MI-GOV Megathread: 👵🏻 Gram died alone.

[GeorgiaModerate]

FiveThirtyEight model expects Kelly to win the primary and gives Whitmer a 91% chance of beating him.

Thats because 538 are dem hacks who want Whitmer to win, thats why they have Kelly leading. It will probably be Dixon and she's got no worse than a 50 50 chance

Dixon would be significantly below a 50% chance to win, although I agree she's probably the strongest remaining R candidate.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like MI Government will have a divided government for quite a long time if Whitmer ends up winning in 2022. Even though the legislative maps have been "ungerrymandered", perhaps a bit too much, Dems still have uphill geography that is unlikely to flip and they tend to underperform downballot.

[wbrocks67]

They're really making it easy on Whitmer.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1542660575976734721

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

They're really making it easy on Whitmer.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1542660575976734721

Whats Soldano like wbrocks? To me he looks like one of the stronger ones but idk

[Politician]

Whoever Trump endorses is probably going to be the Republican nominee here.

[President Johnson]

They're really making it easy on Whitmer.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1542660575976734721

The same as in senate races. I feel like Republicans are way too overconfident that they win regardless instead of playing it safe as the Democrats did in 2018. They focused on bread and butter issues and nominated strong candidates fitting their districts/states.

That again tells you that one party and its base moved way to the extreme while the other party just slighty moved. Yet I hear the media often talk about how "Democrats moved far-left".

[Politician]

They're really making it easy on Whitmer.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1542660575976734721

The same as in senate races. I feel like Republicans are way too overconfident that they win regardless instead of playing it safe as the Democrats did in 2018. They focused on bread and butter issues and nominated strong candidates fitting their districts/states.

That again tells you that one party and its base moved way to the extreme while the other party just slighty moved. Yet I hear the media often talk about how "Democrats moved far-left".

Democrats have moved far-left in the last 15 years. Notice how there are virtually no real blue dogs left?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They're really making it easy on Whitmer.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1542660575976734721

The same as in senate races. I feel like Republicans are way too overconfident that they win regardless instead of playing it safe as the Democrats did in 2018. They focused on bread and butter issues and nominated strong candidates fitting their districts/states.

That again tells you that one party and its base moved way to the extreme while the other party just slighty moved. Yet I hear the media often talk about how "Democrats moved far-left".

The Rs and some D's are basing it solely in Approvals and the IPSOS poll that had Biden Approvals at 36 percent had 7 percent of Rs Approval of him having said that the likely Scenario is a 23o not 241 RH and a 52/48 D S but that's now PA, OH, NC open seats and WI and FL R inc S seats are vulnerable the Rs aren't holding all their vulnerable seats in the Senate ESPECIALLY the open ones and wave insurance is a 218/217  DH and Crist even in Environment can win he looks like Johnathah OHurley I had a dream he beat DeSantis

[wbrocks67]

They're really making it easy on Whitmer.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1542660575976734721

The same as in senate races. I feel like Republicans are way too overconfident that they win regardless instead of playing it safe as the Democrats did in 2018. They focused on bread and butter issues and nominated strong candidates fitting their districts/states.

That again tells you that one party and its base moved way to the extreme while the other party just slighty moved. Yet I hear the media often talk about how "Democrats moved far-left".

Democrats have moved far-left in the last 15 years. Notice how there are virtually no real blue dogs left?

Mainstream Democrats have not moved as far left as Rs have moved right.

[President Johnson]

They're really making it easy on Whitmer.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1542660575976734721

The same as in senate races. I feel like Republicans are way too overconfident that they win regardless instead of playing it safe as the Democrats did in 2018. They focused on bread and butter issues and nominated strong candidates fitting their districts/states.

That again tells you that one party and its base moved way to the extreme while the other party just slighty moved. Yet I hear the media often talk about how "Democrats moved far-left".

Democrats have moved far-left in the last 15 years. Notice how there are virtually no real blue dogs left?

Blue Dogs were essentially center-right, and the majority of the Democratic Party is center-left. Not even Bernie is "far left" by any serious definition, he's de facto a Social Democrat. Obviously cultural issues change over time and society generally becomes more liberal on some issues such as support for same-sex-marriage.

Of course, Republicans like to fearmonger and anything to the left of Joe Manchin is a socialist or communist in their books. But it's objectively not true, and voting records and positions of Republican officeholders have moved far more to the right than Democrats moved to the left:

https://twitter.com/pewresearch/status/1501997074266656772

[Politician]

They're really making it easy on Whitmer.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1542660575976734721

The same as in senate races. I feel like Republicans are way too overconfident that they win regardless instead of playing it safe as the Democrats did in 2018. They focused on bread and butter issues and nominated strong candidates fitting their districts/states.

That again tells you that one party and its base moved way to the extreme while the other party just slighty moved. Yet I hear the media often talk about how "Democrats moved far-left".

Democrats have moved far-left in the last 15 years. Notice how there are virtually no real blue dogs left?

Blue Dogs were essentially center-right, and the majority of the Democratic Party is center-left. Not even Bernie is "far left" by any serious definition, he's de facto a Social Democrat. Obviously cultural issues change over time and society generally becomes more liberal on some issues such as support for same-sex-marriage.

Of course, Republicans like to fearmonger and anything to the left of Joe Manchin is a socialist or communist in their books. But it's objectively not true, and voting records and positions of Republican officeholders have moved far more to the right than Democrats moved to the left:

https://twitter.com/pewresearch/status/1501997074266656772

"Blue Dogs were center right"

And are Republicans such as Phil Scott, Charlie Baker, and others not center-left? The GOP has a much larger ideological tent than the Democrats, who hate people such as Schrader and Cuellar who still vote with Biden 96% of the time while some Republicans vote with Biden nearly half the time.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

They're really making it easy on Whitmer.

https://twitter.com/tripgabriel/status/1542660575976734721

The same as in senate races. I feel like Republicans are way too overconfident that they win regardless instead of playing it safe as the Democrats did in 2018. They focused on bread and butter issues and nominated strong candidates fitting their districts/states.

