Senedd Cymru (Welsh Parliament) election, 6 May 2021

[Oryxslayer]

First list results:

South West Wales: 2 Con, 2 PC. +1 PC from UKIP.

North Wales: 2 Con, 1 Lab, 1 PC. +1 Con +1 Lab from UKIP.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Lib Dems lose Brecon and Radnorshire to the Conservatives.

One of the least surprising results. Kirsty Williams was something of an electoral powerhouse, and judging by how well Welsh Labour are doing, the LDs would have done well to use more of her in their campaign (the Drakeford government was technically a Lab-Lib-Ind coalition).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

She was (is) absurdly personally popular in parts of that constituency.

[Logical]

Labour holds Vale of Glamorgan and wins 2 seats on the Mid and West Wales regional list. That's 30, 1 short of a majority.

[Astatine]

Lib Dems lose Brecon and Radnorshire to the Conservatives. Terrible results across the board for them, but I'm wondering if they've done just enough to sneak back in on the Mid Wales list.

Seems like they managed to win one seat.

[Pilchard]

but I'm wondering if they've done just enough to sneak back in on the Mid Wales list.

This appears to have happened - the list seats fall 2 Labour, 1 Plaid, 1 Lib Dem, which means another Abolish failure on the list!

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

but I'm wondering if they've done just enough to sneak back in on the Mid Wales list.

This appears to have happened - the list seats fall 2 Labour, 1 Plaid, 1 Lib Dem, which means another Abolish failure on the list!

This means Labour will have at least 30 seats, so the current coalition can and probably will continue.

Can we get an F in the chat for Adam Price?

[mileslunn]

Looks like in Wales, Labour vote held up much better than in England.  In particular asides Vale of Clwyd which was a nail biter, it appears Labour held most of the red wall seats they lost in general election so any reason for this and is Welsh Labour perhaps a model for a revival in England?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Looks like in Wales, Labour vote held up much better than in England.  In particular asides Vale of Clwyd which was a nail biter, it appears Labour held most of the red wall seats they lost in general election so any reason for this and is Welsh Labour perhaps a model for a revival in England?

Mark Drakeford is better known than Keir Starmer in Wales. His government got to take much more credit for the coronavirus response/vaccine rollout than English and Scottish Labour did. The SNP also seems to doing relatively well despite its scandals - perhaps people throughout the country are just getting behind their state government, or Westminster in the absence of one.

[ElectionObserver]

The count has finished for the night.

The running total is
Lab: 30
Con: 12
PC: 9
LD: 1

My guess is that the remaining 8 seats will go 4 to Con and 4 to PC.
That would mean Lab+1, Con+5, PC+1, LD+/-0 and UKIP-7.
This is just my educated guess though and it might be slightly different.

Labour has an effective majority if Elin Jones remains as presiding officer.

Looks like in Wales, Labour vote held up much better than in England.  In particular asides Vale of Clwyd which was a nail biter, it appears Labour held most of the red wall seats they lost in general election so any reason for this and is Welsh Labour perhaps a model for a revival in England?

I think that's a massive understatement. Labour is Wales held up *MUCH* better than Labour did in England.

The North Wales seats were supposed to vote similarly to the red wall English seats. In the end , they voted far more for Labour than their English counterparts. Labour were so close in Vale of Clwyd and probably would have held on if the incumbent hadn't retired.

Based on English numbers, the Conservatives would have easily taken Delyn, Clwyd South, Wrexham and Vale of Glamorgan when Labour actually advanced in most. They would have also been very competitive in several other seats which weren't in anyway close.

[IceAgeComing]

The key difference is that the elections were totally different: in England it was local elections that are broadly (although not exclusively; local factors do play a role and more of one than people think sometimes) judgements on the performance of the Westminster government and that is the impact.  Elections for the Devolved Parliaments are elections fought on their own turf: and in Wales it was Labour that had the pandemic record to fight on and Labour that likely benefitted from any pandemic-related boost which would have gone to the Tories in England.  Are there things that they could benefit from looking at?  I imagine so but the fact that an incumbent government increased its number of seats at a time which is clearly very good for incumbent governments that have been perceived to have handled the pandemic fairly well (which is a global trend) is a factor that needs to be considered as a major factor.  I suspect that if this was a General Election we'd be looking at some different results.

Also Vale of Clwyd is not a "Red Wall" seat: its a historic marginal and would have been for decades.  Its why the Tories gaining it was not surprising: its a place they always work on.

