Biden infrastructure/tax increase megathread

[emailking]

The Dem strategy utterly baffles me here. Manchin is not folding, and the Dems do not have the votes for anything over 2 trillion, if even that.  Their strategy seems designed to irritate Manchin, if anything, and heck, he may do a F you, and go down to 1 trillion. Then the Dems have a choice of either 1) getting nothing, with the infrastructure bill going down the tubes if the squad does their thing, in which event, the 2022 cycle will be a disaster for them, or 2) folding and looking like fools, with all that perfervid rhetoric, all hat and no cattle. If you don't have the votes, don't go there, pretending that you do. Take what you can, and wait for another day. McConnell knew what he was doing from the get-go. It appears that team Schumer did not.

I also view such massive spending as a risky scheme at present, given all the unknowns and wheels turning out there. I understand that the Dems wanted to seize the moment, and window of opportunity, that may close later and for a long time. They are doing it however without my support, but then obviously the last thing on their mind is my opinion about anything. Their loss, not mine! 

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/571605-manchin-sanders-set-for-clash-over-biden-spending-package

If it gets voted down by the Progressives, they can pass it later. They have a year and a half to pass the bipartisan bill. They could do it November 7th if they want. Maybe Manchin will still be dug in by then, but the Squad won't be. There's nothing lost by waiting a few weeks to see if Manchin and Sinema can be moved. It will eventually be law either way.

[Torie]

The Dem strategy utterly baffles me here. Manchin is not folding, and the Dems do not have the votes for anything over 2 trillion, if even that.  Their strategy seems designed to irritate Manchin, if anything, and heck, he may do a F you, and go down to 1 trillion. Then the Dems have a choice of either 1) getting nothing, with the infrastructure bill going down the tubes if the squad does their thing, in which event, the 2022 cycle will be a disaster for them, or 2) folding and looking like fools, with all that perfervid rhetoric, all hat and no cattle. If you don't have the votes, don't go there, pretending that you do. Take what you can, and wait for another day. McConnell knew what he was doing from the get-go. It appears that team Schumer did not.

I also view such massive spending as a risky scheme at present, given all the unknowns and wheels turning out there. I understand that the Dems wanted to seize the moment, and window of opportunity, that may close later and for a long time. They are doing it however without my support, but then obviously the last thing on their mind is my opinion about anything. Their loss, not mine! 

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/571605-manchin-sanders-set-for-clash-over-biden-spending-package

If it gets voted down by the Progressives, they can pass it later. They have a year and a half to pass the bipartisan bill. They could do it November 7th if they want. Maybe Manchin will still be dug in by then, but the Squad won't be. There's nothing lost by waiting a few weeks to see if Manchin and Sinema can be moved. It will eventually be law either way.

Yes, if the squad folds, that mitigates matters.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They have to come up something, Xmas is coming up and the Holidays, just like with Sinema on the View said she won't change the Filibuster even for VR the Congress as usual just like with Stimulus checks have waiting too long

The 1.2T can be signed into Law as of now and next yr we can debate the Spending

The 3.5T isn't a stimulus deal, it can wait

[jaichind]

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/biden-inheritancetax-plan-poised-be-scaled-back-congress

Biden inheritance-tax plan poised to be scaled back in Congress

[Bootes Void]

So will the end of September deadline be met? Right now it seems difficult to see it happening

[Torie]

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/biden-inheritancetax-plan-poised-be-scaled-back-congress

Biden inheritance-tax plan poised to be scaled back in Congress

It seems that the regressive idea of nixing the SALT cap is on the table, a cross subsidy from high tax states to low tax states to boot. To fantasize being that Senator from a low tax state, Joe Manchin, for a moment, my response would be that for each dollar of revenue lost from losing the SALT cap, I am going to subtract dollar for dollar what I would otherwise support as my max for the size of the reconciliation bill.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Thanksgiving and Xmas are coming up and Redistricting and Sinema and Manchin played politics over the Summer on VR and they are absolutely right to pass the infrastructure bill before Reconciliation, the Spending bill isn't that urgent it's not a Stimulus or unemployment check bill

[Pres Mike]

I still think Manchin is hot air. He ended up voting for the complete 1.8 trillion American recovery plan

He may not vote for 3.5 trillion but I doubt he’ll only go only for a trillion

[Person Man]

I still think Manchin is hot air. He ended up voting for the complete 1.8 trillion American recovery plan

He may not vote for 3.5 trillion but I doubt he’ll only go only for a trillion

I think if the economy slows down in the next few weeks, he might be willing to do more like 2.5 trillion instead of 1.5 trillion.

[politicallefty]

House progressives have next to no history whatsoever of actually pulling the trigger on voting down Democratic priorities, unlike their moderate nice guy FF brethren. Congress-watchers should assume that their threats to do so are empty until and unless they actually go through with it. Remember that five or six of them briefly threatened to sink the ARP too.

