Senedd Cymru (Welsh Parliament) election, 6 May 2021

[CumbrianLefty]

If true, would mean the Tories are doing still better - and Labour worse - than even at the 2019 GE. Since all of a single GB-wide poll this year has (minimally) shown this, that alone justifies a degree of scepticism. Plus aren't Drakeford's personal ratings holding up pretty well?

(whilst the *Welsh* Tories are led by pretty much a nonentity)

[CumbrianLefty]

Are Gwlad that right-wing indy party that had a little bit of sucess back in about 2009?

No, they're a new party, founded in 2018, originally called "Ein Gwlad", later "Gwlad Gwlad" and now just "Gwlad".

You're right.  However they are on the right which is unusual for a nationalist party.

Tbf they self-describe as "centrist" IIRC, but yes they do have some members who are right wing.

[CumbrianLefty]

Don't think it was ever *seriously* considered last time round - for a start Leanne Wood being the PC leader then made it a total non starter. Post 2007 was when the (anti-Labour) "rainbow coalition" came close, but not close enough, to happening.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think that zero seats for the LibDems is around a 50/50 possibility at least.

(which would be truly "historic" in several respects)

[CumbrianLefty]

If that happens, might be worth recalling that just a few more votes for Plaid in Blaenau Gwent and Llanelli back in 2016 could well have meant she was still leader now. Politics can be a brutal business.

[CumbrianLefty]

Con hold Montgomeryshire with 48%. Lib Dems drop to third - shockingly bad result.

Not much hope for the latter in B&R based on that.

[CumbrianLefty]

Ann Jones might well have held on had she stood again.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its a major factor yes, I wouldn't say it was the only thing.

[CumbrianLefty]

In the end, Jane Dodds squeezed into the list votes and the LibDems narrowly avoided elimination.

[CumbrianLefty]

The wailing and rendering of garments re Wood's defeat on Twitter is genuinely amusing.

[CumbrianLefty]

Mark Drakeford is better known than Keir Starmer in Wales. His government got to take much more credit for the coronavirus response/vaccine rollout than English and Scottish Labour did. The SNP also seems to doing relatively well despite its scandals - perhaps people throughout the country are just getting behind their state government, or Westminster in the absence of one.

I think this point can not be underestimated. In opinion polling before 2019, the UK Labour leader was consistently better known than the Welsh Labour leader. Since Covid, Drakeford's numbers are basically the same as Boris Johnson in terms of numbers who can give an opinion and notably higher than Keir Starmer.

Never has a Welsh politician been so well known.

This make drakeford a future leadership candidate?

No

Lovely guy, though - and totally deserves this success.

[CumbrianLefty]

Would be interested in the highest/lowest constituency shares for the main parties here.