Peruvian Elections and Politics: Boluarte era, political crisis continues

[Oryxslayer]

Map made at 42% in for conveniences sake. Fujimori Black, Castillo Red:



Also, thank you for shrinking the image.

[Oryxslayer]

74% (76% nation, 11% expat)

52.3% (49%) Fujimori

47.7% (44.7%) Castillo

I'm half-tempted to say it's over. Yes the count is biased towards Lima, and yes Lima is at 90%. However the issue with this bias is that the most populous parts of the hinterlands  - some which are Castillo's best areas - are comparatively not that far behind Lima. Like Moquega still has lots of Castillo votes out, but thats a tiny universe of voters compared to say Puno at 70% to Lima's 90. And Keiko still has probably 100K net expat votes to come. She also has non-Lima votes out there, with probably the biggest net basket being Piura.

https://twitter.com/Datoworld/status/1401791618949189633?s=20

^ Jurisdictions where keiko leads and their percent counted.

[Oryxslayer]

77.7% (80% nation, 11% expat)

51.94% (48.7%) Fujimori

48.06% (45%) Castillo

[Oryxslayer]

80,7% overall (83,5% country, 11% foreign)

Keiko Fujimori 51,5%
Pedro Castillo 48,5%

Castillo reducing the gap in the margins he needs to (at least 0,1% every new 1% counted) but there will still be the foreign votes in the end... If he keeps reducing the margin in the current speed it could end close to 50/50.

Puno and quite a few other Castillo areas is now ahead of the national count so it may be deceptive...

[Oryxslayer]

from a liveblog I (was) following:
[Google translate Spanish to English, for convenience of all who may read this post, is bolded]
23:26
ONPE
Piero Corvetto, director de la ONPE, señala que el conteo se llevará a cabo en cinco etapas:
Piero Corvetto, director of the ONPE, points out that the count will be carried out in five stages:
1.- Votos urbanos más cercanos a los centros de cómputo
1.- Urban votes closest to the data centers
2.- Votos urbanos alejados a los centro de cómputo.
2.- Urban votes away from the computer center.
3.- Voto Rural
3.- Rural Vote
4.- Zonas alejadas de la selva.
4.- Areas far from the jungle.
5.- Votos del extranjero.
5.- Votes from abroad.

This explains the patterns we saw in the vote count...

Interesting then that Ica, a Keiko region more populous than the average state, is now the one region way behind in the count. Most of areas are now between 70 and 85% counted, even the previously lagging castillo ones. Other lagging areas make sense if this was policy, cause they are areas like the Amazons or extreme hinterlands.

[Oryxslayer]

On the topic of Ica, its likely the Department moves towards Keiko when it finally counts. Keiko won here in round 1, and she won it in part thanks to the four province's of the department that have near 0 votes counted. She lost the Ica province in round 1 to Castillo, and it at 99% counted she leads here by the marginal result currently displayed department-wide.

[Oryxslayer]

83.2% overall (86.1% country, 11% foreign)

Keiko Fujimori 51.2% (48%)
Pedro Castillo 48.8% (45.7%)

The interesting thing now is Fujimori has a good number of departments behind the national count, and Castillo has a good number ahead of or on par with said count.

[Oryxslayer]

85.1% overall (88.2% country, 11% foreign)

Keiko Fujimori 51% (47.8%)
Pedro Castillo 49% (45.9%)

No update from Ica. I am going to keep an eye on Ica in all updates from now on.

Lima at 99%, a few small other departments at 100%. Huanuco at 90%, Puno at 94%, Ancash at 88%. Amazones really caught up this update.

Biggest basket of Castillo votes outstanding is probably Cusco.

[Oryxslayer]

(La Libertad currently isn't showing results, so I left it blank for the time being)

Yeah I noticed that as well, the site has Castillo and Fujimori's numbers swapped for a moment and had to do a reset. 87% reporting, 60.7% - 39.2% Keiko.

[Oryxslayer]

Just doing some backhand math right now. About 1/9 of the remaining national vote centers are in Ica alone, and we can expect them to be a net zero at best for Castillo. That means for his purposes the country is more at 89.6% of centers reporting presently, instead of just 88.2%. So yeah, he needs to close the gap by 0.1% per 1% counted. If its the truly "deep" rural areas that are generally left then there may be less votes per center than previously.

[Oryxslayer]

86.5% in

Keiko 50.77
Castillo 49.23

This is winnable for Castillo.

89.6% nation, 91% without Ica - which still hasn't reported. he got ahead of the 0.1% curve here.

