Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[Skye]

Today's loser: Peru.

[CumbrianLefty]

It might come down to which polling error is bigger - understating Fujimori due to "shy" voters (they do seem to be a thing here) or not fully expressing Castillo's support with poor rural people.

[jaichind]

It might come down to which polling error is bigger - understating Fujimori due to "shy" voters (they do seem to be a thing here) or not fully expressing Castillo's support with poor rural people.

Would there also not be some shy Castillo voters due to recent Shining Path attacks ?

[CumbrianLefty]

That also has to be very much a possibility, even if only to a modest degree.

[jaichind]

Fujimori sweeps Tokyo expatriate vote.  Not a surprise.

[buritobr]

My forecast
Keiko Fujimori 51.1%, Pedro Castillo 48.9%

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I'd argue that it's much easier for people to support Castillo than Fujimori. Anyone who is indigenous and lives in the highlands will have little reservation about voting for him but just about everyone in Lima will have massive reservations about voting for Fujimori, who is a convicted criminal, even if they'll ultimately do it to "stop communism". In these conditions, I'd expect turnout to be lower than expected in Lima vs. the highlands or for there to be lots of spoiled ballots in Lima but less in the highlands.

Fujimori's convoy being pelted with trash in Arequipa strikes me as a kind of canary in the coalmine. In my view, that's a sign of near total consolidation for Castillo in a provincial city that actually has plenty of right-wingers and non-indigenous people. Hard to see how Keiko can have a campaign there if her supporters would be attacked...

[Oryxslayer]

Fujimori's convoy being pelted with trash in Arequipa strikes me as a kind of canary in the coalmine. In my view, that's a sign of near total consolidation for Castillo in a provincial city that actually has plenty of right-wingers and non-indigenous people. Hard to see how Keiko can have a campaign there if her supporters would be attacked...

Simple, you go to a opposition activist (rather than simply voter) stronghold and feign decency, but the simple nature of you being there provokes a reaction. You end up as the seemingly decent one, despite the fact you are the provoker. Same with VOX putting up big posters in Mardid's most "Linke" style neighborhood or holding a "peaceful" march through separatist neighborhoods of Barcelona. You know what you are doing and want the reaction, not the action. It can work in both directions.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Fujimori's convoy being pelted with trash in Arequipa strikes me as a kind of canary in the coalmine. In my view, that's a sign of near total consolidation for Castillo in a provincial city that actually has plenty of right-wingers and non-indigenous people. Hard to see how Keiko can have a campaign there if her supporters would be attacked...

Simple, you go to a opposition activist (rather than simply voter) stronghold and feign decency, but the simple nature of you being there provokes a reaction. You end up as the seemingly decent one, despite the fact you are the provoker. Same with VOX putting up big posters in Mardid's most "Linke" style neighborhood or holding a "peaceful" march through separatist neighborhoods of Barcelona. You know what you are doing and want the reaction, not the action. It can work in both directions.

No offense but I don't think you understand anything about Peru or Latin America more generally. As Arequipa is Peru's 2nd largest city, it's filled with plenty of non-indigenous, middle class people who are wary of Castillo. It's the sort of city where even relatively affluent places feature indigenous people and where the slums are extensions of the highlands but it's still an urban environment where an anti-socialist/anti-indigenous candidate can expect a decent floor of support. This is evidenced by the fact that there's a section of the city where Hernando de Soto received over 30% of the vote!

Maybe the convoy intentionally went through some poor parts of the city, I cannot speak on that, but you'd absolutely expect Fujimori to actively campaign in Arequipa for reasons that aren't underhanded.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

From wikipedia:

Arequipa, unlike other big Peruvian cities with mestizo and indigenous features, has been labeled as a "Spanish island in an indigenous sea" and because of its status as a "natural oasis."

Of course, this characterization is almost certainly dated, as Arequipa's population has exploded in recent years, presumably due to inflows from indigenous people, but the notion that it's the equivalent of Vallecas is pretty absurd. If Fujimori wanted to instigate something like this, she'd send a convoy through some remote villages or, perhaps, through Cusco...

[buritobr]

Usually, elections are polarized according to socioeconomic levels, but this election in Peru is probably one of the world's most polarized.
According to the last Ipsos poll, this is the vote in which social class
A: Fujimori 75%, Castillo 17%
B: Fujimori 56%, Castillo 32%
C: Fujimori 45%, Castillo 38%
D: Fujimori 40%, Castillo 41%
E: Fujimori 25%, Castillo 54%

https://elcomercio.pe/elecciones-2021/ultimo-simulacro-publicable-el-comercio-ipsos-pedro-castillo-obtiene-511-y-keiko-fujimori-489-noticia/?ref=ecr

[Jeppe]

These are the expat voting results I've found so far.