That again tells you that one party and its base moved way to the extreme while the other party just slighty moved. Yet I hear the media often talk about how "Democrats moved far-left".

Democrats have moved far-left in the last 15 years. Notice how there are virtually no real blue dogs left?

Blue Dogs were essentially center-right, and the majority of the Democratic Party is center-left. Not even Bernie is "far left" by any serious definition, he's de facto a Social Democrat. Obviously cultural issues change over time and society generally becomes more liberal on some issues such as support for same-sex-marriage.

Of course, Republicans like to fearmonger and anything to the left of Joe Manchin is a socialist or communist in their books. But it's objectively not true, and voting records and positions of Republican officeholders have moved far more to the right than Democrats moved to the left:

https://twitter.com/pewresearch/status/1501997074266656772

"Blue Dogs were center right"

And are Republicans such as Phil Scott, Charlie Baker, and others not center-left? The GOP has a much larger ideological tent than the Democrats, who hate people such as Schrader and Cuellar who still vote with Biden 96% of the time while some Republicans vote with Biden nearly half the time.

Both parties are broadly moderate big-tent, and have been so for decades.

[Senator Incitatus]

"Blue Dogs were center right"

And are Republicans such as Phil Scott, Charlie Baker, and others not center-left? The GOP has a much larger ideological tent than the Democrats, who hate people such as Schrader and Cuellar who still vote with Biden 96% of the time while some Republicans vote with Biden nearly half the time.

No, they are not.

[wbrocks67]

Definitely a possible great turnout pusher for D statewide candidates this fall:

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1544486114345508864

[ProgressiveModerate]

Definitely a possible great turnout pusher for D statewide candidates this fall:

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1544486114345508864

The abortion ballot thing will almost surely pass in MI. Honestly though this is one of those races where I can truly say basically everything that could've worked in Dems favour has, so unless something dramatically changes (which is possible), a Dem L in this race likely spells trouble in a lot of other places.

[NewYorkExpress]

A lawsuit is being filed seeking to keep Ryan Kelley off the ballot.

A lawsuit filed in the Michigan Court of Appeals on Thursday aims to prevent Republican gubernatorial candidate Ryan Kelley from appearing on the ballot after he was charged in connection with the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection.

The suit, filed by Michigan citizen Lee Estes with the help of progressive nonprofit Progress Michigan, claims that Kelley’s alleged involvement in the insurrection disqualifies him from appearing on the ballot for the general election.


Kelley pleaded not guilty to four misdemeanor charges related to the insurrection last week, arguing that he was exercising his First Amendment rights, after being arrested by the FBI last month.

Footage from Jan. 6 shows Kelley climbed the U.S. Capitol to get to the northwest courtyard during the riot, and can be seen in the video “using his hands to support another rioter who is pulling the metal barricade,” the lawsuit claims.

“He is a clear and present danger to democracy in Michigan,” it reads.

The suit asks Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) and the Board of State Canvassers to declare Kelley ineligible for both the August Republican primary, in which he is the front-runner, and the November general election based on the charges filed against him.

[CascadianIndy]

https://twitter.com/CraigDMauger/status/1548050415593275395

this isn't a clown car at this point, it's the Hagenbeck-Wallace Circus Train Wreck of 1918

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/CraigDMauger/status/1548050415593275395

this isn't a clown car at this point, it's the Hagenbeck-Wallace Circus Train Wreck of 1918

If Whitmer is re-elected and elected president one day this campaign will need a section in her presidential library explaining how everything went just right for her.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Whitmer is challenging Chris Coons for the luckiest person in US politics at this point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Whitmer is challenging Chris Coons for the luckiest person in US politics at this point.

D's aren't gonna lose all their rust belt Govs anyways an R sweep wasn't in the cards

This isn't 2010 revisited because navk in 2010  we had 10% unemployment, eventhough Biden Approvals are the same as Obama was in 2010 D's have a slight edge on GCB

That's what I keep telling Rs they still think it's a 2010 Environment despite the insurrection commission

[Tekken_Guy]

Whitmer is challenging Chris Coons for the luckiest person in US politics at this point.

Rick Scott?

[Sir Mohamed]

Definitely a possible great turnout pusher for D statewide candidates this fall:

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1544486114345508864

Great, this is absolutely going to pass and perhaps give Dems a few extra points in turnout.

Purely from a political perspective, it may have been better on the 2024 ballot instead, huh?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Definitely a possible great turnout pusher for D statewide candidates this fall:

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1544486114345508864

Great, this is absolutely going to pass and perhaps give Dems a few extra points in turnout.

Purely from a political perspective, it may have been better on the 2024 ballot instead, huh?

No, certifying it as soon as possible is the right move, plus there still is a real chance Rs gains trifecta and flip the court and try to do some funny buisness by 2024.

Democrats/liberal groups have used the ballot initiative in MI quite well imo, scoring them a lot of wins when the state government is deadlocked. Just look at how hood the MIRC has been for them lol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Alot of users are gonna have the wrong maps on Eday it's not gonna be ab R sweep look at the polls not Approvals

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/CraigDMauger/status/1548050415593275395

this isn't a clown car at this point, it's the Hagenbeck-Wallace Circus Train Wreck of 1918

can someone explain what this is / how this is good for Whitmer?