UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[NYDem]

Made the mistake of reading some of the linked Twitter threads, and was reminded of how much better Atlas is than most other sites for discussing politics. Bunch of morons going on about how there was no swing to Labour in absolute vote count and how conservatives only lost because of turnout.

These people have no idea how elections work.

[JimJamUK]

Made the mistake of reading some of the linked Twitter threads, and was reminded of how much better Atlas is than most other sites for discussing politics. Bunch of morons going on about how there was no swing to Labour in absolute vote count and it conservatives only lost because of turnout.

The fun thing is you genuinely can’t tell whether such people voted Conservative or Labour at the last election!

[Blair]

It’s really really bizarre to see it take off as a mainstream talking point- it has never been a measure that has been used to measure by election success!

The one thing that a lot of those people aren’t ready for is if labour win 420+ seats on election night- you would have thought they would want to face up to reality! Labour did in 2009 and it’s the reason why the result wasn’t a wash out… and why we have the Equality Act

[YL]

Dudley West, 1992 General Election: Con 34729, Lab 28940, Lib Dem 7446

Dudley West, Dec 1994 by-election: Lab 28400, Con 7706, Lib Dem 3154, ...

"Labour actually lost 540 votes. It's just Tory voters staying at home; they're not shifting to Labour."

[Flyersfan232]

The Tories have now officially broken the 1992-1997 parliament’s post-1970 record for government losses in by-elections (ten) and there have now been twelve changes of hands overall, again the most since 1966-1970 (will of course be thirteen when Rochdale comes in in a couple of weeks time). Almost no chance of the 1966-1970 parliament’s post-war record (fifteen government seats lost and sixteen seats changing hands in total) being broken in the remaining lifetime of this parliament, but nonetheless a creditable effort.

If you count Rochdale (even if Ali wins) then Blackpool South could make it 14 if there isn't a May GE. Though yes, any more than that is now starting to look a bit of a stretch.

whats the all time record

[Flyersfan232]

For those living in the U.K here, if Sunak promised to change the election reporting so that it was reported poll by poll rather than only the final result announced, would you vote for Conservative?

I'm asking strictly hypothetically, I don't think Sunak has made any such promise.

Of course, we'd lose the Monster Raving Loony Party candidate standing with all the other candidates, then, but, can't have everything.

sunak should be put on trial for treason if he tries that

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

"Labour actually lost 540 votes. It's just Tory voters staying at home; they're not shifting to Labour."

Come to think of it, I'm surprised that idiot from Massachusetts hasn't shown up in this thread to make this point.

[CumbrianLefty]

Dudley West, 1992 General Election: Con 34729, Lab 28940, Lib Dem 7446

Dudley West, Dec 1994 by-election: Lab 28400, Con 7706, Lib Dem 3154, ...

"Labour actually lost 540 votes. It's just Tory voters staying at home; they're not shifting to Labour."

Whilst this was the days before social media, I definitely remember at least a few Tories using pretty much that line - the phrase "no actual enthusiasm for Labour" certainly got an airing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Incidentally, boundary changes are very favourable for Labour at Wellingborough: the constituency loses its Western fringe (the most Conservative part as a rule) and gains Irthingborough which is Labour-leaning in an even year.

[Blair]

It’s interesting how many people on Twitter who are interested in politics have shown that they’ve never ran a committee room or vote count (even in fantasyland type places!) as there’s a constant belief that each party automatically starts the election (whether a by election or a general) with all the voters they had in the last - people were claiming labour only got 107 new votes in Wellingborough!

But it’s rubbish- voters obviously move, die, change their views, or don’t bother voting. It’s so strange how many people who claim to follow politics don’t actually understand one of the most fundamental parts of it

[Devout Centrist]

It’s interesting how many people on Twitter who are interested in Twitter have shown that they’ve never ran a committee room or vote count (even in fantasyland type places!) as there’s a constant belief that each party automatically starts the election (whether a by election or a general) with all the voters they had in the last - people were claiming labour only got 107 new votes in Wellingborough!

But it’s rubbish- voters obviously move, die, change their views, or don’t bother voting. It’s so strange how many people who claim to follow politics don’t actually understand one of the most fundamental parts of it

Not just random people too, the head of *Ipsos* was claiming that! Absolutely mental.

https://twitter.com/benatipsos/status/1758373305642291356

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Average British political tweet regarding an election result is like this:

OMG, a party I don't like won this seat by 0.000000009%. Everyone who resides in this seat must have something wrong with them. Also, if Party X had stood down in favour of Party Y, then Party Y would have won, as the people who vote for Party X and Party Y all believe the same things and they are all decent people (even though no one in this seat is decent). Also, this (a ward result in some obscure part of the country) proves that the polls are completely wrong.