Japan
Fujimori 92-8

Australia
Fujimori 82-18

New Zealand
Fujimori 74-26

Madrid, Spain
Fujimori 61-39

Paris, France
Fujimori 57-43

Norway
Castillo 56-44

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

It might come down to which polling error is bigger - understating Fujimori due to "shy" voters (they do seem to be a thing here) or not fully expressing Castillo's support with poor rural people.

Those results call to mind another polling error - the exclusion of (mostly right-wing) Peruvians abroad from national polling.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It might come down to which polling error is bigger - understating Fujimori due to "shy" voters (they do seem to be a thing here) or not fully expressing Castillo's support with poor rural people.

Those results call to mind another polling error - the exclusion of (mostly right-wing) Peruvians abroad from national polling.

How many expats overseas registered to vote are there?

[H. Ross Peron]

These are the expat voting results I've found so far.

Japan
Fujimori 92-8

Australia
Fujimori 82-18

New Zealand
Fujimori 74-26

Madrid, Spain
Fujimori 61-39

Paris, France
Fujimori 57-43

Norway
Castillo 56-44

Would like to see the US results

[Jeppe]

It might come down to which polling error is bigger - understating Fujimori due to "shy" voters (they do seem to be a thing here) or not fully expressing Castillo's support with poor rural people.

Those results call to mind another polling error - the exclusion of (mostly right-wing) Peruvians abroad from national polling.

How many expats overseas registered to vote are there?

About 900k registered and 220k who voted in round 1.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It might come down to which polling error is bigger - understating Fujimori due to "shy" voters (they do seem to be a thing here) or not fully expressing Castillo's support with poor rural people.

Those results call to mind another polling error - the exclusion of (mostly right-wing) Peruvians abroad from national polling.

How many expats overseas registered to vote are there?

About 900k registered and 220k who voted in round 1.

Ah, so I guess that minimizes the amount of damage that an expat Peruvian-driven polling error might cause.

[Red Velvet]

These are the expat voting results I've found so far.

Japan
Fujimori 92-8

Australia
Fujimori 82-18

New Zealand
Fujimori 74-26

Madrid, Spain
Fujimori 61-39

Paris, France
Fujimori 57-43

Norway
Castillo 56-44

Would like to see the US results

I kinda expect it to be similar to Japan in Miami lmao. You know exactly the type of Latin Americans who immigrate to Florida, the most possible right-wing types you can get in the region.

[Holmes]

These are the expat voting results I've found so far.

Japan
Fujimori 92-8

Australia
Fujimori 82-18

New Zealand
Fujimori 74-26

Madrid, Spain
Fujimori 61-39

Paris, France
Fujimori 57-43

Norway
Castillo 56-44

Would like to see the US results

Probably Fujimori. My father-in-law hates both but something about Castillo’s got him shaken up so he’s supporting Fujimori. Or rather, he would prefer her to win.

[Sir John Johns]

Fujimori's convoy being pelted with trash in Arequipa strikes me as a kind of canary in the coalmine. In my view, that's a sign of near total consolidation for Castillo in a provincial city that actually has plenty of right-wingers and non-indigenous people. Hard to see how Keiko can have a campaign there if her supporters would be attacked...

Simple, you go to a opposition activist (rather than simply voter) stronghold and feign decency, but the simple nature of you being there provokes a reaction. You end up as the seemingly decent one, despite the fact you are the provoker. Same with VOX putting up big posters in Mardid's most "Linke" style neighborhood or holding a "peaceful" march through separatist neighborhoods of Barcelona. You know what you are doing and want the reaction, not the action. It can work in both directions.

No offense but I don't think you understand anything about Peru or Latin America more generally. As Arequipa is Peru's 2nd largest city, it's filled with plenty of non-indigenous, middle class people who are wary of Castillo. It's the sort of city where even relatively affluent places feature indigenous people and where the slums are extensions of the highlands but it's still an urban environment where an anti-socialist/anti-indigenous candidate can expect a decent floor of support. This is evidenced by the fact that there's a section of the city where Hernando de Soto received over 30% of the vote!

Maybe the convoy intentionally went through some poor parts of the city, I cannot speak on that, but you'd absolutely expect Fujimori to actively campaign in Arequipa for reasons that aren't underhanded.

Actually, this will probably help Fujimori: she went to Arequipa to participate in a debate with Castillo and to take a public oath to preserve democracy, respect press freedom, defend the constitution and fight corruption in a ceremony attended by one of her former staunchest critic, Álvaro Vargas Llosa (a journalist and the son of Mario who himself spoke at the ceremony via video link) as well as Venezuelan opponent Leopoldo López. In the ceremony, Fujimori acknowledged ‘the mistakes made’ by her party and apologized to Peruvians who have ‘felt affected or disappointed’ by her actions; the fact she couldn’t help but called ‘unfair’ her imprisonment during which she pretended to had have her epiphany tells you just what you need to know about the sincerity of her apologies and her commitment to democratic institutions and justice.

