Senedd Cymru (Welsh Parliament) election, 6 May 2021

[ElectionObserver]

Ah, an election on what I'd consider to be 'home turf'.


I think it's clear Labour will be a part of the administration after the election. Whether that's alone in a majority (unlikely) or minority (more likely), or in coalition with Plaid Cymru or the Lib Dems.
The difficulty working out seats is the AMS additional member system. Relatively small changes in the vote in the regional list could see the likes of AWAP/Reform UK/ UKIP with 8 seats or could see them with 0 if they manage to split the vote in the wrong way for them.

On polling, Welsh polling is pretty scarce and has had variable accuracy over previous elections.

Only Yougov puts out multiple polls each year and they are sponsored by ITV Wales and Cardiff University. I'd expect a couple more before election day.
Their March 16-19 constituency figures were: Lab 32. Con 30. Plaid 23. LD 5 and others 10.
Their Feb 19-22 constituency figures were: Lab 33. Con 28. Plaid 22. LD 4 and others 14.

ICM also publishes an annual poll on March 1st each year for BBC Wales.
Their constituency figures were: Lab 39. Con 24. Plaid 24. LD 4 and others 8.

Polling always gives the non-major parties a greater share on the second vote. In the real election there is always less vote splitting than polling suggests, though there is some. I think some people might think they are being asked about their second preference or something.

It should be pointed out that Yougov has been giving the Conservative party consistently bigger leads above Labour on UK-wide polls in comparison to other reputable pollsters. I'm not sure if the same thing is happening here. It did in 2016 when Yougov were predicting gains for the Conservatives and they actually lost seats.

[ElectionObserver]

https://www.flintshire.gov.uk/en/PDFFiles/Elections-and-Electoral-Registration/Notice-of-elections-2021/Senedd-SOPN-and-NOP-Delyn-Constituency.pdf

Have a look at the address for the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Candidate.

There is no Abolish candidate.

I think you are talking about the Gwlad candidate. They are a minor party which strongly supports independence.

[ElectionObserver]

https://www.flintshire.gov.uk/en/PDFFiles/Elections-and-Electoral-Registration/Notice-of-elections-2021/Senedd-SOPN-and-NOP-Delyn-Constituency.pdf

Have a look at the address for the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Candidate.

What actually happened is I pasted the wrong URL, and it turns out I've found something more egregious! The original post intended to show an Abolish candidate from England, and not near the Welsh Border either...

Quite a few of the Gwlad candidates live outside of Wales. God knows where they find them.

It's the same for several other parties though.

[ElectionObserver]

Two polls out in the last couple of days which is great considering Wales doesn't get many polls.
The polls are both pretty good for Labour though they aren't exactly similar in numbers. It's not just Labour, but the massive difference in Conservative and Plaid Cymru's performance in each poll. Yougov is the only regular pollster of Wales and this is Opinium's first time. That's not to say which one is right or wrong though. In UK polls Yougov have been giving Labour lower numbers than other pollsters.


Yougov for ITV Wales/ Cardiff University (18/4-21/4)
          Constituency / Regional
Labour - 35% / 33%
Conservative - 24% / 22%
Plaid Cymru - 24% / 23%
Lib Dems - 3% / 4%
AWAP - 3% / 7%
Green - 3% / 5%
Others - 7% / 6%

Opinium for Sky News (9/4-19/4)
         Constituency / Regional
Labour - 40% / 38%
Conservative - 30% / 27%
Plaid Cymru - 19% / 19%
Lib Dems - 4% / 4%
AWAP - Crazily didn't ask so is in others.
Green - - / 5%
Others - 7% / 7%

[ElectionObserver]

Well the one was done after Andrew R.T. Davies's hilariously woeful debate performance so maybe that's a factor - no, it won't be, not enough people will have watched it. Though he will have looked bad on TV news clips?

Hardly a bit voting demographic but his interview managed to get on HIGNFY.

They were hardly kind to him though. He was the butt of the joke and came across as a bit of an idiot.


