49.7%

Depressing. Let’s hope that rural undercount comes through.

[jaichind]

Its going to be a long night...

[Mike88]

Ipsos/America TV exit poll:

- Fujimori: 50.3%
- Castillo: 49.7%

Too close to call, and basically almost a repetition of 2016.

[Logical]

Advantage Castillo imo, given his poorer base

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Proabably, the 90% for Fujimori in Japan is not only because she is a Fujimori. In 2018, 90% of the brazilians who lived in Japan voted for Bolsonaro. Most of the brazilians and peruvians who live in Japan have japanese ancestry (sansei or nisei) and many of them are very conservative. Almost all the japanese immigration to South America came to Brazil and Peru.

If anything, it's fascinating that so many Japanese Peruvians voted for Castillo!

I heard many, many Japanese Peruvians despise the Fujimori clan and consider them a bad face to "represent" them, if you will.
Not sure how accurate that is though.

[jaichind]

I 2016 I think the exit polls had Fujimori behind by 1% or so.

[Oryxslayer]

I 2016 I think the exit polls had Fujimori behind by 1% or so.

2 had her down, 1 had her up.

[Mike88]

I 2016 I think the exit polls had Fujimori behind by 1% or so.

The IPSOS one had PPK at 50.4% and Fujimori at 49.6%.

[Mike88]

In Arequipa, the exit poll gives 67% for Castillo and 33% for Fujimori.

In Lima, Fujimori edge Castillo by a 68% to 32% margin.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

It's worth mentioning that the 2016 election was not polarized between poor rural areas and middle class urban areas in a meaningful way. Also, given that the old Fujimori base among poors in parts of Peru seems to no longer exist, there's every reason to think this election will be far more polarized than 2011 was.

[PSOL]

If the IPSOS poll is correct, well then that’s much better than the mid-40’s vote* I expected. Outside of those expectations, given the fact that Peru is indeed a conservative country, Pedro Castillo over-performed my expectations by garnering not just most nominally left parties and the endorsement of the Ethnocaceristas, but ate into a good portion of the anti-Fujimori right and centre.

Given that I expect Peru to recover from the pandemic and the economic downturn in its economy, through a parliament more open to stimulus spending along with a country more desperate to broker deals to get vaccines, I’m starting to view my previous predictions as wrong. Keiko Fujimori has the presidency and parliament for as long as she wants it, through free and fair elections or otherwise. I fully expect Peru Libre to completely falter and dissipate while some other populist indigenous and leftist parties rise a few seats, all the while JPP consolidates the Broad Front electorate.

Edit: I should clarify that I mean with the null vote excluded

[Oryxslayer]

The result with abstentions is:

44.8% Fujimori
44.1% Castillo

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

When can we expect actual results?

[Vosem]

When can we expect actual results?

Per YouTube streams, 11:30 PET.

[jamestroll]

No matter what the result is, I extend mass chaos, violence and rioting throughout the country.

[jamestroll]

 

[skbl17]

Conteo Rápido/Quick Count (Ipsos):

- Castillo: 50.2%
- Fujimori: 49.8%

[Jeppe]

The quick count underestimated Fujimori by almost 1% in 2016. Still anybody’s game...

[buritobr]

I 2016 I think the exit polls had Fujimori behind by 1% or so.

2 had her down, 1 had her up.

But the geography of the vote was different in 2016. PPK won Lima, Keiko Fujimori will win a landslide in Lima in 2021. If the polls overrate the urban vote, they would put Fujimori down in 2016 and up in 2021.