I think progressives in the House have been given the wink and nod from Speaker Pelosi. She knows that the bipartisan infrastructure bill is insufficient going into the midterms. I think they have tacit approval to kill it if the so-called moderates try to make the reconciliation bill practically worthless.

It's likely that we'll have to go below $3.5T, but anything near $1-1.5T is unacceptable.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

House progressives have next to no history whatsoever of actually pulling the trigger on voting down Democratic priorities, unlike their moderate nice guy FF brethren. Congress-watchers should assume that their threats to do so are empty until and unless they actually go through with it. Remember that five or six of them briefly threatened to sink the ARP too.

I think progressives in the House have been given the wink and nod from Speaker Pelosi. She knows that the bipartisan infrastructure bill is insufficient going into the midterms. I think they have tacit approval to kill it if the so-called moderates try to make the reconciliation bill practically worthless.

It's likely that we'll have to go below $3.5T, but anything near $1-1.5T is unacceptable.

How many progressives in the house are needed to sink the bill? The squad alone wouldn't be enough as I assume at least the GOP members of the Problems Solver's caucus vote for it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

House progressives have next to no history whatsoever of actually pulling the trigger on voting down Democratic priorities, unlike their moderate nice guy FF brethren. Congress-watchers should assume that their threats to do so are empty until and unless they actually go through with it. Remember that five or six of them briefly threatened to sink the ARP too.

I think progressives in the House have been given the wink and nod from Speaker Pelosi. She knows that the bipartisan infrastructure bill is insufficient going into the midterms. I think they have tacit approval to kill it if the so-called moderates try to make the reconciliation bill practically worthless.

It's likely that we'll have to go below $3.5T, but anything near $1-1.5T is unacceptable.

Manchin is the final Arbitor of this bill, this is a Spending bill not a Stimulus bill, he is on MTP now and said his priorities are the 1.2T infrastructure not 3=5T

I fully agree with Manchin on this

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Here is Manchin, he said just now on MTP along with Sinema, they are against the 3T bill


https://www.yahoo.com/gma/manchin-sanders-odds-over-3-140220554.html


Biden low Approvals have something to do with it as well he doesn't have 59% Approvals, but if D's won on 2022/ they can pass both bills

If they net gain seats

[Torie]

What Manchin is saying to me is that at the present time the max number for a reconciliation bill that he would support is zero. He wants to get passed the infrastructure bill, and then start over on reconciliation, using a different approach, and with different priorities, and maybe something will evolve next year. Hey, Joe, says the talking head, the progressives are holding your infrastructure bill hostage, so what you want is not what you will get. Joe serenely smiles. Well, we will see what happens. He knows the progressives are not really going to go there, that would be political malpractice, and even if they did want to burn the barn down, they don't have enough votes to do so. He plans to just wait them out, and watch them fold and fail.

On another show he said 1 trillion to 1.5 trillion, but only if the tax code is revised in a way he finds acceptable on the revenue raising side, and at the moment it isn't. And he is in no rush, unlike with the infrastructure bill.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/12/manchin-senate-spending-agenda-511482

[CookieDamage]

House progressives have next to no history whatsoever of actually pulling the trigger on voting down Democratic priorities, unlike their moderate nice guy FF brethren. Congress-watchers should assume that their threats to do so are empty until and unless they actually go through with it. Remember that five or six of them briefly threatened to sink the ARP too.

I think progressives in the House have been given the wink and nod from Speaker Pelosi. She knows that the bipartisan infrastructure bill is insufficient going into the midterms. I think they have tacit approval to kill it if the so-called moderates try to make the reconciliation bill practically worthless.

It's likely that we'll have to go below $3.5T, but anything near $1-1.5T is unacceptable.

Even 2.5 or 2.8T would be acceptable and a true compromise. Moderate heroes on this site backing up Manchin as if he's the Senate Autocrat is very weird.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Manchin already said as the final arbitor is 1/1.5T and said he isn't the only one in this, which means Tester or Sinema, the Senate hasn't gotten rid of Fillibuster even if they did, they only have 47 votes without Tester, Manchin or Sima, there won't be any 3.5 or 2T without Manchin

Forget the Squad on this, they have zero to do with Senate rules

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

By the way, Manchin said hes not on board with another Stimulus check because there are 11M jobs and 8M unemployment, that's why they don't have the votes for 300 Stimulus checks

Yeah we really got shellshocked when Cunningham and Gideon lost we could of had 52 Seats already

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

House progressives have next to no history whatsoever of actually pulling the trigger on voting down Democratic priorities, unlike their moderate nice guy FF brethren. Congress-watchers should assume that their threats to do so are empty until and unless they actually go through with it. Remember that five or six of them briefly threatened to sink the ARP too.

I think progressives in the House have been given the wink and nod from Speaker Pelosi. She knows that the bipartisan infrastructure bill is insufficient going into the midterms. I think they have tacit approval to kill it if the so-called moderates try to make the reconciliation bill practically worthless.

