Senedd Cymru (Welsh Parliament) election, 6 May 2021

[Pilchard]

I'm going to de-lurk to start this thread as I haven't seen one yet, apologies if it's a duplicate.

Although most of the attention on 6 May will probably be on Scotland and Hartlepool, there'll also be an election for the newly renamed Senedd (also known as the Welsh Parliament, although it appears Senedd has stuck in most English language usage outside of those who continue to call it the Assembly). It'll be the first elections where 16-17 year olds and eligible foreign nationals can vote.

The 2016 result in terms of seats won was Labour 29, Plaid Cymru 12, Conservative 11, UKIP 7 and Lib Dems 1. Since then there's been a Labour-led government joined by the sole Lib Dem Kirsty Williams, and Dafydd Elis-Thomas who left Plaid to sit as an independent. Mark Drakeford replaced Carwyn Jones as First Minister at the end of 2018.

Other party changes since the last election included Neil McEvoy being kicked out of Plaid and forming a new party (eventually named Propel, after both Welsh National Party and Welsh Nation Party were rejected by the Electoral Commission). The UKIP group scattered in several different directions with Neil Hamilton now their only remaining MS. Mark Reckless joined the Conservative group in 2017, left in 2019 to start a Brexit Party group with three other ex-UKIP MSs, before announcing that they would campaign to abolish the Senedd (and for some reason replace it with a directly elected First Minister), prompting the other three to leave and form the 'Independent Alliance for Reform'. Reckless subsequently joined Abolish the Welsh Assembly, who now have two MSs.

As I've been writing this YouGov have released their latest ITV Wales/Cardiff Uni poll from 16-19 March, showing things may be closer than expected:

Constituency:
Labour 32%
Conservative: 30%
Plaid Cymru: 23%
Lib Dem: 5%
Reform UK: 3%
Green: 2%
Others: 5% (presumably including Abolish)

List:
Labour: 31%
Conservative: 28%
Plaid Cymru: 22%
Abolish: 7%
Lib Dem: 4%
Green: 3%
Others: 4% (presumably including Reform UK)

Despite the narrowing polls it's still likely that Labour will be the largest party and the main question is what flavour of Labour government will be formed. The Lib Dems' hopes will probably rest on trying to retain their sole constituency seat in Brecon and Radnorshire, although Kirsty Williams is stepping down. A coalition may be needed with Plaid who seem set for some modest gains but with no major breakthrough in sight. And although there have been a number of headlines recently about the gradual increase in support for independence, events of the past year have hardened opinions at the other end of the constitutional spectrum as well and Abolish could pick up a few list seats.

Anyway, I'll leave it to others to provide more meaningful insight.

[Oryxslayer]

Asking as an outsider: is there any real chance of the Conservatives and Plaid working together? Yeah they would never nationallly, but nobody but Labour has ever governed since devolution and that is always a potential motivator.

Given Labour's geographic advantage in the valleys they could probably still win the most constituency seats even if they lost the constituency vote, so yeah they will still be the first party. The first place party though is not always the most powerful.

[beesley]

Asking as an outsider: is there any real chance of the Conservatives and Plaid working together? Yeah they would never federally, but nobody but Labour has ever governed since devolution and that is always a potential motivator.

Given Labour's geographic advantage in the valleys they could probably still win the most constituency seats even if they lost the constituency vote, so yeah they will still be the first party. The first place party though is not always the most powerful.

I think this answers the question for now: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-56286626

[Coldstream]

It will be interesting to see how the far right vote breaks down. The rump UKIP, Reform and the AWAP are all putting effort in to getting elected since it’s their best shot at getting representation anywhere higher than a council. But if they split the list vote too much it could mean very few of them get in.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A word of warning: YG/IWA polls tend to be very, very volatile during the pre-campaign and early-to-middle campaign periods. Late campaign polling tends to be reasonable, but it is very much a case of  caveat emptor before that point. The general record (i.e. of all firms) of elections for what used to be called the Assembly is pretty poor, with a tendency of polling to exaggerate (sometimes massively) electoral movement. And o/c in 2003 they were just flat-out and embarrassingly wrong.