The apparent underperformance of the trio of anti-Senedd right-wing parties (AWA, Reform, UKIP) is notable especially the first two.  I thought that the likely scenario would be that they'd split the votes to the point where none would get in but the fact is that even if you combined the three (which wouldn't be how things would go) they probably wouldn't get into the Parliament: quite clearly there's no appetite for the elimination of devolution.  That's clearly helped Labour since its gained them a couple of list seats and going from 28 to 30 is significant since it makes their life a lot easier - they can go as a single party government pretty easily since they can probably always find someone to go with them on a certain issue.  Its also saved the Liberal Democrats from extinction and they probably don't mind this situation since it gives them the balance of power.  Looking at the regions yet to declare they'll stay on 30: would be shocking if they got a list seat from one of the last two regions.

[ElectionObserver]

Mark Drakeford is better known than Keir Starmer in Wales. His government got to take much more credit for the coronavirus response/vaccine rollout than English and Scottish Labour did. The SNP also seems to doing relatively well despite its scandals - perhaps people throughout the country are just getting behind their state government, or Westminster in the absence of one.

I think this point can not be underestimated. In opinion polling before 2019, the UK Labour leader was consistently better known than the Welsh Labour leader. Since Covid, Drakeford's numbers are basically the same as Boris Johnson in terms of numbers who can give an opinion and notably higher than Keir Starmer.

Never has a Welsh politician been so well known.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Mark Drakeford is better known than Keir Starmer in Wales. His government got to take much more credit for the coronavirus response/vaccine rollout than English and Scottish Labour did. The SNP also seems to doing relatively well despite its scandals - perhaps people throughout the country are just getting behind their state government, or Westminster in the absence of one.

I think this point can not be underestimated. In opinion polling before 2019, the UK Labour leader was consistently better known than the Welsh Labour leader. Since Covid, Drakeford's numbers are basically the same as Boris Johnson in terms of numbers who can give an opinion and notably higher than Keir Starmer.

Never has a Welsh politician been so well known.

So, basically Drakeford’s popularity is a result of doing a good job with Covid as opposed to something really specific about him? As in it’s something we’ve seen around the world with incumbents that had a good response to Covid. Without sidetracking too much, I think that part of the thing with Starmer is that we haven’t seen him run a general election campaign.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its a major factor yes, I wouldn't say it was the only thing.

[beesley]

I'm very pleased to see that Abolish have lost votes compared to last time. Propel and Gwlad cost Plaid a list seat in North Wales too - two good results for the few people with my ideology.

So, basically Drakeford’s popularity is a result of doing a good job with Covid as opposed to something really specific about him? As in it’s something we’ve seen around the world with incumbents that had a good response to Covid. Without sidetracking too much, I think that part of the thing with Starmer is that we haven’t seen him run a general election campaign.

I think Drakeford's name recognition, airtime, and his handling of the pandemic was a bigger asset than this, but he also is far less polarising than Adam Price and Andrew RT Davies.

[CumbrianLefty]

In the end, Jane Dodds squeezed into the list votes and the LibDems narrowly avoided elimination.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Was Wood's defeat a result of Plaid moving hard independence in a way that does not really resonate in Rhondda?

[beesley]

Was Wood's defeat a result of Plaid moving hard independence in a way that does not really resonate in Rhondda?

Probably more to do with the fact that the Rhondda is a Labour area normally and all of the idiosyncratic results from last time seem to have reverted to the mean/with Labour slightly better than that. See also Blaenau Gwent, Caerphilly, Llanelli. But I agree that Plaid's platform for this election wasn't the best fit.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In 2016 she was the party leader with all the publicity that brings (substantial leadership bounces have become common in Senedd/Assembly elections), there was discontent with the local council over various issues, and she was running against Leighton Andrews who, though initially a popular figure locally had become a massive lightening rod as the Jones administration used him as its general 'minister for unpopular decisions', a role that he carried out with a sharpness that alienated people.

[CumbrianLefty]

The wailing and rendering of garments re Wood's defeat on Twitter is genuinely amusing.

[Pilchard]

South Wales East list seats go Con x2, Plaid x2, and I can finally say we've got rid of both Neil Hamilton and Mark Reckless!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

South Wales East list seats go Con x2, Plaid x2, and I can finally say we've got rid of both Neil Hamilton and Mark Reckless!

Oh no!
Anyway...

[Pilchard]

Last region to declare, South Wales Central, goes Con x2, Plaid x2.

Final result is Labour 30 (+1), Con 16 (+5), Plaid 13 (+1), Lib Dem 1 (=)

[beesley]

No seats for Abolish is a very, very pleasing result.

[Keep Calm and ...]

Final results
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1391016024112340997