Senedd Cymru (Welsh Parliament) election, 6 May 2021

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

South Wales, traditional working-class heartland, turning its back on the Woke Left Labour Party.

Oh hang on.

[Flyersfan232]

Mark Drakeford is better known than Keir Starmer in Wales. His government got to take much more credit for the coronavirus response/vaccine rollout than English and Scottish Labour did. The SNP also seems to doing relatively well despite its scandals - perhaps people throughout the country are just getting behind their state government, or Westminster in the absence of one.

I think this point can not be underestimated. In opinion polling before 2019, the UK Labour leader was consistently better known than the Welsh Labour leader. Since Covid, Drakeford's numbers are basically the same as Boris Johnson in terms of numbers who can give an opinion and notably higher than Keir Starmer.

Never has a Welsh politician been so well known.

This make drakeford a future leadership candidate?

[Geoffrey Howe]

Mark Drakeford is better known than Keir Starmer in Wales. His government got to take much more credit for the coronavirus response/vaccine rollout than English and Scottish Labour did. The SNP also seems to doing relatively well despite its scandals - perhaps people throughout the country are just getting behind their state government, or Westminster in the absence of one.

I think this point can not be underestimated. In opinion polling before 2019, the UK Labour leader was consistently better known than the Welsh Labour leader. Since Covid, Drakeford's numbers are basically the same as Boris Johnson in terms of numbers who can give an opinion and notably higher than Keir Starmer.

Never has a Welsh politician been so well known.

This make drakeford a future leadership candidate?

I think it's a strong incumbency effect around COVID. I doubt he'd go down well in England.

[brucejoel99]

Final results
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1391016024112340997

So based on these numbers, are we just gonna see a continuation of the Lib-Lab "coalition," such as it technically is one?

[beesley]

Final results
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1391016024112340997

So based on these numbers, are we just gonna see a continuation of the Lib-Lab "coalition," such as it technically is one?

Probably not a coalition, especially given the fact the LD MS is different to last time, but I suspect there will be an unwritten agreement in effect with Labour turning to her for support. Worth noting that in 2016 the coalition only got them to 30 and Lord Elis Thomas joined the government later on in the term. I assume the Llywydd and Diprwy Llywydd will be Elin Jones and a new Labour and neither are allowed to participate in votes.

[ElectionObserver]

This make drakeford a future leadership candidate?

Of UK Labour?

Definitely not.

I don't want to sound unkind, but...
He's almost 70 and has the charisma of the dullest polytechnic (or community college for you Americans) lecturer. I don't think he has any ambition to go for it whatsoever either.

One advantage he would have in England is that he comes across as old-school Labour rather than the modern metropolitan Keir Starmer which is going down like a cup of cold sick in some of Labour's traditional heartlands.

If you want to see somebody outside of Westminsiter who clearly wants the job, look at Manchester Metro mayor Andy Burnham.



On the government, my feeling is Labour will go for a minority administration. They can easily get support from the single Lib Dem or Plaid Cymru on an issue by issue level and won't have any great difficulty putting forward a legislative programme.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Mark Drakeford is better known than Keir Starmer in Wales. His government got to take much more credit for the coronavirus response/vaccine rollout than English and Scottish Labour did. The SNP also seems to doing relatively well despite its scandals - perhaps people throughout the country are just getting behind their state government, or Westminster in the absence of one.

I think this point can not be underestimated. In opinion polling before 2019, the UK Labour leader was consistently better known than the Welsh Labour leader. Since Covid, Drakeford's numbers are basically the same as Boris Johnson in terms of numbers who can give an opinion and notably higher than Keir Starmer.

Never has a Welsh politician been so well known.

Major Neil Kinnock Erasure

[Estrella]

Mark Drakeford is better known than Keir Starmer in Wales. His government got to take much more credit for the coronavirus response/vaccine rollout than English and Scottish Labour did. The SNP also seems to doing relatively well despite its scandals - perhaps people throughout the country are just getting behind their state government, or Westminster in the absence of one.

I think this point can not be underestimated. In opinion polling before 2019, the UK Labour leader was consistently better known than the Welsh Labour leader. Since Covid, Drakeford's numbers are basically the same as Boris Johnson in terms of numbers who can give an opinion and notably higher than Keir Starmer.

Never has a Welsh politician been so well known.

Major Neil Kinnock Erasure

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Mark Drakeford is fantastic!

[ElectionObserver]

Labour is, as I expected, going to go into minority government with 30/60 seats.

[CumbrianLefty]

Mark Drakeford is better known than Keir Starmer in Wales. His government got to take much more credit for the coronavirus response/vaccine rollout than English and Scottish Labour did. The SNP also seems to doing relatively well despite its scandals - perhaps people throughout the country are just getting behind their state government, or Westminster in the absence of one.

I think this point can not be underestimated. In opinion polling before 2019, the UK Labour leader was consistently better known than the Welsh Labour leader. Since Covid, Drakeford's numbers are basically the same as Boris Johnson in terms of numbers who can give an opinion and notably higher than Keir Starmer.

Never has a Welsh politician been so well known.

This make drakeford a future leadership candidate?

No

Lovely guy, though - and totally deserves this success.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Just the facts]

Mark Drakeford is better known than Keir Starmer in Wales. His government got to take much more credit for the coronavirus response/vaccine rollout than English and Scottish Labour did. The SNP also seems to doing relatively well despite its scandals - perhaps people throughout the country are just getting behind their state government, or Westminster in the absence of one.

I think this point can not be underestimated. In opinion polling before 2019, the UK Labour leader was consistently better known than the Welsh Labour leader. Since Covid, Drakeford's numbers are basically the same as Boris Johnson in terms of numbers who can give an opinion and notably higher than Keir Starmer.

Never has a Welsh politician been so well known.

Major Neil Kinnock Erasure

David Lloyd George would also like to have a word with him (born in Manchester "by accident" but still Welsh).

[CumbrianLefty]

Would be interested in the highest/lowest constituency shares for the main parties here.

[beesley]

Would be interested in the highest/lowest constituency shares for the main parties here.

Labour: Highest was 61.5% in MT and Rhymney, lowest was 10.9% in Ceredigion
Conservative: Highest was 48.1% in Montgomeryshire, lowest was 6.4% in Rhondda (about 3x their vote share last time!)
Plaid: Highest was 63.3% in Arfon, lowest was 5.8% in Monmouth
LD: Highest was 27.8% in Brecon and Radnorshire, lowest was 0.9% in Rhondda (again an increase from last time!)

[Frodo]

Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru have agreed to form a governing majority, though they stress this is not a coalition agreement per se:

Welsh Government and Plaid Cymru co-operation agreement ‘huge step forward’

And the commentary on the agreement:

What does the Labour-Plaid Cymru deal mean for Wales?