[brucejoel99]

As I've been writing this YouGov have released their latest ITV Wales/Cardiff Uni poll from 16-19 March, showing things may be closer than expected:

Constituency:
Labour 32%
Conservative: 30%
Plaid Cymru: 23%
Lib Dem: 5%
Reform UK: 3%
Green: 2%
Others: 5% (presumably including Abolish)

List:
Labour: 31%
Conservative: 28%
Plaid Cymru: 22%
Abolish: 7%
Lib Dem: 4%
Green: 3%
Others: 4% (presumably including Reform UK)

Tory vaccination bump?

Despite the narrowing polls it's still likely that Labour will be the largest party and the main question is what flavour of Labour government will be formed. The Lib Dems' hopes will probably rest on trying to retain their sole constituency seat in Brecon and Radnorshire, although Kirsty Williams is stepping down. A coalition may be needed with Plaid who seem set for some modest gains but with no major breakthrough in sight. And although there have been a number of headlines recently about the gradual increase in support for independence, events of the past year have hardened opinions at the other end of the constitutional spectrum as well and Abolish could pick up a few list seats.

Yeah, don't let it be forgotten that Welsh Labour have won every single major election in Wales for nearly a century now (& even in 2017, the Tories were all hyped-up by some early polling, only to then lose seats in the actual election). 'Til the actual results are in, I have no reason to believe that they won't do so again.

[CumbrianLefty]

If true, would mean the Tories are doing still better - and Labour worse - than even at the 2019 GE. Since all of a single GB-wide poll this year has (minimally) shown this, that alone justifies a degree of scepticism. Plus aren't Drakeford's personal ratings holding up pretty well?

(whilst the *Welsh* Tories are led by pretty much a nonentity)

[beesley]

If you took the poll as accurate, Labour would get 24 seats on a UNS. That of course would be a ludicrous way to project things with any degree of certainty, given that would have the Tories gaining Cardiff North but not some of the seats they hold at Westminster level.

(whilst the *Welsh* Tories are led by pretty much a nonentity)

Which is important, because then voters bypass Davies and view the Tory leader as Boris Johnson, for better or worse.

[Conservatopia]

This is anecdotal but from speaking to people in South Wales it seems like there is a huge amount of apathetic and undecided voters.  Pilchard would know better than me though.

I think this would be to the advantage of Abolish and Plaid and probably leads to more fluidity and volatality.

[EastAnglianLefty]

If true, would mean the Tories are doing still better - and Labour worse - than even at the 2019 GE. Since all of a single GB-wide poll this year has (minimally) shown this, that alone justifies a degree of scepticism. Plus aren't Drakeford's personal ratings holding up pretty well?

(whilst the *Welsh* Tories are led by pretty much a nonentity)

That very YG poll has Drakeford with strong positive approvals (whereas Johnson is comfortably underwater.) That doesn't really fit with the headline polling numbers, which is usually indicative of one or the other of those being wrong.

[Oryxslayer]

If true, would mean the Tories are doing still better - and Labour worse - than even at the 2019 GE. Since all of a single GB-wide poll this year has (minimally) shown this, that alone justifies a degree of scepticism. Plus aren't Drakeford's personal ratings holding up pretty well?

(whilst the *Welsh* Tories are led by pretty much a nonentity)

That very YG poll has Drakeford with strong positive approvals (whereas Johnson is comfortably underwater.) That doesn't really fit with the headline polling numbers, which is usually indicative of one or the other of those being wrong.

Can always like the Party but hate the guy, and vice versa of course. I'm fairly sure the UK learned this lesson in 2017, no?

[EastAnglianLefty]

If true, would mean the Tories are doing still better - and Labour worse - than even at the 2019 GE. Since all of a single GB-wide poll this year has (minimally) shown this, that alone justifies a degree of scepticism. Plus aren't Drakeford's personal ratings holding up pretty well?