It's likely that we'll have to go below $3.5T, but anything near $1-1.5T is unacceptable.

Even 2.5 or 2.8T would be acceptable and a true compromise. Moderate heroes on this site backing up Manchin as if he's the Senate Autocrat is very weird.

That’s been especially weird about the responses to this thread, the amount of posters that seem to think that not doing everything Joe Manchin wants is unreasonable.

[Person Man]

House progressives have next to no history whatsoever of actually pulling the trigger on voting down Democratic priorities, unlike their moderate nice guy FF brethren. Congress-watchers should assume that their threats to do so are empty until and unless they actually go through with it. Remember that five or six of them briefly threatened to sink the ARP too.

I think progressives in the House have been given the wink and nod from Speaker Pelosi. She knows that the bipartisan infrastructure bill is insufficient going into the midterms. I think they have tacit approval to kill it if the so-called moderates try to make the reconciliation bill practically worthless.

It's likely that we'll have to go below $3.5T, but anything near $1-1.5T is unacceptable.

Even 2.5 or 2.8T would be acceptable and a true compromise. Moderate heroes on this site backing up Manchin as if he's the Senate Autocrat is very weird.

That’s been especially weird about the responses to this thread, the amount of posters that seem to think that not doing everything Joe Manchin wants is unreasonable.

At a certain point, we gotta punt rather just letting Manchin have whatever he wants.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's if they won in 2022 and net gain 52 or more S seats plus the H they can amend this

Manchin said 1.2T should be passed but there shouldn't be a rush to pass the spending 3.5T

[jaichind]

Bloomberg News report that House Democrats Set to Propose Corporate Tax Rate of 26.5%. The top rate on capital gains would rise from 20% to 25% versus 39.6% that Biden wanted.  I assume this is for those with AGI above $1 million.

[Frodo]

We need more immigrants:

Skilled Workers Are Scarce, Posing a Challenge for Biden’s Infrastructure Plan
One estimate says the bill would add $1.4 trillion to the U.S. economy over eight years, but without enough workers, efforts to strengthen roads and public transit could be set back.

Mr. Biden has hailed the $1 trillion infrastructure bill as a way to create millions of jobs, but as the country faces a dire shortage of skilled workers, researchers and economists say companies may find it difficult to fill all of those positions.

The bill could generate new jobs in industries critical to keeping the nation’s public works systems running, such as construction, transportation and energy. S&P Global Ratings estimated that the bill would lift productivity and economic growth, adding $1.4 trillion to the U.S. economy over eight years. But if there is not enough labor to keep up with the demand, efforts to strengthen the nation’s highways, bridges and public transit could be set back.

“Do we have the work force ready right now to take care of this? Absolutely not,” said Beverly Scott, the vice chair of the President’s National Infrastructure Advisory Council.

A recent U.S. Chamber of Commerce survey found that 88 percent of commercial construction contractors reported moderate-to-high levels of difficulty finding skilled workers, and more than a third had to turn down work because of labor deficiencies. The industry could face a shortage of at least two million workers through 2025, according to an estimate from Construction Industry Resources, a data firm in Kentucky.

[Person Man]

We need more immigrants:

Skilled Workers Are Scarce, Posing a Challenge for Biden’s Infrastructure Plan
One estimate says the bill would add $1.4 trillion to the U.S. economy over eight years, but without enough workers, efforts to strengthen roads and public transit could be set back.

Mr. Biden has hailed the $1 trillion infrastructure bill as a way to create millions of jobs, but as the country faces a dire shortage of skilled workers, researchers and economists say companies may find it difficult to fill all of those positions.

The bill could generate new jobs in industries critical to keeping the nation’s public works systems running, such as construction, transportation and energy. S&P Global Ratings estimated that the bill would lift productivity and economic growth, adding $1.4 trillion to the U.S. economy over eight years. But if there is not enough labor to keep up with the demand, efforts to strengthen the nation’s highways, bridges and public transit could be set back.

“Do we have the work force ready right now to take care of this? Absolutely not,” said Beverly Scott, the vice chair of the President’s National Infrastructure Advisory Council.

A recent U.S. Chamber of Commerce survey found that 88 percent of commercial construction contractors reported moderate-to-high levels of difficulty finding skilled workers, and more than a third had to turn down work because of labor deficiencies. The industry could face a shortage of at least two million workers through 2025, according to an estimate from Construction Industry Resources, a data firm in Kentucky.

Is it a work ethic or population issue? I’m honestly asking a question.

[Matty]

The democratic party is currently struggling to get enough votes to pass some pretty basic and vanilla stuff.

If this doesn't make you extremely skeptical that dems can pass something like medicare 4 all, I don't know what to tell you.

[Person Man]

The democratic party is currently struggling to get enough votes to pass some pretty basic and vanilla stuff.

If this doesn't make you extremely skeptical that dems can pass something like medicare 4 all, I don't know what to tell you.

It's about at the level of what happened when the Republicans held the reigns with their last trifecta.