[Oryxslayer]

Remaining departments with turnout significantly below (>10%) the national count:

AYACUCHO - 73.6% Counted, 82.25% Castillo - 17.75% Fujimori
CUSCO - 77.3% Counted, 82.1% Castillo, 17.9% Fujimori
LORETO - 55.2% Counted, 53.8% Fujimori, 46.2% Castillo
MOQUEGUA - 53.2% Counted, 76.4% Castillo, 23.6% Fujimori

ICA.

[Oryxslayer]

What % of votes does Castillo need in Cusco in order to win?

Backhand math using the round 1 total votes and the present turnout says there are probably 40K to 50K net Castillo votes at 89.6% Nation. How relevant this is though depends on its relation to the other departments.

[Oryxslayer]

87.7% overall (90.85% country, 11% foreign)

Keiko Fujimori 50.6% (47.4%)
Pedro Castillo 49.4% (46.3%)

Nothing from Ica, currently 16% of remaining vote centers. Excluding Ica we are at 92.3% of the country.

[Oryxslayer]

Ica is finally counting.

88.9% overall (92.1% country, 11% foreign)

Keiko Fujimori 50.5% (47.3%)
Pedro Castillo 49.5% (46.4%)

[Oryxslayer]

90.05% overall (93.32% country, 11.1% foreign)

Keiko Fujimori 50.35% (47.2%)
Pedro Castillo 49.65% (46.5%)

Largest total basket of votes may now be Loredo at 80-90K. These arn't however going to be anything like the south if we use the first round as a guide, and will probably be a good but not national-narrowing margins. Whoever wins here won't net very many votes from the department as a whole.

[Oryxslayer]

Getting sleep now. Wishing all of you the best of luck with following the election and whatnot.

Same, I'll probably be back in a few hours or so. Just letting others know though cause I won't be updating.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm back. First thing I check on is Loreto and it looks like things improved for Fujimori? And I agree with all the backhand math going on between the expats and the country.

[Oryxslayer]

So if you guys were to guesstimate - who will end up being the winner?

Castillo is maybe favored by a florida-style microscopic margin  - out of over 17 million votes - but there really remain a lot of unknowns. Keiko's gonna come back via the expats, but theres a lot of questions about that pool - the largest being if the measured turnout so far remains the same. The country vote meanwhile is left in 10 provinces. 3 are in the amazon, one is coastal and for Fujimori, 3 are healthy Castillo  leads, and 3 are southern indigenous blowouts. The three Amazon provinces have about 40% of the remaining vote centers, 33% are in the blowouts, 36% in the others. but how many net votes remain is again the question to be asked.

[Oryxslayer]

What will happen if the final result is a lead of 0.1 or 0.2 percent? Is there some mechanism for recounts and will this end up in the courts like it would in the US?

PPK won 2016 by 41K votes or 50.1 to 49.9. Fujimori conceded 5 days after polls closed. Things will probably be different this time.

[Oryxslayer]

Curiously, in an election with two deeply disliked candidates, the share of invalid/blank ballots is on the same level of previous elections, much lower than in the 1st round, and even lower compared with other election like 2006, for example.

And turnout is higher than in round 1. The rate of non-voting is lower than all exits predicted.

I think this can firmly be blamed on an increase in the polarization of the campaign. Its a long-proven part of voter behavior theory that turnout increases with partisan polarization. The various events during the last week of the campaign seem to have heightened the sense of fear and urgency that precipitate said turnout increases. This is the case no matter how liked or disliked a candidate, cause they simply become a vehicle to stop the other side(s).

[Oryxslayer]

Here's something that I hope will help guide analysis. Blue is 100% or insanely close to 100% of polling stations counted. Orange are departments with vote uncounted.

EDIT: Ucayali, the middle Amazon Province, has now reached 100%.

[Oryxslayer]

So basically Castillo country plus part of Loreto? I wonder if Keiko has any juice left up north.

Late edit, but the 11 remaining jurisdictions combined have their currently-counted votes as:

Castillo 60.60% (163773)
Fujimori 39.40% (106471)

Castillo still hasn't passed a 100K lead, though I'm sure the last of the country will get him there. Which is in the ballpark of "Keiko could make it back, or she may not, it all depends on expat unknowns." Probably safe to say it will be narrower than 2016.

[Oryxslayer]

Does the international processed percentage count the percentage of stations that have finished counting or the percentage of votes?

Everything is by counting station.

Also, if we do end up hitting Florida 2000/2018 style margins, there are about 1200 stations "sent to the JNE." At first glance these will likely be representative of the full count - given errors like observers and signatures are random and not correlated - but they could end up crucial in the event of a long count.

[Oryxslayer]

Live analysis of Keiko's path to victory.