(whilst the *Welsh* Tories are led by pretty much a nonentity)

That very YG poll has Drakeford with strong positive approvals (whereas Johnson is comfortably underwater.) That doesn't really fit with the headline polling numbers, which is usually indicative of one or the other of those being wrong.

Can always like the Party but hate the guy, and vice versa of course. I'm fairly sure the UK learned this lesson in 2017, no?

Not really. Corbyn's approvals went up in 2017 in lockstep with Labour's polling.

Conversely, in 2015 Labour polled much better than Ed Miliband did as an individual in the run-up to the election. One of those things ended up being more predictive than the latter.

I would also note that whilst I am personally a big fan of him, Drakeford is far from charismatic and is very obviously a Labour man. The idea that he has widespread appeal to those of fundamentally different politics is not especially convincing.

[Frodo]

From the Financial Times:

The FT poll of polls meanwhile suggests the Labour party is likely to be the biggest group in the Welsh parliament but it may find it difficult to secure an overall majority.

Members of the parliaments in Edinburgh and Cardiff are elected using a voting system based partly on proportional representation.

Constituency representatives are elected using the first past the post voting system. Additional representatives are elected based on the proportion of votes a party secures in a region comprising several constituencies. The hybrid voting system used in the Scottish and Welsh parliaments presents a high bar for a party to secure a majority of seats.

In the Welsh parliament, or senedd, 40 of its 60 members are elected from constituencies.

The Conservatives and Plaid Cymru are polling better than their results at the last election in 2016 and analysis that assumes a uniform swing in the vote suggests they could make several gains at Labour’s expense.

Labour has wielded power in Wales since devolution took effect in 1999 but its chances of securing a majority in Cardiff at the May 6 election look increasingly slim.

The remaining 20 members of the senedd are elected from party lists drawn from five regions.

Labour and Plaid Cymru are polling ahead of their results at the 2016 election, and could gain at the expense of the Liberal Democrats.

With the UK Independence party and Reform competing for pro-Brexit votes, and both groups languishing at about 3 per cent in recent polls, there is room for Conservative gains.

But polls also show rising support for Abolish the Welsh Assembly, which is likely to give the anti-devolution party enough votes for seats in the senedd.

I wasn't even aware there was a Welsh independence movement, or that anyone thought it was worth tracking:

[ElectionObserver]

Ah, an election on what I'd consider to be 'home turf'.


I think it's clear Labour will be a part of the administration after the election. Whether that's alone in a majority (unlikely) or minority (more likely), or in coalition with Plaid Cymru or the Lib Dems.
The difficulty working out seats is the AMS additional member system. Relatively small changes in the vote in the regional list could see the likes of AWAP/Reform UK/ UKIP with 8 seats or could see them with 0 if they manage to split the vote in the wrong way for them.

On polling, Welsh polling is pretty scarce and has had variable accuracy over previous elections.

Only Yougov puts out multiple polls each year and they are sponsored by ITV Wales and Cardiff University. I'd expect a couple more before election day.
Their March 16-19 constituency figures were: Lab 32. Con 30. Plaid 23. LD 5 and others 10.
Their Feb 19-22 constituency figures were: Lab 33. Con 28. Plaid 22. LD 4 and others 14.

ICM also publishes an annual poll on March 1st each year for BBC Wales.
Their constituency figures were: Lab 39. Con 24. Plaid 24. LD 4 and others 8.

Polling always gives the non-major parties a greater share on the second vote. In the real election there is always less vote splitting than polling suggests, though there is some. I think some people might think they are being asked about their second preference or something.

It should be pointed out that Yougov has been giving the Conservative party consistently bigger leads above Labour on UK-wide polls in comparison to other reputable pollsters. I'm not sure if the same thing is happening here. It did in 2016 when Yougov were predicting gains for the Conservatives and they actually lost seats.