[YL]

Well, here are my thoughts on each of the constituencies which have changed hands in by-elections this Parliament.

Hartlepool A lot has changed since that one. Based on current polling I'd expect a straightforward Labour regain, though I do feel that if the Tories recovered into hung parliament territory they might hold on here. There are no boundary changes.

Chesham & Amersham Boundary changes remove some relatively rural territory around Great Missenden, and add Gerrards Cross (upmarket and traditionally very Tory commuter town) and Hazlemere (a rather boring High Wycombe suburb). I suspect this harms the Lib Dems a little, mainly because it brings in people who didn't vote in the by-election, but on current polling I doubt the Tories get enough to win it back, given that it'll be very obvious who to vote for to beat them. There is a Buckinghamshire council by-election pending in Hazlemere which might be worth keeping an eye on.

North Shropshire Anecdotally Helen Morgan seems to be a popular MP, and if anything the minor boundary changes help her, as the areas removed are likely to be relatively strong for the Tories. On current polling I think she holds on, though this is not obviously a natural seat for the modern Lib Dems.

Wakefield The constituency is split in two. The parts of Wakefield proper in the seat go to Wakefield & Rothwell, which would have been low hanging fruit for Labour even without the by-election, while the rest goes to Ossett & Denby Dale, which is considerably more challenging but still winnable. Simon Lightwood has made the obvious choice, and given the split I doubt the by-election will add much to Labour's chances in O & DD, but in a landslide they're winning it anyway.

Tiverton & Honiton This is another case where the seat has been split. Some goes to Tiverton & Minehead, which I suspect will go Tory, but the bulk joins with parts of the current East Devon to form Honiton & Sidmouth, and Richard Foord is standing there. I think Honiton & Sidmouth is a bit unpredictable: there's no Lib Dem tradition in the added areas, which have been Tory since 1835, but Claire Wright's independent campaign suggests some latent non-Tory potential which the Lib Dems might be able to exploit. Still I think this is a relatively likely Tory win.

Selby & Ainsty Labour are helped by the boundary changes, which remove the "Ainsty" area and Tadcaster and add the usually Labour (at least locally) Kippax & Methley ward of Leeds, and if they're winning a majority I suspect Keir Mather holds on here.

Somerton & Frome This is another one with major boundary changes. Sarah Dyke is standing in the new Glastonbury & Somerton, which would look like a plausible Lib Dem gain even without the by-election, and I think she wins. The other seat, Frome & East Somerset, is complicated, but possibly the by-election will help Lib Dems claim that they're the challengers.

Rutherglen & Hamilton West The new Rutherglen would be one of the most obvious Labour targets in Scotland even without the by-election. Michael Shanks should hold on here.

Mid Bedfordshire The Labour winner Alistair Strathern lives in Shefford, which is being moved into the new Hitchin seat, which looked a more plausible Labour gain, and he is standing there; perhaps his incumbency will help Labour a little, though he's only the incumbent in a minority of the seat. The rump Mid Beds looks challenging for Labour even in a landslide, though the Tory performance in the by-election was so awful as to give pause for thought.

Tamworth Boundary changes are fairly minor. The Tories were on over 40% even in the by-election (the only one of their losses this is true of) and I suspect they will win this back.

Wellingborough The constituency gains Irthlingborough from Corby, and loses Wollaston and Bozeat to South Northamptonshire and rural parts of Earls Barton ward to Daventry, and is renamed as Wellingborough & Rushden. The changes are not major but help Labour, and while the swing needed from 2019 is still big you wonder how quickly the Conservatives will be able to recover from their atrocious performance in the by-election. At the moment I would guess that Gen Kitchen will hold on.

Kingswood This constituency is effectively abolished. The largest part, including Kingswood proper, goes to the revived Bristol North East; these parts are the most Labour parts of the seat, the Bristol wards included are also mostly Labour-inclined, and the new seat is estimated as having been comfortably Labour even in 2019. (Though presumably not in 1983 or 1987.)  Damien Egan had alreadby been selected as the Labour candidate there before Skidmore's resignation. The second largest part goes to North East Somerset & Hanham, where the Tory candidate will be Jacob Rees-Mogg, and I doubt the by-election will have much effect on Labour's chances of winning that. A smaller area goes to Filton & Bradley Stoke, and again I don't see the by-election changing much.

[MillennialModerate]

"Labour actually lost 540 votes. It's just Tory voters staying at home; they're not shifting to Labour."

Come to think of it, I'm surprised that idiot from Massachusetts hasn't shown up in this thread to make this point.

Now Now, there’s a 1 in 2 chance you’re talking about me - but seeing as you didn’t make any specific reference I’ll assume you’re talking about others 

[CumbrianLefty]

Also, this (a ward result in some obscure part of the country) proves that the polls are completely wrong.