Time is starting to run out for the campaigns now. For those who don't know, postal votes across Wales started to be posted out last Friday (16/4) and most people received them through the past week.  I'd guess that many have already been sent back.
I don't know the exact figures, but postal voters make up around a quarter of the electorate and will make up over a third of voters come election day.

[ElectionObserver]

Labour obviously will win this, but who would they turn to, to pass legislation?  Doesn't look like Labour + Liberal Democrats will be feasible although Labour + Plaid Cymru will be as well as Labour + Tories.  Labour and Tories have little in common so doubt they rely on them much.  I believe Plaid Cymru is left of centre like Labour, but is pro-independence so is that an issue or not?  Sorry not familiar with Welsh politics.  Understand British nationally but not Welsh or Scottish very well.

The only possible outcomes from this election are:

Labour majority (unlikely).
Labour minority (likely).
Labour - Plaid Cymru coalition or confidence and supply (likely).
Labour - Lib Dem coalition or confidence and supply (unlikely).

Anyone who thinks anything else is delusional. Plaid Cymru as it is today will never go into an agreement with the Conservatives and there is absolutely no way Labour and Plaid Cymru combined have fewer than 30 seats. The Lib Dems are less likely because it's very possible they will not win any seats and if they do it will be one or two at most.

[ElectionObserver]

My prediction is
Labour on 27.
Conservative on 17.
Plaid Cymru on 12.
AWAP on 4.

The Lib Dems are close to 50/50, but I think they probably won't get a seat. Everyone else has no chance of winning anything.

[ElectionObserver]

The count has finished for the night.

The running total is
Lab: 30
Con: 12
PC: 9
LD: 1

My guess is that the remaining 8 seats will go 4 to Con and 4 to PC.
That would mean Lab+1, Con+5, PC+1, LD+/-0 and UKIP-7.
This is just my educated guess though and it might be slightly different.

Labour has an effective majority if Elin Jones remains as presiding officer.

Looks like in Wales, Labour vote held up much better than in England.  In particular asides Vale of Clwyd which was a nail biter, it appears Labour held most of the red wall seats they lost in general election so any reason for this and is Welsh Labour perhaps a model for a revival in England?

I think that's a massive understatement. Labour is Wales held up *MUCH* better than Labour did in England.

The North Wales seats were supposed to vote similarly to the red wall English seats. In the end , they voted far more for Labour than their English counterparts. Labour were so close in Vale of Clwyd and probably would have held on if the incumbent hadn't retired.

Based on English numbers, the Conservatives would have easily taken Delyn, Clwyd South, Wrexham and Vale of Glamorgan when Labour actually advanced in most. They would have also been very competitive in several other seats which weren't in anyway close.

[ElectionObserver]

Mark Drakeford is better known than Keir Starmer in Wales. His government got to take much more credit for the coronavirus response/vaccine rollout than English and Scottish Labour did. The SNP also seems to doing relatively well despite its scandals - perhaps people throughout the country are just getting behind their state government, or Westminster in the absence of one.

I think this point can not be underestimated. In opinion polling before 2019, the UK Labour leader was consistently better known than the Welsh Labour leader. Since Covid, Drakeford's numbers are basically the same as Boris Johnson in terms of numbers who can give an opinion and notably higher than Keir Starmer.

Never has a Welsh politician been so well known.

[ElectionObserver]

This make drakeford a future leadership candidate?

Of UK Labour?

Definitely not.

I don't want to sound unkind, but...
He's almost 70 and has the charisma of the dullest polytechnic (or community college for you Americans) lecturer. I don't think he has any ambition to go for it whatsoever either.

One advantage he would have in England is that he comes across as old-school Labour rather than the modern metropolitan Keir Starmer which is going down like a cup of cold sick in some of Labour's traditional heartlands.

If you want to see somebody outside of Westminsiter who clearly wants the job, look at Manchester Metro mayor Andy Burnham.



On the government, my feeling is Labour will go for a minority administration. They can easily get support from the single Lib Dem or Plaid Cymru on an issue by issue level and won't have any great difficulty putting forward a legislative programme.

[ElectionObserver]

Labour is, as I expected, going to go into minority government with 30/60 seats.