[beesley]

https://www.flintshire.gov.uk/en/PDFFiles/Elections-and-Electoral-Registration/Notice-of-elections-2021/Senedd-SOPN-and-NOP-Delyn-Constituency.pdf

Have a look at the address for the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Gwlad (a Welsh separatist party) candidate

[ElectionObserver]

https://www.flintshire.gov.uk/en/PDFFiles/Elections-and-Electoral-Registration/Notice-of-elections-2021/Senedd-SOPN-and-NOP-Delyn-Constituency.pdf

Have a look at the address for the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Candidate.

There is no Abolish candidate.

I think you are talking about the Gwlad candidate. They are a minor party which strongly supports independence.

[beesley]

https://www.flintshire.gov.uk/en/PDFFiles/Elections-and-Electoral-Registration/Notice-of-elections-2021/Senedd-SOPN-and-NOP-Delyn-Constituency.pdf

Have a look at the address for the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Candidate.

There is no Abolish candidate.

I think you are talking about the Gwlad candidate. They are a minor party which strongly supports independence.

What actually happened is I pasted the wrong URL, and it turns out I've found something more egregious! The original post intended to show an Abolish candidate from England, and not near the Welsh Border either...

[ElectionObserver]

https://www.flintshire.gov.uk/en/PDFFiles/Elections-and-Electoral-Registration/Notice-of-elections-2021/Senedd-SOPN-and-NOP-Delyn-Constituency.pdf

Have a look at the address for the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Candidate.

What actually happened is I pasted the wrong URL, and it turns out I've found something more egregious! The original post intended to show an Abolish candidate from England, and not near the Welsh Border either...

Quite a few of the Gwlad candidates live outside of Wales. God knows where they find them.

It's the same for several other parties though.

[Conservatopia]

Are Gwlad that right-wing indy party that had a little bit of sucess back in about 2009?

[YL]

Are Gwlad that right-wing indy party that had a little bit of sucess back in about 2009?

No, they're a new party, founded in 2018, originally called "Ein Gwlad", later "Gwlad Gwlad" and now just "Gwlad".

[Conservatopia]

Are Gwlad that right-wing indy party that had a little bit of sucess back in about 2009?

No, they're a new party, founded in 2018, originally called "Ein Gwlad", later "Gwlad Gwlad" and now just "Gwlad".

You're right.  However they are on the right which is unusual for a nationalist party.

[CumbrianLefty]

Are Gwlad that right-wing indy party that had a little bit of sucess back in about 2009?

No, they're a new party, founded in 2018, originally called "Ein Gwlad", later "Gwlad Gwlad" and now just "Gwlad".

You're right.  However they are on the right which is unusual for a nationalist party.

Tbf they self-describe as "centrist" IIRC, but yes they do have some members who are right wing.

[Conservatopia]

For what it's worth Opinium have a poll out.  I'll just give the seat predictions for speed.  Changes are from last election.

Labour: 29 (-)
Conservatives: 19 (+8)
Plaid: 10 (-2)
Lib Dem: 1 (-)
UKIP: 1 (-6)

Bizarrely Abolish were not included in the poll despite having a very goid chance of getting about 4 seats.

Furthermore this poll is unusual showing Labour very high and Plaid actually losing seats while most other polls have Plaid picking up about 4 seatsat the expense of Labour.

[beesley]

I wouldn't put much stock in the exact figures in the seat projection, though I think the general picture is clear - Labour will remain first, the Tories second with possible constituency gains, no surge for Plaid, and the smaller parties scrapping for maybe one seat per region. Given the collapse of UKIP it stands to reason that Labour would hold up a bit better.

[Conservatopia]

I wouldn't put much stock in the exact figures in the seat projection, though I think the general picture is clear - Labour will remain first, the Tories second with possible constituency gains, no surge for Plaid, and the smaller parties scrapping for maybe one seat per region. Given the collapse of UKIP it stands to reason that Labour would hold up a bit better.

Sure - that was my point really.  It's a naff poll but broadly confirms to overall trend.

I think the result will be something like

Labour 26 (-3)
Conservatives 17 (+6)
Plaid 13 (+1)
Abolish 4 (+4)
Lib Dems 1 (-)
UKIP 0 (-7)

Which would make coalition maths rather interesting...