But her motorcade being attacked by garbage and also allegedly stones by presumed sympathizers of Castillo (be it the result of a ‘provocation’ from Fujimori or not) in the days following the physical aggression of two TV journalists at a meeting of Castillo and the deadly attack from a Shining Path dissident group, gave her an excellent opportunity to posture as a victim, to denounce violence from Castillo followers and the threat to freedoms embodied by the ‘communist’ Perú Libre candidate. After the incident, she informed Castillo she hadn’t came for ‘a debate with stones’ but for ‘a debate about proposals with the respect every Peruvian is deserving’.

This is particularly laughable coming for Fujimori, the unapologetic defender of the murderous regime of her father, but this could help her attracted the votes of undecided voters or convince voters initially leaning towards Castillo to cast a null/blank vote.

Note that Castillo has made little efforts to dispel the impression he is no better than Fujimori on human rights and democracy with stuff like blaming feminicide (138 women murdered and 5,500 missing in 2020) on ‘the idleness generated by the state, the unemployment, the delinquency’ in a recent discourse or the renewed xenophobic promise to expel all foreign delinquents (read Venezuelan migrants; there are some 1.2 million ones in Peru) within the first 72 hours in office (providing the occasion to Fujimorists to hypocritically pose as the humanitarian ones). Not to mention nobody knows which role will play Vladimir Cerrón, the owner of Perú Libre, a particularly unsavory figure who called Maduro regime a ‘democratic government’ in 2019 after an official trip to Caracas, had to apologize the same year for a tweet in which he was promising to confront the ‘Jewish Peruvian powers’, is charged in various corruption cases and is accused of having when a governor of Junín incited his followers to harass journalists and bomb the seat of a local newspaper publishing articles on his alleged corruption.

As for Castillo’s economic proposals, it seems that nobody is able to tell what a Castillo administration will actually look like, his platform having constantly changed with constant reshuffling and infighting in his campaign team (one prominent economic adviser left after few days to protest interference from Cerrón on anticorruption matters), being full of vague, unclear or unrealistic proposals, still sufficient to draw unfavorable comparisons with the massive trainwreck that was the first Alan García administration. In the last days of the campaign, one adviser of the Castillo team (even if the Castillo campaign is now denying he was actually an adviser) was caught on television during a presentation of the candidate’s agenda calling one of the proposals ‘pure bribery’ and saying he was considering casting a null vote.

[Mike88]

Polls close in less than 10 minutes, right?

Forget that, polls close in 1 hour.

[Oryxslayer]

These are the expat voting results I've found so far.

Japan
Fujimori 92-8

Australia
Fujimori 82-18

New Zealand
Fujimori 74-26

Madrid, Spain
Fujimori 61-39

Paris, France
Fujimori 57-43

Norway
Castillo 56-44

Would like to see the US results

Usually the expat vote goes for the Right, no matter the country in question. This is because you are more likely to get into the US if you have resources, education, connections, and ties to global business. Those all are usually synonymous with the right, but also Liberals like LREM. For Latin America the combination of Miami being both a destination and being dominated by anti-socialist Cubans only magnifies things. In Round one the US vote was:

Lopez Aliaga - 28.1%
de Soto - 16.7%
Fujimori - 13.4%
Mendoza - 9.8%
Forsyth - 7.8%
Lescano - 7.5%

Others - 16.6% (Including 2.9% for Castillo)

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Night of the final day. One hour remains.

[DL]

Usually the expat vote goes for the Right, no matter the country in question. This is because you are more likely to get into the US if you have resources, education, connections, and ties to global business. Those all are usually synonymous with the right, but also Liberals like LREM. For Latin America the combination of Miami being both a destination and being dominated by anti-socialist Cubans only magnifies things. In Round one the US vote was:

Lopez Aliaga - 28.1%
de Soto - 16.7%
Fujimori - 13.4%
Mendoza - 9.8%
Forsyth - 7.8%
Lescano - 7.5%

Others - 16.6% (Including 2.9% for Castillo)

I'm pretty sure that US expats votes overwhelmingly for Biden over Trump and Canadians who live abroad tend to vote Liberal or NDP and NOT Tory.  and Israeli expats tend to be more centrist and less rightwing than Israelis in Israel

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

The Peruvian expat vote is more interesting than you'd think it would be. It seems Mendoza's strongest performances were among expats in Europe, scoring nearly 30% of the vote in many countries there.

It's worth mentioning Castillo isn't performing very differently from Humala in 2011. Since the expat vote is probably very volatile, it's hard to take much signal from this but it does seem to indicate that Castillo likely won't do much worse than Humala among well-educated middle class voters. Considering that Keiko has lost much of her rural support, that doesn't seem like a good sign for her but we'll see...

Edit: I might as well add an obligatory "stop trying to draw parallels between countries that illustrate nothing about Peru". Why would the voting patterns of Frenchmen in Israel reveal anything about Peruvian voting patterns?