We've had a *lot* of that in the last few years

[Torrain]

Rochdale chaos update:
https://twitter.com/HenryRiley1/status/1759587904035180555

[YL]

They have, of course, suspended him.

The local Greens have endorsed Mark Coleman (the Just Stop Oil supporting Anglican priest standing as an Independent). Labour, of course, haven't endorsed anyone, though there are reports of individual Labour members supporting various candidates. I presume these two parties won't enforce their rules against campaigning against a nominated candidate, even if the actual wording of the rules (which I haven't checked in either case) suggests they should.

[Oryxslayer]

All this chaos is making me wonder if the end result will just be a normal-ish result,  cause those voters who bother to participate will be under the impression of "Well if everyone sucks..."

Now the most likely result, at least in my eyes, remains a turnout hilariously far below anything comparable in recent memory, and the remaining electorate is dominated by the minority of constituents who actually like Galloway. But it would be interesting if all the candidate troubles cause voter behavior to "circle back to the start." Of course this won't stop the Labour candidate being immediately out of the caucus, like Kevin Voung who somehow still won for the Canadian libs in 2021.

[Flyersfan232]

Does the Rochdale seat change much in redistribution? Presumably no matter who wins the byelection its almost certain Labour wins the seat in the general election and this byelection will tell us absolutely nothing about national trends.

From Labour's POV what is the least bad outcome? Ali still winning under the Labour label but having to sit as an independent? Danczuk winning and giving Reform UK a seat? Galloway winning? A Tory coming up the middle? Could the Lib Dems fill the vacuum, they held this seat many years ago

The Lib Dems are tainted by *who* held this seat many years ago.

explain

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Does the Rochdale seat change much in redistribution? Presumably no matter who wins the byelection its almost certain Labour wins the seat in the general election and this byelection will tell us absolutely nothing about national trends.

From Labour's POV what is the least bad outcome? Ali still winning under the Labour label but having to sit as an independent? Danczuk winning and giving Reform UK a seat? Galloway winning? A Tory coming up the middle? Could the Lib Dems fill the vacuum, they held this seat many years ago

The Lib Dems are tainted by *who* held this seat many years ago.

explain

From Wikipedia’s article on Cyril Smith:

Sir Cyril Richard Smith MBE MStJ DL (28 June 1928 – 3 September 2010) was a British Liberal Party politician who served as Member of Parliament (MP) for Rochdale from 1972 to 1992.

…

In 2012, after his death and following allegations of child sexual abuse, the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) formally admitted that Smith should have been charged with such abuse during his lifetime. In November 2012, Greater Manchester Police (GMP) Assistant Chief Constable Steve Heywood said there was "overwhelming evidence" that young boys were sexually and physically abused by Smith.

In April 2014, it was reported that there had been 144 complaints against Smith from victims as young as eight years of age. Attempts to prosecute Smith had been blocked. Public authorities—including Rochdale Borough Council, the police, and intelligence services–have been implicated in covering up Smith's alleged crimes. In 2015, it emerged that Smith had been arrested in the early 1980s in relation to some of these offences; however, a high-level cover-up reportedly led to destruction of evidence, Smith's rapid release within hours, and the invocation of the Official Secrets Act to prevent the investigating officers from discussing the matter.

[Torrain]

Scott Benton, (Blackpool South) has lost his appeal against a 35 day Commons suspension, after a lobbying/corruption sting.

Benton only had a 3,690 majority over Labour, so there’s little suspense about what happens next.

[YL]

Scott Benton, (Blackpool South) has lost his appeal against a 35 day Commons suspension, after a lobbying/corruption sting.

Benton only had a 3,690 majority over Labour, so there’s little suspense about what happens next.

Assuming he doesn’t resign, it takes two weeks to organise the recall petition and then it’s open for six more, so the seat won’t actually be vacant until mid April at the earliest and it’s already too late for a 2 May by-election. They might even try to leave it vacant until an autumn General Election, though I think that would go down badly.

[CumbrianLefty]

Unless there is actually a May GE, it is very likely this byelection happens if the recall passes. I know there is chatter about Tory whips trying to block it (there was about Wellingborough and Kingswood as well) but it would look especially bad if voters there had effectively asked for it to happen.

[Duke of York]

Unless there is actually a May GE, it is very likely this byelection happens if the recall passes. I know there is chatter about Tory whips trying to block it (there was about Wellingborough and Kingswood as well) but it would look especially bad if voters there had effectively asked for it to happen.

a may election seems unlikely at this point.

[CumbrianLefty]

Unless there is actually a May GE, it is very likely this byelection happens if the recall passes. I know there is chatter about Tory whips trying to block it (there was about Wellingborough and Kingswood as well) but it would look especially bad if voters there had effectively asked for it to happen.

a may election esteems unlikely at this point.

There are still some trying to talk it up.